Surprised?

Alternate title: Long, slow end of the Swinney era, week 4 update

I'm a little confused about the reaction in the Clemson blogosphere. Sure, I was upset after the loss, but after the normal recovery time I can't say I was shocked. I don't really view this as a debacle, at least not on the order of Maryland 2009 when we were beat soundly by a bad, banged up team with no talent that was going through one of Friedgen's inexplicable phases where he doesn't really seem to care much about coaching. No, this was your standard BC team that doesn't feature an NFL-caliber quarterback: sound, fundamental line play highlighted by a stout front 7 on defense and an O-line that can open up holes for the running game. Yeah, they've struggled this year (rotating in potted plants at QB will do that for ya), but they've also improved as the year went along--particularly on defense.

In hindsight, its not surprising Clemson struggled; we rely on the run game to set up whatever pass yards we can scrounge up and BC's defense excels at stopping the run. I'm not sure why everyone was suddenly so confident in the pass game. Sure, Nuke Hopkins is hustling all over the field and generally showing up the entire WR corps, but he's still dropping passes and struggling to get separation (he's bound for good things in this league, but he's still a freshman). By the way, I'm also guilty of buying the "Kyle Parker is going to break out of his rut any game now" line, by now it's clear that Parker's 2009 success was largely the function of the NFL-caliber talent around him (Ford, Spiller, Palmer). He has potential, no doubt, but expecting him to spurn the MLB to save the season Spiller-style was pretty naive in retrospect.

But what of our superior talent, you ask? Its a good question, by all accounts we certainly have the advantage on paper. Here's my reply: remember how we aren't capable of developing talent? As an aside, on some level it must be a good feeling to be a BC fan; you get to watch your players develop into a team that is better than the sum of its parts. They aren't going to win any national championships anytime soon, but hey, you grow to love each and every team with each and every passing game. Not a bad life for a fan. Not a great life, but hey, better than rooting for a team that perpetually underperforms.

After the Miami game, I wrote that we were entering the long, slow end of the Swinney era. Nothing has happened to change my mind. The GT game was a blip, a game against a decent team that we actually matched up well with (our D-line was strong enough to disrupt the option all game long and our O-line was matched up against a small defensive front). We might even beat NCSU (50-50, I'd say) or FSU (bit of a longshot), since our defense should be able to limit the damage from their offenses and we will be able to run the ball at least on occasion. But even wins in these games aren't going to change the fact our talent doesn't develop and we've been consistently outcoached (or coached ourselves into the ground) this season.

I also stand by my previous assessment that Swinney lives to see next year (with fall-guy Napier getting the axe, of course). I just don't sense the anger on the blogs seeping into the mainstream fan's conscious, at least not yet. The real standard for Swinney's departure should probably be this: a currently modest draft class losing commitments and plummeting in value. The football program will then officially be without a single functioning strength. In that case, you can't give Swinney another year to wreck the program for the next five, it's time to cut your losses and move on.

Brief Coaching Analysis: Part 1 Al Skinner

So TDP out is interviewing coaches which is good because we need to get this done and have a coach take back control of this program. Thornton is asking to be let out of his LOI which will happen but he is not against returning to Clemson(although he better understand that he is not going to be allowed to go to another ACC school--thats just standard LOI practice, everyone, everywhere does it). So the first thing I want the new coach to do is go and park his car outside the Thornton home and stay there until the ink dries on his LOI to Clemson.

Next I want him to drive to Union and the home of the Booker's to stroke the ego and let Devin know he will be a focal point of the offense. I was going to write a post about how I hate it when players whine about playing time as freshman (especially when they play more on average than any other freshman and even start a couple of games) but truth be told D Book is our only legit back to the basket post presence and if someone would teach a guard how to throw the ball into the post he could do some damage. No one else will...Bobo?? Grant is a nice complimentary post player and has made great strides but will struggle as the main offensive post threat.

So lets look at who has interviewed thus far. We begin with Al Skinner.

#1 Al Skinner--Fired recently from BC, he has the most wins in BC school history. He is immaculately dressed all the time. At home he sports a tie and on the road a turtleneck or sweater combo (but never a tie on the road). He seems to never wear the same suit twice in a season. I'm not even joking.

His offense is really boring. He played for the ABA Nets team with Julius Erving. He runs a Flex offense where cutters cut across the floor. You may remember the offense from watching your local high school bc it is what the majority of teams run because its pretty simple and gets everyone moving. What BC did nicely was to really pack in the floor making it a very physical game. Learning how to set screens is something Clemson players have never learned so that would be a welcome change.

