Man...
How many of us when the score was 17-35 didn't believe...
I am physically tired, physically drained. In retrospect it was a thrilling game that I strangely enjoyed but only in retrospect. What a rollercoaster. So I have to ask the question, what have we learned??
The Defense still can't handle a running QB or the zone read. This reminded me of 2009 against Maryland where we couldn't stop the slowest QB I have ever seen run the zone read. I am sure Edsall saw the film and that's why they went with Wilson. It is partly scheme but more a result of poor Linebacker play (MLB specifically) and poor containment. We have to get this figured out for GT and South Carolina and Conner Shaw. We play better against more pro-style QB's I think. Maryland just steam rolled the D with tempo which is what let us back into the game. Ultimately we gassed them in the fourth though.
We learned that Watkins is human with the punt muff and then we learned we were tricked and that he was just disguising his superhero status. Watkins won us the game today. We finally got the return game going. I would like to see Bellamy back there on kickoffs. I don't think Brown has the speed.
Boyd showed great poise again. He seems to have one hair pulling stupid moment a game. The pass to Werner, last week it was another throw of the ball when he was sacked, and this week it was a pick 6 right to the DB Chism, I believe. Boyd threw two passes that should have been intercepted in the beginning along with throwing high and looking horrible. He settled and put together a great game. Made some pretty throws at the end.
We are really missing Benton. Lots of short kicks and our coverage teams need some serious work. Lateek is one of the only bright spots--this is both kick and punt coverage. Way too many returns to the 30-40 yard line. Got to get that fixed.
We had been 2-3 against Maryland in the last 5 games. I am thrilled to walk away with the win. Lets hope this builds confidence and keeps any thoughts of overconfidence at bay. Lets hope we can keep our legs for North Carolina but we need to do better tackling.
More thoughts later...I'm off to bed. Sleeping the sleep of victor's! Go Tigers!
Showing posts with label Maryland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Maryland. Show all posts
Saturday, 15 October 2011
Wednesday, 1 December 2010
Quick Reminder: Brad Brownell Not Really Much of an X's/O's Guy on Offense
I'm not sure where the rumor started. I just remember reading it in the blogs somewhere, and then suddenly it everyone seemed to accept it as the gospel truth. Seriously, its almost like this idea was planted by the front office and bam! pretty soon everyone is a stenographer.
In an effort to inject some data into the assessment of Brownell's hiring, I took a quick look at the statistical profiles of his past squads (this was back when I had the time for this sort of thing...) No doubt he's led some great defenses, but on offense his team finished in the top 3 in his conference only once--last year (#3!!). Other than that, his offenses have hovered right around average in both the Colonial and Horizon Leagues. Not exactly the dominant mark of a young coaching wizard. In fact, Brownell's overall statistical team profiles eerily resemble the not-so-dearly departed Oliver Purnell, despite using starkly different strategies to construct stingy defenses and middling offenses.
The Michigan game is disheartening, but it reinforces my early views that we are on a rocky road this season with our best hopes likely lying in an 8-8 ACC season. I believe we have latent offensive talent on this team, but without a coaching staff capable of scheming to fit or develop the talent we are in for a long season of crappy offensive displays. Kind of like the last several years, but less frantic. Much, much less frantic. Glacial.
Clemben Addition: This is the perfect game to shut up Tanner Smith enthusiasts. 1-7 and 0-5 from 3 pt. land. 4 fouls and beat to the basket on multiple occasions (not that anyone was rotating on defense so its not all his fault). We really need Noel Johnson to step up and take half of Tanner's minutes or ACC play will get ugly. Lucky for us Wake and GT stink. Miami, Virginia Tech and FSU are underachieving. Roy Williams has Harrison Barnes and can't right the ship (I love that Barnes was picked as a preaseason All-American??, would have been a top draft pick in NBA but is struggling in college). Maryland and NC State I don't know enough about but are beatable and only Virginia seems to have improved much since last year. Yes, Duke is back to being unstoppable but our schedule is favorable.
This loss to Michigan at home on national TV really does sting though. We have to hope that Michigan continues to improve in the Big Ten. We really need to win our next two games to stay in the NCAA hunt if we go 8-8 in ACC play. Losing to South Carolina in the 3 major sports this year is unacceptable Barker. Don't let the door hit you on the way out Terry Don. How about we get an athletic director with a normal name for a change? That would mean Billy D'Andrea would be disqualified. Hooray!
One thing to remember is that expanded brackets (which I absolutely abhor--64 was a great number) might really benefit us this year. Still unless this team improves fundamentally, its going to be a long year. Glacial sounds about right.
In an effort to inject some data into the assessment of Brownell's hiring, I took a quick look at the statistical profiles of his past squads (this was back when I had the time for this sort of thing...) No doubt he's led some great defenses, but on offense his team finished in the top 3 in his conference only once--last year (#3!!). Other than that, his offenses have hovered right around average in both the Colonial and Horizon Leagues. Not exactly the dominant mark of a young coaching wizard. In fact, Brownell's overall statistical team profiles eerily resemble the not-so-dearly departed Oliver Purnell, despite using starkly different strategies to construct stingy defenses and middling offenses.
The Michigan game is disheartening, but it reinforces my early views that we are on a rocky road this season with our best hopes likely lying in an 8-8 ACC season. I believe we have latent offensive talent on this team, but without a coaching staff capable of scheming to fit or develop the talent we are in for a long season of crappy offensive displays. Kind of like the last several years, but less frantic. Much, much less frantic. Glacial.
Clemben Addition: This is the perfect game to shut up Tanner Smith enthusiasts. 1-7 and 0-5 from 3 pt. land. 4 fouls and beat to the basket on multiple occasions (not that anyone was rotating on defense so its not all his fault). We really need Noel Johnson to step up and take half of Tanner's minutes or ACC play will get ugly. Lucky for us Wake and GT stink. Miami, Virginia Tech and FSU are underachieving. Roy Williams has Harrison Barnes and can't right the ship (I love that Barnes was picked as a preaseason All-American??, would have been a top draft pick in NBA but is struggling in college). Maryland and NC State I don't know enough about but are beatable and only Virginia seems to have improved much since last year. Yes, Duke is back to being unstoppable but our schedule is favorable.
This loss to Michigan at home on national TV really does sting though. We have to hope that Michigan continues to improve in the Big Ten. We really need to win our next two games to stay in the NCAA hunt if we go 8-8 in ACC play. Losing to South Carolina in the 3 major sports this year is unacceptable Barker. Don't let the door hit you on the way out Terry Don. How about we get an athletic director with a normal name for a change? That would mean Billy D'Andrea would be disqualified. Hooray!
One thing to remember is that expanded brackets (which I absolutely abhor--64 was a great number) might really benefit us this year. Still unless this team improves fundamentally, its going to be a long year. Glacial sounds about right.
Wednesday, 14 April 2010
Don't Beat Those Who Like To See Duke Beaten
I hope nothing like this ever comes to Clemson. No fan deserves or (human being for that matter) deserves to be beaten while in the defenseless fetal position. Cops deserve the respect they are owed but these bad apples reflect poorly on the entire law enforcement profession. This makes my blood boil because if Clemson had beaten Duke I would have been skipping in the street. Shoot if I was there I would have too...who wouldn't be happy seeing Singler lose(even to Greivis)??
Saturday, 27 February 2010
On the Clemson "Collapse" Meme
This isn't aimed at anyone in particular, it's just something I've noticed that seems to dominate every discussion board, comment thread, or blogpost, or newspaper article about a Clemson basketball game, regardless of the situation. Every time Clemson blows a lead, every time another team makes a run, even every time Clemson manages to build a lead, people either reflexively label it a "collapse" or they start talking about the coming collapse. To me, a "collapse" implies a series of inexplicable events wherein a big lead evaporates while the team looks on wide-eyed in disbelief. Like the Illinois game earlier this year. That was undoubtedly a "collapse".
But this past Maryland game was completely different, and in the name of reasoned analysis I think it's important to distinguish between collapses and non-collapses. We lost to a better team. We did a great job coming out and taking advantage of a what, in retrospect, was a bad opening strategy for Gary Williams as he tried to slow us down with some pressure defense similar to what other teams had been doing early in the year against us. But we turned the tables by attacking the press without turning the ball over (too many times, at least) and getting good looks at the other end underneath and from long range. But once Gary Williams called off the press, we struggled in the half-court set to get good looks. Meanwhile, we struggled to get any stops on defense throughout the entire game, even when we were leading by 15 points. The only time Maryland didn't score is when they stopped themselves by throwing the ball away or missing a layup. There was no way to watch that game and not realize with five minutes left in the first half that Maryland was going to close the gap, not for reasons inexplicable but because they made a adjustment to their strategy that played to their strengths and our weaknesses. The rest of the game was like watching a rising tide against the banks of that 15-point Clemson lead. Maryland overcoming the Tigers was inevitable unless a) we made some miraculous adjustment of our own, or b) the 15 point lead could somehow hold up through a series of stupid Maryland mistakes. Since Maryland doesn't make mistakes and Purnell isn't known for in-game adjustment, you could call the game for Maryland with Clemson leading by 12 with five minutes left in the half.
Moreover, and I hate to break it to people here, but a 15-point lead in a game with 167 total points ain't that much of lead, particularly when the lead comes at the 12/13 minute mark in the first half. If the final score ends up 65-60, then maybe its something of a lead. But we were on a near NBA pace in 40 minutes of basketball. That's too many points and too much time remaining to consider 15 points any kind of definitive lead--its completely within the realm of expected score deviation for two teams given the final result.
We were beaten by a better team that matches up particularly well with us in their home arena. Just because they essentially spotted us a fifteen point lead doesn't mean we collapsed. I, for one, am unconvinced that we are prone to collapse more than any other given team. For every Illinois game there are dozens of games when Clemson has held a 12+ point lead (Virginia, Miami, and Florida State are three games just in the last two weeks) and every team across college basketball inexplicably loses games from season to season. Maybe its the lack of outstanding successes punctuated by occasional heartbreaking losses, but for whatever reason the myth of the Clemson collapse has just lodged itself in the collective psyche of the Clemson basketball fanbase. I'm just trying to say that while some blown leads are collapses, others are a result of fundamental roster or coaching problems.
