GEORGIA TECH PREVIEW

(Atlanta, 2/22, 1:00pm)

Round two of the must-win series of four games (Maryland, GT, VT, Virginia) for Clemson to be in good shape for a first round in the ACC tourney. Of the four games, this one scares me the most--GT brings some of the same matchup problems we've talked about before. Granted, the 63-51 score from just under a month ago may give the impression we have already beaten them once handily, but if you recall the game was tight until the final 7 minutes or so and keeping the high-powered Clemson offense to 63 points on its home court is no small accomplishment for GT.

The difficulty for Clemson lies in GT's solid defense. They don't really specialize in doing one thing extremely well, but feature a balanced attack, ranking in the top 65 in most major defensive categories--good for 36th best defensive efficiency in the country. Fortunately, the one area they are weakest in is forcing turnovers, one of the more problematic areas of Clemson's offense. The real problem here is not only is GT a good defensive team, they are a good defensive team with height: 31st best in effective height in the country. This should allow them to slow Booker somewhat and block the vision of our perimeter passers.

But make no mistake about it, this is a game Clemson should win. The reason: GT's atrocious offense. Far and away the worst unit for any team in the ACC this year, and well below division I average. This problem is further compounded by an uptempo style of play: a really bad offense combined with the 24th fastest playing style in division I means a lot of opportunities for the opposing team to score after an empty possession. The two "strengths" in the barren, bomb-scarred landscape representing the GT offense according to Kenpom.com are the ability to avoid blocks (probably from the height underneath) and the a reasonably good offensive rebounding percentage. We've talked before about how crappy shooting teams get more opportunities for offensive rebounds, which probably means even this number is inflated for GT.

I expect a defensive slough with Clemson hopefully pulling away before the five minute mark in the second half. If GT gets a few rolls and sinks some circus three point shots, though, Clemson might have to win the game in the final possessions. One thing to keep in mind before reaching for the antacid, though, is a six-seven point lead in a game with scoring in the low-sixties means a lot more than it does in a game headed to a low-eighties finish.