Overall I think we got so royally hosed last year that this schedule is eminently more reasonable. One thing to remember from last season is that we were a horrible road
team (other than playing VTech). The home crowd really made a
difference I think against Auburn, FSU and Wake where if we aren't at
home I don't think we come back. We were not great when playing
Maryland, USC, NC State, and WV away from home.
So I am most interested in how we play on the road this year. How do we
play in a dome against Auburn (is that effectively an away game?)? FSU
seems tough but we did play well the last time at Doak losing on the
most ridiculous FG I have ever personally seen, but the D-line was stout
then too. BC shouldn't be a problem but new coordinators (and losing in
Chestnut before when we shouldn't have) always leaves me more cautiously optimistic than confident. We are at Wake with a 4 day turnaround on a Thurs. which should feel like a home game (and I hope we really make a push to fill that stadium with orange this year especially) but Wake has always been pesky. Not sure what to make of their team this year either.
*On an important side note, the admin has now agreed to Thursday night games?? I hope an intrepid reporter finds out if this is Dabo's doing or not. If that is true he is really becoming able to lobby the admin which I think is an overall good thing. I've never been a huge fan of Thurs night games but the excuse of it putting too much strain on students always sounded a little contrived. I do like the idea of the admin being pushed further to support athletics however.
So Wake will be tough but they have the same schedule as us with a 4 day turnaround, which is very fair. This is one I will expect to win but will be on pins and needles. I still remember needing the heroics of the late, great Gaines Adams to pull out a win on a blocked kick return, so I am not comfortable up there. Then we get Duke on the road which should be a win and is a great team to have to play on the road. However it took an insane comeback to beat an equally pathetic, if not more pathetic Maryland team last year. Then we end the season with three at home.
Our OOC schedule is nice this year with GT and VT at home and Duke on the road. Next year our OOC schedule should get even easier with VT coming off and adding Syracuse for an SEC team (but I am still hoping we get 8 conference games and lose GT as a natural rival just bc I hate the team needing to prep for the triple option every year and PJ is so smug when he wins). If we could do last years schedule then we can certainly do this years. I like that NC State is later in the year, so as to remind us of how we got complacent towards the end of last year. If we get through Auburn and FSU and can take care of home games and lesser opponents on the road then the season could be pretty special...
If only we had an O-line...and hopefully a D-line, we just might be able to run the table...
(and so it begins...)
Showing posts with label Georgia Tech. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Georgia Tech. Show all posts
Tuesday, 28 February 2012
Sunday, 7 March 2010
Wake Forest Preview
Clemson vs. Wake Forest, 03/07, 6:00pm, Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Yesterday's results make this an all-or-nothing event for the Tigers. A win gives us the three seed by merit of a better combined head-to-head record (2-1) in the tiebreaker with Virginia Tech (1-1) and FSU (1-2). A loss drops us all the way to the six seed, as we would be tied alone with the Wake Forest team that just beat us. I don't think anyone can understate the importance of this game. I honestly don't think Clemson has much of a chance at an ACC tournament run given that we match up so poorly this season with the league's best teams, Maryland and Duke. But a couple of wins and a good showing in a third game has the potential to vault us into a six seed in the NCAA tournament--as semi-arbitrary as the ACC tie-breaking system is, don't underestimate the value of the tag "third-best team in the ACC".
About the actual game. As I've mentioned in the last previews, Clemson closes out three straight games against opponents with a strikingly similar general profile: turnover-prone, reasonably-poor shooting, and offensive-glass dominant on offense with a well above-average defense driven by effective FG% against numbers that are the envy of teams across the nation. In fact, Wake ranks #1 in the country in effective FG% against percentage. This is why I generally feel that WF poses the toughest matchup for the Tigers out of the final three teams--unlike FSU they defend the 2- and 3-point shot equally well and they are also better at holding onto the ball relative to both FSU and GT. Despite this, it's fair to see Clemson as the mild favorite given their performance in the last two games, and their additional victory over FSU earlier this season.
Clemson also has other factors working in their favor in this game. On defense, WF does not defend against the offensive rebound very well. They also, unlike FSU or to a lesser extent GT, do not force turnovers. Finally, Wake Forest is considerably worse than either FSU or GT at shooting the ball on offense. I think this game will come down to who does a better job keeping the other team off the offensive glass and who converts more second-chance opportunities around the rim.
