Virginia 85, Clemson 81 OT
(Chart from Statsheet. I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
I had to wait a while before I could write this, force myself to calm down a bit from all the rage. I don't have any deep insights into this game, it was obviously a lackluster effort all around, particularly on defense. Clemson can't allow a poor shooting team like Virginia to shoot 54% from the floor. Normally I wouldn't put too much stock into a sub-30% 3-shooting team going 7-15, that's within the realm of believable statistical fluctuation, but I do think it points to a disturbing trend: Clemson's defensive efficiency has been incrementally dropping since ACC play began. Nothing drastic, but they've gone from around 10th in the nation to about 30th. As far as I can tell this can almost exclusively be attributed to giving up more threes. I haven't been watching closely enough to determine why this is happening, but I often wonder why teams don't pull up more often after breaking the press to shoot the open three--a pretty high percentage shot for a good shooter. Something to watch for in the coming games...
Of course this doesn't amount to an excuse for losing this game. Unfortunately, good teams have an all around poor outings and sometimes a bad team will plays its best game of the season at the same time. The extension of this is that over the course of a thirty game season even a top five team will inexplicably lose a game (Note: I do not think we are not a top five or ten team, I agree with ClemBen here--borderline top fifteen right now). Its not very satisfying reasoning, but odds were at the beginning of ACC play Clemson was gonna lose one or two they weren't supposed to lose.
The problem for Clemson is now the margin for error is essentially zero. We need to finish 10-6 to have a good chance at locking up a first round ACC bye, and with road games at FSU and Wake Forest (two bad matchups for Clemson) looming, we really have to win the other four games. The good news is we will be solid favorites in the other four games, the bad news is we will have short rest from here on out. The reality is we may need to steal one from FSU or WF to get to 10-6.
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