Florida State 73, Clemson 66
(Chart from Statsheet. I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
I don't have much to add to ClemBen's impassioned take below...just to say that today dashed any realistic hopes of a deep postseason run. I still think 10 wins gives us a shot at an ACC bye, but we lose the tiebreaker to FSU, and, moreover, beating Wake Forest in Winston-Salem is probably about twice as hard as beating FSU in Tallahassee. Even with the bye, though, chances are we meet up with FSU or WF at some point, and we've shown we can't beat these guys.
The only stat you have to look at for this game in three point attempts: 28. Right away, we know they weren't getting the ball inside, which was really the key to the game. Going 12/28 is a testament to the good shooters we have right now, 43% shooting from behind the arc when the inside game is non-existent means guys are knocking them down even with lots of pressure.
On defense, I said in the preview to watch FSU's 3 point shooting. They went 7/17, making them the fourth out of five average to middling 3-point shooting teams to hang a plus 40% on our defense. The only team that failed was Maryland, and it wasn't for lack of trying; they had many, many wide open threes that missed the mark. The book has gotten out on our defense, its time for the Clemson staff to make an adjustment...even if it means being a little more conservative with the press.
I love how with 20 seconds left the FSU lead goes from 60% sure to 10% sure in the span of 30 seconds...thats insane. We had a legit chance to send it to overtime if we get a score but that is the exact moment that Rivers throws the ball over his head into the stands...thats senior leadership alright!
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