ACC Tourney Byes, on the Line Today

Haven't written anything since last Wednesday, but the ACC tournament picture is a lot clearer now. If FSU loses today (regardless of what VT does) we can punch our ACC first round bye without hitting the floor on Sunday. Unfortunately, I fully expect FSU to grab a road win at Miami. I think UNC's dramatic single-season fall (as an aside, why didn't anyone see this coming? Everyone just expected the freshmen to fill in and play like the UNC freshmen we're accustomed to seeing?) is the only reason why people aren't talking about Miami failing to live up to expectations once again.

The argument for an FSU win is that it will motivate Clemson to get out on the floor and beat Wake Forest, which will help our NCAA seeding (really quickly: 8/9 right now, 7/8 with a win). I can see the rationale for this; there's certainly a non-zero chance that Clemson suffers a letdown and gets handed a beatdown on Senior Night in Winston-Salem in the event of an FSU loss (Wake's not a bad team, after all...) On the other hand, to paraphrase wise man, "De-fault" are the two sweetest words in the English language. I won't be losing any sleep tonight worrying about a letdown if FSU falters in Miami.

On that note, for one day only, let's go 'Canes!

Miami Recap

Clemson 74, Miami 66

I thought the intensity was there, which was probably my biggest concern given the weather conditions dampening attendance, the win over FSU, the two-and-a-half day turnaround, desperation from Miami, and did I mention there was snow on the ground? I guess we have to give credit to the coaching staff, 'cause we need something to blame when the team comes out and inexplicably plays flat. To the chart:

NCAA Basketball

The game was close throughout, even though I felt strangely confident that Clemson was going to win. Despite some (jarring) lapses, they just seemed to have the advantage on both sides of the court, particularly having a better defense. I don't need to tell you that the best team doesn't always win a college basketball game, but for some reason I wasn't worried even when Miami fought back to tie the game at 40/43 or when they trimmed the lead to 67-63 with 47 seconds remaining.

I don't usually show the following kind of chart, because it's usually not that informative when viewed in the context of a single game, but it really tells the story of yesterday's game:

NCAA Basketball

(I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)

This plots the "four factors", which have been established as the statistics that contribute most strongly to determining victory. Clemson has the slight edge in offensive rebounding and turnovers, while Miami has a small edge in FG% (remember, this is effective FG%, which gives extra weight to making a three point shot relative to a two point shot. It also perfectly demonstrates why focusing on simple FG% is misleading, because while Miami has a more decisive 52%-45% advantage for simple FG%, the advantage shrinks to 59%-57% when you account for Clemson's extra two three-point shots on three extra attempts) (as a side note, it turns out both teams shot the ball pretty well yesterday). The real story is in the final column, where Clemson absolutely killed Miami in FT rate. Even though FT rate is the least important of the four factors, when you see one bar favoring a team by that much, its a good bet they've put themselves in a position to win. I went back and checked the same chart from the Virginia Tech game and it's actually really similar. The advantages for the first three bars are narrow and divided between the teams, but VT has an astounding advantage in FT rate.

So I guess in a way Clemson got one back from the refs. The game would have been a lot closer without the 31-17 advantage in FT attempts, not to mention Clemson unexpectedly sinking 25 of their attempts. At the same time, this is latest in a series of decent to above-average performances from the line for Clemson. A lot of this is driven by T. Booker finding his shot, picking up some of the slack he let was responsible for by missing so many shots from the stripe at the beginning of the season. In addition, I like seeing this result because it makes sense: Clemson had an advantage underneath, so they attacked inside and ended up picking up a lot of fouls and subsequent points from the line.

This won't happen in every game because the inside advantage won't be there. But it's good to see Clemson conscientiously playing to the weaknesses of their opponents. One more win next Saturday against Virginia and Clemson will be back playing in a position of strength at least for one game, trying to steal an upset on the road at Maryland.

**One quick note: it was good to see Tanner Smith playing after what looked like a potentially serious injury in the first half. We don't hide our contempt for Tanner Smith much on this blog, but at the same time we probably don't give him enough credit for his improvement in defense. I think at this point the gap in performance on defense between him and a freshmen like Johnson or Hill is large enough to more than negate any difference in offensive performance. Moreover, Smith at the very least provides some decent-quality depth, something the team is not exactly brimming with right now. None of this may be true by next season, but for now Clemson couldn't really afford an injury to Tanner Smith.