But this past Maryland game was completely different, and in the name of reasoned analysis I think it's important to distinguish between collapses and non-collapses. We lost to a better team. We did a great job coming out and taking advantage of a what, in retrospect, was a bad opening strategy for Gary Williams as he tried to slow us down with some pressure defense similar to what other teams had been doing early in the year against us. But we turned the tables by attacking the press without turning the ball over (too many times, at least) and getting good looks at the other end underneath and from long range. But once Gary Williams called off the press, we struggled in the half-court set to get good looks. Meanwhile, we struggled to get any stops on defense throughout the entire game, even when we were leading by 15 points. The only time Maryland didn't score is when they stopped themselves by throwing the ball away or missing a layup. There was no way to watch that game and not realize with five minutes left in the first half that Maryland was going to close the gap, not for reasons inexplicable but because they made a adjustment to their strategy that played to their strengths and our weaknesses. The rest of the game was like watching a rising tide against the banks of that 15-point Clemson lead. Maryland overcoming the Tigers was inevitable unless a) we made some miraculous adjustment of our own, or b) the 15 point lead could somehow hold up through a series of stupid Maryland mistakes. Since Maryland doesn't make mistakes and Purnell isn't known for in-game adjustment, you could call the game for Maryland with Clemson leading by 12 with five minutes left in the half.
Moreover, and I hate to break it to people here, but a 15-point lead in a game with 167 total points ain't that much of lead, particularly when the lead comes at the 12/13 minute mark in the first half. If the final score ends up 65-60, then maybe its something of a lead. But we were on a near NBA pace in 40 minutes of basketball. That's too many points and too much time remaining to consider 15 points any kind of definitive lead--its completely within the realm of expected score deviation for two teams given the final result.
We were beaten by a better team that matches up particularly well with us in their home arena. Just because they essentially spotted us a fifteen point lead doesn't mean we collapsed. I, for one, am unconvinced that we are prone to collapse more than any other given team. For every Illinois game there are dozens of games when Clemson has held a 12+ point lead (Virginia, Miami, and Florida State are three games just in the last two weeks) and every team across college basketball inexplicably loses games from season to season. Maybe its the lack of outstanding successes punctuated by occasional heartbreaking losses, but for whatever reason the myth of the Clemson collapse has just lodged itself in the collective psyche of the Clemson basketball fanbase. I'm just trying to say that while some blown leads are collapses, others are a result of fundamental roster or coaching problems.
Thursday, 25 February 2010
Maryland Recap 2
Maryland 88, Clemson 79
I'm going to disagree a little with ClemBen here. I think we can say with some certainty now that Maryland is a good team. Not final-four caliber, but the sweet sixteen isn't a stretch this year for Gary Williams & Co. I think as a Clemson fan the game went about as well as you could hope for. We were aggressive in the beginning, particularly on offense. Gary Williams came out pressing us, probably hoping to slow our offense down like in the first meeting. I was impressed, Clemson showed a real ability to attack Maryland's pressure, getting down the court and finding open shots. With Maryland unable to get set in their defense, they were even worse than normal defending the offensive glass, leading to quite a few easy points. When Gary Williams dialed down the pressure and started setting his team back in the halfcourt, we stopped getting the open three-point looks. With Jerai Grant only playing 9 minutes, Trevor Booker looked really tired in the second half and wasn't able to fight for position on the blocks. Those two factors really combined to stunt the offense in the second half, and it slowly slipped away from Clemson. I really think Jerai Grant's fifth foul with about 11:00 minutes left was the death knell. Without an extra body to fight for the offensive rebounds and spell T. Booker, we were in deep trouble even if we were still clinging to a lead at the time.
On the other side of the ball, Maryland's offense really just overwhelmed us. If they hadn't missed so many point-blank shots in the first half they might have hung a hundred on us. Thinking back to the second half, it's hard to remember us getting any stops at all. I can remember Maryland throwing the ball away a couple of times, but we could not stop the sets Gary Williams was throwing at us. They had a great designed play where Vasquez gave the ball up at the three point line to Tucker who was running a curling around to shed his defender, and knowing that Smith would turn his back and follow Vasquez under the hoop, Tucker ran right behind Smith using him as shield to get three feet from the hoop. That's what you get from watching the tapes.
My only critique of Clemson's play is to wonder why we didn't abandon the press earlier in the first half--Maryland was really shredding the pressure from the opening tip. I can appreciate Purnell's desire to be aggressive and create some opportunities in a game we didn't have much of a chance to win, but I would have preferred to see Clemson concentrate on the half court after we built that big lead. That would have at least forced Maryland to fight for some of its points instead of allowing them to pretty effortlessly whittle down the lead in the waning minutes of the first half.
Now the pressure shifts back on us to win two of the last three. I wouldn't take this game as an indication of how we will perform the rest of the way; as I discussed in the preview Maryland really poses some matchup difficulties for us. They defend the shot well and don't turn the ball over, two traits that have bothered us a lot this season. We still have the ability to get into the NCAA tournament. Let's see if the team can bounce back in Tallahassee.
I'm going to disagree a little with ClemBen here. I think we can say with some certainty now that Maryland is a good team. Not final-four caliber, but the sweet sixteen isn't a stretch this year for Gary Williams & Co. I think as a Clemson fan the game went about as well as you could hope for. We were aggressive in the beginning, particularly on offense. Gary Williams came out pressing us, probably hoping to slow our offense down like in the first meeting. I was impressed, Clemson showed a real ability to attack Maryland's pressure, getting down the court and finding open shots. With Maryland unable to get set in their defense, they were even worse than normal defending the offensive glass, leading to quite a few easy points. When Gary Williams dialed down the pressure and started setting his team back in the halfcourt, we stopped getting the open three-point looks. With Jerai Grant only playing 9 minutes, Trevor Booker looked really tired in the second half and wasn't able to fight for position on the blocks. Those two factors really combined to stunt the offense in the second half, and it slowly slipped away from Clemson. I really think Jerai Grant's fifth foul with about 11:00 minutes left was the death knell. Without an extra body to fight for the offensive rebounds and spell T. Booker, we were in deep trouble even if we were still clinging to a lead at the time.
On the other side of the ball, Maryland's offense really just overwhelmed us. If they hadn't missed so many point-blank shots in the first half they might have hung a hundred on us. Thinking back to the second half, it's hard to remember us getting any stops at all. I can remember Maryland throwing the ball away a couple of times, but we could not stop the sets Gary Williams was throwing at us. They had a great designed play where Vasquez gave the ball up at the three point line to Tucker who was running a curling around to shed his defender, and knowing that Smith would turn his back and follow Vasquez under the hoop, Tucker ran right behind Smith using him as shield to get three feet from the hoop. That's what you get from watching the tapes.
My only critique of Clemson's play is to wonder why we didn't abandon the press earlier in the first half--Maryland was really shredding the pressure from the opening tip. I can appreciate Purnell's desire to be aggressive and create some opportunities in a game we didn't have much of a chance to win, but I would have preferred to see Clemson concentrate on the half court after we built that big lead. That would have at least forced Maryland to fight for some of its points instead of allowing them to pretty effortlessly whittle down the lead in the waning minutes of the first half.
Now the pressure shifts back on us to win two of the last three. I wouldn't take this game as an indication of how we will perform the rest of the way; as I discussed in the preview Maryland really poses some matchup difficulties for us. They defend the shot well and don't turn the ball over, two traits that have bothered us a lot this season. We still have the ability to get into the NCAA tournament. Let's see if the team can bounce back in Tallahassee.
Wednesday, 24 February 2010
A Tale of Two Halves: Rants and Raves
Well we started the game hot and shot lights out from three point land in the first half. Noel Johnson, Andre Young in particular. Grant got some bogus foul calls but Booker played really awful in the second half--why did he take 3, 3-pointers in the second half? I think our real problem in this game is the same problem we have had all year, mind numbing turnovers. How many times do I see Stitt dribble the ball off his own foot or try to split the D and lose his dribble. It is simple fundamentals. Smith had another awful game and we went away from the inside play too quickly in the second half. It is a shame to see what Clemson can be this year, their potential finally coming through, with the first half and then see what they really are in the second half.
Now playing at Maryland isn't easy but it is not like Maryland is this amazing team. The way the announcers on the Clemson network were calling it, Maryland was like a final four contender or something. We got burned on a ton of Maryland offensive sets, they caught us backdoor like eight times and let Vasquez become the assist man. Gary had a good game plan offensively. The press got shredded and in the span of four Maryland possessions we went from being tied to down by ten. I liked OP's use of the timeouts but once again we folded and didn't have the mental toughness. Disappointing loss and we now need to win 2/3 to feel good about an automatic NCAA bid.
Now playing at Maryland isn't easy but it is not like Maryland is this amazing team. The way the announcers on the Clemson network were calling it, Maryland was like a final four contender or something. We got burned on a ton of Maryland offensive sets, they caught us backdoor like eight times and let Vasquez become the assist man. Gary had a good game plan offensively. The press got shredded and in the span of four Maryland possessions we went from being tied to down by ten. I liked OP's use of the timeouts but once again we folded and didn't have the mental toughness. Disappointing loss and we now need to win 2/3 to feel good about an automatic NCAA bid.
Monday, 22 February 2010
Maryland Preview
Clemson vs. Maryland, 02/24, 9:00pm, Comcast Center
A couple of days ago I outlined Clemson's needs approaching the final four games of the season. They probably need two wins to be absolutely sure of an NCAA tournament bid that will likely land them, assuming a single win in the ACC tournament, a 7 seed in the tournament. As an aside, most "bracketologists" I've seen are putting six ACC teams in the tournament, but only Duke is ranked higher than 6. It's absurd.
