Quick Reminder: Brad Brownell Not Really Much of an X's/O's Guy on Offense

I'm not sure where the rumor started. I just remember reading it in the blogs somewhere, and then suddenly it everyone seemed to accept it as the gospel truth. Seriously, its almost like this idea was planted by the front office and bam! pretty soon everyone is a stenographer.

In an effort to inject some data into the assessment of Brownell's hiring, I took a quick look at the statistical profiles of his past squads (this was back when I had the time for this sort of thing...) No doubt he's led some great defenses, but on offense his team finished in the top 3 in his conference only once--last year (#3!!). Other than that, his offenses have hovered right around average in both the Colonial and Horizon Leagues. Not exactly the dominant mark of a young coaching wizard. In fact, Brownell's overall statistical team profiles eerily resemble the not-so-dearly departed Oliver Purnell, despite using starkly different strategies to construct stingy defenses and middling offenses.

The Michigan game is disheartening, but it reinforces my early views that we are on a rocky road this season with our best hopes likely lying in an 8-8 ACC season. I believe we have latent offensive talent on this team, but without a coaching staff capable of scheming to fit or develop the talent we are in for a long season of crappy offensive displays. Kind of like the last several years, but less frantic. Much, much less frantic. Glacial.

Clemben Addition: This is the perfect game to shut up Tanner Smith enthusiasts. 1-7 and 0-5 from 3 pt. land. 4 fouls and beat to the basket on multiple occasions (not that anyone was rotating on defense so its not all his fault). We really need Noel Johnson to step up and take half of Tanner's minutes or ACC play will get ugly. Lucky for us Wake and GT stink. Miami, Virginia Tech and FSU are underachieving. Roy Williams has Harrison Barnes and can't right the ship (I love that Barnes was picked as a preaseason All-American??, would have been a top draft pick in NBA but is struggling in college). Maryland and NC State I don't know enough about but are beatable and only Virginia seems to have improved much since last year. Yes, Duke is back to being unstoppable but our schedule is favorable.

This loss to Michigan at home on national TV really does sting though. We have to hope that Michigan continues to improve in the Big Ten. We really need to win our next two games to stay in the NCAA hunt if we go 8-8 in ACC play. Losing to South Carolina in the 3 major sports this year is unacceptable Barker. Don't let the door hit you on the way out Terry Don. How about we get an athletic director with a normal name for a change? That would mean Billy D'Andrea would be disqualified. Hooray!

One thing to remember is that expanded brackets (which I absolutely abhor--64 was a great number) might really benefit us this year. Still unless this team improves fundamentally, its going to be a long year. Glacial sounds about right.

ACC Tournament Preview Round 1: NC State vs. Clemson

NC State vs. Clemson, 03/11, ~9:00pm, Greensboro Coliseum

I agree with DrB at the end of this post, a win tonight should lock us into a seven seed. On the other hand, a loss probably drops us into the 8/9 matchup. As a result, the stakes are actually a bit bigger than they might seem because in most years there is a fairly substantial step down in talent between #1 seeds and #2 seeds. I would rate Kansas and Syracuse as shoe-ins for #1 seeds at this point, and the difference between playing one of those teams and playing some of the potential two seeds like Ohio State, West Virginia, or Purdue would be pretty large. Of course, while this is all fun to contemplate, it depends on getting a favorable matchup in round one and taking care of business against the Wolfpack tomorrow.

NC State struggled to a 5-11 finish in the ACC and 17-14 finish overall. On paper, they're a league average to a little below league average in just about every statistical category. Their most conspicuous weaknesses are probably an inability to force turnovers and an inability to keep opposing teams off the offensive glass. As a result, NC State is no push-over. I know alot of people see the near-collapse at Raleigh earlier this season as a direct result of losing Demontez Stitt in the first half. While losing Stitt certainly didn't help, I think it's ultimately a pretty lazy assessment. It glosses over the fact that we got whipped on the offensive boards all game long (not something that would be affected by losing Stitt) by a team that doesn't play particularly well on the offensive glass. In fairness, we also were unable to force any turnovers, which is probably an area where we missed Stitt more.

What I'm trying to say is that while we don't match up poorly with NC State, we don't particularly match up well against them, either. I think we will need a consistent effort from T. Booker and the rest of the inside players and we will have to get some breaks in the pressure defense if we want to run away with the game. Unfortunately, Sidney Lowe had the cognizance to limit the playing time of the turnover-prone Javier Gonzalez to ten minutes against the Clemson press. Outside of Gonzalez, the Wolfpack actually do a pretty good job handling the basketball.