I'm hopeful that Wake, mathematically eliminated from the first-round bye and on the tail of a four game losing streak now starting to threaten their NCAA tournament plans, will come out dispirited. Unfortunately, senior night has a way of reinvigorating teams. Clemson will need to absorb the emotional high that Wake runs out, calmly reminding themselves they are the better team. I expect they can then start slowly asserting their will on the Demon Deacons, hopefully aided by the voluntary unraveling of Dino's squad as they see their post-season start slipping away...
GO TIGERS!!
Yesterday's results make this an all-or-nothing event for the Tigers. A win gives us the three seed by merit of a better combined head-to-head record (2-1) in the tiebreaker with Virginia Tech (1-1) and FSU (1-2). A loss drops us all the way to the six seed, as we would be tied alone with the Wake Forest team that just beat us. I don't think anyone can understate the importance of this game. I honestly don't think Clemson has much of a chance at an ACC tournament run given that we match up so poorly this season with the league's best teams, Maryland and Duke. But a couple of wins and a good showing in a third game has the potential to vault us into a six seed in the NCAA tournament--as semi-arbitrary as the ACC tie-breaking system is, don't underestimate the value of the tag "third-best team in the ACC".
About the actual game. As I've mentioned in the last previews, Clemson closes out three straight games against opponents with a strikingly similar general profile: turnover-prone, reasonably-poor shooting, and offensive-glass dominant on offense with a well above-average defense driven by effective FG% against numbers that are the envy of teams across the nation. In fact, Wake ranks #1 in the country in effective FG% against percentage. This is why I generally feel that WF poses the toughest matchup for the Tigers out of the final three teams--unlike FSU they defend the 2- and 3-point shot equally well and they are also better at holding onto the ball relative to both FSU and GT. Despite this, it's fair to see Clemson as the mild favorite given their performance in the last two games, and their additional victory over FSU earlier this season.
Clemson also has other factors working in their favor in this game. On defense, WF does not defend against the offensive rebound very well. They also, unlike FSU or to a lesser extent GT, do not force turnovers. Finally, Wake Forest is considerably worse than either FSU or GT at shooting the ball on offense. I think this game will come down to who does a better job keeping the other team off the offensive glass and who converts more second-chance opportunities around the rim.
I'm hopeful that Wake, mathematically eliminated from the first-round bye and on the tail of a four game losing streak now starting to threaten their NCAA tournament plans, will come out dispirited. Unfortunately, senior night has a way of reinvigorating teams. Clemson will need to absorb the emotional high that Wake runs out, calmly reminding themselves they are the better team. I expect they can then start slowly asserting their will on the Demon Deacons, hopefully aided by the voluntary unraveling of Dino's squad as they see their post-season start slipping away...
GO TIGERS!!
Wednesday, 3 March 2010
Georgia Tech Recap 2
Clemson 91, Georgia Tech 80
Congratulations to Oliver Purnell and his staff for securing a third consecutive NCAA birth. I can't imagine this season went as planned, but through several shrewd coaching adjustments and incremental player improvement we have gotten gradually better, and just in the nick of time. I questioned whether we were really a better offensive team after running off three straight wins at home in February, but decent-to-strong performances against good defenses like Maryland, GT, and yes, even FSU have me convinced that execution (if not necessarily gameplan) has improved at least slightly. Also, give credit to the conditioning of Clemson. We've heard about Clemson's superior conditioning over the years, but I've been largely unconvinced. But last night, despite working on a day's fewer rest and playing a third game in seven days, we actually looked less tired than GT during key stretched in the second half. If this carries over to the ACC Tournament it could serve as a significant advantage.
Now, time to rain a little on everyone's parade. Not to belittle great performances on Senior Night by Trevor Booker and David Potter, but I would be careful to read Clemson's performance as a true indicator of their current ability. While GT is a solid defensive team and anytime you put 91 points on an ACC team its reason to celebrate, GT didn't bring their 'A' defensive game last night. I haven't seen that many good three-point looks since maybe the Presbyterian game. We also didn't look sharp on defense, giving up way too many good looks after penetration that was coming way to easy for GT. To their credit, GT also knocked down tough shots all night long. The first half was a nightmare on the boards for Clemson, but one of the reasons we pulled away in the second half was because we turned the tables, closing down the offensive rebounds for GT while picking up a few of our own. We've got to do a better job against Wake Forest.
