Clemson 81, Georgia Tech 73
Two for two, two left to go in the four games we need to win to be in good shape for a first round ACC bye. Still pretty crowded atop of the ACC standings, but I still think a 10-6 finish will get us in the top four. Not much time so I'll head right to the chart:
(Chart from Statsheet. I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
Just like in the first game, GT managed to keep it close--I didn't start feeling comfortable until around the six/seven minute mark and even then they stayed in striking range until the game was statistically at the 0:55 mark. That being said, I was mostly encouraged by the offensive play, making good decisions behind the arc resulting in some good shots from three point land. Coming into the game, GT was no slouch defensively on shots from behind the arc, holding opponents to 27.4%, but their three-point defense percentage took a hit in this game.
I think the defense mostly played well, outside the early going in the first half. Clemson's defense didn't force the number of turnovers we're accustomed to seeing--only 16--and not nearly as much as you might expect against a team averaging over 23 per game. This is going to happen on occasion to a team that concentrates so much of its defensive effort on forcing turnovers, there will be nights when Clemson just doesn't get the right bounces, deflections, or calls resulting in the other team scoring a few more points than you might expect. I suspect that this style of defense probably leads to a larger deviations in actual scoring versus expected scoring, something that might be interesting to look into. At any rate, you just have to hope that the unlucky nights happen when you're playing a bad offense (thank you Georgia Tech).
I can't be unhappy about the game from a standings perspective. This was the one out of the four I was most concerned about, and while it was tight, Clemson still won. On the other hand, the game didn't do much to allay concerns about matchup difficulties, and I think the distance we travel in the two post-season tournaments will still depend greatly on who we play. Hopefully Clemson can use the upcoming games against FSU and WF to test out adjustments, giving themselves a better chance to make a deep tourney run regardless of the opponent.
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