FLORIDA STATE PREVIEW

(littlejohn, 02/07, 7:00pm)


Besides the finale against Wake, FSU scares me more than any other team left on the schedule. Florida State couples an average offense with a great defense--not just great for the ACC, but for all of division I. FSU has the tallest average height in division I this year (!), and are fourth tallest in average effective height. Sound like any other team we've played this year?

Yeah, a comparison to Wake is instructive, I think; I expect a pretty similar game plan. FSU will probably try using their size to pressure the three point shot and obstruct the passing lanes the same way Wake did. Then they use their remaining size underneath to try and slow Booker, while giving Sykes the opportunity to (not) beat them. Now, FSU hasn't been great against the three (certainly not as good as Wake) so hopefully this means they lack the quickness/athleticism of Wake and we can get some open looks.

Clemson I think can try and counter FSU's heighth by using Stitt to drive inside the arc or at least get the perimeter defense to overplay. Clemson had some success with Stitt and Potter driving against Wake, but Wake had enough quickness to keep the ball from moving past the perimeter most of the night. Here's hoping FSU is a little less disciplined on defense.

Luckily for Clemson, things get better on the other end of the court. FSU has a slightly better than division I average offense, but its pretty weak for the ACC. Digging in a little deeper care of Ken Pomeroy, we see that that they are pretty good at getting to the line, where they average ~71%. Also, they don't get their shots blocked very often (which plays against a Clemson strength), and they crash the offensive boards very well (which plays into a Clemson weakness).

So, where's the good news? First, they shoot poorly from behind the arc. But then so does Wake Forest, if you recall. I would focus more on their poor 2P%. While a 5% difference 2-point field goal percentage between Wake and FSU might not seem like much, if we figure around 40 2-point shots in one game, we're looking on average of 4 points less than Wake Forest would score with the same number of shots against a division I-average defense. Since Clemson is well above average defense, the effect is mitigated somewhat; maybe dropping a half or full point off of that difference. Three and half points can obviously be the difference in a game, but its also nothing to hang your hat on. No, the really good news for Clemson is FSU's abysmal turnover percentage. 23.9% of all FSU possessions end in a turnover--just awful. Nearly one in four possessions end in FSU giving the ball back to other team. I guess FSU can blame inexperience, but still, that's quite an accomplishment. I mean, Clemson is running out there at an 18.9% turnover rate which is higher than I would like to see, but wow. And yes, to continue needlessly driving home this point, FSU currently sports the 307th best turnover percentage rate out of 344 teams in division 1. Ouch.

Oh, and Clemson happens to be pretty good at forcing turnovers.

Its a game Clemson should win, but probably not easily. If FSU has some success running their big men at our 3-point shooters, and potential turnovers don't bounce the Tigers' way, it will end up a close, low-scoring affair.