Miami Preview

Miami vs. Clemson, 2/13, 12:00pm, Littlejohn

Stop me if you've heard this before, but Miami is struggling to live up to expectations. They got off to a good start with victories over Minnesota and Wake Forest en route to a 15-1 record, but ACC play has exposed their mostly soft early schedule. Outside of the those two teams, the next highest rated team they played according to Kenpom was USuCk, with the #189-ranked Florida Atlantic as the next strongest team.

I think Miami expected more from their offense this season, which has ended up really in the middle of the ACC pack. They still shoot the ball reasonably well, equally dangerous from inside and outside. They have three legitimate three-point threats in James Dews, Adrian Thomas, and Malcolm Grant. They are also good on the offensive glass; good shooting + good offensive rebounding is normally a pretty potent combination for an offense. However, they have struggled mightily in two areas offense this season: FT shooting and turnovers. The gameplan on defense practically writes itself for the Tigers, pressure defense early and often and put Dwayne Collins (Miami's primary inside force this season) on the line whenever he gets the ball inside for a shot. Collins has shot by far the most FTs for Miami but sports a miserable 53.1% mark.

On top of their offensive struggles, Miami's defense has arguably taken a step down from last season. While they have been decent at limiting opposing team's FG percentage, they haven't been able to come up with much in the way of turnovers and have also sent opposing teams to the line at a pretty high rate relative to other ACC teams. They have been better at stopping the three than the two, which I expect will lead to a greater emphasis on the inside game for the Booker brothers on Saturday. Miami does have an inside presence and manages to block quite a few shots, but at the same time they struggle at bit controlling the offensive glass. This will hopefully lead to some easy putbacks for the Tigers, even if they are (as usual) having trouble shooting from point-blank range. And hey, we might see yet another "breakout game" from Jerai Grant.

All in all, this is a pretty good matchup for Clemson and we should really expect a margin of victory of around 7-12 points. But I have a bad feeling about this game. Its a short turnaround for a noon game on a Saturday. I don't expect to see a lot of energy from Clemson tomorrow in Littlejohn, with or without a decent student turnout. Purnell played his regulars hard on Wednesday night, likely a tacit admission of how much was at stake against FSU and how we should be able to win against Miami even if we're a little winded. Let's hope Trevor Booker is back to 100%, Demontez Stitt starts to approach 100%, and the coaching staff is willing to stick with Devin Booker, who should have about the freshest legs on the court. 'Cause I suspect we're going to have to press Miami all game long to keep them from mounting a comeback. GO TIGERS!!

Miami Recap

First of all, in terms of pure entertainment value, this was the kind of game that hooks people on college football (and football in general) for their entire lives. And because we won, I still have a big stupid smile on my face that probably won't disappear for at least a couple of days. That smile really comes mostly from the effort and investment the players and coaches put into the game (with the rest coming from the many gifts the Miami team imparted to us).

That being said, there's a lot to not like about the game. Way too many miscues and too many rookie coaching calls. Luckily for us, there were just as many, if not more, coming from the other side of the ball and the other sideline.

Defense
I'll start with defense, 'cause I know there's going to be a lot of questions about our performance. For me, the biggest difference between this game and most of the others this season was the tackling, particularly in the second level. Miami's rushers were making people miss, shedding tacklers, and then dragging the pile for yards at a time. Some credit, perhaps more than will ultimately be allotted, has to go to Miami. The three backs they featured are outstanding talents, and they are certainly going to make defenders from all over the country miss and they have the lower body strength to keep going long after the first hit. The problem comes with "shedding" part. Clemson looked like the defense of years past in not being able to wrap up. But even some of this can be attributed to the Miami backs, so I'm not going to get too concerned--yet. We'll see how they look in the coming weeks.

The commentators were saying the the D-line was being stifled most of the night, but I didn't see it that way. I thought they did a pretty good job pressuring Harris when they needed to, particularly when everyone in the stands knew it was a passing down. The difference between this and last week was that by establishing the run early, Miami was able to keep the D-line back a little, particularly in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. We also didn't see Harris on any designed rollouts, and I have to think this was due to the speed of our ends. It doesn't show up in the playcalling or in the stats, but it might be another way the D-line affected the game: taking away a couple of pages from the playbook. All in all, I was pretty happy. And how about that push by Bowers on the 2nd and goal in overtime? I thought Miami had the corner of the endzone when the play began.