Perhaps no team is getting burned as badly by bracket gurus than Maryland. On paper, I see this as a 3/4 team right now. Not much room to improve nor much of a threat to reach the elite eight, but still a lot better than the present perception. On the other hand, Clemson fans can be forgiven for doubting my assessment given Maryland's absolutely pathetic performance at Littlejohn a scant 3 1/2 weeks ago. Normally I would try to point out the kind of adjustments I would expect the two teams to make based on their first meeting, but since both teams played well beneath their abilities I have a feeling both coaches will more or less throw the tape in the garbage and draw a plan for this game based on an updated version of the first game.
In other words, I feel the same way I did before the last game--Maryland is a good team that poses matchup problems for us. In addition, it's going to be difficult to go into one of the more hostile environments in the league in front of re-energized fanbase and pull off the upset. Maryland is a team with a balanced offensive approach. They particularly excel at shooting the three and not turning the ball over. There only weakness is an inability to get to the line, but when they do get there they shoot at a 71% clip. Their defense, while not among the ACC elites, is still ranked 25th in the country by Kenpom.com. Most of their strength on defense is derived from holding opponents to a 40% 2-point FG%. Clemson can score points against Maryland by doing two things: 1) knock down some three pointers (Maryland is about league-average in defending the three) and 2) crashing the offensive boards. I talked about this before the last game, but Gary Williams has never been too concerned with giving up the occasional offensive rebound. Jerai Grant, we'll need you tonight.
The good news is that because we are clearly the underdog tonight, there's not a whole lot on the line for Clemson. We have to get a road win at some point, but we'll have better chances later on at both FSU and Wake Forest. I expect Purnell to instruct his players to be a little more aggressive in the early going, overplay on defense by trying to jump passes in the half-court while trying to get Tanner Smith to knock Vasquez off his game again. On offense, we might see a barrage of early three pointers if we're getting even semi-open looks. If we create a few breaks, it could keep us in the game going into the final five minutes. If we don't we'll be down 15 points in a game we were supposed to lose and the freshmen will get some valuable playing time. Either way, GO TIGERS!!!!!
A couple of days ago I outlined Clemson's needs approaching the final four games of the season. They probably need two wins to be absolutely sure of an NCAA tournament bid that will likely land them, assuming a single win in the ACC tournament, a 7 seed in the tournament. As an aside, most "bracketologists" I've seen are putting six ACC teams in the tournament, but only Duke is ranked higher than 6. It's absurd.
Perhaps no team is getting burned as badly by bracket gurus than Maryland. On paper, I see this as a 3/4 team right now. Not much room to improve nor much of a threat to reach the elite eight, but still a lot better than the present perception. On the other hand, Clemson fans can be forgiven for doubting my assessment given Maryland's absolutely pathetic performance at Littlejohn a scant 3 1/2 weeks ago. Normally I would try to point out the kind of adjustments I would expect the two teams to make based on their first meeting, but since both teams played well beneath their abilities I have a feeling both coaches will more or less throw the tape in the garbage and draw a plan for this game based on an updated version of the first game.
In other words, I feel the same way I did before the last game--Maryland is a good team that poses matchup problems for us. In addition, it's going to be difficult to go into one of the more hostile environments in the league in front of re-energized fanbase and pull off the upset. Maryland is a team with a balanced offensive approach. They particularly excel at shooting the three and not turning the ball over. There only weakness is an inability to get to the line, but when they do get there they shoot at a 71% clip. Their defense, while not among the ACC elites, is still ranked 25th in the country by Kenpom.com. Most of their strength on defense is derived from holding opponents to a 40% 2-point FG%. Clemson can score points against Maryland by doing two things: 1) knock down some three pointers (Maryland is about league-average in defending the three) and 2) crashing the offensive boards. I talked about this before the last game, but Gary Williams has never been too concerned with giving up the occasional offensive rebound. Jerai Grant, we'll need you tonight.
The good news is that because we are clearly the underdog tonight, there's not a whole lot on the line for Clemson. We have to get a road win at some point, but we'll have better chances later on at both FSU and Wake Forest. I expect Purnell to instruct his players to be a little more aggressive in the early going, overplay on defense by trying to jump passes in the half-court while trying to get Tanner Smith to knock Vasquez off his game again. On offense, we might see a barrage of early three pointers if we're getting even semi-open looks. If we create a few breaks, it could keep us in the game going into the final five minutes. If we don't we'll be down 15 points in a game we were supposed to lose and the freshmen will get some valuable playing time. Either way, GO TIGERS!!!!!
Monday, 1 February 2010
Maryland Recap
I'm going to do these recaps as often as possible during the ACC season, similar to what I was doing last year...
Good ugly game for Clemson. I think there will be a lot of talk about how neither Clemson or Maryland played well. While I agree to a certain extent (Clemson has not played well on offense for more than 10 minutes at a time for three games running...), I would point out that while there was an abundant amount of sloppy play, part of this can be explained by both teams having excellent defenses. Both teams played to there strengths on defense, Clemson forcing turnovers against a normally surehanded Maryland team (it looked like the press really rattled a few of their younger players) while Maryland held us to 31% from the field. I thought one difference on defense was the job Clemson did in limiting Maryland's easy opportunities after breaking the press and also defending the shot well in the halfcourt set. I don't care how bad the other team looked, holding a good shooting team like Maryland to 36%is something to be happy about. To the chart:
(I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
Clemson also won because they took advantage of the primary weakness in Maryland's defense I pointed out in the preview: their inability to keep teams off the offensive glass. Clemson racked up enough boards to keep possessions alive and give us second chances, helping to compensate for the low low field goal percentage. Gary Williams' team have never been great on keeping teams off the offensive glass and from watching them its easy to see why: Maryland likes to challenge shots with two or three guys while treating the rebounds as secondary. Its not necessarily a bad strategy, heck, Purnell employs the same strategy, albeit to a possibly lesser degree, for Clemson. But tonight Maryland ran into Jerai Grant. I don't talk about Grant a lot, and even take a few not-so-subtle jabs at him from time to time, but I give him credit for seizing an opportunity to perform last night. Grant's best skill is probably picking up offensive boards (and points resulting from these boards), but he often gets overpowered or outjumped when playing against a team with considerable inside size and/or heft. Last night, though, he was playing a team that struggles to stop his best attribute as a player, and he made them pay. It will be interesting to see if Maryland goes after Grant next time we play to try and put him in some early foul trouble and take him out of the game.
It was a must win situation and despite the generally close score throughout, I was never too worried about the final result. Good, physical performance by the Tigers. Virginia Tech is actually a team with a somewhat similar defensive profile to Maryland, but lacks the good offense. Based on last night's performance, I think we've got a good chance of winning on the road this weekend and getting back on the right side of .500 in ACC play.
Good ugly game for Clemson. I think there will be a lot of talk about how neither Clemson or Maryland played well. While I agree to a certain extent (Clemson has not played well on offense for more than 10 minutes at a time for three games running...), I would point out that while there was an abundant amount of sloppy play, part of this can be explained by both teams having excellent defenses. Both teams played to there strengths on defense, Clemson forcing turnovers against a normally surehanded Maryland team (it looked like the press really rattled a few of their younger players) while Maryland held us to 31% from the field. I thought one difference on defense was the job Clemson did in limiting Maryland's easy opportunities after breaking the press and also defending the shot well in the halfcourt set. I don't care how bad the other team looked, holding a good shooting team like Maryland to 36%is something to be happy about. To the chart:
(I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
Clemson also won because they took advantage of the primary weakness in Maryland's defense I pointed out in the preview: their inability to keep teams off the offensive glass. Clemson racked up enough boards to keep possessions alive and give us second chances, helping to compensate for the low low field goal percentage. Gary Williams' team have never been great on keeping teams off the offensive glass and from watching them its easy to see why: Maryland likes to challenge shots with two or three guys while treating the rebounds as secondary. Its not necessarily a bad strategy, heck, Purnell employs the same strategy, albeit to a possibly lesser degree, for Clemson. But tonight Maryland ran into Jerai Grant. I don't talk about Grant a lot, and even take a few not-so-subtle jabs at him from time to time, but I give him credit for seizing an opportunity to perform last night. Grant's best skill is probably picking up offensive boards (and points resulting from these boards), but he often gets overpowered or outjumped when playing against a team with considerable inside size and/or heft. Last night, though, he was playing a team that struggles to stop his best attribute as a player, and he made them pay. It will be interesting to see if Maryland goes after Grant next time we play to try and put him in some early foul trouble and take him out of the game.
It was a must win situation and despite the generally close score throughout, I was never too worried about the final result. Good, physical performance by the Tigers. Virginia Tech is actually a team with a somewhat similar defensive profile to Maryland, but lacks the good offense. Based on last night's performance, I think we've got a good chance of winning on the road this weekend and getting back on the right side of .500 in ACC play.
Saturday, 30 January 2010
Maryland Preview
Maryland at Clemson, 1/31, 5:30pm, Littlejohn
Two teams have been pegged in the early going as ACC surprises: Maryland and Virginia. While Virginia is improved from last year (not too hard considering they were the worst team in the league), they have been the beneficiary of a soft early schedule (with a notable victory of Georgia Tech at home). Maryland, on the other hand, looks like its the real deal; I expect them to be battling with Duke for the championship come season's end. It certainly didn't appear to start that way--losses on neutral courts to Wisconsin, Cincinnati, and Villanova don't seem too bad now, particularly given the way Villanova and Wisconsin have played since and given that the games were closer than the scores might indicate. But the home loss to William & Mary on December 30th put the Terps in the back of my mind when it came to sorting out ACC contenders at the beginning of the ACC season.
Since then, however, Maryland has been on a tear; losing only a tough road game to Wake Forest in overtime by two points. There statistical profile is insanely strong right now, as a team they have very little in the way of glaring weakness, playing defense and offense on par with some of the best teams in the country. Its easily the best squad Gary Williams has fielded since 2007. How did this happen?