My feeling right now with Skinner is that we could do worse. He knows how to coach fundamentals. His teams have done alright in the past--he coached some good Rhode Island teams in the 90's to the tournament (the 2nd Round!!) and his Dudley teams at BC were good making it as far as the Sweet 16. But they have been lackluster this past year and losing seasons in 2 of the past 3 seasons doesn't sit well. It seems that Skinner has lost some of his passion for the game, he has never been an amazing recruiter. I think he develops the talent he has adequately though. He has never recruited much directly in the south and he is not young. I feel at this point that he is a fallback after we shoot a little higher.

Boston College Recap

I'm going to do these recaps as often as possible during the ACC season, similar to what I was doing last year...

College Basketball

I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)

Now we're in trouble. When I said yesterday we were still on pace for 10-6 or 9-7, I neglected to mention that the margin for error was a lot thinner than three weeks ago. When you lose all the games you're supposed to lose, then you have to win the games you're supposed to win. Now we're looking at 8-8 and trending towards 7-9. I originally listed the road game at Maryland as a toss-up, but the way Maryland's been playing, that's looking more and more like wishful thinking.

Bullet points:

• This game was lost on lax defense in the first half. Yeah, the first half offense wasn't great either, but you can't give up 42 points to Boston College of all teams in the first half and expect to win.
• I've been semi-sorta defender of Potter in the past, but that was the latest in a string of invisible to bad performances. His defense in the first half was bad and only passable in the second half. With the drop-off to from Potter to Johnson arguably non-existent right now, there's no reason not to give Johnson the playing time. The coaching staff has to think about the long-term future of the club, and giving Johnson playing time should help ensure that he develops into more than, well, David Potter. I'm not holding my breath; Purnell has always had a veteran fetish of sorts.
• I've said it since last year: Tanner Smith should be a shooter. He's not a driver. This is clearly becoming one of the worst personnel mistakes of the Purnell era. No one's saying Smith is a gifted or natural shooter, but if he had spent the last two years working on his jump-shot (not just the 3-point shot) instead of driving the lane...wouldn't that be a nice offensive skill to have right now?
• How many times did we see Dallas Elmore pull up and nail a wide-open jump shot? That's what Tanner Smith should be doing right now instead of embarking on wild lane-drive after wild lane-drive.
• I'm really tired of hearing about how difficult ACC road games are. Give me a break. Home-court advantage gives you about a three point advantage relative to a neutral court. If you are a better team by more than three points, you should beat the other team on the road, not dig yourself into 17 point halftime deficits. Losing coaches and announcers kissing up to losing coaches like to frame ACC road games as possessing some magical property that prevents better teams from winning. I find this extremely annoying. There's a much simpler and believable explanation: lots of ACC teams are losing on the road because there's a lot of parity in the conference this year.
• This, however, was not one of those games. We should have won. This wasn't a case like last year when we lost to Virginia on what I felt was a bizarre series of bad calls and bad bounces all adding up to an improbable loss. We got beat because the other team played largely solid fundamentals and we didn't. We were lax on defense in the first half. The players and coaches are to blame for not getting ready.
• But perhaps the blame should rest more on the coaches for Tuesday's debacle. Not only was the team flat, but we were outcoached. We're seeing something pretty amazing this year in the ACC: teams are all starting to add real pressure to their defensive looks. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, but the coaching staff needs to adjust. We haven't gotten killed by turning the ball over (so far) but BC and GT both used the pressure to shorten the game clock against an offense that already has problems getting open shots in the halfcourt. I know Purnell's dictum is that good defense leads to good offense, but he has to adjust. There's no excuse--he has the personnel now to implement a better half-court offense.
• Along these lines, we're starting to see the template for opposing ACC coaches against Clemson: run a halfway competent full-court pressure defense and play tight man-to-man. Has the added bonus of slowing the game down and keeping the number of times you have to break Clemson's press to a minimum.
• This goes back to the point I've been worried about since the offseason. Will Purnell try to force the more gifted offensive players he's recruiting into playing his system, or will he be flexible and creative enough to bend and adjust the system to accommodate the talents he's recruited. Remember, this is the first time in his career he's recruited players on par with other more storied programs. By this point, the verdict is all but in: Purnell has opted for the less flexible route.
• Jerai Grant always "comes out" against inferior defensive teams, Len.

There's plenty more to write, but I'll try to pick something out and be a bit more coherent later in the week. I can't believe I'm saying this, but the coaching staff better make some adjustments or we're headed back to the NIT this year. Last year when it was clear the ACC had developed an effective gameplan against Clemson, I argued that Clemson's roster construction left Purnell without any real options and no way to really adjust. This year, there's no excuse.

Boston College Preview 2

Clemson vs. Boston College, 01/26, 7:00pm, Conte Forum

Only got a few minutes here, I've been back at the 14 hour work day again...things should calm down by the end of the week. I wanted to drop in and comment quickly on the upcoming BC game and the general state of Clemson basketball.