Hopefully Clemson comes out taking the challenge seriously and doesn't play like last year when they moped around as if they deserved a first round bye. I think this is a game Clemson should win on a neutral court at least 3 out of 4 times, but that depends on whether they actually show up ready to play. GO TIGERS!!!

NC State Recap or Thoughts on In-game Collapses

I'm going to do these recaps as often as possible during the ACC season, similar to what I was doing last year...

I don't have a lot of time, so straight to the chart:

College Basketball

(Chart from Statsheet. I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)

All in all, I thought it was a fairly standard outing this season by the Tigers. We're going to hear a lot about how this was a "tale of two halves" or whatever, but the nature of Clemson's game (particularly this year) is such that when the pressure is working, the defense looks great; but when Clemson starts looking tired, the other team makes adjustments, puts in someone who can handle the ball better, or starts getting a few bounces/calls to go their way they are going to put points on the board. UNC could never make the adjustments and we stomped them for two halves. Duke almost never had a problem and they stomped us for two halves. No one's going to accuse Sidney Lowe of being a coaching genius, but limiting turnover machine Javier Gonzalez to 10 minutes of playing time (well below his season average of ~27 minutes) isn't the work of guy who doesn't understand the situation. All of this raises a bit of a red flag: while the pressure defense probably hasn't been better since the days of Hammonds and Mays, the half-court defense (while perhaps a little better than last year), isn't enough to keep even offensively-challenged teams like NC State from scoring.

It's good to keep in mind, however, that the nature of Purnell's (and by extension, Clemson's) brand of basketball is inherently pretty volatile, a number of different factors like referee style of officiating ("calling it close" or "letting them play"), the level of fatigue for Clemson or the opponent, a series of missed calls, etc. can have a dramatic impact on the overall effectiveness of the defense. This can leave the team look like a polished, overwhelming machine at one point in time and totally clueless the next--and I think this is heightened somewhat this year because we lack a really solid half-court defense to fall back on. The prototypical game which I refer people to is the Villanova game in round 1 of the 2008 tournament. We came out and absolutely flustered Villanova's pair of excellent but inexperienced guards (Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher, I believe), building a quick lead in the first ten minutes of the game--and it looked like we could do no wrong. Then the guards remembered that they were pretty good, stopped throwing the ball away, and cut the lead in half by the break. Then in the second half, it looked like Clemson could do nothing right while giving up 48 points en route to a 6-point loss. The key: Reynolds and Fisher shredding through the pressure defense.

Anyways, I've wandered off topic here but I guess I needed to justify my statement above: this did feel like a standard Clemson outing. Ever wonder why Clemson struggles to "close out games" or "finish strong"? The preceding paragraph seems like a reasonable explanation--mull it over for a while. I don't by the lack of leadership argument; a coach couldn't design a better leader than T. Booker. This reasoning also explains how Clemson manages furious finishes from time to time. Remember the Butler game? Remember how tired Butler looked early on in the second half? The same players allegedly lacking a leader managed a thrilling comeback. Remember last year's allegedly dysfunctional squad pulling off an improbable comeback at Virginia Tech? Maryland two years ago? This may be a bit preemptive, but if someone wants to complain about Clemson's failures to "seal the deal", can we at least get some acknowledgement of their ability to unexpectedly storm back to victory? And then maybe we can start seeing the two outcomes as sides of the same coin. Clemson plays a volatile style of basketball, sometimes it works for us, sometimes against us, and sometimes we have just enough in the tank to overcome home-court advantage plus three points.

***Lastly, unrelated to the above, I wanted to comment on Stitt's status. I'm not the biggest Stitt fan, I'm on the record as saying that Young is more than capable of filling most of the roles he plays for the team. But that doesn't change the fact that losing Stitt for any extended period of time is a big blow. No one on the team can replace Stitt's explosive first step and his ability to penetrate and cause problems for the defense. It also seems like he's been cut loose a little over the last three games, and the results have been pretty good. Unfortunately, he's also got a growing injury history. He's got a little bit of Dwayne Wade in him that way--penetration guy with little regard for his body and a litany of nagging injuries hampering his play. Unfortunately, Stitt's injury sounds pretty serious--not a pulled muscle or something. There's also the issue of how healthy he is when he finally comes back. If you watched the team closely last year, Stitt never seemed the same after coming back from a pre-ACC season injury. I'm not going to jump to any conclusions here, but obviously keeping the game close against in Atlanta on Tuesday just became a lot more difficult. I'll try to comment more when we get news of the severity of the injury.