I point to three reasons: 1) the continued development of Greivis Vasquez, 2) the emergence of Sean Mosely, and 3) the underneath play of freshman Jordan Williams. Vasquez continues to shed the label of overhyped Terrapin by logging his fourth consecutive improved season. He's always been a good passer and decent shooter, but his first two years he constantly turned the ball over. This year he's retained the reduction in turnovers that we noticed last season. At the same time, he's shooting the ball better from behind the arc than ever in his career (~39% vs ~32%) and he's playing better defense. Meanwhile, Sean Mosely has turned into a scorer this season, a guy who drives to the basket without turning the ball over, makes shots, picks up fouls, and has a decent three-point stroke to boot. Jordan Williams has anchored an inside defense that ranks #6 in the country in defending the two-point shot (could be a long night for Trevor Booker).
This is a tough matchup for Clemson. Maryland does not turn the ball over and they hold opposing offenses to a low FG% against--two of the team traits that I think gave Clemson real problems against Duke. If Clemson wants to win, they will have to rely on their halfcourt defense to slow down the Maryland offense, which is probably too much to ask given the points Maryland is going to rack up in transition against the press. That means they'll have to play better on offense. They will need to make some three-point shots (Maryland's FG% against is driven almost entirely by their defense against the two-point shot) and then crash the boards. Maryland's one weakness is giving up too much height on the frontline after Jordan Williams, which can lead to a lot of offensive boards. I expect the game to be close, but Purnell will have probably need to ease off the press early on to make sure we don't dig ourselves into an insurmountable hole. And if the threes aren't falling again...
On top of all of this Clemson has to deal with Gary Williams. This is the coach that broke down our defense for the whole league to see last year, so I'm not eager to see what he's got this time. It will be interesting to see whether he opts to apply some token pressure like GT and BC to eat up Clemson's game clock on offense to reduce the already long amount of time we need to find a halfway-decent look at the basket.
Goes without saying, Tigers need to win some games people aren't expecting them to win. Kenpom has us projected for an 8-8 finish, which I think is a little optimistic--I might lean towards 7-9 right now. Either way, that's good for about an 8th place finish in the league--and there ain't gonna be 8 ACC teams in the tourney. LET'S GO TIGERS!!!
Two teams have been pegged in the early going as ACC surprises: Maryland and Virginia. While Virginia is improved from last year (not too hard considering they were the worst team in the league), they have been the beneficiary of a soft early schedule (with a notable victory of Georgia Tech at home). Maryland, on the other hand, looks like its the real deal; I expect them to be battling with Duke for the championship come season's end. It certainly didn't appear to start that way--losses on neutral courts to Wisconsin, Cincinnati, and Villanova don't seem too bad now, particularly given the way Villanova and Wisconsin have played since and given that the games were closer than the scores might indicate. But the home loss to William & Mary on December 30th put the Terps in the back of my mind when it came to sorting out ACC contenders at the beginning of the ACC season.
Since then, however, Maryland has been on a tear; losing only a tough road game to Wake Forest in overtime by two points. There statistical profile is insanely strong right now, as a team they have very little in the way of glaring weakness, playing defense and offense on par with some of the best teams in the country. Its easily the best squad Gary Williams has fielded since 2007. How did this happen?
I point to three reasons: 1) the continued development of Greivis Vasquez, 2) the emergence of Sean Mosely, and 3) the underneath play of freshman Jordan Williams. Vasquez continues to shed the label of overhyped Terrapin by logging his fourth consecutive improved season. He's always been a good passer and decent shooter, but his first two years he constantly turned the ball over. This year he's retained the reduction in turnovers that we noticed last season. At the same time, he's shooting the ball better from behind the arc than ever in his career (~39% vs ~32%) and he's playing better defense. Meanwhile, Sean Mosely has turned into a scorer this season, a guy who drives to the basket without turning the ball over, makes shots, picks up fouls, and has a decent three-point stroke to boot. Jordan Williams has anchored an inside defense that ranks #6 in the country in defending the two-point shot (could be a long night for Trevor Booker).
This is a tough matchup for Clemson. Maryland does not turn the ball over and they hold opposing offenses to a low FG% against--two of the team traits that I think gave Clemson real problems against Duke. If Clemson wants to win, they will have to rely on their halfcourt defense to slow down the Maryland offense, which is probably too much to ask given the points Maryland is going to rack up in transition against the press. That means they'll have to play better on offense. They will need to make some three-point shots (Maryland's FG% against is driven almost entirely by their defense against the two-point shot) and then crash the boards. Maryland's one weakness is giving up too much height on the frontline after Jordan Williams, which can lead to a lot of offensive boards. I expect the game to be close, but Purnell will have probably need to ease off the press early on to make sure we don't dig ourselves into an insurmountable hole. And if the threes aren't falling again...
On top of all of this Clemson has to deal with Gary Williams. This is the coach that broke down our defense for the whole league to see last year, so I'm not eager to see what he's got this time. It will be interesting to see whether he opts to apply some token pressure like GT and BC to eat up Clemson's game clock on offense to reduce the already long amount of time we need to find a halfway-decent look at the basket.
Goes without saying, Tigers need to win some games people aren't expecting them to win. Kenpom has us projected for an 8-8 finish, which I think is a little optimistic--I might lean towards 7-9 right now. Either way, that's good for about an 8th place finish in the league--and there ain't gonna be 8 ACC teams in the tourney. LET'S GO TIGERS!!!
Friday, 9 October 2009
FEI Week 5; Bye Week Edition
Best thing about a bye week: well, nothing really. Particularly coming off an embarrassing loss. At least we have time to perfect our nearly-perfect offensive execution. So, any early thoughts on how we look come gametime next Saturday? I'm thinking it could either be much worse on offense or about the same, depending on whether the coaches completely lose the players. My guess is Swinney pulls off his best motivational effort yet: instead of getting much worse, we simply remain mediocre. But I'm the realist side of the blog, see ClemBen's post below if you want a sunnier take on the situation.
Anyways, FEI is out. If you're wondering why I'm interested in this ranking system, see my initial post here. Clemson tumbles yet again, this time from #14 to #22. Maryland rose all of three notches, from #90 to #87. I'm not sure I'm understanding the logic here. The ACC lands two top five teams, VT and Miami at #3 and #4, respectively. Actually, the Coastal Division is actually looking pretty respectable. Unfortunately for us, here's a SAT-style analogy that about sums things up: Coastal Division:American League :: Atlantic Division:National League.
Ken Massey has us dropping all the way down from #29 to #44. I'd say that's about right.
Anyways, FEI is out. If you're wondering why I'm interested in this ranking system, see my initial post here. Clemson tumbles yet again, this time from #14 to #22. Maryland rose all of three notches, from #90 to #87. I'm not sure I'm understanding the logic here. The ACC lands two top five teams, VT and Miami at #3 and #4, respectively. Actually, the Coastal Division is actually looking pretty respectable. Unfortunately for us, here's a SAT-style analogy that about sums things up: Coastal Division:American League :: Atlantic Division:National League.
Ken Massey has us dropping all the way down from #29 to #44. I'd say that's about right.
Thursday, 8 October 2009
Good Vibrations: For All Those Who Still Want To Believe
I havent been able to shake the utter disappointment from the Maryland game but I have found quiet hope and seen a glimmer of redemption in the simple fact that the Atlantic division is just awful this year. VT, GT, and Miami are superior teams right now--well lets hope GT is, and Virginia and Duke will beat someone in the Atlantic. So the point is that the winner of the Atlantic will assuredly have 2 losses but will more likely have three or four. So its going to be crowded and its going to come down to head to head records. Lets project two games into the future, shall we...
BC is the current front-runner--wait, the same BC we held to 50 yrds of offense and beat?? This is good for us bc BC plays/loses to VT this week and then plays NC State the next which is a toss-up. They will have at least two losses then, one of them to us!! We probably want State to win, bc the BC schedule then becomes the easiest of the remaining teams. NC the only remaining really tough game. So BC may have a 5-3 record in the conference 4-4 not out of the question.
Next threat is NC State--Tom O'Brien what is going on? They are 0-1 but a better team than they showed against Wake, probably the most dangerous team in terms of talent and coaching but lucky for us they have a tough schedule remaining--the play Duke this week and then BC the next but also have VT and NC. It would really help us if NC steps it up and can beat the majority of the Atlantic teams they play. I can easily see them being 5-3 or 4-4. Clemson needs to hold the tie breaker though.
Wake is very unpredictable. It seems to depend on the mood of Riley Skinner so I'm having a tough time placing them. They are 1-1 in conference and will play Maryland before playing us. If they beat Maryland we have to beat them but they do play Miami and GT which seem like two losses and an FSU team playing for Bowdens life so I think the losses will be there 5-3, 4-4.
Maryland is scary to me. They suck and we shouldnt have lost to them, but they have the weakest schedule in the division playing Duke and Virginia and then VT. Most teams are going to go 1-2 OOC but Maryland could go 2-1. We dont have the tie breaker so it feels more comfortable if they go 4-4, 5-3 spells doom. They play Wake and then Virginia so they could be 2-1 or 3-0 after next week.
Who would have thought we would be talking about FSU as the gutter dwellers of the pathetic Atlantic division. Things look even worse playing GT and at NC in the next two weeks. I dont think the 0-2 Noles are that bad a team but that loss to BC is mindbottling (thank you Will Ferrell), and I cant see them recovering to finish on top.
So there you have it. It looks like everyone is headed for 4-4 seasons. If Clemson can beat Wake, State, and FSU it can stand to lose to Miami and still come out on top. Unless Maryland gets crazy...
There is still hope Tiger fans and at least the defense is good. Can anyone imagine the absolute catastrophe this season would have been without CJ?? I mean its ugly enough already...