About three weeks ago I wrote that Boston College, N.C. State, and Virginia were bringing up the rear of the ACC this season. Since that time, BC has managed to distinguish itself from the pack, in a bad way. It's not really that BC has played terribly, they beat a better than-their-record indicates Miami team and nearly knocked off VT, both on the road. But they haven't played well against better teams, getting absolutely blown out by Duke, Clemson, and Maryland, with the Maryland game at home. At the same time, I've been reasonably impressed with the positive steps forward by NC State and Virginia so far this season, leaving BC at a distance behind. I think you can make a strong argument at this point that BC is in a bit of a tailspin as a program, its now going on three years since they were a legitimate bubble team, if there is such a thing. BC is still a team struggling on defense mainly because they can't force turnovers and secondarily because they don't defend the shot particularly well. On offense they can't shoot the ball, particularly from behind the arc. Raji and Tripani have been doing a pretty good job getting some open looks, but if the team they are playing has any semblance of an offense, its hard for them to slow it down enough.

Of course, Clemson's offense will be lacking the services of Demontez Stitt and frankly hasn't looked great lately, but this is absolutely a game Clemson should win. I know it's a long road trip to frigid Boston for a two hour game on a Tuesday night, and I know that a lot of people view Stitt as the key to the offense, but this is still the very definition of a winnable ACC road game for the Tigers--they have to take advantage. (By the way, I like the decision to hold Stitt out for this game. Clemson shouldn't need him to get some offense going against BC and if he's not close to 100%, he's just blocking time that would be better spent with Young at the helm. As in the Duke game, when he doesn't have his explosive first step, he's not worth much on the floor. Plus, I'm really worried that he injured himself more severely in the last five minutes of the GT game.)

That brings me to the general state of Clemson basketball. I didn't get a chance to write up the Duke game because I was swamped at work, but ClemBen did a pretty admirable job of summing up my feelings in rant form. With a couple of days to reflect, though, Clemson is right where I thought they would be about three weeks ago. Sure, I thought they would be less competitive in a game where they nearly pulled the upset (GT) and more competitive in a game they never really had a chance in (Duke), but really your opinion of the Tigers shouldn't change anymore after the last two games than it should have after the blowout win over UNC. Duke's a championship caliber team this year and while of course I would have liked to have been more competitive, that's really a game where we need a healthy Stitt to create some offense. Meanwhile, UNC (1-3 so far in ACC play) isn't turning out to be much of a team this season.

Last two games notwithstanding, Clemson is still on track for a 9-7 or 10-6 season (leaning towards 9-7) with an NCAA tournament invitation. Lose to BC today, though, and we'll be fighting the "bubble team" label all the way into March.

Boston College Recap I

I'm going to do these recaps as often as possible during the ACC season, similar to what I was doing last year...

The first two ACC games for Clemson do a pretty good job of sketching out the basic structure of the conference this year: we were beaten soundly by a Duke team that appears to be alone at the top of the league and then our team, a leader amongst a glut of talented but flawed teams in the middle of the league, handled BC, which along with Virginia and possibly NC State bring up the rear of the league. Now, I know the GT just knocked off Duke at home, but I would put them with Clemson at the top of the middle pack; a great game at home for these teams will be enough to at least hang with Duke. (Clemson has the same shot at an upset in a couple of weeks). To the chart:

College Basketball

(Chart from Statsheet. I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)

Not much to say about this game, as it went more or less how I envisioned it (hey, there's a first time for everything...). The biggest surprise was probably that the Tigers only managed to "force" only 14 turnovers but still cruised. BC, one of the worst stealing teams in the nation, actually managed to ring up 9 steals to our 8. We countered this somewhat by blocking 8 shots (nice showing by Booker with 4). Most pleasant surprise of the game? Probably the play of Noel Johnson. Sure, he turned the ball over 3 times but he also was responsible for 3 steals, found himself a few rebounds, and generally looked pretty confident with his positioning on the court. Also a decent looking game for Jennings. Here's why I'm pleasantly surprised: if these guys can't give quality minutes against BC, then their seasons are pretty much finished.

Onwards to UNC on Wednesday. This is probably the most intriguing match-up of the season, because I have absolutely no idea what to expect. Clemson's made some adjustments should end up countering how Roy Williams' has been playing us the last couple of years, but I'm getting ahead of myself...that's for the next post.

Boston College Preview 1

Boston College vs. Clemson, 01/09, 4:00pm, Littlejohn

Clemson hosts BC this weekend; along with the Virginia game at Littlejohn, this game represents probably the only two remaining games on the schedule where Clemson should be heavily favored. That's more a reflection of the strength of the ACC this season than any inherent weakness in the Clemson team.