The coverage went about as well as I thought it would. Clemson was burned once with the long ball, that's gonna happen once in a while in college with a QB like Harris. Other than that, though, they kept pretty much everything in front of them. The LBs could have been a little more aware on some of the crossing routes--I'm specifically thinking of the TD pass on 2nd and goal from the 5 that put Miami up 17-14. But I was much more upset with the run defense in the second level: bad angles and bad tackling form.

Some troubling aspects, to be sure, but I'm willing to pass part of this off as resulting from the excellent Miami talent and a novel and effective coaching scheme that Clemson probably won't have to worry about the rest of the way.

Offense
First of all, let's get this out of the way now: no, Kyle Parker did not "grow up right before our very eyes" Saturday afternoon. That's got to be the broadcaster cliche I despise the most when it comes to describing QB performance. I do think Kyle Parker showed improvement in one area Saturday relative to earlier in the season: I think he's gotten better at managing the two-minute drill (up until the last 20 seconds of the game, I suppose). (Also, it helps to have your timeouts that weren't wasted by the coaching staff earlier in the half). Also, a couple of times he did a really good job selling the playaction, something I hadn't noticed earlier in the season. If anything, though, this performance was something of a step back. He made poor decisions throwing the ball. He struggled with pressure in the pocket. He missed the lanes on the QB draws (I thought he left more than a few yard on the field). His downfield passes were rarely accurate; its miraculous no Miami defender caught up with the duck thrown to Spiller, and the Ellington pass...ugh. Finally, he's still telegraphing his throws. Its gotten to the point where it looks like he's being coached to look one way first and even fake a throw before looking at his primary receiver. If that's true, kudos to you Billy Napier, its better than nothing. Its getting to the point where I'm really interested in seeing what Boyd can show the coaches in the spring.

Credit due where credit is due, however: Parker did throw good medium-range passes over the middle of the field including the game-winner to Ford. This is how he likes to reminds us that he's a better option than Korn. He really does have a live arm when he gets the chance to plant and throw.

I thought the O-line play was at least adequate, and perhaps the nicest surprise of the day. Still too many -2 to +2 running plays, but by and large they gave Parker time to throw, looked halfway decent getting downfield for some blocks on screens, and even opened a hole or two for the backs.

From a overall perspective, its clear that Clemson is still practicing offense by big play. But I give credit to Napier, he managed to call enough good plays to string together quite a few first downs and keep drives alive long enough to give us a chance to break the big play. And yeah, he kept going back to the RB and TE screens but hey, if Miami refuses to adjust why not go back to the well? Its actually refreshing to have an offensive coordinator who sticks with something that is working. Yeah, that's yet another not-so-subtle dig at Spence.

• Michael Palmer. What can you say? Even if his season is done today (I really hope not), I give him the Offensive MVP, non-CJ Spiller category.
• Jaime Harper finally showed some of that highly-touted strength today. Those were some key carries late in the game with Spiller about to collapse on the sidelines.

Special Teams
Worst game of the season, and we still got a kickoff return for a touchdown. That's what it's like rooting for a team with CJ Spiller. This is running long so I'll go to the bullet points:

• The poor tackling showed up in kick coverage.
• I can't understand what happened to Spiller on the Miami kickoff from their own fifteen. Looked like everyone just kind of hesitated there--no way we shouldn't bring it back to at least the 35, but it was a high kick.
• Credit Bosher, who turned out to be way more of a kicker than I gave credit for in preview.
• Also, Zimmerman takes a lot of heat from this blog, but I give him a lot of credit for hanging in on that terrible snap and getting off a great punt.
• The return team has to open its ears and eyes. Third week in a row we nearly touch a punt on the return and give the ball back. I think opposing coaches are telling the teams to punt the ball high and short and let Clemson do the rest

Major coaching decisions
Both sides of the ball had some problems. For Miami, it was more a problem with blowing timeouts at rather inane moments in the game, costing them from a strategic standpoint late in the game. Also, the poor clock management at the end of the first half, which Clemson managed to duplicate in the last twenty seconds of the game. But the worst call of the game was the pass on third & goal from the five. The last thing you want is Kyle Parker locking on a receiver in a fifteen yard short field. You want to put Parker in motion on a rollout, try a swing pass, or even a fade route to Jones and see how high he can really jump? That's fine. But don't let Parker stand there and rifle it into a crowd. On top of everything, this play was called during a timeout. I don't get it.