BC is the current front-runner--wait, the same BC we held to 50 yrds of offense and beat?? This is good for us bc BC plays/loses to VT this week and then plays NC State the next which is a toss-up. They will have at least two losses then, one of them to us!! We probably want State to win, bc the BC schedule then becomes the easiest of the remaining teams. NC the only remaining really tough game. So BC may have a 5-3 record in the conference 4-4 not out of the question.
Next threat is NC State--Tom O'Brien what is going on? They are 0-1 but a better team than they showed against Wake, probably the most dangerous team in terms of talent and coaching but lucky for us they have a tough schedule remaining--the play Duke this week and then BC the next but also have VT and NC. It would really help us if NC steps it up and can beat the majority of the Atlantic teams they play. I can easily see them being 5-3 or 4-4. Clemson needs to hold the tie breaker though.
Wake is very unpredictable. It seems to depend on the mood of Riley Skinner so I'm having a tough time placing them. They are 1-1 in conference and will play Maryland before playing us. If they beat Maryland we have to beat them but they do play Miami and GT which seem like two losses and an FSU team playing for Bowdens life so I think the losses will be there 5-3, 4-4.
Maryland is scary to me. They suck and we shouldnt have lost to them, but they have the weakest schedule in the division playing Duke and Virginia and then VT. Most teams are going to go 1-2 OOC but Maryland could go 2-1. We dont have the tie breaker so it feels more comfortable if they go 4-4, 5-3 spells doom. They play Wake and then Virginia so they could be 2-1 or 3-0 after next week.
Who would have thought we would be talking about FSU as the gutter dwellers of the pathetic Atlantic division. Things look even worse playing GT and at NC in the next two weeks. I dont think the 0-2 Noles are that bad a team but that loss to BC is mindbottling (thank you Will Ferrell), and I cant see them recovering to finish on top.
So there you have it. It looks like everyone is headed for 4-4 seasons. If Clemson can beat Wake, State, and FSU it can stand to lose to Miami and still come out on top. Unless Maryland gets crazy...
There is still hope Tiger fans and at least the defense is good. Can anyone imagine the absolute catastrophe this season would have been without CJ?? I mean its ugly enough already...
Monday, 5 October 2009
Maryland Recap
Time to comment on the debacle that was last Saturday. In some ways, I'm reminded of Tommy Bowden's 2006 VT debacle. Both games on the road that reminded us that even with excellent talent at skill positions, without adequate coaching it doesn't matter. And those friggin' all-white jerseys. The comparison falls apart after anything more than a cursory inspection, mainly because VT was a good team, and Maryland, not so much.
Let's lay this out right now: the season is over. We can now officially start looking forward to destroying USuCk in Columbia and maybe, just maybe, losing to another perennially-underperforming program in some middling bowl game that's too embarrassing to mention to your non-Clemson rooting friends. But, but, you say everyone else lost last week, too. Everything is still up for grabs, you say. To which I respond: we still need to finish 5-0 in ACC play to ensure capturing the ACC championship. 4-1 gets you in the conversation, if you're lucky and the only loss is to Miami. After last Wednesday, though, does anyone honestly think we can finish 4-1? ...3-2, even? Before you answer, remind yourself that we just got pushed around by Maryland. I'd say 2-3 is the more realistic scenario, with wins against Virginia and one of either Wake, NC State, of FSU.
On the plus side, what this loss does is to divorce me from the all-consuming fan-based passion that comes when I watch the games. I can now sit back and view them with a more rational mind, almost like I was watching any other old team on a Saturday afternoon. I suspect this is because its become too painful to watch as a real fan.
Defense
The redeeming value of watching this team. I was a little bit upset that Steele hadn't adjusted for the slant routes (although in fairness, Clemson did manage to at least try and jump the routes a couple of times) or the QB keeper. Because Maryland sure scouted the TCU game and decided to alter its playbook to take advantage of weaknesses. I know people are singing Ralph Friedgen's praises up in College Park this last weekend, but really, its nothing special. Its called watching the tapes and making adjustments. Its also called "coaching" in some regions. What's the exact opposite of singing praises? "Screaming damnations", maybe? (Hey, good name for an indie metal band!) That's what should be going on because we weren't ready for Maryland to do the same thing TCU pulled on us. Yeah, we looked better in the second half, but I think that had more to do with Friedgen going super-conservative on offense after the midpoint of the third quarter (ridiculous 4th-down call notwithstanding). Sure, we managed to shut them down but its not hard for our defense when the playcalling is as follows: run up the middle, run up the middle, swing pass or run up the middle.
Special Teams
Coverage was strong, except for that one that Zimmerman managed to crush 20 yards or whatever. I put that one on the punter, the ball has to at least go in the vicinity of where the coverage is going. As for the returns, what can you say about CJ Spiller? That was a jaw-dropping run that's currently making the rounds on pro team blogs already planning for a top ten pick in next years draft. Jackson missed the field goals when it counted, staving off the Treadwell comparisons, perhaps for good. But as has been hashed out here and elsewhere, if you're going to run a set of plays that basically concedes any chance at positive yardage to the other team, the least you can do is gradually move the ball to the middle of the field.(**Unless, of course, Jackson tells the coaches he prefers it on the right hash, then this is a stupid and under-informed criticism).
Finally, hats off to Friedgen for finding a punter at the back of the bench who could kick the ball away from Spiller. This is what all coaches should be doing, but luckily these kind of punters aren't that frequent at the college level.
Offense
Here's a snap-shot of Napier's general playcalling decision tree:
1st: Run ---> 2nd: Pass (WR screen unless you want to do one on third down) ----> 3rd: Pass (WR screen unless it was done in 2nd down. Can't be too predictable here.)
Notice how the decision tree doesn't branch at all. That's a problem.
Anyways: Ugh. Why should I put in any effort here when the coaches apparently aren't bothering either? Instead, let me quote from a post last week:
Major Coaching Decisions
Where did that timeout on the two-minute conversion come from? Sure, it ended up working out for the Tigers, but that's a terrible call in my book every time. Take the five yard penalty and kick the extra point. Unless of course, Swinney has about as much faith in the offense as I do.
Final bullet-point thoughts that didn't fit anywhere above:
Let's lay this out right now: the season is over. We can now officially start looking forward to destroying USuCk in Columbia and maybe, just maybe, losing to another perennially-underperforming program in some middling bowl game that's too embarrassing to mention to your non-Clemson rooting friends. But, but, you say everyone else lost last week, too. Everything is still up for grabs, you say. To which I respond: we still need to finish 5-0 in ACC play to ensure capturing the ACC championship. 4-1 gets you in the conversation, if you're lucky and the only loss is to Miami. After last Wednesday, though, does anyone honestly think we can finish 4-1? ...3-2, even? Before you answer, remind yourself that we just got pushed around by Maryland. I'd say 2-3 is the more realistic scenario, with wins against Virginia and one of either Wake, NC State, of FSU.
On the plus side, what this loss does is to divorce me from the all-consuming fan-based passion that comes when I watch the games. I can now sit back and view them with a more rational mind, almost like I was watching any other old team on a Saturday afternoon. I suspect this is because its become too painful to watch as a real fan.
Defense
The redeeming value of watching this team. I was a little bit upset that Steele hadn't adjusted for the slant routes (although in fairness, Clemson did manage to at least try and jump the routes a couple of times) or the QB keeper. Because Maryland sure scouted the TCU game and decided to alter its playbook to take advantage of weaknesses. I know people are singing Ralph Friedgen's praises up in College Park this last weekend, but really, its nothing special. Its called watching the tapes and making adjustments. Its also called "coaching" in some regions. What's the exact opposite of singing praises? "Screaming damnations", maybe? (Hey, good name for an indie metal band!) That's what should be going on because we weren't ready for Maryland to do the same thing TCU pulled on us. Yeah, we looked better in the second half, but I think that had more to do with Friedgen going super-conservative on offense after the midpoint of the third quarter (ridiculous 4th-down call notwithstanding). Sure, we managed to shut them down but its not hard for our defense when the playcalling is as follows: run up the middle, run up the middle, swing pass or run up the middle.
Special Teams
Coverage was strong, except for that one that Zimmerman managed to crush 20 yards or whatever. I put that one on the punter, the ball has to at least go in the vicinity of where the coverage is going. As for the returns, what can you say about CJ Spiller? That was a jaw-dropping run that's currently making the rounds on pro team blogs already planning for a top ten pick in next years draft. Jackson missed the field goals when it counted, staving off the Treadwell comparisons, perhaps for good. But as has been hashed out here and elsewhere, if you're going to run a set of plays that basically concedes any chance at positive yardage to the other team, the least you can do is gradually move the ball to the middle of the field.(**Unless, of course, Jackson tells the coaches he prefers it on the right hash, then this is a stupid and under-informed criticism).
Finally, hats off to Friedgen for finding a punter at the back of the bench who could kick the ball away from Spiller. This is what all coaches should be doing, but luckily these kind of punters aren't that frequent at the college level.
Offense
Here's a snap-shot of Napier's general playcalling decision tree:
1st: Run ---> 2nd: Pass (WR screen unless you want to do one on third down) ----> 3rd: Pass (WR screen unless it was done in 2nd down. Can't be too predictable here.)
Notice how the decision tree doesn't branch at all. That's a problem.
Anyways: Ugh. Why should I put in any effort here when the coaches apparently aren't bothering either? Instead, let me quote from a post last week:
This was meant as something of a hyperbole, but after last Saturday, can this be questioned? Okay, it does short-shrift Michael Palmer, god bless his TE-receiving ways, but what does it say that our TE is the only other viable option on offense after Spiller and Ford? I think it says we've had terrible coaching on the line, the WR position, the playcalling, and even now we can start worrying about the QB position as Kyle Parker continues to struggle with telegraphed passes and throwing off his back foot. The most troubling aspect of it all, as DrB has been stressing since Saturday, is that there is no improvement week-to-week. Zero. There may really be something to this ridiculously drummed up Spiller-for-Heisman thing. Without Spiller, we'd probably be 1-4 or maybe 0-5, looking at a 2-9 or 3-8 season. When one player is worth 2-4 wins all on his own, that's insanely valuable.In all meaningful games we've played to date, our offense (and I mean that in terms of offensive output, not offensive design) has consisted almost entirely of CJ Spiller or Jacoby Ford getting the ball in space and using their superior athletic abilities to gobble up large chunks of yardage.