I'll wait until tonight's games are over before commenting on our chances for an ACC Tournament first-round bye, but in tonight's games I'll be rooting for NC State and Wake Forest.
Congratulations to Oliver Purnell and his staff for securing a third consecutive NCAA birth. I can't imagine this season went as planned, but through several shrewd coaching adjustments and incremental player improvement we have gotten gradually better, and just in the nick of time. I questioned whether we were really a better offensive team after running off three straight wins at home in February, but decent-to-strong performances against good defenses like Maryland, GT, and yes, even FSU have me convinced that execution (if not necessarily gameplan) has improved at least slightly. Also, give credit to the conditioning of Clemson. We've heard about Clemson's superior conditioning over the years, but I've been largely unconvinced. But last night, despite working on a day's fewer rest and playing a third game in seven days, we actually looked less tired than GT during key stretched in the second half. If this carries over to the ACC Tournament it could serve as a significant advantage.
Now, time to rain a little on everyone's parade. Not to belittle great performances on Senior Night by Trevor Booker and David Potter, but I would be careful to read Clemson's performance as a true indicator of their current ability. While GT is a solid defensive team and anytime you put 91 points on an ACC team its reason to celebrate, GT didn't bring their 'A' defensive game last night. I haven't seen that many good three-point looks since maybe the Presbyterian game. We also didn't look sharp on defense, giving up way too many good looks after penetration that was coming way to easy for GT. To their credit, GT also knocked down tough shots all night long. The first half was a nightmare on the boards for Clemson, but one of the reasons we pulled away in the second half was because we turned the tables, closing down the offensive rebounds for GT while picking up a few of our own. We've got to do a better job against Wake Forest.
I'll wait until tonight's games are over before commenting on our chances for an ACC Tournament first-round bye, but in tonight's games I'll be rooting for NC State and Wake Forest.
Tuesday, 2 March 2010
Georgia Tech Preview 2
Georgia Tech vs. Clemson, 03/02, 8:00pm, Littlejohn
I feel like I could just re-write the FSU preview, replacing FSU's name with Tech and that would leave everyone with a pretty good idea of what to expect in the game. In fact, all of Clemson's final three teams fit the same general profile: tall teams that play excellent defense, primarily driven by holding the opposing team to a low effective FG%. None of the teams feature a world-beating offense; their offense is held up in part by their ability to snatch up offensive rebounds and is dragged down by an abysmal turnover rate.
If we look a little more closely at GT vs. FSU, Tech is a slightly better offensive team and slightly worse defensive team. GT is considerably better at defending the three but not quite as good as the incomparable FSU defense against the two. On offense, they shoot the ball better primarily because of their three-point shooting, which relies quite a bit on freshman Brian Oliver, shooting around 41%.
All in all, I like this matchup slightly better than the FSU matchup for the Tigers. We have a better chance to score inside with Booker (our strength on offense) and we should still force plenty of turnovers on defense. Given that we nearly pulled off the upset in Atlanta earlier in the season and that we have played well against teams with this profile, on paper this is a game that Clemson should be considered moderate favorites.
But I'm too busy worrying about external factors to take any comfort. Clemson is playing their third game in seven days and second game in three days. The game on Sunday was an absolute bruiser in which they kept their pressure defense on for the entire 40 minutes. In order to beat GT, they'll need a comparable effort on defense, pushing the fullcourt pressure all night long to force as many turnovers as possible. I'm not sure they'll have the legs for it. On top of that, GT is (perhaps unfairly) playing for their post-season lives and maybe for their coach's job. (As an aside, I'm surprised there hasn't been more Hewitt/hotseat talk. I thought he was given another season because of the recruiting class he was bringing in. But outside of the blogs, I haven't seen much on the subject from traditional media. Maybe everyone is just tired of talking about it year after year.) GT is only coming off three days' rest, but it was their first game in a week. They will be fresher and they will be ready to play.