Not to say BC is a complete pushover, while they sport a pretty dismal 10-5 record, they only have two really bad losses: at home against Maine and St. Joseph's. Losses to Northern Iowa, Harvard, and Rhode Island aren't as bad as they might seem; Northern Iowa is a bubble NCAA tournament team, Harvard should battle Cornell for the Ivy League title, and Rhode Island will get some NCAA consideration (although that's largely because they play in the overrated Atlantic 10). Meanwhile, BC already knocked off a talented albeit largely untested Miami squad in their ACC opener.

That being said, in general terms BC profiles as the kind of team that Clemson has played well against in recent years: decent to good offense packaged with a distinctly below average defense. If we dig into the stats a little deeper, it only gets better for the Tigers. On offense, BC doesn't shoot particularly well (a dismal 32.9% from long range) and they are at best league average in taking care of the ball. On defense, BC can't force turnovers at all, coming in at 302nd in Division I. Their steal percentage is 340th out of 347 teams. This obviously bodes well for Clemson, a team who's biggest weakness on offense is losing the ball.

Two possible problems to watch out for in the game: 1) BC defends the shot reasonably well so Clemson will have to work for good looks (hopefully without taking more than 35 seconds). 2) BC does a good job on the offensive glass. In part this can be attributed to their poor 3-pt shooting (bad 3 point shooting teams will grab long rebounds), but they also have some height which suggests some real ability.

All in all, it should more or less be a cakewalk. I expect Clemson to come out focused for their home ACC opener and put up some points early, hopefully giving the freshmen plenty of playing time tomorrow.

FEI Week 10; ACC Outlook Update

Clemson rises to #9 from #13 in the latest FEI rankings. A lot of this is inflated by the ACC spotting the 6-9 teams in the rankings. In fairness, though, a lot of the ACC movement results from the teams that were ahead last week dropping like rocks this week--Oregon, Iowa, Oklahoma, Boise State, and Pitt.

Clemson's schedule eases up the last three weeks, playing three sub-forty teams including next week at #55 NC State. A lot of parallels will be drawn in general terms to the on-field results of NC State and FSU this season, both feature bad defenses and good offenses. Looking at it a little closer, though, NC State features the 11th ranked offense in the country, but its still a relatively large step down from the FSU offense. Meanwhile, they've struggled with the #68 defense, but this is instead a relatively large step up from the FSU defense. These two observations might indicate that NC State will give Clemson the same amount of trouble as FSU, but this overlooks field position advantage. Clemson ranks #12 on the legs of Spiller and Ford, while NC State is an abysmal #115 (out of 120). If Clemson pulls away early, it could very well be on the strength of special teams.

Here's how I see the last two ACC games:
Clemson is still projected to finish 5-3 or 6-2; but we increase our odds slightly over BC because we have two games remaining instead of three (easier to go 2-0 than 3-0). If we win this week though, it just about sinks BC who still has what looks like an increasingly tough UNC game left on their schedule.

Reassessing Clemson's remaining ACC schedule

Last week, I went through Clemson's remaining schedule and based on their level of play at the time, I concluded Clemson was looking at a 6-6 or 5-7 overall finish. But, to essentially give myself some wiggle room to back out of that prediction, I ended the post with this:

Now, if somehow the coaching staff manages to straighten out some of the play-calling hijinks and we come out and with a strong performance driven by an improved offense to beat Wake, then the [schedule prediction] will need readjustment.

While I'm not naive enough to think we've fixed all the problems on offense, I'm happy to admit I was overly pessimistic in the last assessment. By my reckoning, we have now played 11 competitive quarters against average to below average defenses, and we've played competent offense in 6 of those (2 for GT, 1 for Maryland, and 3 for Wake). I'm sure that's not the level of consistency Napier and Swinney are looking for and while the 3 ridiculous quarters in Maryland are still a giant red flag, it means we should be able to put something resembling a productive offense on the field at least half of the time against middling defenses. The good news: none of our final four ACC opponents are particularly known for solid defenses, and some have been downright bad. The possible exception here is Virginia, but they've carved out some goodwill for Al Groh by beating the following teams: North Carolina (has struggled on offense this year), Indiana, and Maryland. I'm not buying it until I see them hold down Miami or Georgia Tech in the coming weeks.

Here's how I see it now:

Clemson finishes with between 2-4 wins, giving a 4-4 finish on the pessimistic side with a 6-2 finish on the optimistic side. The most likely scenario, however, is a 5-3 finish. Does this give us the division title? Probably not. Boston College has a very soft schedule (at Maryland, at Virginia, and home for North Carolina); I'd give them about 3:2 odds right now of winning out. Anyone else tired of BC and their illegitimate division titles?