Major Coaching Decisions
Where did that timeout on the two-minute conversion come from? Sure, it ended up working out for the Tigers, but that's a terrible call in my book every time. Take the five yard penalty and kick the extra point. Unless of course, Swinney has about as much faith in the offense as I do.
Final bullet-point thoughts that didn't fit anywhere above:
- Terrible call on the Maryland TD before the half, but yeah...who cares?
- 2-minute drill killed us, both Maryland's execution and our complete lack of one. Sure, we looked okay for at least a couple of plays at the end of the game, but that struck me as some improvised good fortune for the most part.
- it looks like they are in some kind of maximum protect on offense, which stifled our D-line. That puts a lot of pressure on our secondary and LBs since we key off the line play so much. Could be a template for coaches in the weeks to come. Lord knows they won't have to worry about us adjusting.
- Tall, athletic receivers are seeing some success against our CBs
- Willy Korn finally showed a flash of what people must have liked so much about him. Nice ~10 yard run. It's a small sample size, but one knock on him coming out of high school was a lack of pocket presence. He's no Will Proctor back there, but this looks like one area where Parker has a small edge.
- Not-so-daring prediction: now we really will start seeing more of Korn with the season effectively over.
- I've liked some of the last few Clemson "come to our school" ads, but I don't get the new one. Why is Clemson one of the best public universities? I guess the answer is essentially old guys at graduation ceremonies and athletics.
- Don't think I've ever heard a more unprepared announcing duo than the guys on ESPNU last Saturday. The only background they brought into the game was Friedgen's new diet.
Saturday, 3 October 2009
ACC Refs?? Are you Kidding Me? Halftime Contempt
What good is instant replay if it cant overturn a ball sitting on the ground. Thats the worst call I have ever seen, it was so obvious that the ball hit the ground before he moved the ball and had possession. What the heck is our vaunted defense doing?? Our CB's are playing awful getting beat left and right...Two of the best in the country allow Turner to absolutely shred them in the second quarter and then the slowest guy on the field, who isnt a runner is the new secret weapon?? What is going on...I want to see some serious adjustments at half.
On offense, WR's suck...Parker is getting rattled...he threw a great deep ball at the end of the half that the WR just watched get intercepted. Make a play on the ball...Our Oline is the one that cant keep from going offsides on two straight plays?? This is a classic lame game against Maryland--they have some weapons and they are putting it together against us, beautiful...
Dabo will have some serious questions to answer if they lose this game...mainly why he was hired and not Bud Foster DC at VT.
On offense, WR's suck...Parker is getting rattled...he threw a great deep ball at the end of the half that the WR just watched get intercepted. Make a play on the ball...Our Oline is the one that cant keep from going offsides on two straight plays?? This is a classic lame game against Maryland--they have some weapons and they are putting it together against us, beautiful...
Dabo will have some serious questions to answer if they lose this game...mainly why he was hired and not Bud Foster DC at VT.
Friday, 2 October 2009
Maryland Preview
Clemson vs. Maryland, 10/03, 12:00pm, Byrd Stadium
Tigermax:
The home team hasn't won in this series since Clemson nipped a pretty bad Maryland team 10-7 back in 2004. The trend should absolutely continue this year. Maryland is looking like a truly horrible team with a chance at going winless in the ACC (the terps do have the advantage of hosting Virginia later in a couple of weeks, so all hope is not yet lost). On the other hand, the good news for the Terps is Friedgen and company have set the expectations so low that as long as they don't come out and set fire to the field, as in literally burning some old driftwood in the endzone, they can probably claim the game was a step in the right direction. As frustrating as the Bowden years were, at least things never got that low.
As long as Clemson doesn't come out stupidly overconfident and end up turning the ball over on their first, I don't know, 10 possessions, it should be a cakewalk. So what's in this for the average Clemson fan who can't make it to the game but is usually still sleeping at noon on a Saturday? I would go with the following: look for push from the offensive line to get a better idea of the level of crappy line play we have to play to establish a running game, improvements from the WRs, and look to see what Kyle Parker can do with some time and better conditions. Also, see if the offense can outscore the defense & special teams--this could actually be closer than the final margin separating Clemson and Maryland. And how could I nearly forget, bring on Willy Korn for the fourth quarter!!
In summary: don't screw this up Clemson.
Clemben:
Yeah the inexperienced O-Line for Maryland should spell their doom but this game makes me nervous because Ralph's job is on the line and he will be coaching like there is no tomorrow and that gives him a desperate tenacity you dont want to mess with in a close game. I would be saying blowout like I did against BC but Clemson has to right the ship offensively. I like going to Jaron Brown and shafting Dye and Clear. We used the TE's more last week but Ellington got no carries, and Harper is the weakest 'big back' I have ever seen. Diehl needs to get some handoffs...
So about Maryland--they have been turnover happy this year. Scott is a talented back but has like 5 fumbles and the QB Ponder has been making some bad decisions because of being rushed all day. Reminds me of the Cullen Harper syndrome, your as good as the oline in front of you. He has been forced to play too quickly and that has resulted in poor decision making with the ball. Most of the dangerous skill players are gone, but Maryland has always given Clemson fits. They are usually stronger in the second half of the season, but I cant shake the memory of needing big fourth quarter runs by Reggie Merriweather and last seasons collapse to feel secure about a blowout win.
Clemson by 10 in a game that feels tighter than it should be as our offense struggles again to score points....
Tigermax:
The home team hasn't won in this series since Clemson nipped a pretty bad Maryland team 10-7 back in 2004. The trend should absolutely continue this year. Maryland is looking like a truly horrible team with a chance at going winless in the ACC (the terps do have the advantage of hosting Virginia later in a couple of weeks, so all hope is not yet lost). On the other hand, the good news for the Terps is Friedgen and company have set the expectations so low that as long as they don't come out and set fire to the field, as in literally burning some old driftwood in the endzone, they can probably claim the game was a step in the right direction. As frustrating as the Bowden years were, at least things never got that low.
As long as Clemson doesn't come out stupidly overconfident and end up turning the ball over on their first, I don't know, 10 possessions, it should be a cakewalk. So what's in this for the average Clemson fan who can't make it to the game but is usually still sleeping at noon on a Saturday? I would go with the following: look for push from the offensive line to get a better idea of the level of crappy line play we have to play to establish a running game, improvements from the WRs, and look to see what Kyle Parker can do with some time and better conditions. Also, see if the offense can outscore the defense & special teams--this could actually be closer than the final margin separating Clemson and Maryland. And how could I nearly forget, bring on Willy Korn for the fourth quarter!!
In summary: don't screw this up Clemson.
Clemben:
Yeah the inexperienced O-Line for Maryland should spell their doom but this game makes me nervous because Ralph's job is on the line and he will be coaching like there is no tomorrow and that gives him a desperate tenacity you dont want to mess with in a close game. I would be saying blowout like I did against BC but Clemson has to right the ship offensively. I like going to Jaron Brown and shafting Dye and Clear. We used the TE's more last week but Ellington got no carries, and Harper is the weakest 'big back' I have ever seen. Diehl needs to get some handoffs...
So about Maryland--they have been turnover happy this year. Scott is a talented back but has like 5 fumbles and the QB Ponder has been making some bad decisions because of being rushed all day. Reminds me of the Cullen Harper syndrome, your as good as the oline in front of you. He has been forced to play too quickly and that has resulted in poor decision making with the ball. Most of the dangerous skill players are gone, but Maryland has always given Clemson fits. They are usually stronger in the second half of the season, but I cant shake the memory of needing big fourth quarter runs by Reggie Merriweather and last seasons collapse to feel secure about a blowout win.
Clemson by 10 in a game that feels tighter than it should be as our offense struggles again to score points....
Thursday, 1 October 2009
FEI Week 4
Another pitiful week for the ACC. Clemson, arguably acquitting itself the best in out-of-conference excitement, only drops four slots to #15. We're now ranked as the second best team in the country with two losses! Only Florida State comes out better, ranked #11. Why, you ask? Their losses have come at the hands of #9 Miami and #14 South Florida. Why are Miami and South Florida ranked so high? I have absolutely no idea...Florida bias, maybe? TCU moves all the way up to #10.
These rankings are still looking strange, but it's not like the Very Serious Polls (AP/Coaches) are performing any better. I still hold out hope FEI stabilizes in a few weeks to something a little more believable. Something we can all agree on, though: Maryland ranked #90. It's time for a rout.
Ken Massey's aggregate rankings have Clemson falling from #26 to #29, with Maryland at #97. It's time for a rout.
These rankings are still looking strange, but it's not like the Very Serious Polls (AP/Coaches) are performing any better. I still hold out hope FEI stabilizes in a few weeks to something a little more believable. Something we can all agree on, though: Maryland ranked #90. It's time for a rout.
Ken Massey's aggregate rankings have Clemson falling from #26 to #29, with Maryland at #97. It's time for a rout.
Tuesday, 29 September 2009
TCU Recap
Well, I've calmed down sufficiently to write something. But now I'm mired in the depression that always follows a loss, so we'll see how far I get. Who am I kidding? I've always got a reserve of deep-seated frustration to tap for these kind of posts.
Defense
Strong outing. Lost in all the post-game commentary is that TCU actually has a decent offense. Yes, TCU's passing game was hindered by the bad weather, lots of balls that probably should have been caught by TCU receivers (TCU more than made up for this with the lucky TD reception off the tipped ball and the once-in-a-lifetime catch made by Hicks on the second TD reception.) But the secondary looked good for the most part, I wish someone would have stepped up and and jumped a slant at some point, but for the most part they seemed content to play a little more conservatively, probably not a bad decision with the poor conditions. There's been lots of grumbling over the inability of the defense to adjust to the QB keeper, but looked to me like Clemson was focused on coverage and also wanted to keep the ball out of the running back's hands. The result was Dalton being left free on a few occasions to chew up some yardage, but TCU has a lot of weapons and if you're going to give them one, letting the slow QB carry the ball now and then isn't a bad idea.