NC State Preview

Clemson vs. NC State, 01/16, 12pm, RBC Center

I’ve returned to earth after last Wednesday’s thrashing of the Tarheels. Great stuff, and worthy of extended celebration. Tigers get a chance to finally win a game after beating a ranked opponent in a game we really should win despite being on the road. NC State has earned the label of “hot and cold” team this year, supported by quality wins over Marquette and Florida State (last Tuesday) and head-scratching losses to a crummy Arizona team, Northwestern, and Virginia; the last two being home games and not particularly close. The Florida State game may seem like the strangest--if you’re a reader here you know that we think FSU has a chance to sweep Clemson in two games this season. So what happened? First, let’s get a general team profile of the Wolfpack.

All in all, I think the 2010 NC State team is fairly similar to the 2008 team, with their youth leaving them a little room to get better as the season goes on. Based primarily on this potential, I debated whether or not to include them in the bottom rung of the conference when sizing up the ACC. As in years past, they are a better offensive than defensive team (if only slightly this year). On offense, they lack any true “strength”, although they’ve managed to shoot the ball at around a league average clip--both the two and three-pointer. On the other hand, they turn the ball over. Not as often as UNC (or as often as us, for that matter), but it’s still bad enough to be a serious concern when you face a pressure defense. Javier Gonzalez looks like the weak link, coughing up the ball 27.5% of the time he handles the ball. While their turnover percentage is 'just' middling, like UNC they are dismal at having the ball stolen away. This implies that while they don’t make stupid mistakes like dribbling the ball off their feet, they are vulnerable to good defensive pressure. On defense, their FG% against is their most redeeming feature, although it is well-below league average, besting only Virginia, UNC, Boston College, and Clemson (coincidentally enough, 2 of the 3 teams we have already beaten). Meanwhile, NC State struggles to force turnovers and also has trouble keeping other teams off the offensive glass. We should be able to put up points in the half-court, even though it may involve fighting for second and third chances.

So how did they manage to beat Florida State on the road? To beat FSU right now, you need a tall three point shooter who can see over the defense and knock down threes, and you need to crash the boards. 6’7” freshmen named Scott Wood walked into Tallahassee averaging only about 7.5 points/game and shooting around 32% from three-point land. He left after putting up 31 points on 7-11 shooting from long range while his teammates did a phenomenal job of keeping FSU off the offensive boards, no mean feat when you are dealing with 7’1” Solomon Alabi, 6’9” Chris Singleton, and 6’11” Xavier Gibson.

All of this could spell some trouble for the Tigers, as they like to get on the offensive glass and we don’t defend the three exceptionally well. However, in basketball, one game shouldn’t be considered predictive of future performance. If Clemson can keep Scott Wood from landing on ESPN with another 30 point plus performance, we should be able to keep NC State’s offense more or less in check.

On the other hand, the Tigers can’t afford to be complacent. NC State’s not a particularly good team, we match up fairly well against them, and while it’s never easy to play on the road in the ACC, recently Raleigh doesn’t exactly have a reputation as a difficult place to play. A loss against the Wolfpack, a game that we’re rightfully favored in, would more than erase the benefits accrued in the UNC game. To put it another way, losing a game you are favored has a much greater affect on your expected win tally than a loss in a “toss-up” game. I expect Clemson to struggle considerably in Atlanta next week, but we should be able to handle the Wolfpack today.

What in Tar Nation? Clemson Spanks UNC

UPDATED BELOW, Tigermax

After Duke everyone was going to meltdown but thats because lots of football fans dont understand how to be basketball fans necessarily. Basketball season isnt about your record so much as peaking at the right time. I mean sure you want to win the conference regular season champs and have a good seed in the tourney but its about getting your team playing at the optimum level late in the season. Its also very much about match-ups, with Duke last year we matched up well against their suspect guard play--this year we dont match up well at all. However, we do match up well against UNC and made them look silly committing around 26 turnovers. TBooker at the point of the press really helps put on the pressure. It also helps him get into his offensive mindset with a couple easy flushes that come from that position.

We looked a lot better in a lot of aspects of the game but I wanted to just highlight a couple right now. FT shooting!!! We were 18-20 from the line. Hallelujah! I'll take 90% from the line any night. Stitt scored 20 points on 8-14 attempts. We need him to play well and drive the offense. He is the only player on the team with a legit first step who can drive and if he can cut down on some of the turnovers then he will be exciting.

