NC State Preview

Clemson vs. NC State, 01/16, 12pm, RBC Center

I’ve returned to earth after last Wednesday’s thrashing of the Tarheels. Great stuff, and worthy of extended celebration. Tigers get a chance to finally win a game after beating a ranked opponent in a game we really should win despite being on the road. NC State has earned the label of “hot and cold” team this year, supported by quality wins over Marquette and Florida State (last Tuesday) and head-scratching losses to a crummy Arizona team, Northwestern, and Virginia; the last two being home games and not particularly close. The Florida State game may seem like the strangest--if you’re a reader here you know that we think FSU has a chance to sweep Clemson in two games this season. So what happened? First, let’s get a general team profile of the Wolfpack.

All in all, I think the 2010 NC State team is fairly similar to the 2008 team, with their youth leaving them a little room to get better as the season goes on. Based primarily on this potential, I debated whether or not to include them in the bottom rung of the conference when sizing up the ACC. As in years past, they are a better offensive than defensive team (if only slightly this year). On offense, they lack any true “strength”, although they’ve managed to shoot the ball at around a league average clip--both the two and three-pointer. On the other hand, they turn the ball over. Not as often as UNC (or as often as us, for that matter), but it’s still bad enough to be a serious concern when you face a pressure defense. Javier Gonzalez looks like the weak link, coughing up the ball 27.5% of the time he handles the ball. While their turnover percentage is 'just' middling, like UNC they are dismal at having the ball stolen away. This implies that while they don’t make stupid mistakes like dribbling the ball off their feet, they are vulnerable to good defensive pressure. On defense, their FG% against is their most redeeming feature, although it is well-below league average, besting only Virginia, UNC, Boston College, and Clemson (coincidentally enough, 2 of the 3 teams we have already beaten). Meanwhile, NC State struggles to force turnovers and also has trouble keeping other teams off the offensive glass. We should be able to put up points in the half-court, even though it may involve fighting for second and third chances.

So how did they manage to beat Florida State on the road? To beat FSU right now, you need a tall three point shooter who can see over the defense and knock down threes, and you need to crash the boards. 6’7” freshmen named Scott Wood walked into Tallahassee averaging only about 7.5 points/game and shooting around 32% from three-point land. He left after putting up 31 points on 7-11 shooting from long range while his teammates did a phenomenal job of keeping FSU off the offensive boards, no mean feat when you are dealing with 7’1” Solomon Alabi, 6’9” Chris Singleton, and 6’11” Xavier Gibson.

All of this could spell some trouble for the Tigers, as they like to get on the offensive glass and we don’t defend the three exceptionally well. However, in basketball, one game shouldn’t be considered predictive of future performance. If Clemson can keep Scott Wood from landing on ESPN with another 30 point plus performance, we should be able to keep NC State’s offense more or less in check.

On the other hand, the Tigers can’t afford to be complacent. NC State’s not a particularly good team, we match up fairly well against them, and while it’s never easy to play on the road in the ACC, recently Raleigh doesn’t exactly have a reputation as a difficult place to play. A loss against the Wolfpack, a game that we’re rightfully favored in, would more than erase the benefits accrued in the UNC game. To put it another way, losing a game you are favored has a much greater affect on your expected win tally than a loss in a “toss-up” game. I expect Clemson to struggle considerably in Atlanta next week, but we should be able to handle the Wolfpack today.