Surprised?

Alternate title: Long, slow end of the Swinney era, week 4 update

I'm a little confused about the reaction in the Clemson blogosphere. Sure, I was upset after the loss, but after the normal recovery time I can't say I was shocked. I don't really view this as a debacle, at least not on the order of Maryland 2009 when we were beat soundly by a bad, banged up team with no talent that was going through one of Friedgen's inexplicable phases where he doesn't really seem to care much about coaching. No, this was your standard BC team that doesn't feature an NFL-caliber quarterback: sound, fundamental line play highlighted by a stout front 7 on defense and an O-line that can open up holes for the running game. Yeah, they've struggled this year (rotating in potted plants at QB will do that for ya), but they've also improved as the year went along--particularly on defense.

In hindsight, its not surprising Clemson struggled; we rely on the run game to set up whatever pass yards we can scrounge up and BC's defense excels at stopping the run. I'm not sure why everyone was suddenly so confident in the pass game. Sure, Nuke Hopkins is hustling all over the field and generally showing up the entire WR corps, but he's still dropping passes and struggling to get separation (he's bound for good things in this league, but he's still a freshman). By the way, I'm also guilty of buying the "Kyle Parker is going to break out of his rut any game now" line, by now it's clear that Parker's 2009 success was largely the function of the NFL-caliber talent around him (Ford, Spiller, Palmer). He has potential, no doubt, but expecting him to spurn the MLB to save the season Spiller-style was pretty naive in retrospect.

But what of our superior talent, you ask? Its a good question, by all accounts we certainly have the advantage on paper. Here's my reply: remember how we aren't capable of developing talent? As an aside, on some level it must be a good feeling to be a BC fan; you get to watch your players develop into a team that is better than the sum of its parts. They aren't going to win any national championships anytime soon, but hey, you grow to love each and every team with each and every passing game. Not a bad life for a fan. Not a great life, but hey, better than rooting for a team that perpetually underperforms.

After the Miami game, I wrote that we were entering the long, slow end of the Swinney era. Nothing has happened to change my mind. The GT game was a blip, a game against a decent team that we actually matched up well with (our D-line was strong enough to disrupt the option all game long and our O-line was matched up against a small defensive front). We might even beat NCSU (50-50, I'd say) or FSU (bit of a longshot), since our defense should be able to limit the damage from their offenses and we will be able to run the ball at least on occasion. But even wins in these games aren't going to change the fact our talent doesn't develop and we've been consistently outcoached (or coached ourselves into the ground) this season.

I also stand by my previous assessment that Swinney lives to see next year (with fall-guy Napier getting the axe, of course). I just don't sense the anger on the blogs seeping into the mainstream fan's conscious, at least not yet. The real standard for Swinney's departure should probably be this: a currently modest draft class losing commitments and plummeting in value. The football program will then officially be without a single functioning strength. In that case, you can't give Swinney another year to wreck the program for the next five, it's time to cut your losses and move on.