Tackling watch: Not bad. I thought the defense looked a little tired at the end of the third quarter/beginning of the fourth quarter and it showed up in some lax tackling, the second level was getting dragged along for several extra yards at a time. Hard to blame them, though, since they were out on the field fo so long with our offense unable to muster a first down.
Offense
I'm gonna differ from most of the blogosphere here, and also ClemBen--I thought the playcalling was baffling at best. The scripted first drive was fine, but after that we were putting ourselves into too many third and longs. This resulted from: 1) too many pass plays and 2) too much running east to west and not north to south. Given the skill player strengths and experience in the offense, we should be calling at least a 55/45 run/pass ratio, particularly if we have the lead or its tied. After conditions worsened I wouldn't mind running this up to 65/35. Instead we were probably running the opposite (35/65 run to pass) to start the second half. Bizarre.
The good news is TCU has a good defense. Boston College has a good defense. The question becomes, what level of defensive crappiness is necessary for us to score regularly? If the answer is Middle Tennessee State, well, we should be able to score against Maryland, Virginia, and Coastal Carolina. If the answer is somewhere in between, we'll have a fighting chance against Miami, FSU, and NC State, as well. I should say the USuCk scares me at this point, but hey, Chicken Curse. I remain as confident as I am every year that we will stomp them into the ground. Mercilessly.
I already covered the red zone offense in the post below. As long as our offense struggles to move the ball anywhere on the field, I can't honestly think of why we should be expecting the offense to score once they get inside the magical twenty yard line. Its a fundamental problem with execution and inconsistent playcalling, not some failure to be "mentally tough enough" or some other garbage to score inside some arbitrarily-defined region of the field.
Special Teams
Good outing. I think we came back to earth a little after the last few great weeks, but we still got some solid returns and looked phenomenal in coverage. Can't ask for much more. Zimmerman's bad boot cost us at the end, but TCU's offense was able to move the ball enough at the end to put our backs against the end zone. And while Zimmerman had a great game up to that point, I think everyone in the stadium knew we were playing with house money on that last punt.
Major Coaching Decisions
Would have kicked the field goal. With the current state of our offense, we had a better chance at getting close enough to score two field goals then to suddenly gain the ability to catch a lob in the endzone. I'm not sure what makes Napier/Swinney think we had a chance to score a touchdown all of a sudden. I hope, hope, hope that Napier isn't on the sideline thinking, "Well, we've had so many chances up 'til now...somebody's gotta step up and make a big play sometime. Might as well be on 4th and 13 at the 16 yard line". Unfortunately, I haven't seen much of anything to indicate otherwise. Kick the field goal, take your three timeouts and entrust them to your better units, special teams and defense.
Can't wait to vicariously take out some frustration on Maryland this weekend.
Defense
Strong outing. Lost in all the post-game commentary is that TCU actually has a decent offense. Yes, TCU's passing game was hindered by the bad weather, lots of balls that probably should have been caught by TCU receivers (TCU more than made up for this with the lucky TD reception off the tipped ball and the once-in-a-lifetime catch made by Hicks on the second TD reception.) But the secondary looked good for the most part, I wish someone would have stepped up and and jumped a slant at some point, but for the most part they seemed content to play a little more conservatively, probably not a bad decision with the poor conditions. There's been lots of grumbling over the inability of the defense to adjust to the QB keeper, but looked to me like Clemson was focused on coverage and also wanted to keep the ball out of the running back's hands. The result was Dalton being left free on a few occasions to chew up some yardage, but TCU has a lot of weapons and if you're going to give them one, letting the slow QB carry the ball now and then isn't a bad idea.
Tackling watch: Not bad. I thought the defense looked a little tired at the end of the third quarter/beginning of the fourth quarter and it showed up in some lax tackling, the second level was getting dragged along for several extra yards at a time. Hard to blame them, though, since they were out on the field fo so long with our offense unable to muster a first down.
Offense
I'm gonna differ from most of the blogosphere here, and also ClemBen--I thought the playcalling was baffling at best. The scripted first drive was fine, but after that we were putting ourselves into too many third and longs. This resulted from: 1) too many pass plays and 2) too much running east to west and not north to south. Given the skill player strengths and experience in the offense, we should be calling at least a 55/45 run/pass ratio, particularly if we have the lead or its tied. After conditions worsened I wouldn't mind running this up to 65/35. Instead we were probably running the opposite (35/65 run to pass) to start the second half. Bizarre.
The good news is TCU has a good defense. Boston College has a good defense. The question becomes, what level of defensive crappiness is necessary for us to score regularly? If the answer is Middle Tennessee State, well, we should be able to score against Maryland, Virginia, and Coastal Carolina. If the answer is somewhere in between, we'll have a fighting chance against Miami, FSU, and NC State, as well. I should say the USuCk scares me at this point, but hey, Chicken Curse. I remain as confident as I am every year that we will stomp them into the ground. Mercilessly.
I already covered the red zone offense in the post below. As long as our offense struggles to move the ball anywhere on the field, I can't honestly think of why we should be expecting the offense to score once they get inside the magical twenty yard line. Its a fundamental problem with execution and inconsistent playcalling, not some failure to be "mentally tough enough" or some other garbage to score inside some arbitrarily-defined region of the field.
Special Teams
Good outing. I think we came back to earth a little after the last few great weeks, but we still got some solid returns and looked phenomenal in coverage. Can't ask for much more. Zimmerman's bad boot cost us at the end, but TCU's offense was able to move the ball enough at the end to put our backs against the end zone. And while Zimmerman had a great game up to that point, I think everyone in the stadium knew we were playing with house money on that last punt.
Major Coaching Decisions
Would have kicked the field goal. With the current state of our offense, we had a better chance at getting close enough to score two field goals then to suddenly gain the ability to catch a lob in the endzone. I'm not sure what makes Napier/Swinney think we had a chance to score a touchdown all of a sudden. I hope, hope, hope that Napier isn't on the sideline thinking, "Well, we've had so many chances up 'til now...somebody's gotta step up and make a big play sometime. Might as well be on 4th and 13 at the 16 yard line". Unfortunately, I haven't seen much of anything to indicate otherwise. Kick the field goal, take your three timeouts and entrust them to your better units, special teams and defense.
Can't wait to vicariously take out some frustration on Maryland this weekend.
Monday, 7 September 2009
GT will make or break season
So it seems that after the first week its official--the ACC sucks again this year. I still say we are better than the Big Ten and rank third on the pecking order top to bottom but we are still in a down period for sure. This means that the two biggest games of the season are this Thursday and when we take on FSU.
If we can somehow get by Tech, which is not completely outside the realm of possibility, then the season looks not only doable but possibly magical. Yes my orange spectacles are on but just indulge me if you will. Our division looks bad--NC State wasnt special, Maryland got manhandled, Wake is down, and BC still doesnt have a QB. We will see how good FSU is tonight--it would be big if Miami gets the win. So really it comes down to who you play in the other division. GT will be good but I would rather play them than VT, and Virginia looked awful. We dont get to play another pathetic Duke team but we should get a pretty beat up Miami team.
My point is that with teams under-performing there will be parity and middling records. A win against GT puts us in the drivers seat and would create the buzz and momentum needed to build to a big enough let down (a Bowdenesque loss to an inferior team) to call it a true Clemson season. Yeah a loss wont break the season but it will send everyone back down to earth, a place we know all too well...
All I'm saying is that the crummy ACC could be all Dabo and company need this year, hopefully GT's young line isnt up to the task.
If we can somehow get by Tech, which is not completely outside the realm of possibility, then the season looks not only doable but possibly magical. Yes my orange spectacles are on but just indulge me if you will. Our division looks bad--NC State wasnt special, Maryland got manhandled, Wake is down, and BC still doesnt have a QB. We will see how good FSU is tonight--it would be big if Miami gets the win. So really it comes down to who you play in the other division. GT will be good but I would rather play them than VT, and Virginia looked awful. We dont get to play another pathetic Duke team but we should get a pretty beat up Miami team.
My point is that with teams under-performing there will be parity and middling records. A win against GT puts us in the drivers seat and would create the buzz and momentum needed to build to a big enough let down (a Bowdenesque loss to an inferior team) to call it a true Clemson season. Yeah a loss wont break the season but it will send everyone back down to earth, a place we know all too well...
All I'm saying is that the crummy ACC could be all Dabo and company need this year, hopefully GT's young line isnt up to the task.
Thursday, 9 April 2009
PG, SG, and Donte Hill (My Diaper Dandy of the Week)
PG
Demontez Stitt had a successful freshman campaign but a lot was needed from him for Clemson to be a contender in his Soph season. Stitt remained average bc while he was able to penetrate and score in the first half of the season, an ankle injury limited his explosiveness for a period as he regressed in his assist to turnover ration and ft shooting.
Andre Young was a solid contributor off the bench who gained more confidence with each game. His outside shooting improved as the season progressed and had the best assist to turnover ratio of any Tiger. OP has not recruited any PG's in the 2010 class so I hold Young as the future-Stitt will still get the majority of the minutes going into 2010 but Young will continue to take more and more time away, eventually replacing him in the starting line-up. What Clemson will need is less of a playmaker and more of a distributor at PG as the season winds down. While being considerably undersized-look for Young to show the most progress of any freshmen from this season.