Two calls I loved, though: 1) fourth and one to Jaime Harper. That's the Harper from the high school highlight clips. 2) the inside hand-off to Harper on what ended up being the last play before the kick that sent the game to overtime. Big eight yards for Jackson, who put a late, knuckling slice on that last kick but because of the run there was more than enough margin for error. Now, the lost 12 seconds after the run were disappointing but hey, can't fault the initial idea.

I'm gonna wrap this up 'cause its gone on way too long, but I'm still pretty excited about the game. I can't imagine what it must have been like in the heat and humidity to play such a long game with so much emotional and physical investment for the players--I know just watching the game left me physically and emotionally drained. Against the odds and for the first time in a long time, though, the players saw their investment pay off. Now they just need to sustain the same level of investment and they could end up with the division title. Luckily, our second bye week is up. I mean the Coastal Carolina game. Should give us some time to rest.

Miami Preview

Clemson vs. Miami, Oct. 25, 3:30pm, Land Shark Stadium (formerly Dolphin Stadium)

First of all, "Land Shark Stadium"? Second, weren't they supposed to get a new stadium or something?

Tigermax:

This is a game where Clemson has some good matchups, and if they execute well and get a couple of bounces, lucky calls, etc., I have no doubt they could pull off the upset.

For the defense, DrB went over Miami's take on the West Coast offense a couple of days ago at their new site, as always, an excellent read. Traditionally, the best way to slow down a West-Coast style offense is two disrupt the timing between the QB and the receivers. Two ways to do this: 1) jam the receivers hard right at the line and 2) pressure, pressure, pressure the QB. #1 is a bit dicey, because refs tend to throw the flag on offensive holding more often these days and if the receiver comes off more or less clean a good QB can hit him for a big gain. It'll be interesting to see how Steele calls this game, we'll definitely be playing man-to-man so we could see Clemson DBs playing more right up on the line. We've got talent (particularly first-string) in the position; these guys aren't likely to get burned too badly over the course of the game. This could have the added benefit of slowing down the deep routes; the Miami WRs have a height advantage that I want to see Steele try and blunt. On the other hand, he could drop the CBs few yards back and bring the blitzes. Should be fun to watch the back and forth between Whipple and Steele.

Realistically, though, Clemson's best chance to slow down Jacory Harris & crew is probably through generating pressure. I think Clemson's odds of winning will live and die by the amount of consistent pressure we apply to Harris. If Miami is picking up blitzes and we can't generate anything with our front four, we're going to give up more points than we can get back on offense. I'm confident the speed and improved tackling in our LB corps and secondary will help blunt the big play and keep Miami from scoring at will, but they will get 20-28 points without us getting in the Harris' face. Expect to see more roll-outs from Harris than we did last week from Skinner as he tries to escape whatever pressure we generate, but with Clemson's speed on the ends I'm not sure this necessarily helps Miami all that much. Something to keep an eye on.

On offense, yeah...Miami's line play has improved since giving up a bushel of points to FSU. Virginia Tech beat Miami in part by having Tyrod Taylor going deep. Both of these above two points do not bode well for Clemson. Parker has struggled to throw any ball, let alone the deep ball with consistency. I expect we'll throw underneath a lot, but Miami has the speed at LB to partially neutralize the advantage we have over most of the other ACC teams. We're going to need holes up front to get a running game going, or else we could be sitting around relying on the big play from Ford/Spiller again.

Or, we can hope for help from Special Teams. By now, we don't even need to execute much--teams are just kicking it away from our returners. Looks like Matt Bosher's been struggling a bit with the punting duties this year. Here's hoping we pick up some cheap field goals from a short field or two.

This is the kind of game where one of two outcomes will be apparent in the first ten minutes. If we're getting pressure on Harris, its going to be close. If we're not, we'll probably lose by 10-14 points.

Clemben:

Well the Wake game changed the season but with BC beating NC State and NC not looking great against FSU we cant bank on BC losing another game to either Virginia, Mary, or NC. So this Miami game is the pivotal match-up that can bring us not only respect but also the drivers seat for the ACC champs. I am salivating at the chance to beat GT--I think in round 2 against GT we spank them on a neutral field.

