Quick Reminder: Brad Brownell Not Really Much of an X's/O's Guy on Offense

I'm not sure where the rumor started. I just remember reading it in the blogs somewhere, and then suddenly it everyone seemed to accept it as the gospel truth. Seriously, its almost like this idea was planted by the front office and bam! pretty soon everyone is a stenographer.

In an effort to inject some data into the assessment of Brownell's hiring, I took a quick look at the statistical profiles of his past squads (this was back when I had the time for this sort of thing...) No doubt he's led some great defenses, but on offense his team finished in the top 3 in his conference only once--last year (#3!!). Other than that, his offenses have hovered right around average in both the Colonial and Horizon Leagues. Not exactly the dominant mark of a young coaching wizard. In fact, Brownell's overall statistical team profiles eerily resemble the not-so-dearly departed Oliver Purnell, despite using starkly different strategies to construct stingy defenses and middling offenses.

The Michigan game is disheartening, but it reinforces my early views that we are on a rocky road this season with our best hopes likely lying in an 8-8 ACC season. I believe we have latent offensive talent on this team, but without a coaching staff capable of scheming to fit or develop the talent we are in for a long season of crappy offensive displays. Kind of like the last several years, but less frantic. Much, much less frantic. Glacial.

Clemben Addition: This is the perfect game to shut up Tanner Smith enthusiasts. 1-7 and 0-5 from 3 pt. land. 4 fouls and beat to the basket on multiple occasions (not that anyone was rotating on defense so its not all his fault). We really need Noel Johnson to step up and take half of Tanner's minutes or ACC play will get ugly. Lucky for us Wake and GT stink. Miami, Virginia Tech and FSU are underachieving. Roy Williams has Harrison Barnes and can't right the ship (I love that Barnes was picked as a preaseason All-American??, would have been a top draft pick in NBA but is struggling in college). Maryland and NC State I don't know enough about but are beatable and only Virginia seems to have improved much since last year. Yes, Duke is back to being unstoppable but our schedule is favorable.

This loss to Michigan at home on national TV really does sting though. We have to hope that Michigan continues to improve in the Big Ten. We really need to win our next two games to stay in the NCAA hunt if we go 8-8 in ACC play. Losing to South Carolina in the 3 major sports this year is unacceptable Barker. Don't let the door hit you on the way out Terry Don. How about we get an athletic director with a normal name for a change? That would mean Billy D'Andrea would be disqualified. Hooray!

One thing to remember is that expanded brackets (which I absolutely abhor--64 was a great number) might really benefit us this year. Still unless this team improves fundamentally, its going to be a long year. Glacial sounds about right.

Let Murphy Holloway Come To Clemson

This is seriously outrageous. Ole Miss has decided to deny Murphy Holloway from transferring to Clemson. Of course they have every right to not allow him to transfer to another in conference, SEC school but there is no merit in denying him his ability to transfer to be closer to home. Did Duke reject the transfer to Memphis? Will Roy deny the transfer of the Wear brothers(which makes NC's frontline look even thinner next year) to a non-ACC school?

This is just some petty, weak sauce from Ole Miss but they aren't entirely to blame. I think we should send some serious disgruntled letters to the State to perhaps rein in Korncoot a little. His poor journalism is partly the reason we are in this predicament. He said the transfer was "a done deal", so much so that it was even picked up by ESPN. The fact that ESPN took Korncoot's story is laughable and a poor reflection on their own level of journalistic integrity. It's like quoting me for crying out loud.

In summary, Holloway better be released to Clemson after his appeal. Its juvenile and I am sick of Clemson always getting the short end of these sticks. Did we man up and release Marcus Thornton?? Yes, and this isn't even in that same league--Ole Miss, do the right thing.

Recruiting Fodder

So with the dead period fast approaching and the finish line for this recruiting class in sight lets evaluate what is going on. First I want to say that nationally our class has slowly gained more recognition--I think the staff did a good job of evaluating some slightly underrated talent that is now being reflected late in lame star rankings.

