STATE OF CLEMSON BASKETBALL: 2008-2009 ACC season midpoint update

Well, 8 games into the conference schedule and 21 games into the season, we're just starting to accumulate enough data to make some reliable observations about how the team is faring this year. I'm mostly interested in comparing this year to previous years, to try and identify any encouraging or discouraging trends. I am hoping to do this maybe three times a year, at the start of the ACC season, at the midpoint, and then at the end of the postseason. I thought I would start this time by looking at general offense and defense trends since the start of the Purnell era, to give a kind of baseline for future discussions. This post is based on the stats provided at Ken Pomeroy's site, if you haven't headed over there to check it out I really recommend it. I tend to lose several hours of the day when I visit...

Before looking at the offense and defense, the first comment I want to make is that the strength of schedule is shaping up to be weaker this year than the last two years, particularly the non-conference schedule. This might be different from what you've heard elsewhere, but I think people are underestimating the near-complete collapse of the SEC has a major basketball conference. After being up near the top of the rankings for several seasons, the SEC sucked in 2008, ranking last in overall conference efficiency among the major conferences. This year, it’s barely fending off the Mountain West for sixth place. It’s pretty sad when your best teams match up results-wise with the perennial first round 8/9 game-losing BYU cougars. So while in the past a victory over Alabama or USuCk might have been impressive, this year it means very little. But who am I kidding? If the coots are ever threatening to take a division, you know your conference has serious problems. Maybe Purnell will consider diversifying the competition a little in the coming seasons, but really these kinds of years will happen even with the best of intentions.

Now let’s take at offensive and defensive efficiency: stats that are adjusted for opponent strength. This way we don’t need to worry yet about the weaker 2009 schedule.



The first year Purnell arrived our defense was 43rd best in the country, and hasn’t dropped below the top thirty since. Over the same time, the offense has gotten progressively better. I think this confirms the tag always placed on Purnell: defense-first coach. Personally, I think we should apply a different tag to Purnell: extremely intelligent coach. I think he saw that to some degree lack of innate defensive talent can be overcome with raw athleticism, hustle, and good defensive schemes. This is not as nearly as true for offense, where lack of natural talent is more difficult to hide. Being the extremely smart coach, Purnell recognized that a strong defense is easier to build from the ground up than a strong offense, so he brings in athletic guys that can run the floor and listen to the coaches. As the program gets some recognition, he can then bring in athletic guys with more natural talent on the offensive end. Clemben is more of the recruiting guru, but from what I understand we can have high expectations this trend will continue with next year’s crew.

Next stat—one everyone has watched in horror for the past several years: FT percentage.


I think finally this year, after years and years of hearing about how improved we were going to be, we have finally actually improved. There’s still time for a late-season collapse, but it looks like the improvements by Booker, Grant, and to a lesser extent Sykes have more than offset regressions from Stitt and Oglesby. Again, though, I think this emphasizes Purnell’s defense first strategy to building a program, and while I’ve been as frustrated as the next guy, if the percentage rises another 3-4%, next year we’re looking at an average FT shooting team. Never thought I’d say it.

Last stat, just to drive home the point from the last couple of posts: average effective height. Unfortunately, the numbers are only calculated back to 2007.