First we need to look at 1st Year OC Whipple who has really done wonders with Jacory Harris. Coming into the season I thought they were crazy running off all their competent QBs and putting all their eggs in the proverbial Jacory basket. But he has kept healthy and really blossomed in their system. I am worried most about our LB's getting burned by their plethora of tall speedy wideouts. I think the LB play has been improving and I will be interested if Steele busts out some Dime against Harris.

Let me take this opportunity to just say that the single best hire of the offseason, in my humble opinion, was Dan Brooks. Hats off to the man for teaching some technique and leverage to our talent. He has improved our talent across the board. We are now a solid two or three deep along the line whereas at the beginning of the season we needed DT as an urgent recruiting need. I have loved watching Branch, Moore, Cumbie, Chavis, and others come alive.

Back on subject, I am worried about our LBs covering the slot and RB screens, the dink and dunk stuff they run effectively. Maye still needs to take better angles and not get burned.

Offense--this is a tall order for KP. I have been thinking about the Maryland game and thinking that KP just got rattled playing on the road. He was thrown off of the gameplan and couldnt find himself. I really like the tight end screen, the fullback dive, and the QB draw we saw that kept the defense honest and helped KP settle. Spiller is so fast that the Miami team D still cant catch up--haha, take that Miami.

Enough Bubbles--we win 24-21. Their special teams will blow it and we will eek out a crucial win on the road to the Orange bowl. Spectacles anyone?

FEI Weeks 6 and 7

In all the bye week laziness I missed the FEI update. Clemson dropped from #22 all the way down to #30 after the bye, somewhat inexplicably. After walloping Wake last week, they're up to #21. The computers still believe in us! The bad news: Miami is ranked #5. I think it's important to remember that "advanced statistics" like this will rank teams according to strength, but don't necessarily capture how well a team might match up with another. I'll elaborate more in the preview, but I think this is a case where the matchup works in Clemson's favor, which should at least keep us from getting blown out on Saturday.

Ken Massey has us at #40 after the Wake game, up a few notches from #44 two weeks ago.

Reassessing Clemson's remaining ACC schedule

Last week, I went through Clemson's remaining schedule and based on their level of play at the time, I concluded Clemson was looking at a 6-6 or 5-7 overall finish. But, to essentially give myself some wiggle room to back out of that prediction, I ended the post with this:

Now, if somehow the coaching staff manages to straighten out some of the play-calling hijinks and we come out and with a strong performance driven by an improved offense to beat Wake, then the [schedule prediction] will need readjustment.

While I'm not naive enough to think we've fixed all the problems on offense, I'm happy to admit I was overly pessimistic in the last assessment. By my reckoning, we have now played 11 competitive quarters against average to below average defenses, and we've played competent offense in 6 of those (2 for GT, 1 for Maryland, and 3 for Wake). I'm sure that's not the level of consistency Napier and Swinney are looking for and while the 3 ridiculous quarters in Maryland are still a giant red flag, it means we should be able to put something resembling a productive offense on the field at least half of the time against middling defenses. The good news: none of our final four ACC opponents are particularly known for solid defenses, and some have been downright bad. The possible exception here is Virginia, but they've carved out some goodwill for Al Groh by beating the following teams: North Carolina (has struggled on offense this year), Indiana, and Maryland. I'm not buying it until I see them hold down Miami or Georgia Tech in the coming weeks.

Here's how I see it now:

Clemson finishes with between 2-4 wins, giving a 4-4 finish on the pessimistic side with a 6-2 finish on the optimistic side. The most likely scenario, however, is a 5-3 finish. Does this give us the division title? Probably not. Boston College has a very soft schedule (at Maryland, at Virginia, and home for North Carolina); I'd give them about 3:2 odds right now of winning out. Anyone else tired of BC and their illegitimate division titles?

Good Vibrations: For All Those Who Still Want To Believe

I havent been able to shake the utter disappointment from the Maryland game but I have found quiet hope and seen a glimmer of redemption in the simple fact that the Atlantic division is just awful this year. VT, GT, and Miami are superior teams right now--well lets hope GT is, and Virginia and Duke will beat someone in the Atlantic. So the point is that the winner of the Atlantic will assuredly have 2 losses but will more likely have three or four. So its going to be crowded and its going to come down to head to head records. Lets project two games into the future, shall we...