I dont like Potter much at all and his shot selection is mind-bottling but he had 5 steals. We need him to be a legit three point shooter. I liked Noel Johnson sticking those two threes early, really set the tone but we went cold thereafter. We missed 11 threes in the second half--dont think we made one. Smith missed some open looks but had a solid game otherwise. The three point shooting has to get better if we are going to challenge in the ACC. And I do mean challenge because Duke just got beat by a manic GTech team. We beat UNC and FSU is up and down as well. Anyone can win this, Duke should be favored but I think we can beat them at home with the Freshman not looking completely shell shocked.

This was a good learning game, wish we could still get the younglings more time in the games, but a victory to relish. Its been six years since we beat these Tar Heels and I think we could have broken the curse had we played in the Dean Dome. I am looking forward to the Duke rematch. Going away to NC State, playing a lot better than I expected, and the always dangerous GTech team are two tough challenges as well. The ACC will be a dog fight but since I hate that metaphor I'll leave you to discuss what that actually means...

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Tigermax adds: Not quite as satisfying as the Duke thrashing last year, but pretty darn close. This was a case of a team with a glaring weakness (UNC's turnover problem) running smack into a team perfectly tailored to take advantage of that weakness (Clemson's pressure defense). As Clemben pointed out above, Duke really had the same problem coming into their game last year.

At the same time, I would caution against viewing this as some watershed moment for Clemson basketball. They played very well against a team they match up well against. Not to underplay the victory, it's good for all sorts of reasons (NCAA tournament resume, ACC standings, ACC tournament seeding, improved FT shooting, etc.) Also, if you put stock in this sort of thing, you can certainly argue that Clemson displayed intangibles last night that haven't been present recently. But it shouldn't really change your opinion about the basic skill level of the team. We still have fundamental flaws that can be exploited by the right team. I'll be withholding any revisions in overall team skill until we play the same way against a tall team that forces turnovers and plays outstanding defense; the general profile of teams that have given us fits in the last couple of years.

NC State Recap

Well, that should teach me to trust my instincts over the actual numbers. In my (admittedly weak) defense, I think the end result betrays the relative competitiveness of the game. If that Spiller non-fumble gets called the other way, the game probably ends up uncomfortably close. On the same note, Russell Wilson is a mighty fine-looking quarterback--if Tom O'Brien can resurrect his defense next year no one's going to look forward to playing these guys. As it was, we simply outscored 'em. Their kicking game didn't help much either. I'm wondering if Clemson doesn't see a net negative punt at some point before the end of the year (6 yards!).

Offense
Kyle Parker took another incremental step in the right direction today. Looked pretty tall in the pocket. Earlier in the year I rapped the coaching staff for not letting him be more mobile, not letting him make plays with his feet if a play looked like it had broken down. Now I think we're seeing what the coaching staff envisioned, in order to maximize Parker's main strength (his live arm) he needs to develop into more of a pure pocket passer who limits his runs to designated keeps. Its been a learning process, at times a painful one, but it might be coming together faster than if the coaches had just let Parker tuck the ball and run every time his first option was covered. Let's see how he handles the stiffer defenses coming in the next two weeks.

DrB hit it on the head a few days ago, one of the reasons for the offensive improvement is instead of throwing out a fresh set of faces every drive to see what sticks, we're now playing the same guys week in and week out. I think things like QB-WR "chemistry" are overrated a bit, but I have little reason to doubt the most talented and reliable guys are seeing the overwhelming majority of both snaps and ball touches. Ford and Dye (and to a lesser extent, Ashe) at WR, Palmer and Allen at TE, and of course the RBs.

Defense
Not sure if Chancellor and Butler still weren't 100%, but it seemed like the 2nd string CBs were seeing a lot of time. As a possible result, coverage wasn't exactly an abject disaster but definitely a large step down from previous weeks. Two counter-points: 1) after a rough first quarter, Wilson was on the rest of the game and 2) Jarvis Williams had a couple of highlight-reel catches (the rest of the recievers could have really helped his final statline if they had held onto the ball a few more times). Since a lot of defense in the secondary is reflexive, an accurate QB and disciplined, talented receiver are going to connect despite the best defensive efforts. Oh, and third point: ridiculous penalties.

Brandon Maye needs to rein himself in a bit, he's starting to make plays that stand out, but not in the good kind of way.

