NC State vs. Clemson, 03/11, ~9:00pm, Greensboro Coliseum
I agree with DrB at the end of this post, a win tonight should lock us into a seven seed. On the other hand, a loss probably drops us into the 8/9 matchup. As a result, the stakes are actually a bit bigger than they might seem because in most years there is a fairly substantial step down in talent between #1 seeds and #2 seeds. I would rate Kansas and Syracuse as shoe-ins for #1 seeds at this point, and the difference between playing one of those teams and playing some of the potential two seeds like Ohio State, West Virginia, or Purdue would be pretty large. Of course, while this is all fun to contemplate, it depends on getting a favorable matchup in round one and taking care of business against the Wolfpack tomorrow.
NC State struggled to a 5-11 finish in the ACC and 17-14 finish overall. On paper, they're a league average to a little below league average in just about every statistical category. Their most conspicuous weaknesses are probably an inability to force turnovers and an inability to keep opposing teams off the offensive glass. As a result, NC State is no push-over. I know alot of people see the near-collapse at Raleigh earlier this season as a direct result of losing Demontez Stitt in the first half. While losing Stitt certainly didn't help, I think it's ultimately a pretty lazy assessment. It glosses over the fact that we got whipped on the offensive boards all game long (not something that would be affected by losing Stitt) by a team that doesn't play particularly well on the offensive glass. In fairness, we also were unable to force any turnovers, which is probably an area where we missed Stitt more.
What I'm trying to say is that while we don't match up poorly with NC State, we don't particularly match up well against them, either. I think we will need a consistent effort from T. Booker and the rest of the inside players and we will have to get some breaks in the pressure defense if we want to run away with the game. Unfortunately, Sidney Lowe had the cognizance to limit the playing time of the turnover-prone Javier Gonzalez to ten minutes against the Clemson press. Outside of Gonzalez, the Wolfpack actually do a pretty good job handling the basketball.
Hopefully Clemson comes out taking the challenge seriously and doesn't play like last year when they moped around as if they deserved a first round bye. I think this is a game Clemson should win on a neutral court at least 3 out of 4 times, but that depends on whether they actually show up ready to play. GO TIGERS!!!
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