BC is the current front-runner--wait, the same BC we held to 50 yrds of offense and beat?? This is good for us bc BC plays/loses to VT this week and then plays NC State the next which is a toss-up. They will have at least two losses then, one of them to us!! We probably want State to win, bc the BC schedule then becomes the easiest of the remaining teams. NC the only remaining really tough game. So BC may have a 5-3 record in the conference 4-4 not out of the question.

Next threat is NC State--Tom O'Brien what is going on? They are 0-1 but a better team than they showed against Wake, probably the most dangerous team in terms of talent and coaching but lucky for us they have a tough schedule remaining--the play Duke this week and then BC the next but also have VT and NC. It would really help us if NC steps it up and can beat the majority of the Atlantic teams they play. I can easily see them being 5-3 or 4-4. Clemson needs to hold the tie breaker though.

Wake is very unpredictable. It seems to depend on the mood of Riley Skinner so I'm having a tough time placing them. They are 1-1 in conference and will play Maryland before playing us. If they beat Maryland we have to beat them but they do play Miami and GT which seem like two losses and an FSU team playing for Bowdens life so I think the losses will be there 5-3, 4-4.

Maryland is scary to me. They suck and we shouldnt have lost to them, but they have the weakest schedule in the division playing Duke and Virginia and then VT. Most teams are going to go 1-2 OOC but Maryland could go 2-1. We dont have the tie breaker so it feels more comfortable if they go 4-4, 5-3 spells doom. They play Wake and then Virginia so they could be 2-1 or 3-0 after next week.

Who would have thought we would be talking about FSU as the gutter dwellers of the pathetic Atlantic division. Things look even worse playing GT and at NC in the next two weeks. I dont think the 0-2 Noles are that bad a team but that loss to BC is mindbottling (thank you Will Ferrell), and I cant see them recovering to finish on top.

So there you have it. It looks like everyone is headed for 4-4 seasons. If Clemson can beat Wake, State, and FSU it can stand to lose to Miami and still come out on top. Unless Maryland gets crazy...

There is still hope Tiger fans and at least the defense is good. Can anyone imagine the absolute catastrophe this season would have been without CJ?? I mean its ugly enough already...

Quick MTSU thoughts, a look ahead

While I feel its my job to inject some pessimism into the blog, I'll save it for the GT preview. But I do want to post a couple of quick thoughts:

• After the MTSU game, I felt like a high schooler suddenly reassured that the varsity team can beat the J.V. team. I guess its all the Stockstill & Co. talk getting to me.
• As such, the end results don't mean much but there were some positives to take away from the game. On balance, I liked the play-calling on offense (yay power formations!) and I liked what I saw from Parker, raw but displayed some pocket awareness and also should move around enough to keep opposing defenses honest.
• While its not predictive of future performance (because we were playing MTSU), was that the best single-game special teams performance in, I don't know, the last five years?
• Despite looking horrible Saturday, I'm thinking it ain't a bad thing having a player like Willy Korn around as the backup QB.
• The real season starts this week. I agree with Clemben's post below, but I would extend the "make or break us" sentiment to the next two weeks. We have one game that tilts against us and another that tilts towards us (I'm not nearly as down on BC as some others are, it seems). Lose both and its a long climb back into division contention.
• Miami did us a real favor last night. I don't expect them to lose any "how did that happen?" kind of game this year, so every close loss for FSU is a big plus for Clemson. Its still way too early, but with NC State's (and to a lesser extent, Wake's) disappointing start, it looks like Clemson could really contend. We'll see come Thursday.

GO TIGERS!!!

GT will make or break season

So it seems that after the first week its official--the ACC sucks again this year. I still say we are better than the Big Ten and rank third on the pecking order top to bottom but we are still in a down period for sure. This means that the two biggest games of the season are this Thursday and when we take on FSU.

If we can somehow get by Tech, which is not completely outside the realm of possibility, then the season looks not only doable but possibly magical. Yes my orange spectacles are on but just indulge me if you will. Our division looks bad--NC State wasnt special, Maryland got manhandled, Wake is down, and BC still doesnt have a QB. We will see how good FSU is tonight--it would be big if Miami gets the win. So really it comes down to who you play in the other division. GT will be good but I would rather play them than VT, and Virginia looked awful. We dont get to play another pathetic Duke team but we should get a pretty beat up Miami team.