Not much else to say from my vantage point, except that we might want to consider recruiting a new kicker to replace Jackson after next year. 3/6 (?) on PAT attempts is not good for a kicker, small sample size notwithstanding. Seriously, I don't care if you've been sitting on the bench for 10 games, a random soccer player kicking for the local high school football team can manage 3/6.

Waiting for Thomas Austin news...

All in all, a solid game for the offense and an utterly average game from the defense when we've come to expect more. I think the big difference between this and the FSU game was we weren't constantly trying to give the game away for the first 2 and 1/2 quarters. One game, step, whatever you want to call it, away. Virginia brings a stronger defense than we've been playing recently. This should give us an idea of how well our offense has really come along...but our real defense needs to show up and provide support next week.

NC State Preview

Clemson vs. NC State, 11/14, 12:00pm, Carter-Finley Stadium

Tigermax:

I kind of ended up rambled on about this matchup in yesterday's post. It pretty much sums up this way: our excellent defense should blunt their strength in offense and our shaky offense should have no problems scoring against a defense that's well below league-average. On top of that, State has been one of the worst teams in the country at starting field position; if the coaching staff hasn't had nightmares all week about Spiller and Ford in the Clemson return game, well...they just don't care anymore they're already "building for the future". Finally, there's been a lot of worry around the blogosphere about a "let-down" after last week's win. I'm not worried about this at all: we hired the Motivator-in-Chief himself, coach Dabo Swinney (not thinking about Maryland, not thinking about Maryland...).

So why do I feel the same as Admiral Ackbar? Why do I stubbornly rate this game as only a "lean Clemson"? It's a road game, sure, and while Raleigh isn't the friendliest place to play in the ACC it's certainly not Blacksburg or Atlanta or Tallahassee. I can't deny my analysis of any NC State game is, and always will be, colored by those three consecutive inexplicable losses to NC State from 1986-1988. But still, it doesn't add up. NC State is in the throes of a season lost to injury and unreasonable expectation. Will they score on us? Sure. They've still got a talented offense. Is that any excuse for not outscoring them? No way.

Am I basing my fears on a gut feeling? I guess that's the only explanation I can scrape together now--I think Clemson's in for a tight slog on Saturday.

Clemben:

I thought, along with everybody else, that NC State would be legit this year. Russell Wilson is our main concern. If he is having an off day we win going away, but if he gives us his best--mixing in his mobility and hurting us with his legs it will be another close game.

What we forget is that Ponder was limited running the ball last week. When he did he made the Tigers pay but Jimbo wasnt going to do that to his QB, although DeAndre ended it for him anyway. NC State loves to go to the TE down the seam of the defense, especially against Cover 2 sets. I think this could be problematic, coupled with struggling to stop the run and a bigger back.

On offense we need to "keep on, keepin on..."(more pure gold Daboisms--we need to start a collection of these things, to be preserved for future generations). I'd like to take the opportunity to say that the season has turned on the ability of Billy Napier to do his job better. After Maryland, he and Dabo got on the same page and my feeling is Billy took some more ownership with the bye week. We saw more I-formation, more TE involvement, more of a screen game. It helped that KP started executing and WR's started catching the ball...

State's defensive stats have been helped by playing two Div II powderpuffs but I think the game on offense turns on our ability to run the ball. If we have to rely on the passing game and come up with key third down conversions in the air like in the FSU game, its always less of a sure thing. I want to see Spiller rack up some rushing yards to help buoy the all-purpose and the Heisman resume. Look for special teams to help slightly break open a game that feels to close for comfort all the way to the end. Also lets hope we can kick some FG's, let alone extra points...

Clemson 31 State 21

Lets go beat up on some Wolfies!! Go Tigers!!

FEI Week 10; ACC Outlook Update

Clemson rises to #9 from #13 in the latest FEI rankings. A lot of this is inflated by the ACC spotting the 6-9 teams in the rankings. In fairness, though, a lot of the ACC movement results from the teams that were ahead last week dropping like rocks this week--Oregon, Iowa, Oklahoma, Boise State, and Pitt.

Clemson's schedule eases up the last three weeks, playing three sub-forty teams including next week at #55 NC State. A lot of parallels will be drawn in general terms to the on-field results of NC State and FSU this season, both feature bad defenses and good offenses. Looking at it a little closer, though, NC State features the 11th ranked offense in the country, but its still a relatively large step down from the FSU offense. Meanwhile, they've struggled with the #68 defense, but this is instead a relatively large step up from the FSU defense. These two observations might indicate that NC State will give Clemson the same amount of trouble as FSU, but this overlooks field position advantage. Clemson ranks #12 on the legs of Spiller and Ford, while NC State is an abysmal #115 (out of 120). If Clemson pulls away early, it could very well be on the strength of special teams.