Last time I posted on recruiting the top priority I stated was keeping all of our current commits. Well we have done an admirable job up until this point. Georgia and Auburn just will not stop trying to pick off our kids. They have been relentless and finally got David Beasley to visit and are trying to turn him. It would be a big blow, he is probably our best OL commit. Hopefully the Darius Robinson saga is over, apparently he visited Auburn then lied about it but everyone should take a deep breath and try to understand that these kids have a lot of pressure on them and good kids make mistakes. Darius if you are reading this, welcome to the family, to Tiger Nation, you got a lot of talent don't waste it like some two bit Coot(ie committing a felony).

The other concern about holding on to players is getting them all to qualify. There are rumblings that our top WR commit Bryant may not make it. This would be a major blow bc I love DeAndre Hopkins but he lacks the top level speed that Bryant has (although Bryant has slowly been slipping down recruiting boards). Also I recently heard that Craig from Gaffney is going to be close on the SAT. That is pure rumor though and should be treated as such cause we need serious help at WR soon. Charon Peake in 2011 is one of the top WR's in the nation and a Clemson lean.

Ok so the names I said to look out for were Justin Parker, DJ Howard, Ethan Farmer, Lipford and some others.

Then our staff got on their needs and by miraculous intervention have somehow put us not only in the race but potentially leading for KEENAN ALLEN!! I don't think Tiger fans know how good this kid is. I was literally drooling watching him play at the Shrine Bowl. Easily the best player on the field, best player in the Carolinas. Perhaps the number one WR in the nation!! Could start day 1 at WR or Safety in my opinion. Lets not forget that we also are leading for his older brother Zach Maynard. Let us set the record straight Maynard is not a bad QB. This isnt some 2 for 1 deal like Alabama fans, and Coot fans are trying to paint it as. I honestly think with Korn transferring we would be after Maynard regardless of the linkage. He is leaving Buffalo because his coach Turner Gill left (if it was me, it would be bc its stinking cold up in Buffalo--end of story), and you can't fault his brother for wanting to play with his brother. That is certainly not blackmail and to call it such is just sour grapes.

The two are also going to Cal but you got to think the hometown proximity favors the Tigers. We don't have a QB prospect in this class, Parker could be MLB bound and then you have Boyd as an unproven commodity to compete against. He has 18 TD's and 15 ints as a freshman--not all-world but competent and certainly with a year to sit out and learn the system would put him in good shape. Plus the brothers are together.

Back to my gushing though, KEENAN ALLEN!! He is way better than Lattimore and would be an amazing addition to the team. Would literally solve our problems at WR or legitimately replace McDaniel next year. Insane...go Dabo, go!! This was the big splash I was looking for--we have close to a top 10 class with this signing and about 5 top 150 players already verbals for 2011. Now that is championship caliber recruiting!!

So we need to finish strong by getting Justin Parker--he is still the number one defensive priority for me. A solid Mike Linebacker who averages between a 3/4 star. Right now it seems to be between us and LSU but Parker has been everywhere this recruiting season and I wouldn't count on it until the ink is dry. That being said I think we lead and if it really is a two team race, I don't know how many plane rides that give you headaches Parker wants to go on. Justin stay close to home because we desperately need you. You know USuCk isn't going anywhere in the SEC, they will have another .500 season next year but Clemson can win the ACC and soon compete for the Natl Champs. This year we lost to TCU and GT twice (even Maryland and its slow QB ran on us) because we lacked elite LB talent--you could change all that and erase those losses.

DJ Howard has to be monitoring the Lattimore situation. Auburn is stacked at RB and you'll get buried on the depth chart. Clemson gives you a chance to be the big back. Jamie Harper is good but there is plenty of room there for you to contribute right away. I think Dabo has really opened his eyes and made him feel like family. (Dabo has already earned his paycheck by flipping Barnes from FSU, by the way)

Last is Ethan Farmer who might not qualify but we are neck and neck with NCarolina for his services. I really like him and hope he comes to Clemson. He is the type of kid who doesn't care if he redshirts or not, just wants to get in the weight room and get to work. Seems like a lunch pail attitude that would fit in well, especially in contrast to some of our more finesse D Lineman. I would have liked to see him more as a TE, where I think we need some more help--we will see though. It'll come down to National Signing Day.