My point is that with teams under-performing there will be parity and middling records. A win against GT puts us in the drivers seat and would create the buzz and momentum needed to build to a big enough let down (a Bowdenesque loss to an inferior team) to call it a true Clemson season. Yeah a loss wont break the season but it will send everyone back down to earth, a place we know all too well...

All I'm saying is that the crummy ACC could be all Dabo and company need this year, hopefully GT's young line isnt up to the task.

CLEMBENTIGERMAX POWER RANKINGS: TEAMS

First a word of preface--yes its a little late in the season but we've been meaning to do this for awhile. These arent the actual standings but how good the teams are doing currently and RPI rankings, SOS, my opinion, etc.

TEAM RANKINGS

1. North Carolina-Although not the unbeatable juggernaut they were at the beginning of the season-the core of Ellington, Hans, and Lawson is formidable-especially with Lawson more motivated to pick up his game as the end of the season looms.


2. Duke-No I dont want Duke to be this high but I cant justify putting FSU or Wake ahead of them. Somehow Coach K has been able to right the ship. Clemson exposed their lack of athleticism but that Coach K can still coach and, unfortunately, still star in credit card commercials. I still think there are too many white players, especially ones named Paulus, to have a chance at a deep NCAA run. Second round defeat sounds about right.
   


3. Florida State-After their solid defeat of Clemson I want to put them as number two but just cant do it after loosing to Duke. They are slightly ahead of an uneven Wake team and despite the loss are clicking down the stretch at the right time.


4. Wake Forest-Perhaps the most lottery talent on one team in the country. At times they are absolutely dominant but at other times cant figure out how to share the ball and play without passion. Too much selfish play. Granted they beat on FSU the first and only time they will play but losses to GT, NC State and a poor showing at Virginia and Maryland give me cause for concern.


5. Clemson-My Tigers just cant seem to get the ball in to T-Book. This team has been overachieving all year and has had a rocky week but its been a great ride. Still capable of beating any team in the league and perhaps the country when they are on. OP can flat out coach and hopefully makes the right adjustments down the stretch.
   
6. Boston College-Rice is the heart and soul of this team but they can lack consistency as evidenced by their loss to NC State. Must win against BC to secure NCAA bid and must find some scoring help to ease the burden on Rice. Its funny how a lot of these teams primary colors are the same...
   
7. Virginia Tech-This season has been a disappointing one for me and I'm sure for Hokies fans. After being shut out of the NCAA's last year and coach Greenberg wailing and moaning about it I think its safe to assume we will be hearing more of it. Bad ref work cost them at Duke and maybe even NC but they have to beat FSU and win some games in ACC tourney or its NIT city. Still this is a more talented team than their record indicates.
8. Maryland-Gary Williams should be commended for the job he has done with this team. Watching them almost beat a superior Wake squad is why I love college bball over the nba anyday. David 'churchballer' Neal and the Grevis man a team that is as much about heart as it is about skill.
   
9. Miami-Welcome to Miami, home of the most disappointing team in the ACC. Projected by some to finish third, with the loss to GT I think we can say that barring a massive run deep into the ACC tourney they have punched their NIT ticket. McClinton is still amazing and can still take over a game but this team just cant find any semblance of consistency.
10. NC State-Someone needs to give Coach Lowe a clue. He is the most awful coach in the ACC and his teams reflect it. State has picked it up here at the end of the year, beating BC and will give Miami a hard rub but its hard seeing how this team is going to rise out of mediocrity with Lowe at the helm.
11. Georgia Tech-I'm not sure I've ever seen a team do so little with so much talent. Paul Hewitt has been giving the aforementioned Coach Lowe a run for his money as the worst coach in the ACC this year. This team has the talent and potential but cant put it together and if it were not for the stellar recruiting class coming to GT, I would think that Hewitt's days would be numbered, regardless he is on a short leash heading into next year.
12. Virginia-The fact that Virginia is on the bottom of this list speaks to the relative strength of the ACC, top to bottom-perhaps the best conference in the country. This team is all about Landesberg, Chad Ford even has him going in the first round if he declares, but not much is surrounding him. If he goes the team is done for next year and I dont see Coach Leitao weathering the storm for much longer. There is some young talent here but it still needs a lot of developing.