Here's how I see the last two ACC games:
Clemson is still projected to finish 5-3 or 6-2; but we increase our odds slightly over BC because we have two games remaining instead of three (easier to go 2-0 than 3-0). If we win this week though, it just about sinks BC who still has what looks like an increasingly tough UNC game left on their schedule.

FEI Week 9; ACC Outlook Update

Whooosh! That was the sound of the ACC dropping like a rock in this weeks FEI rankings. GT is the lone top 10 survivor (#8), but it looks like the combination of VT losing, GT giving up crazy points to a terrible Vandy offense, and Miami barely getting by WF managed to drag the entire conference down. Clemson, despite playing a Division II team and which is not included in the ranking calculations, dropped from #13 to #15, probably stemming from the drop in strength of schedule. FSU is still ranked at #18, probably because FEI gives them the third best offense in the country. Clemson's 6th best defense is going to have to be on its toes. Luckily, FSU is also ranked #98 in defense.

Here's the updated ACC outlook for the Tigers. Virginia improves following their loss at home against Duke. But I saw enough from both teams in the FSU-NC state game to leave them untouched:
With Virginia moving into "Lock", the projected wins are probably closer to 2.5-3 at this point. Even so, if we manage a victory against FSU on Saturday I still won't be breathing easy until the Tigers beat the Wolfpack in Raleigh.

Good Vibrations: For All Those Who Still Want To Believe

I havent been able to shake the utter disappointment from the Maryland game but I have found quiet hope and seen a glimmer of redemption in the simple fact that the Atlantic division is just awful this year. VT, GT, and Miami are superior teams right now--well lets hope GT is, and Virginia and Duke will beat someone in the Atlantic. So the point is that the winner of the Atlantic will assuredly have 2 losses but will more likely have three or four. So its going to be crowded and its going to come down to head to head records. Lets project two games into the future, shall we...

BC is the current front-runner--wait, the same BC we held to 50 yrds of offense and beat?? This is good for us bc BC plays/loses to VT this week and then plays NC State the next which is a toss-up. They will have at least two losses then, one of them to us!! We probably want State to win, bc the BC schedule then becomes the easiest of the remaining teams. NC the only remaining really tough game. So BC may have a 5-3 record in the conference 4-4 not out of the question.

Next threat is NC State--Tom O'Brien what is going on? They are 0-1 but a better team than they showed against Wake, probably the most dangerous team in terms of talent and coaching but lucky for us they have a tough schedule remaining--the play Duke this week and then BC the next but also have VT and NC. It would really help us if NC steps it up and can beat the majority of the Atlantic teams they play. I can easily see them being 5-3 or 4-4. Clemson needs to hold the tie breaker though.

Wake is very unpredictable. It seems to depend on the mood of Riley Skinner so I'm having a tough time placing them. They are 1-1 in conference and will play Maryland before playing us. If they beat Maryland we have to beat them but they do play Miami and GT which seem like two losses and an FSU team playing for Bowdens life so I think the losses will be there 5-3, 4-4.

Maryland is scary to me. They suck and we shouldnt have lost to them, but they have the weakest schedule in the division playing Duke and Virginia and then VT. Most teams are going to go 1-2 OOC but Maryland could go 2-1. We dont have the tie breaker so it feels more comfortable if they go 4-4, 5-3 spells doom. They play Wake and then Virginia so they could be 2-1 or 3-0 after next week.

Who would have thought we would be talking about FSU as the gutter dwellers of the pathetic Atlantic division. Things look even worse playing GT and at NC in the next two weeks. I dont think the 0-2 Noles are that bad a team but that loss to BC is mindbottling (thank you Will Ferrell), and I cant see them recovering to finish on top.

So there you have it. It looks like everyone is headed for 4-4 seasons. If Clemson can beat Wake, State, and FSU it can stand to lose to Miami and still come out on top. Unless Maryland gets crazy...

There is still hope Tiger fans and at least the defense is good. Can anyone imagine the absolute catastrophe this season would have been without CJ?? I mean its ugly enough already...

GT will make or break season

So it seems that after the first week its official--the ACC sucks again this year. I still say we are better than the Big Ten and rank third on the pecking order top to bottom but we are still in a down period for sure. This means that the two biggest games of the season are this Thursday and when we take on FSU.