If we land Parker this is a good solid class that helps the team take a step forward, if we sign Allen we should be cheering. The addition of a QB depth, another big back, a MLB, DL/TE, and all world WR would make my day. Oh and got to hold on to our top OL recruit Beasley. If we could have scored one more plus OLineman like Max Garcia I would have been ecstatic about this class. Good job Dabo and company--now bring it home!!

Boston College Preview 2

Clemson vs. Boston College, 01/26, 7:00pm, Conte Forum

Only got a few minutes here, I've been back at the 14 hour work day again...things should calm down by the end of the week. I wanted to drop in and comment quickly on the upcoming BC game and the general state of Clemson basketball.

About three weeks ago I wrote that Boston College, N.C. State, and Virginia were bringing up the rear of the ACC this season. Since that time, BC has managed to distinguish itself from the pack, in a bad way. It's not really that BC has played terribly, they beat a better than-their-record indicates Miami team and nearly knocked off VT, both on the road. But they haven't played well against better teams, getting absolutely blown out by Duke, Clemson, and Maryland, with the Maryland game at home. At the same time, I've been reasonably impressed with the positive steps forward by NC State and Virginia so far this season, leaving BC at a distance behind. I think you can make a strong argument at this point that BC is in a bit of a tailspin as a program, its now going on three years since they were a legitimate bubble team, if there is such a thing. BC is still a team struggling on defense mainly because they can't force turnovers and secondarily because they don't defend the shot particularly well. On offense they can't shoot the ball, particularly from behind the arc. Raji and Tripani have been doing a pretty good job getting some open looks, but if the team they are playing has any semblance of an offense, its hard for them to slow it down enough.

Of course, Clemson's offense will be lacking the services of Demontez Stitt and frankly hasn't looked great lately, but this is absolutely a game Clemson should win. I know it's a long road trip to frigid Boston for a two hour game on a Tuesday night, and I know that a lot of people view Stitt as the key to the offense, but this is still the very definition of a winnable ACC road game for the Tigers--they have to take advantage. (By the way, I like the decision to hold Stitt out for this game. Clemson shouldn't need him to get some offense going against BC and if he's not close to 100%, he's just blocking time that would be better spent with Young at the helm. As in the Duke game, when he doesn't have his explosive first step, he's not worth much on the floor. Plus, I'm really worried that he injured himself more severely in the last five minutes of the GT game.)

That brings me to the general state of Clemson basketball. I didn't get a chance to write up the Duke game because I was swamped at work, but ClemBen did a pretty admirable job of summing up my feelings in rant form. With a couple of days to reflect, though, Clemson is right where I thought they would be about three weeks ago. Sure, I thought they would be less competitive in a game where they nearly pulled the upset (GT) and more competitive in a game they never really had a chance in (Duke), but really your opinion of the Tigers shouldn't change anymore after the last two games than it should have after the blowout win over UNC. Duke's a championship caliber team this year and while of course I would have liked to have been more competitive, that's really a game where we need a healthy Stitt to create some offense. Meanwhile, UNC (1-3 so far in ACC play) isn't turning out to be much of a team this season.

Last two games notwithstanding, Clemson is still on track for a 9-7 or 10-6 season (leaning towards 9-7) with an NCAA tournament invitation. Lose to BC today, though, and we'll be fighting the "bubble team" label all the way into March.

NC State Recap or Thoughts on In-game Collapses

I'm going to do these recaps as often as possible during the ACC season, similar to what I was doing last year...

I don't have a lot of time, so straight to the chart:

College Basketball

(Chart from Statsheet. I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)

All in all, I thought it was a fairly standard outing this season by the Tigers. We're going to hear a lot about how this was a "tale of two halves" or whatever, but the nature of Clemson's game (particularly this year) is such that when the pressure is working, the defense looks great; but when Clemson starts looking tired, the other team makes adjustments, puts in someone who can handle the ball better, or starts getting a few bounces/calls to go their way they are going to put points on the board. UNC could never make the adjustments and we stomped them for two halves. Duke almost never had a problem and they stomped us for two halves. No one's going to accuse Sidney Lowe of being a coaching genius, but limiting turnover machine Javier Gonzalez to 10 minutes of playing time (well below his season average of ~27 minutes) isn't the work of guy who doesn't understand the situation. All of this raises a bit of a red flag: while the pressure defense probably hasn't been better since the days of Hammonds and Mays, the half-court defense (while perhaps a little better than last year), isn't enough to keep even offensively-challenged teams like NC State from scoring.