Quick Boston College Recap

Got company in from out of town, so got to throw up some thoughts quick or wait several more days. It's pretty clear that I overestimated BC in my preview, so my enthusiasm is a bit more tempered than one might otherwise expect coming off a 25-7 thrashing. BC's offense is still a work in progress (hey, I know another team that has that same problem, and they were playing on the same field last Saturday!), and they just didn't look like a contender on Saturday. But hey, you gotta thrash the non-contenders on your way to a championship. To the bullet points!

Defense

• 2 straight dominant starts against ACC opponents. Absolutely controlled the line, and the secondary looked good in coverage all day (how about that McDaniel, huh?)
• Did I just watch an entire Clemson football game featuring solid individual and team tackling on defense? A sight for sore eyes. (How about that McDaniel, huh?)
• As bad as BC's offense looked, its good to keep in mind they still feature a large and talented (if raw) offensive line. We weren't overwhelming some Division II line.
• Welcome to the land of "living up to your much-hyped potential", Mr. Sapp. Stick around a while, please.

Special Teams

• What can I say? I scoffed at our performance against MTSU, waiting to pass judgement until we faced some quality opponents. Well, the verdict is in: We are freakin' awesome.
• I'll try to expand on this with another post later in the week, but special teams has really been an offensive and defensive weapon for us this season by allowing us to control field position relative to the other team. Sure, Zimmerman is a bit of a weak link but it hasn't mattered much thanks to excellent coverage and excellent returns.
• Let's not forget Richard Jackson. All we need is a game-winning kick for the David Treadwell comparisons to start.

Offense

• Yeah, what do you say? Parker is telegraphing his passes and making some poor decisions, never a good combination. The O-line got very little push, enough for us to occasionally pick up a first down but not enough to establish any consistency. Struggled to execute downfield blocking, resulting in quite a few plays that were blown up before getting started.
• Bad bubble-screen flashbacks (even though I actually like the bubble screen when called on occasion, like once every couple of games in the right situation)
• One thing to keep in mind, though: this lackluster performance came at the hands of a good defense. I was wrong about the state of BC's offense but I will still argue that BC's defense could end up being one of the better we see all season. I thought they had excellent play in the secondary, and they were a disciplined, strong team that was able to consistently push through our blocks. The O-line is never going to dominate a team for four quarters, but that was a tough assignment.
• Unfortunately for us, though, it doesn't look as though things will get too much better until after next week, as TCU has an allegedly good defense.
• Good news on Hairston's injury, though.

Lightning Delay

So we have a lightning delay. Word is Hairston is injured, bad knee injury...sucks. I dont like this delay--we were beating BC with our depth more than anything but I dont think we can really lose at this point. Hopefully we can just outlast it and not suffer anymore injuries.

Raycom...your picture sucks--its time to upgrade your cameras, HD cameras arent that expensive these days...

Boston College Preview

Boston College vs. Clemson, 9/19, 12:00pm, Death Valley

Tigermax:

Clemben's on the shelf right now without a functional computer or means to purchase a new one, but maybe he trudges down to the local library to post a few thoughts before the game starts. Since he has a natural aversion to reading, I'm not holding my breath.
Clemben edit: yes I'm not going to the public library but apparently I can tediously use my phone. I'm not convinced bc can do it this year-without Herzlich and breaking in three new linebackers plus two NFL D lineman gone..that's a tall order for a new coach. But I am less encouraged seeing miami smack georgia tech around. I hope we can run on them but I am worried about the BC oline even though the qb position is a mess. I think they can keep it close and play a field position game with their good special teams but if it comes down to it I like our rookie qbover theirs.

I've already mentioned how important this game is to Clemson. A loss and you're 0-2 in the conference, and to have a shot at winning the division (not a guarantee mind you, just a chance) you need to finish 5-1 in conference play. Granted, you can make a convincing argument that GT and BC make up two-thirds of our more difficult ACC games (with FSU rounding out the list), but asking the team to win three road games at NC State, Coral Gables, and Maryland as well as beat either WF or FSU is still an extremely tall order. In other words, lose tomorrow and the season's effectively over, at least as far as BCS hopes go. There's still the biennial beatdown to administer in Columbia and a Florida-based bowl to play for, but it would be quite the downer to shift focus in that direction with the season just getting underway.

On the other hand, a win puts us at 1-1 and gives us some space to breath--a 4-2 record still leaves you right in contention. With this much on the line, shouldn't be any problems motivating the team, particularly with our motivator extraordinaire at the helm.

So what about Boston College? I've watched a bit of them this year, and it looks like they are moving farther and farther away from the Tom O'Brien grind-it-out years and into a West Coast-style offensive scheme. The good news: this plays to one of the supposed strengths of our defense, the CB position. The bad news: BC features yet another heavy OL, and could very well push us around at the point of attack, as we have seen for several years. It also means I'm not expecting much pressure on the pass. A west coast offense with lots of time is going to carve you to pieces, excellent CBs or not. I'll be looking to see if we can at least keep the running game from developing in the early going, building off of what we saw last week. That would leave us a little more free to drop an extra man back in coverage.