I think Clemson really needs to avoid a slog this time, they won't have the fortitude to pull the game out at the end like they did in Tallahassee. They have to find offense in the early going, build something of a lead, and hope that they can hold off GT as their defense falters along with their legs in the last ten minutes. GO TIGERS!!!
I feel like I could just re-write the FSU preview, replacing FSU's name with Tech and that would leave everyone with a pretty good idea of what to expect in the game. In fact, all of Clemson's final three teams fit the same general profile: tall teams that play excellent defense, primarily driven by holding the opposing team to a low effective FG%. None of the teams feature a world-beating offense; their offense is held up in part by their ability to snatch up offensive rebounds and is dragged down by an abysmal turnover rate.
If we look a little more closely at GT vs. FSU, Tech is a slightly better offensive team and slightly worse defensive team. GT is considerably better at defending the three but not quite as good as the incomparable FSU defense against the two. On offense, they shoot the ball better primarily because of their three-point shooting, which relies quite a bit on freshman Brian Oliver, shooting around 41%.
All in all, I like this matchup slightly better than the FSU matchup for the Tigers. We have a better chance to score inside with Booker (our strength on offense) and we should still force plenty of turnovers on defense. Given that we nearly pulled off the upset in Atlanta earlier in the season and that we have played well against teams with this profile, on paper this is a game that Clemson should be considered moderate favorites.
But I'm too busy worrying about external factors to take any comfort. Clemson is playing their third game in seven days and second game in three days. The game on Sunday was an absolute bruiser in which they kept their pressure defense on for the entire 40 minutes. In order to beat GT, they'll need a comparable effort on defense, pushing the fullcourt pressure all night long to force as many turnovers as possible. I'm not sure they'll have the legs for it. On top of that, GT is (perhaps unfairly) playing for their post-season lives and maybe for their coach's job. (As an aside, I'm surprised there hasn't been more Hewitt/hotseat talk. I thought he was given another season because of the recruiting class he was bringing in. But outside of the blogs, I haven't seen much on the subject from traditional media. Maybe everyone is just tired of talking about it year after year.) GT is only coming off three days' rest, but it was their first game in a week. They will be fresher and they will be ready to play.
I think Clemson really needs to avoid a slog this time, they won't have the fortitude to pull the game out at the end like they did in Tallahassee. They have to find offense in the early going, build something of a lead, and hope that they can hold off GT as their defense falters along with their legs in the last ten minutes. GO TIGERS!!!
Monday, 1 March 2010
FSU Recap 2
Clemson 53, Florida St. 50
I said at the end of the preview that if we didn't make our three-point shots, couldn't force turnovers at a reasonable clip, and couldn't get offensive rebounds we'd be in for a slog. If anyone was confused about the definition of a "slog", that was not only a prototypical slog, it was something close to the paragon of a slog. Check out the rate of scoring (or lack thereof) in the chart:
And we managed to win. I'm still not sure how. It's strange, but I didn't think the defense was anything special. They were solid, but not spectacular. A lot of times FSU looked as lost running their halfcourt offense as we did, they missed makeable shots, and a lot of their turnovers were of the unforced variety. No, I think the game was somehow won on the offensive side of the ball. I don't often applaud individual efforts, mainly 'cause the college game ain't the same as the NBA game, but tonight I'll give big helpings of credit to Trevor Booker for finding ways to get close to the basket and to Andre Young for finding ways to get open at key points in the game (and draining a halfcourt jumper). It's particularly impressive because FSU stuck to more or less the same strategy as game 1, collapsing on Trevor Booker. In this game they seemed to be rolling over a man from the basket side to double team instead of collapsing in on Booker from the three-point line. This lessened the number of good looks we got around the perimeter. Normally Booker is still good at finding the open man in those situations, but against FSU's inside height he fired quite a few errant passes, particularly in the early going. But he settled down and ended played one of the best offensive games of his career against one of the better defenses in the country.
This win also opens the door to a first-round ACC bye, something no one in their right mind was talking about a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, and I hate to be the bearer of bad news here ClemBen, Clemson basically still needs to win both of their remaining games or hope for a bunch of other things to happen if they split their final two games. FSU has the upper hand right now with the easiest schedule by far of the five teams vying for the last two spots. If they were to win out, they would finish 10-6 and leave four teams vying for one slot.