It's good to keep in mind, however, that the nature of Purnell's (and by extension, Clemson's) brand of basketball is inherently pretty volatile, a number of different factors like referee style of officiating ("calling it close" or "letting them play"), the level of fatigue for Clemson or the opponent, a series of missed calls, etc. can have a dramatic impact on the overall effectiveness of the defense. This can leave the team look like a polished, overwhelming machine at one point in time and totally clueless the next--and I think this is heightened somewhat this year because we lack a really solid half-court defense to fall back on. The prototypical game which I refer people to is the Villanova game in round 1 of the 2008 tournament. We came out and absolutely flustered Villanova's pair of excellent but inexperienced guards (Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher, I believe), building a quick lead in the first ten minutes of the game--and it looked like we could do no wrong. Then the guards remembered that they were pretty good, stopped throwing the ball away, and cut the lead in half by the break. Then in the second half, it looked like Clemson could do nothing right while giving up 48 points en route to a 6-point loss. The key: Reynolds and Fisher shredding through the pressure defense.

Anyways, I've wandered off topic here but I guess I needed to justify my statement above: this did feel like a standard Clemson outing. Ever wonder why Clemson struggles to "close out games" or "finish strong"? The preceding paragraph seems like a reasonable explanation--mull it over for a while. I don't by the lack of leadership argument; a coach couldn't design a better leader than T. Booker. This reasoning also explains how Clemson manages furious finishes from time to time. Remember the Butler game? Remember how tired Butler looked early on in the second half? The same players allegedly lacking a leader managed a thrilling comeback. Remember last year's allegedly dysfunctional squad pulling off an improbable comeback at Virginia Tech? Maryland two years ago? This may be a bit preemptive, but if someone wants to complain about Clemson's failures to "seal the deal", can we at least get some acknowledgement of their ability to unexpectedly storm back to victory? And then maybe we can start seeing the two outcomes as sides of the same coin. Clemson plays a volatile style of basketball, sometimes it works for us, sometimes against us, and sometimes we have just enough in the tank to overcome home-court advantage plus three points.

***Lastly, unrelated to the above, I wanted to comment on Stitt's status. I'm not the biggest Stitt fan, I'm on the record as saying that Young is more than capable of filling most of the roles he plays for the team. But that doesn't change the fact that losing Stitt for any extended period of time is a big blow. No one on the team can replace Stitt's explosive first step and his ability to penetrate and cause problems for the defense. It also seems like he's been cut loose a little over the last three games, and the results have been pretty good. Unfortunately, he's also got a growing injury history. He's got a little bit of Dwayne Wade in him that way--penetration guy with little regard for his body and a litany of nagging injuries hampering his play. Unfortunately, Stitt's injury sounds pretty serious--not a pulled muscle or something. There's also the issue of how healthy he is when he finally comes back. If you watched the team closely last year, Stitt never seemed the same after coming back from a pre-ACC season injury. I'm not going to jump to any conclusions here, but obviously keeping the game close against in Atlanta on Tuesday just became a lot more difficult. I'll try to comment more when we get news of the severity of the injury.

What in Tar Nation? Clemson Spanks UNC

UPDATED BELOW, Tigermax

After Duke everyone was going to meltdown but thats because lots of football fans dont understand how to be basketball fans necessarily. Basketball season isnt about your record so much as peaking at the right time. I mean sure you want to win the conference regular season champs and have a good seed in the tourney but its about getting your team playing at the optimum level late in the season. Its also very much about match-ups, with Duke last year we matched up well against their suspect guard play--this year we dont match up well at all. However, we do match up well against UNC and made them look silly committing around 26 turnovers. TBooker at the point of the press really helps put on the pressure. It also helps him get into his offensive mindset with a couple easy flushes that come from that position.