On offense, Clemson's running game last week looked the best I've seen in a while against a decent defense. The question is, can we look anywhere near as impressive against arguably the best defense in the league? I know a lot of people were down on the Eagles coming into the season: they lost some names on defense and they had the whole bizarre Jagodzinski situation. Also, shutting down Kent State and Northeastern doesn't mean an awful lot in gauging a team's talent. But overlooking all this, BC is still big and still disciplined on both sides of the ball. That's spelled trouble in the past for us and I expect it will be trouble again on Saturday. I'm afraid we'll be relying on the big play, hoping some of our superior skill players can break off a few large gains to set up scores.

I was going to "boldly" predict a close Tigers win at the end here, but after reading what I just wrote I'm more convinced than ever that this game is essentially a push, possibly tilting towards the the home-field Tigers. I think we clearly have the edge on overall talent, but I'm afraid its concentrated in areas that play towards BC's strengths. Should be a great game and constantly reminding myself how much is on the line will keep me on the edge of my seat.

GO TIGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (yes, extra exclamation points to help the team. just tryin' to do my part)

Georgia Tech Recap

As I mentioned before, I have to force myself to take a couple of days off after tough losses before posting anything on the blog. Mostly to calm down, but it also allows a little perspective to seep in.

Anyways, the hilariously display of inept coaching and poor play for all units in the first quarter just about left me in a blind rage. That's why it was so unusual, even in crushing, last-minute defeat, to feel so calm and even cautiously optimistic after it was over. There were lots of things to like in the last three quarters.

Defense
I halfway expected to give up a big play or two early in the game. When you play Paul Johnson's offense, I think it takes a few series to really get into flow of the defensive attack. No matter how much you practice, come game time there's going to be an adjustment period. Its a shame that led to the long TD run, but there you have it. After the first quarter though, watching the defense was just a thing of beauty. The DEs where pressuring the outside, the secondary was covering, and even the linebackers were doing a decent job of wrapping up (still too many "hits" instead of tackles, particularly in that first quarter, but its still an improvement). And what can you say about the guard play in the middle of the D-line. It seems the last 2-4 years that if we didn't get penetration into the backfield on a run, the opposing team was picking up an automatic 5-6 yards. We just couldn't stuff power runs. What I saw in those last three quarters brought back memories of defenses long past. Not that I had much doubt, but this year's defense is going to be just fine.

Offense
Terrible, terrible first half--MTSU redux, with the Spiller reception filling in for the long Ford reception. I was all but typing my screeds pointed at Napier and Swinney, but then two things happened that I haven't seen in some time: 1) we actually started pushing around another ACC team's D-line with regularity, and 2) we started executing plays on every down of the drive. The second point is relieving because we have so much youth at the skill positions, but its the first point that separates this 2-quarter run of success from the Rob Spence era. We were running the ball with authority, and the offense was keyed off the run game. I loved it. Add in the explosive Spiller and Ford and you have a recipe for putting some points on the board.

Unfortunately, its time to throw some water on the optimism. GT isn't exactly known for its defense (probably around ACC average) and the D-line is undersized, albeit athletic and quick. Before I get excited, I want to see if they can replicate point #1 against a better defense. Coincidentally enough, the criminally underrated Boston College is coming to town this week, sporting a preseason projected third-best defense in Division I (or FBS or whatever they're calling it) according to FEI.

Also, we have no two-minute drill. In the three drives that were operating under the guise of two-minute drill (2 at the end of the first half and the final drive of the game), we managed to net 5 yards. And we didn't look like we had any idea of what we were doing.

Special Teams
53 yard FG!!!!!!! I think this amped me up as much as any play in the game.

Implications
I mentioned last week that this game didn't mean all that much, provided we beat an underrated Boston College this week. I also said that if we play a close game against GT, win or lose, we would be in contention for the Division title. I'd like to punt that last prediction down the road one more week, because no matter how good we look if we lost to BC the season is effectively over. Unless you plan on Clemson going 5-1 the rest of the ACC season.