The way I see it now, barring any strange upsets (like VT losing at home to NC State or something), if we win both of the final two games we grab the three seed (if VT loses to GT) or the four seed (if VT beats GT). If we finish 9-7, I only see two longshot scenarios. If we beat GT instead of WF, we also need FSU to beat WF and lose to Miami and GT to beat VT. That would give us the four seed. If we beat WF instead of GT, we need WF to beat FSU, FSU to beat Miami, and VT to beat GT. That would also give us the four seed.
There's probably a few other wild scenarios in there, but those are the most realistic I'm seeing right now. Simply put, Clemson still needs to win out. Lots of strange things could still happen, but the losses to VT and GT coupled with FSU's likely 10-6 finish put us in a relatively weak position because our two victories over FSU don't mean anything in any tie-breakers if they finish above us.
Lastly, it's time to update the list from the beginning of yesterday's post:
Number of games Clemson has led by 10 or more points and lost this season: 2 (Illinois, Maryland)
Number of games Clemson has trailed by 10 or more points and won this season: 2 (Butler, FSU)
I don't know if a team that can rally as often as "collapse" can really be labeled as a team prone to the collapse, but just so everyone is on the same page with the numbers...
GO TIGERS!!
I said at the end of the preview that if we didn't make our three-point shots, couldn't force turnovers at a reasonable clip, and couldn't get offensive rebounds we'd be in for a slog. If anyone was confused about the definition of a "slog", that was not only a prototypical slog, it was something close to the paragon of a slog. Check out the rate of scoring (or lack thereof) in the chart:
And we managed to win. I'm still not sure how. It's strange, but I didn't think the defense was anything special. They were solid, but not spectacular. A lot of times FSU looked as lost running their halfcourt offense as we did, they missed makeable shots, and a lot of their turnovers were of the unforced variety. No, I think the game was somehow won on the offensive side of the ball. I don't often applaud individual efforts, mainly 'cause the college game ain't the same as the NBA game, but tonight I'll give big helpings of credit to Trevor Booker for finding ways to get close to the basket and to Andre Young for finding ways to get open at key points in the game (and draining a halfcourt jumper). It's particularly impressive because FSU stuck to more or less the same strategy as game 1, collapsing on Trevor Booker. In this game they seemed to be rolling over a man from the basket side to double team instead of collapsing in on Booker from the three-point line. This lessened the number of good looks we got around the perimeter. Normally Booker is still good at finding the open man in those situations, but against FSU's inside height he fired quite a few errant passes, particularly in the early going. But he settled down and ended played one of the best offensive games of his career against one of the better defenses in the country.
This win also opens the door to a first-round ACC bye, something no one in their right mind was talking about a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, and I hate to be the bearer of bad news here ClemBen, Clemson basically still needs to win both of their remaining games or hope for a bunch of other things to happen if they split their final two games. FSU has the upper hand right now with the easiest schedule by far of the five teams vying for the last two spots. If they were to win out, they would finish 10-6 and leave four teams vying for one slot.
The way I see it now, barring any strange upsets (like VT losing at home to NC State or something), if we win both of the final two games we grab the three seed (if VT loses to GT) or the four seed (if VT beats GT). If we finish 9-7, I only see two longshot scenarios. If we beat GT instead of WF, we also need FSU to beat WF and lose to Miami and GT to beat VT. That would give us the four seed. If we beat WF instead of GT, we need WF to beat FSU, FSU to beat Miami, and VT to beat GT. That would also give us the four seed.
There's probably a few other wild scenarios in there, but those are the most realistic I'm seeing right now. Simply put, Clemson still needs to win out. Lots of strange things could still happen, but the losses to VT and GT coupled with FSU's likely 10-6 finish put us in a relatively weak position because our two victories over FSU don't mean anything in any tie-breakers if they finish above us.
Lastly, it's time to update the list from the beginning of yesterday's post:
Number of games Clemson has led by 10 or more points and lost this season: 2 (Illinois, Maryland)
Number of games Clemson has trailed by 10 or more points and won this season: 2 (Butler, FSU)
I don't know if a team that can rally as often as "collapse" can really be labeled as a team prone to the collapse, but just so everyone is on the same page with the numbers...