We looked a lot better in a lot of aspects of the game but I wanted to just highlight a couple right now. FT shooting!!! We were 18-20 from the line. Hallelujah! I'll take 90% from the line any night. Stitt scored 20 points on 8-14 attempts. We need him to play well and drive the offense. He is the only player on the team with a legit first step who can drive and if he can cut down on some of the turnovers then he will be exciting.

I dont like Potter much at all and his shot selection is mind-bottling but he had 5 steals. We need him to be a legit three point shooter. I liked Noel Johnson sticking those two threes early, really set the tone but we went cold thereafter. We missed 11 threes in the second half--dont think we made one. Smith missed some open looks but had a solid game otherwise. The three point shooting has to get better if we are going to challenge in the ACC. And I do mean challenge because Duke just got beat by a manic GTech team. We beat UNC and FSU is up and down as well. Anyone can win this, Duke should be favored but I think we can beat them at home with the Freshman not looking completely shell shocked.

This was a good learning game, wish we could still get the younglings more time in the games, but a victory to relish. Its been six years since we beat these Tar Heels and I think we could have broken the curse had we played in the Dean Dome. I am looking forward to the Duke rematch. Going away to NC State, playing a lot better than I expected, and the always dangerous GTech team are two tough challenges as well. The ACC will be a dog fight but since I hate that metaphor I'll leave you to discuss what that actually means...

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Tigermax adds: Not quite as satisfying as the Duke thrashing last year, but pretty darn close. This was a case of a team with a glaring weakness (UNC's turnover problem) running smack into a team perfectly tailored to take advantage of that weakness (Clemson's pressure defense). As Clemben pointed out above, Duke really had the same problem coming into their game last year.

At the same time, I would caution against viewing this as some watershed moment for Clemson basketball. They played very well against a team they match up well against. Not to underplay the victory, it's good for all sorts of reasons (NCAA tournament resume, ACC standings, ACC tournament seeding, improved FT shooting, etc.) Also, if you put stock in this sort of thing, you can certainly argue that Clemson displayed intangibles last night that haven't been present recently. But it shouldn't really change your opinion about the basic skill level of the team. We still have fundamental flaws that can be exploited by the right team. I'll be withholding any revisions in overall team skill until we play the same way against a tall team that forces turnovers and plays outstanding defense; the general profile of teams that have given us fits in the last couple of years.

UNC preview

UNC vs. Clemson, 9pm, 1/13, Littlejohn

Not much time but I wanted to get some quick thoughts out. This game is important to Clemson for two reasons: first, this is the first true "toss-up" game Clemson will play (in the sense that I have no idea who will win) and as I wrote in the last post playing your best basketball in toss-up games is the easiest way to pick up unexpected victories. Second, this game will mark the first test of Purnell's defensive adjustments this season; specifically, the willingness to frequently and unexpectedly throw different variations of full-court pressure at an opponent. We get to see if this is successful at slowing a high-octane offense that hung 103 points on us last season.

Of course, this isn't the same UNC team. I've watched them some and came to the obvious conclusion: the guard play just isn't the same as the last few years. When I delved into the statistics, though, I was surprised at what I found. They still play at a breakneck tempo (7th fastest in the country) and still score most of their points with the 2-point basket (5th in the country). But I was expecting to see a team struggling to make shots, but their effective field goal percentage is about as good as the 2008 and 2009 juggernauts. Instead, their biggest problem is a dramatic increase in turnovers on offense. Its not a product of bad luck either, they rank 317the in the country in having the ball stolen. This is great news for Clemson, since it plays right into our strengths: forcing turnovers and stealing the ball. They also don't force turnovers on defense, one of the worst in the league. One of their strengths on defense is not sending the other team to the line (best rate in the country), but this could also be construed as good news for the 63.5% shooting Tigers.

After looking at the stats, I'm a little more confident in Clemson's chances--but I have too strong a memory of UNC easily breaking the pressure last season that I still think this game could go relatively big either way. If Clemson can limit the amount of times the 'heels break the press and find an easy two-point basket, they could pretty easily win by ten points. If UNC unexpectedly holds onto the ball like BC managed to do last Saturday and finds some success in pushing the ball past the pressure, they could almost as easily win by ten points.