Quick MTSU thoughts, a look ahead

While I feel its my job to inject some pessimism into the blog, I'll save it for the GT preview. But I do want to post a couple of quick thoughts:

• After the MTSU game, I felt like a high schooler suddenly reassured that the varsity team can beat the J.V. team. I guess its all the Stockstill & Co. talk getting to me.
• As such, the end results don't mean much but there were some positives to take away from the game. On balance, I liked the play-calling on offense (yay power formations!) and I liked what I saw from Parker, raw but displayed some pocket awareness and also should move around enough to keep opposing defenses honest.
• While its not predictive of future performance (because we were playing MTSU), was that the best single-game special teams performance in, I don't know, the last five years?
• Despite looking horrible Saturday, I'm thinking it ain't a bad thing having a player like Willy Korn around as the backup QB.
• The real season starts this week. I agree with Clemben's post below, but I would extend the "make or break us" sentiment to the next two weeks. We have one game that tilts against us and another that tilts towards us (I'm not nearly as down on BC as some others are, it seems). Lose both and its a long climb back into division contention.
• Miami did us a real favor last night. I don't expect them to lose any "how did that happen?" kind of game this year, so every close loss for FSU is a big plus for Clemson. Its still way too early, but with NC State's (and to a lesser extent, Wake's) disappointing start, it looks like Clemson could really contend. We'll see come Thursday.

GO TIGERS!!!

CLEMBENTIGERMAX POWER RANKINGS: TEAMS

First a word of preface--yes its a little late in the season but we've been meaning to do this for awhile. These arent the actual standings but how good the teams are doing currently and RPI rankings, SOS, my opinion, etc.

TEAM RANKINGS

1. North Carolina-Although not the unbeatable juggernaut they were at the beginning of the season-the core of Ellington, Hans, and Lawson is formidable-especially with Lawson more motivated to pick up his game as the end of the season looms.


2. Duke-No I dont want Duke to be this high but I cant justify putting FSU or Wake ahead of them. Somehow Coach K has been able to right the ship. Clemson exposed their lack of athleticism but that Coach K can still coach and, unfortunately, still star in credit card commercials. I still think there are too many white players, especially ones named Paulus, to have a chance at a deep NCAA run. Second round defeat sounds about right.
   


3. Florida State-After their solid defeat of Clemson I want to put them as number two but just cant do it after loosing to Duke. They are slightly ahead of an uneven Wake team and despite the loss are clicking down the stretch at the right time.


4. Wake Forest-Perhaps the most lottery talent on one team in the country. At times they are absolutely dominant but at other times cant figure out how to share the ball and play without passion. Too much selfish play. Granted they beat on FSU the first and only time they will play but losses to GT, NC State and a poor showing at Virginia and Maryland give me cause for concern.


5. Clemson-My Tigers just cant seem to get the ball in to T-Book. This team has been overachieving all year and has had a rocky week but its been a great ride. Still capable of beating any team in the league and perhaps the country when they are on. OP can flat out coach and hopefully makes the right adjustments down the stretch.
   
6. Boston College-Rice is the heart and soul of this team but they can lack consistency as evidenced by their loss to NC State. Must win against BC to secure NCAA bid and must find some scoring help to ease the burden on Rice. Its funny how a lot of these teams primary colors are the same...
   
7. Virginia Tech-This season has been a disappointing one for me and I'm sure for Hokies fans. After being shut out of the NCAA's last year and coach Greenberg wailing and moaning about it I think its safe to assume we will be hearing more of it. Bad ref work cost them at Duke and maybe even NC but they have to beat FSU and win some games in ACC tourney or its NIT city. Still this is a more talented team than their record indicates.
8. Maryland-Gary Williams should be commended for the job he has done with this team. Watching them almost beat a superior Wake squad is why I love college bball over the nba anyday. David 'churchballer' Neal and the Grevis man a team that is as much about heart as it is about skill.
   
9. Miami-Welcome to Miami, home of the most disappointing team in the ACC. Projected by some to finish third, with the loss to GT I think we can say that barring a massive run deep into the ACC tourney they have punched their NIT ticket. McClinton is still amazing and can still take over a game but this team just cant find any semblance of consistency.
10. NC State-Someone needs to give Coach Lowe a clue. He is the most awful coach in the ACC and his teams reflect it. State has picked it up here at the end of the year, beating BC and will give Miami a hard rub but its hard seeing how this team is going to rise out of mediocrity with Lowe at the helm.
11. Georgia Tech-I'm not sure I've ever seen a team do so little with so much talent. Paul Hewitt has been giving the aforementioned Coach Lowe a run for his money as the worst coach in the ACC this year. This team has the talent and potential but cant put it together and if it were not for the stellar recruiting class coming to GT, I would think that Hewitt's days would be numbered, regardless he is on a short leash heading into next year.
12. Virginia-The fact that Virginia is on the bottom of this list speaks to the relative strength of the ACC, top to bottom-perhaps the best conference in the country. This team is all about Landesberg, Chad Ford even has him going in the first round if he declares, but not much is surrounding him. If he goes the team is done for next year and I dont see Coach Leitao weathering the storm for much longer. There is some young talent here but it still needs a lot of developing.
    

