UNC preview

UNC vs. Clemson, 9pm, 1/13, Littlejohn

Not much time but I wanted to get some quick thoughts out. This game is important to Clemson for two reasons: first, this is the first true "toss-up" game Clemson will play (in the sense that I have no idea who will win) and as I wrote in the last post playing your best basketball in toss-up games is the easiest way to pick up unexpected victories. Second, this game will mark the first test of Purnell's defensive adjustments this season; specifically, the willingness to frequently and unexpectedly throw different variations of full-court pressure at an opponent. We get to see if this is successful at slowing a high-octane offense that hung 103 points on us last season.

Of course, this isn't the same UNC team. I've watched them some and came to the obvious conclusion: the guard play just isn't the same as the last few years. When I delved into the statistics, though, I was surprised at what I found. They still play at a breakneck tempo (7th fastest in the country) and still score most of their points with the 2-point basket (5th in the country). But I was expecting to see a team struggling to make shots, but their effective field goal percentage is about as good as the 2008 and 2009 juggernauts. Instead, their biggest problem is a dramatic increase in turnovers on offense. Its not a product of bad luck either, they rank 317the in the country in having the ball stolen. This is great news for Clemson, since it plays right into our strengths: forcing turnovers and stealing the ball. They also don't force turnovers on defense, one of the worst in the league. One of their strengths on defense is not sending the other team to the line (best rate in the country), but this could also be construed as good news for the 63.5% shooting Tigers.

After looking at the stats, I'm a little more confident in Clemson's chances--but I have too strong a memory of UNC easily breaking the pressure last season that I still think this game could go relatively big either way. If Clemson can limit the amount of times the 'heels break the press and find an easy two-point basket, they could pretty easily win by ten points. If UNC unexpectedly holds onto the ball like BC managed to do last Saturday and finds some success in pushing the ball past the pressure, they could almost as easily win by ten points.