Shape of the coming ACC schedule

Two games in and I thought it would be useful to look at the remaining games on Clemson's schedule to get a sense of where the victories and losses will come from. Dividing the games up into three general categories, this is how I see things right now:

Clemson favored (6): @NC State, @BC, Maryland, Virginia, Miami, GT

Opponent favored (5): @GT, Duke, FSU, @FSU, @Wake

Toss-up (3): UNC, @VT, @Maryland

These are extremely broad categories that encompass a range of likelihoods for individual games within each category but I think these are generally pretty defensible. You might quibble with a game or two (you could move one or both GT games into the "toss-up" category, for example), but let's call it reasonable for now. Clemson can expect to win 4-6 from the first category, 1-2 from the second, and 1-2 from the final category (win one, lose one, and the last one is up for grabs). That leaves us with a realistic range of 6-10 additional wins for the season, with the most likely scenario at 9 total wins (8 + the already-notched BC win).

Two observations from this breakdown: 1) the toss-up games become "swing" games of a sort. The best way for Clemson to add "unexpected" wins to their ledger is by playing well, getting some bounces and key calls, and running the tables in these games. It's early in the season, but this is why next Wednesday's game is so critical for the Tigers. It's also worth noting that UNC is classified as a toss-up not because I think the game will be close, but because I don't have any idea how the two teams will really matchup with each other this year. I'll elaborate more later in the week in the UNC preview. 2) The bulk of the difficult matchups for Clemson come at the end of the schedule, 3 of the last 4 and 5 of the last 8 fall into the "toss-up" or "opponent-favored" categories. This has two general effects: 1) we need to rack up wins in the early going and 2) the setup of the schedule will feed the lazy "Clemson-falters-at-the-end-of-the-year" media narrative that the Tigers are apparently cursed with. It's a media narrative I tried to debunk at least for last season here, and I have a feeling I'll be trying to debunk it this year, as well.

3 BBall Questions

So we are underway with the Clemson bball season and after watching the Presb. game I find myself returning to three key themes for this season. I know its a trite formulation but here are 3 Keys (more like questions though) for the early season. Right now I really think UNC and Duke are overrated and that this is our best season to date for winning the ACC. We are picked to finish third and no team below us scares me too much--Wake has Aminu, GT has potential and FSU has an athletic giant, but none of the teams above us strikes any fear. Duke has no guards and problems against the press (Scheyer and Singler playing almost the whole game, every game??) and UNC is the shell of its former self. They play Ohio St., Michigan St., Kentucky, and Texas in the next month or so. After that tell me if they will take the ACC??

So what must Clemson do to improve enough to win the ACC--I think the Liberty game will be a good gauge for how far along we are, how far we need to go. This team will be a work in progress all year, so we need to treat it as such--there will be some growing pains. The key is how we improve in these areas
1. Ball Handling/Turnovers--This is really about whether or not Stitt progressed enough this off season to be the explosive player we need him to be. We need him to be able to drive the lane consistently and dish. I thought he was getting there last year till he hurt his ankle and that slowed him a bit all year. Look for Andre Young to step up if Stitt stalls.
2. 3pt Shooting/Identity--We need to have Smith and Johnson or even Potter be able to consistently knock down threes this year. But I am concerned with the identity of this team. Even without TO we could rely too much on the three because we still cant pass the ball into the post enough. Booker has always been stalled by inept guards unable to pass him the ball. That has got to change, and thats a tough thing for Freshman to do.
3. Rebounding--When Booker is motivated he is the best rebounder in the ACC but he will need some help. Grant needs to elevate his game to be a stronger rebounder insider. Sykes ended up doing a good job for us as well as Rivers but we need some of the freshmen to step in. Booker Jr. and Jennings will be called upon. I am really disappointed that Bobo Baciu has not progressed much, thought he would be that tenth guy to come in and provide some rebounding and defense but it hasnt materialized yet. With the press and all the 3's we just need to stay even with teams but we cant play soft and have a weak mentality that I am afraid is the result of tentative freshman play.

Good Vibrations: For All Those Who Still Want To Believe

I havent been able to shake the utter disappointment from the Maryland game but I have found quiet hope and seen a glimmer of redemption in the simple fact that the Atlantic division is just awful this year. VT, GT, and Miami are superior teams right now--well lets hope GT is, and Virginia and Duke will beat someone in the Atlantic. So the point is that the winner of the Atlantic will assuredly have 2 losses but will more likely have three or four. So its going to be crowded and its going to come down to head to head records. Lets project two games into the future, shall we...