If we can somehow get by Tech, which is not completely outside the realm of possibility, then the season looks not only doable but possibly magical. Yes my orange spectacles are on but just indulge me if you will. Our division looks bad--NC State wasnt special, Maryland got manhandled, Wake is down, and BC still doesnt have a QB. We will see how good FSU is tonight--it would be big if Miami gets the win. So really it comes down to who you play in the other division. GT will be good but I would rather play them than VT, and Virginia looked awful. We dont get to play another pathetic Duke team but we should get a pretty beat up Miami team.

My point is that with teams under-performing there will be parity and middling records. A win against GT puts us in the drivers seat and would create the buzz and momentum needed to build to a big enough let down (a Bowdenesque loss to an inferior team) to call it a true Clemson season. Yeah a loss wont break the season but it will send everyone back down to earth, a place we know all too well...

All I'm saying is that the crummy ACC could be all Dabo and company need this year, hopefully GT's young line isnt up to the task.

State/South Carolina Reactions, Ramblings

Wanted to get a few initial reactions up after that 7-3 snoozer. USuCk won 7-3. Good news is both teams looked bad on offense, really bad. NC State couldnt move the ball at all, Wilson looked really slow and could barely throw it ten yards and then when he did it went through or off the hands of his receivers. So no passing game and Baker didnt seem all that dynamic. One lineman down with a calf injury, so if you cover the TE then the offense is done. Obviously they will get better as O'Brien's well coached teams always do--so its bad that we get them later in the season but this is not a darkhorse team to take the Atlantic--if they are then any team could take it. Glennon was the best looking player on the offense...

South Carolina had moments where they looked impressive, the D was good, especially when they were fresh. The secondary will make mistakes but they have the athleticism. They would be an above average ACC team--better than I expected but their main problem as I see it is Stephen Garcia. There is no way he stays healthy all year round with his hurdling and the like. He is much improved, however, and they also have that mammouth TE. Anyone dogging on the TE need look no further than tonights game. Easy pass up the middle seam of the d for twenty yards.

Favorite moment of the night--number 25 Ben Axon appears on the ESPN screen(instead of a penalty by #4)--haha, even when the coots try to keep a drug dealer of the team, they somehow show-up. And what about the missed face mask?? Overall both of these teams will be beatable. I dont think much momentum in recruiting comes of this however. Spurrier just couldnt let his team run the ball--had to get them pass happy. The rest of his staff look good though. Too bad half of the schedule is in the top ten, haha suckers--got to love the ACC!!

PG, SG, and Donte Hill (My Diaper Dandy of the Week)

PG
Demontez Stitt had a successful freshman campaign but a lot was needed from him for Clemson to be a contender in his Soph season. Stitt remained average bc while he was able to penetrate and score in the first half of the season, an ankle injury limited his explosiveness for a period as he regressed in his assist to turnover ration and ft shooting.
Andre Young was a solid contributor off the bench who gained more confidence with each game. His outside shooting improved as the season progressed and had the best assist to turnover ratio of any Tiger. OP has not recruited any PG's in the 2010 class so I hold Young as the future-Stitt will still get the majority of the minutes going into 2010 but Young will continue to take more and more time away, eventually replacing him in the starting line-up. What Clemson will need is less of a playmaker and more of a distributor at PG as the season winds down. While being considerably undersized-look for Young to show the most progress of any freshmen from this season.

SG
Terrence Oglesby is on my bad list right now. What a frustrating player...I know he will work hard in the offseason and will improve, just like he did from his fresh to soph years but I would have no problem if OP yanked him from the starting line-up next year. He is a legit three point threat from anywhere on the court but fails to play within the flow of the system too often. Something that would help the entire team including TO would be to learn how to throw a variety of entry passes to the post. I dont know exactly where TO fits in next year, he isnt that great a defender and his moves driving to the basket need a lot of work, they were laughable at times this year and his meltdown versus Michigan was inexcusable. I guess you take the good with the bad and live with it but OP has found his new defensive replacement with incoming freshman Donte Hill. This kid covers like a blanket and while not flashing anything extraordinary on offense, he will add a new level of intensity to the press. I am really high on this kid and have a feeling that he will be a bigger contributer than we think come fall. The kid is solid, he is already physically built and rebounds like a small forward, which may be where he ends up. He is 6' 5 but may be closer to 6' 4 but really gets after it. He doesnt play above the rim but is athletic, takes good shots, and is fundamentally sound.