SG
Terrence Oglesby is on my bad list right now. What a frustrating player...I know he will work hard in the offseason and will improve, just like he did from his fresh to soph years but I would have no problem if OP yanked him from the starting line-up next year. He is a legit three point threat from anywhere on the court but fails to play within the flow of the system too often. Something that would help the entire team including TO would be to learn how to throw a variety of entry passes to the post. I dont know exactly where TO fits in next year, he isnt that great a defender and his moves driving to the basket need a lot of work, they were laughable at times this year and his meltdown versus Michigan was inexcusable. I guess you take the good with the bad and live with it but OP has found his new defensive replacement with incoming freshman Donte Hill. This kid covers like a blanket and while not flashing anything extraordinary on offense, he will add a new level of intensity to the press. I am really high on this kid and have a feeling that he will be a bigger contributer than we think come fall. The kid is solid, he is already physically built and rebounds like a small forward, which may be where he ends up. He is 6' 5 but may be closer to 6' 4 but really gets after it. He doesnt play above the rim but is athletic, takes good shots, and is fundamentally sound.
At the Charm City Challenge he played a great game. Something like 9 ACC recruits played with James Padgett(Maryland) and Richard Howell (NC St) being the supposed headliners but Donte had the best stat line earning All-Tourney honors. Padgett won the MVP with his 22 pts and 3 rebounds while Donte had 18 pts and 10 rebounds on 8 for 1o shooting, two for three behind the arc. You can see what I mean in this video of the game where he makes some nice drives and defensive plays. Obviously its an all-star crap game but he looks legit and looks like he can come in and play some real minutes in his first season at Clemson. Like I said--lots to look forward to!!
Demontez Stitt had a successful freshman campaign but a lot was needed from him for Clemson to be a contender in his Soph season. Stitt remained average bc while he was able to penetrate and score in the first half of the season, an ankle injury limited his explosiveness for a period as he regressed in his assist to turnover ration and ft shooting.
Andre Young was a solid contributor off the bench who gained more confidence with each game. His outside shooting improved as the season progressed and had the best assist to turnover ratio of any Tiger. OP has not recruited any PG's in the 2010 class so I hold Young as the future-Stitt will still get the majority of the minutes going into 2010 but Young will continue to take more and more time away, eventually replacing him in the starting line-up. What Clemson will need is less of a playmaker and more of a distributor at PG as the season winds down. While being considerably undersized-look for Young to show the most progress of any freshmen from this season.
SG
Terrence Oglesby is on my bad list right now. What a frustrating player...I know he will work hard in the offseason and will improve, just like he did from his fresh to soph years but I would have no problem if OP yanked him from the starting line-up next year. He is a legit three point threat from anywhere on the court but fails to play within the flow of the system too often. Something that would help the entire team including TO would be to learn how to throw a variety of entry passes to the post. I dont know exactly where TO fits in next year, he isnt that great a defender and his moves driving to the basket need a lot of work, they were laughable at times this year and his meltdown versus Michigan was inexcusable. I guess you take the good with the bad and live with it but OP has found his new defensive replacement with incoming freshman Donte Hill. This kid covers like a blanket and while not flashing anything extraordinary on offense, he will add a new level of intensity to the press. I am really high on this kid and have a feeling that he will be a bigger contributer than we think come fall. The kid is solid, he is already physically built and rebounds like a small forward, which may be where he ends up. He is 6' 5 but may be closer to 6' 4 but really gets after it. He doesnt play above the rim but is athletic, takes good shots, and is fundamentally sound.
At the Charm City Challenge he played a great game. Something like 9 ACC recruits played with James Padgett(Maryland) and Richard Howell (NC St) being the supposed headliners but Donte had the best stat line earning All-Tourney honors. Padgett won the MVP with his 22 pts and 3 rebounds while Donte had 18 pts and 10 rebounds on 8 for 1o shooting, two for three behind the arc. You can see what I mean in this video of the game where he makes some nice drives and defensive plays. Obviously its an all-star crap game but he looks legit and looks like he can come in and play some real minutes in his first season at Clemson. Like I said--lots to look forward to!!
Friday, 6 March 2009
CLEMBENTIGERMAX POWER RANKINGS: TEAMS
First a word of preface--yes its a little late in the season but we've been meaning to do this for awhile. These arent the actual standings but how good the teams are doing currently and RPI rankings, SOS, my opinion, etc.
TEAM RANKINGS
- North Carolina-Although not the unbeatable juggernaut they were at the beginning of the season-the core of Ellington, Hans, and Lawson is formidable-especially with Lawson more motivated to pick up his game as the end of the season looms.
- Duke-No I dont want Duke to be this high but I cant justify putting FSU or Wake ahead of them. Somehow Coach K has been able to right the ship. Clemson exposed their lack of athleticism but that Coach K can still coach and, unfortunately, still star in credit card commercials. I still think there are too many white players, especially ones named Paulus, to have a chance at a deep NCAA run. Second round defeat sounds about right.
- Florida State-After their solid defeat of Clemson I want to put them as number two but just cant do it after loosing to Duke. They are slightly ahead of an uneven Wake team and despite the loss are clicking down the stretch at the right time.
- Wake Forest-Perhaps the most lottery talent on one team in the country. At times they are absolutely dominant but at other times cant figure out how to share the ball and play without passion. Too much selfish play. Granted they beat on FSU the first and only time they will play but losses to GT, NC State and a poor showing at Virginia and Maryland give me cause for concern.
- Clemson-My Tigers just cant seem to get the ball in to T-Book. This team has been overachieving all year and has had a rocky week but its been a great ride. Still capable of beating any team in the league and perhaps the country when they are on. OP can flat out coach and hopefully makes the right adjustments down the stretch.
- Boston College-Rice is the heart and soul of this team but they can lack consistency as evidenced by their loss to NC State. Must win against BC to secure NCAA bid and must find some scoring help to ease the burden on Rice. Its funny how a lot of these teams primary colors are the same...
- Virginia Tech-This season has been a disappointing one for me and I'm sure for Hokies fans. After being shut out of the NCAA's last year and coach Greenberg wailing and moaning about it I think its safe to assume we will be hearing more of it. Bad ref work cost them at Duke and maybe even NC but they have to beat FSU and win some games in ACC tourney or its NIT city. Still this is a more talented team than their record indicates.
- Maryland-Gary Williams should be commended for the job he has done with this team. Watching them almost beat a superior Wake squad is why I love college bball over the nba anyday. David 'churchballer' Neal and the Grevis man a team that is as much about heart as it is about skill.
- Miami-Welcome to Miami, home of the most disappointing team in the ACC. Projected by some to finish third, with the loss to GT I think we can say that barring a massive run deep into the ACC tourney they have punched their NIT ticket. McClinton is still amazing and can still take over a game but this team just cant find any semblance of consistency.
- NC State-Someone needs to give Coach Lowe a clue. He is the most awful coach in the ACC and his teams reflect it. State has picked it up here at the end of the year, beating BC and will give Miami a hard rub but its hard seeing how this team is going to rise out of mediocrity with Lowe at the helm.
- Georgia Tech-I'm not sure I've ever seen a team do so little with so much talent. Paul Hewitt has been giving the aforementioned Coach Lowe a run for his money as the worst coach in the ACC this year. This team has the talent and potential but cant put it together and if it were not for the stellar recruiting class coming to GT, I would think that Hewitt's days would be numbered, regardless he is on a short leash heading into next year.
- Virginia-The fact that Virginia is on the bottom of this list speaks to the relative strength of the ACC, top to bottom-perhaps the best conference in the country. This team is all about Landesberg, Chad Ford even has him going in the first round if he declares, but not much is surrounding him. If he goes the team is done for next year and I dont see Coach Leitao weathering the storm for much longer. There is some young talent here but it still needs a lot of developing.
Wednesday, 18 February 2009
MARYLAND RECAP
Clemson 93, Maryland 64
(Chart from Statsheet. I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
One down, three to go on the list of winnable games to get to ten wins and the first round ACC tourney bye. The game was effectively over at the under 8:00 media timeout in the second half. It actually took Clemson a little while longer to pull away than I thought, but when they started pulling away they really buried the Terps.
I'm pressed for time, so a quick list of semi-formed thoughts:
(Chart from Statsheet. I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
One down, three to go on the list of winnable games to get to ten wins and the first round ACC tourney bye. The game was effectively over at the under 8:00 media timeout in the second half. It actually took Clemson a little while longer to pull away than I thought, but when they started pulling away they really buried the Terps.
I'm pressed for time, so a quick list of semi-formed thoughts:
- Things learned first-hand from last night: Maryland sucks at defending the three, Maryland was looking for the open three, Maryland sucks at shooting the open three.
- I almost feel sorry for Gary Williams, I thought he had an excellent game plan in place: run the floor all night and look for the open shot, wherever it was on the court (not to mention quite a few nice set plays resulting in easy buckets). Too bad his team can't shoot. Give a better shooting team (maybe a Boston College) the same plan and we probably have a game. I'll be watching to see if other teams are looking for open threes after breaking the press, Clemson is too good at getting back and blocking/defending when the other team goes for the layup. I think smarter team may start using space in transition for open shots.
- But I don't feel too sorry for Gary Williams, bringing in quality recruits also falls under his job description. What has happened up there? With his success you would think this would be last of his difficulties. I know about the quarrels with the athletic department, but can that be affecting recruiting? Is Gary Williams too unbearable to play for these days? (I'm just grasping at straws here...)
- Grievis had 5 turnovers, Stitt had 2.
- Stitt played a quietly effective game. I haven't heard much about this, but I've been impressed with his anticipation this year, he's racking up quite a few steals. Hopefully he can stay healthy the rest of the way.
- I'm really starting to like Andre Young, and getting less worried about replacing Rivers' output next year.
- Clemben brought up a good point about the possibility Clemson hitting a wall as they run full-court press 35 minutes a game, every game. Still something to watch, but I don't think you can take the second half last night as anything but a positive sign heading to the last five games of the regular season.
- Lots of talk in the blogosphere about Purnell and the Maryland connections. I have a few thought on this, but I'll save it for a more extended post, maybe for the runup to the postseason. Right now I'm not convinced Maryland is much of a threat to entice Purnell, but you can't underestimate the pull of family ties.
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