BC is the current front-runner--wait, the same BC we held to 50 yrds of offense and beat?? This is good for us bc BC plays/loses to VT this week and then plays NC State the next which is a toss-up. They will have at least two losses then, one of them to us!! We probably want State to win, bc the BC schedule then becomes the easiest of the remaining teams. NC the only remaining really tough game. So BC may have a 5-3 record in the conference 4-4 not out of the question.

Next threat is NC State--Tom O'Brien what is going on? They are 0-1 but a better team than they showed against Wake, probably the most dangerous team in terms of talent and coaching but lucky for us they have a tough schedule remaining--the play Duke this week and then BC the next but also have VT and NC. It would really help us if NC steps it up and can beat the majority of the Atlantic teams they play. I can easily see them being 5-3 or 4-4. Clemson needs to hold the tie breaker though.

Wake is very unpredictable. It seems to depend on the mood of Riley Skinner so I'm having a tough time placing them. They are 1-1 in conference and will play Maryland before playing us. If they beat Maryland we have to beat them but they do play Miami and GT which seem like two losses and an FSU team playing for Bowdens life so I think the losses will be there 5-3, 4-4.

Maryland is scary to me. They suck and we shouldnt have lost to them, but they have the weakest schedule in the division playing Duke and Virginia and then VT. Most teams are going to go 1-2 OOC but Maryland could go 2-1. We dont have the tie breaker so it feels more comfortable if they go 4-4, 5-3 spells doom. They play Wake and then Virginia so they could be 2-1 or 3-0 after next week.

Who would have thought we would be talking about FSU as the gutter dwellers of the pathetic Atlantic division. Things look even worse playing GT and at NC in the next two weeks. I dont think the 0-2 Noles are that bad a team but that loss to BC is mindbottling (thank you Will Ferrell), and I cant see them recovering to finish on top.

So there you have it. It looks like everyone is headed for 4-4 seasons. If Clemson can beat Wake, State, and FSU it can stand to lose to Miami and still come out on top. Unless Maryland gets crazy...

There is still hope Tiger fans and at least the defense is good. Can anyone imagine the absolute catastrophe this season would have been without CJ?? I mean its ugly enough already...

Congrats ACC

So its been awhile since the ACC was the strongest conference in the land but thanks to our very own national champion North Carolina Tarheels, we now have the talking points to battle the Big East machine and can again listen to all the ACC coaches talk up the ACC at every opportunity, ad nauseam. Hopefully Clemson starts in the top twenty or twenty-five next season, a stronger perception of the ACC helps the tigers. And that is all conference ranking is--pure perception. Its like Mel Kiper and his draft projections--you pick and choose what you want to make into criteria to justify your argument. Having the "National Champs" sure helps the cause so thank you NC NC. Now all of you please declare for the NBA(Aminu, Teague, Henderson-that means you too) so Clemson can finally beat you all. Things are looking good for next year, very good...

CLEMSON ACC TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

(Atlanta, 03/12-03/15, ALL DAY!)

Aaah, the ACC tourney...a great warmup for next week's main event. I have to say, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament: best sports weekend of the year. It used to get competition from the three day bowl period around New Years, but the NCAA has pretty much ruined that by dragging it out over a couple of weeks. Thank you NCAA for not screwing up the men's basketball tournament...yet.

I haven't spent much time previewing Clemson's (hopefully first two) matchups because I don't think I can type much more about Georgia Tech or Florida State. I even touched on why we struggle against GT/FSU-type teams earlier in the week. One point to emphasize: the stakes are high for Clemson today/tomorrow. A surprise loss on the eve of Selection Sunday to a perceived bad team could drop us down to an 8/9seed of death. A couple of wins, though, would solidify a 6 seed, and maybe push us up to the 4/5 level.