At the Charm City Challenge he played a great game. Something like 9 ACC recruits played with James Padgett(Maryland) and Richard Howell (NC St) being the supposed headliners but Donte had the best stat line earning All-Tourney honors. Padgett won the MVP with his 22 pts and 3 rebounds while Donte had 18 pts and 10 rebounds on 8 for 1o shooting, two for three behind the arc. You can see what I mean in this video of the game where he makes some nice drives and defensive plays. Obviously its an all-star crap game but he looks legit and looks like he can come in and play some real minutes in his first season at Clemson. Like I said--lots to look forward to!!

CLEMBENTIGERMAX POWER RANKINGS: TEAMS

First a word of preface--yes its a little late in the season but we've been meaning to do this for awhile. These arent the actual standings but how good the teams are doing currently and RPI rankings, SOS, my opinion, etc.

TEAM RANKINGS

1. North Carolina-Although not the unbeatable juggernaut they were at the beginning of the season-the core of Ellington, Hans, and Lawson is formidable-especially with Lawson more motivated to pick up his game as the end of the season looms.


2. Duke-No I dont want Duke to be this high but I cant justify putting FSU or Wake ahead of them. Somehow Coach K has been able to right the ship. Clemson exposed their lack of athleticism but that Coach K can still coach and, unfortunately, still star in credit card commercials. I still think there are too many white players, especially ones named Paulus, to have a chance at a deep NCAA run. Second round defeat sounds about right.
   


3. Florida State-After their solid defeat of Clemson I want to put them as number two but just cant do it after loosing to Duke. They are slightly ahead of an uneven Wake team and despite the loss are clicking down the stretch at the right time.


4. Wake Forest-Perhaps the most lottery talent on one team in the country. At times they are absolutely dominant but at other times cant figure out how to share the ball and play without passion. Too much selfish play. Granted they beat on FSU the first and only time they will play but losses to GT, NC State and a poor showing at Virginia and Maryland give me cause for concern.


5. Clemson-My Tigers just cant seem to get the ball in to T-Book. This team has been overachieving all year and has had a rocky week but its been a great ride. Still capable of beating any team in the league and perhaps the country when they are on. OP can flat out coach and hopefully makes the right adjustments down the stretch.
   
6. Boston College-Rice is the heart and soul of this team but they can lack consistency as evidenced by their loss to NC State. Must win against BC to secure NCAA bid and must find some scoring help to ease the burden on Rice. Its funny how a lot of these teams primary colors are the same...
   
7. Virginia Tech-This season has been a disappointing one for me and I'm sure for Hokies fans. After being shut out of the NCAA's last year and coach Greenberg wailing and moaning about it I think its safe to assume we will be hearing more of it. Bad ref work cost them at Duke and maybe even NC but they have to beat FSU and win some games in ACC tourney or its NIT city. Still this is a more talented team than their record indicates.
8. Maryland-Gary Williams should be commended for the job he has done with this team. Watching them almost beat a superior Wake squad is why I love college bball over the nba anyday. David 'churchballer' Neal and the Grevis man a team that is as much about heart as it is about skill.
   
9. Miami-Welcome to Miami, home of the most disappointing team in the ACC. Projected by some to finish third, with the loss to GT I think we can say that barring a massive run deep into the ACC tourney they have punched their NIT ticket. McClinton is still amazing and can still take over a game but this team just cant find any semblance of consistency.
10. NC State-Someone needs to give Coach Lowe a clue. He is the most awful coach in the ACC and his teams reflect it. State has picked it up here at the end of the year, beating BC and will give Miami a hard rub but its hard seeing how this team is going to rise out of mediocrity with Lowe at the helm.
11. Georgia Tech-I'm not sure I've ever seen a team do so little with so much talent. Paul Hewitt has been giving the aforementioned Coach Lowe a run for his money as the worst coach in the ACC this year. This team has the talent and potential but cant put it together and if it were not for the stellar recruiting class coming to GT, I would think that Hewitt's days would be numbered, regardless he is on a short leash heading into next year.
12. Virginia-The fact that Virginia is on the bottom of this list speaks to the relative strength of the ACC, top to bottom-perhaps the best conference in the country. This team is all about Landesberg, Chad Ford even has him going in the first round if he declares, but not much is surrounding him. If he goes the team is done for next year and I dont see Coach Leitao weathering the storm for much longer. There is some young talent here but it still needs a lot of developing.