BOSTON COLLEGE RECAP

Stats by StatSheet.com

(Cool chart from Statsheet. I think I like win probability charts a little more, but I haven't been able to find them for NCAA basketball games and this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)

Clemson 87, Boston College 77

After a rocky first few minutes, I thought Clemson settled in and pretty much had there way on offense. Boston College was getting good pressure on the perimeter early and denying the pass inside, but then something happened I haven't seen in a while from Clemson--good second and third passes inside the arc. This helped them find open people around the basket and eventually opened up the outside shot. The guard play was tremendous today, both Stitt and Oglesby took care of the ball and moved it around very well. I mentioned in the preview that Boston College's defense isn't great, but the stats indicate this isn't necessarily true around the perimeter, so that shouldn't take anything away from Oglesby and Stitt's performances.

The defense looked great, too--forcing turnovers against a team that handles the ball well. Sure, they gave up a lot on the glass, but that's going to happen to a team that presses like Clemson. I thought in the first half BC was pushing Clemson around underneath and grabbing a few too many boards in Clemson's halfcourt defense. But Clemson righted the ship pretty well in the second half and got a lot more active on the boards on both sides of the court. As an aside, I don't think we should be too bothered by Clemson's negative rebounding deficit. Even in the halfcourt set, I think Purnell gets his guys to focus on pressuring the shooter, with rebounding being more secondary. Its not uncommon to see two sets of hands in a shooters face when the ball gets down in the blocks. My guess is Purnell feels the value gained from forcing a bad shot compensates for giving up the occasional offensive rebound.

I think there was a lot of (understandable) handwringing in the blogosphere and from the media after the Florida State loss. But I gotta say, i think its best to keep in mind that we now have a reasonable sample size of 23 games and the computers, sportswriters, and coaches all agree that this is easily a top fifteen team, translating to a top four seed in the tourney. Now, its true that certain teams present matchup problems for the Tigers (specifically: tall teams), but despite my earlier warning, with a favorable draw there's no reason to think this team can't make a deep run in the tourney. I'm just saying its an exciting time to be a Clemson basketball fan...

A few ClemBen notes...

• Is TO trying to steal the label of most hated white guy in college bball away from Greg Paulsen. That dunk when the game was over is just asking for it. But hey, I give him credit--I certainly didnt think he could get that high up with such ease.
• Sykes definitely stepped up big. Grant is having the kind of season off the bench that has anchored the team on the interior at times this season--something I dont think many foresaw happening, but with four fouls this was perhaps Sykes standout performance of the year. Turns out he is a pretty nice guy too.
• I got pretty nervous when Rice went NBA isolation on us for something like eight straight points near the end. I questioned keeping the press on when BC got into the double bonus especially with Rice getting fouled and shooting a lights out percentage in ACC conference play. Turns out it was the right decision and forced some turnovers but I think we should pay attention to the physical stamina of the team down the homestretch--particulary with Booker at the top of the press. If some key players hit the proverbial wall then our transition game will suffer, its at least something to look out for as the season progresses and we position ourselves for tourney time.
  

BOSTON COLLEGE PREVIEW

(2/10, 9:00pm, Chestnut Hill, MA)

In contrast to the FSU game, I'm upbeat about tonight's game. Boston College features a top-thirty offensive team and a slightly better than average division I defense, but don't worry, this is good for the second-worst defense in the ACC. On offense, BC favors the inside game, crashing the boards to pick up easy points. Look for a physical game inside when BC has the ball; I expect Sykes, Potter, and Grant to take every opportunity to use their 12-15 fouls. Unfortunately, the Golden Eagles are not too shabby from the line, ranking 63rd in division I. The very good news for Clemson is BC lacks heigth, getting blocked on 11.4% of all 2-point shots this year. Get ready for some highlights...

On the other end of the floor, its worth noting that despite an overall sub-par defense, BC is good at defending the three. What I'm not sure about is if this will translate into getting good pressure on the perimeter, definitely something to look for early in the game. But beyond defending the three well, BC struggles to force turnovers, struggles to keep opposing teams off the glass, and gives up a lot of points underneath. Expect Clemson to run through Booker early and often, with any early three attempts probably coming in transition or before BC gets set in the halfcourt.

Of the teams Clemson has played so far, Miami profiles the closest to BC. Good offense, average to mediocre defense. We all know what happened in the Miami game--I'm not expecting a double digit route, but Clemson has to be the favorite here. If they have problems feeding the post, or Booker lands in foul trouble, the game will likely end up close. I would also mention stamina as a possible factor since we only have a three day turnaround, but BC is coming off a Sunday night drubbing at Wake Forest, which should pretty much cancel things out. Besides, Clemson better get used to it--after the first Virginia game its all three days rest or less until the stretch before the regular season finale at Wake.