I want let me be clear about one thing, though: despite this being a tough draw for the Tigers, both of these games are winnable. Against FSU, an extra bounce or a blown call or two going our way and we could have beaten them twice in the regular season. Unfortunately, if we bruise our way through two of the three tallest teams in the league, our reward will likely be North Carolina...and your going to see a tired Tiger team take on arguably the best team in the country. But hey, in basketball you just never know: Potter could drain 5 three attempts and/or Stitt could hang 30 points on his former favorite team. All I know is I'm glad its tournament time.

GO TIGERS!!!!!!!!!

CLEMBENTIGERMAX POWER RANKINGS: TEAMS

First a word of preface--yes its a little late in the season but we've been meaning to do this for awhile. These arent the actual standings but how good the teams are doing currently and RPI rankings, SOS, my opinion, etc.

TEAM RANKINGS

1. North Carolina-Although not the unbeatable juggernaut they were at the beginning of the season-the core of Ellington, Hans, and Lawson is formidable-especially with Lawson more motivated to pick up his game as the end of the season looms.


2. Duke-No I dont want Duke to be this high but I cant justify putting FSU or Wake ahead of them. Somehow Coach K has been able to right the ship. Clemson exposed their lack of athleticism but that Coach K can still coach and, unfortunately, still star in credit card commercials. I still think there are too many white players, especially ones named Paulus, to have a chance at a deep NCAA run. Second round defeat sounds about right.
   


3. Florida State-After their solid defeat of Clemson I want to put them as number two but just cant do it after loosing to Duke. They are slightly ahead of an uneven Wake team and despite the loss are clicking down the stretch at the right time.


4. Wake Forest-Perhaps the most lottery talent on one team in the country. At times they are absolutely dominant but at other times cant figure out how to share the ball and play without passion. Too much selfish play. Granted they beat on FSU the first and only time they will play but losses to GT, NC State and a poor showing at Virginia and Maryland give me cause for concern.


5. Clemson-My Tigers just cant seem to get the ball in to T-Book. This team has been overachieving all year and has had a rocky week but its been a great ride. Still capable of beating any team in the league and perhaps the country when they are on. OP can flat out coach and hopefully makes the right adjustments down the stretch.
   
6. Boston College-Rice is the heart and soul of this team but they can lack consistency as evidenced by their loss to NC State. Must win against BC to secure NCAA bid and must find some scoring help to ease the burden on Rice. Its funny how a lot of these teams primary colors are the same...
   
7. Virginia Tech-This season has been a disappointing one for me and I'm sure for Hokies fans. After being shut out of the NCAA's last year and coach Greenberg wailing and moaning about it I think its safe to assume we will be hearing more of it. Bad ref work cost them at Duke and maybe even NC but they have to beat FSU and win some games in ACC tourney or its NIT city. Still this is a more talented team than their record indicates.
8. Maryland-Gary Williams should be commended for the job he has done with this team. Watching them almost beat a superior Wake squad is why I love college bball over the nba anyday. David 'churchballer' Neal and the Grevis man a team that is as much about heart as it is about skill.
   
9. Miami-Welcome to Miami, home of the most disappointing team in the ACC. Projected by some to finish third, with the loss to GT I think we can say that barring a massive run deep into the ACC tourney they have punched their NIT ticket. McClinton is still amazing and can still take over a game but this team just cant find any semblance of consistency.
10. NC State-Someone needs to give Coach Lowe a clue. He is the most awful coach in the ACC and his teams reflect it. State has picked it up here at the end of the year, beating BC and will give Miami a hard rub but its hard seeing how this team is going to rise out of mediocrity with Lowe at the helm.
11. Georgia Tech-I'm not sure I've ever seen a team do so little with so much talent. Paul Hewitt has been giving the aforementioned Coach Lowe a run for his money as the worst coach in the ACC this year. This team has the talent and potential but cant put it together and if it were not for the stellar recruiting class coming to GT, I would think that Hewitt's days would be numbered, regardless he is on a short leash heading into next year.
12. Virginia-The fact that Virginia is on the bottom of this list speaks to the relative strength of the ACC, top to bottom-perhaps the best conference in the country. This team is all about Landesberg, Chad Ford even has him going in the first round if he declares, but not much is surrounding him. If he goes the team is done for next year and I dont see Coach Leitao weathering the storm for much longer. There is some young talent here but it still needs a lot of developing.