GO TIGERS!!
Wednesday, 20 January 2010
Georgia Tech Recap
Georgia Tech 66, Clemson 64
Devastatingly close loss. Really had an opportunity to add a win to ledger that wasn't expected. There's another way to look at this loss though: we went toe-to-toe with one of the better teams in the league on the road; a team that poses not insignificant matchup problems for us on offense. Without Demontez Stitt at 100% (although, to be fair, it looked like he was playing around 90-95% most of the time). Let's take a quick look at the chart:
I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
Ouch. Had the 64-62 lead with 1:25 to go. I thought we had a good game plan coming in. For the most part, we kept GT off-balance by mixing up the pressure and on offense we opened them up and got reasonably good looks by having Stitt drive the lane (Young added a couple of nice drives as well) and being able to feed the ball into the Booker brothers (Devin looked great in limited action, banging around inside against the tall GT defense and drawing fouls). We also were drawing fouls left and right inside, putting their big men into foul trouble which helped opened up the inside a little more. I realize we only put 64 points on the board, but that was with a handful of shots that should have fallen and even worse performance at the FT line than usual.
My only complaint would be the offensive plays in the last 3 possessions or so, starting with the wild drive by Tanner Smith (3-11 from the field, that's the disappearing Smith we all know from last ACC season!). I actually quite liked Stitt's decision to penetrate with the lane wide open on the last real possession; he just picked a bad time for another of his inexplicable turnovers (which, admittedly, seem to have occurred less frequently in the past few games). My only real complaint is that we didn't at least try to get the ball inside to Booker in one of the final possessions. He'd been having a lot of success drawing fouls and it felt like we had the GT big men on their heels.
Lastly, can't talk about this game without mentioning the ridiculous call at the end. I don't care if Booker made any kind of contact on Peacock's "drive", you don't call that with 3.2 seconds remaining in a game. As an official, you don't risk making a touch foul call that gift-wraps the game for one team after an evenly played first forty minutes. Officiating in basketball is not, nor should be, context-independent. Let them decide the game in an overtime period, which, incidentally, I think would have likely favored the Tigers because of GT's foul situation.
All in all, I come away from this game feeling oddly optimistic we can end up at 10-6 in the conference instead of 9-7. We played a tall team with well-above average defense on the road to a draw. Trevor Booker held his own and didn't disappear, as was common against teams with a tall inside presence last year. We were able to feed the post on occasion. We managed relatively open looks from behind the arc, and shot the ball pretty well. It gives me hope that we have more than a fighting chance in the FSU and WF games later in the season.
Devastatingly close loss. Really had an opportunity to add a win to ledger that wasn't expected. There's another way to look at this loss though: we went toe-to-toe with one of the better teams in the league on the road; a team that poses not insignificant matchup problems for us on offense. Without Demontez Stitt at 100% (although, to be fair, it looked like he was playing around 90-95% most of the time). Let's take a quick look at the chart:
I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
Ouch. Had the 64-62 lead with 1:25 to go. I thought we had a good game plan coming in. For the most part, we kept GT off-balance by mixing up the pressure and on offense we opened them up and got reasonably good looks by having Stitt drive the lane (Young added a couple of nice drives as well) and being able to feed the ball into the Booker brothers (Devin looked great in limited action, banging around inside against the tall GT defense and drawing fouls). We also were drawing fouls left and right inside, putting their big men into foul trouble which helped opened up the inside a little more. I realize we only put 64 points on the board, but that was with a handful of shots that should have fallen and even worse performance at the FT line than usual.
My only complaint would be the offensive plays in the last 3 possessions or so, starting with the wild drive by Tanner Smith (3-11 from the field, that's the disappearing Smith we all know from last ACC season!). I actually quite liked Stitt's decision to penetrate with the lane wide open on the last real possession; he just picked a bad time for another of his inexplicable turnovers (which, admittedly, seem to have occurred less frequently in the past few games). My only real complaint is that we didn't at least try to get the ball inside to Booker in one of the final possessions. He'd been having a lot of success drawing fouls and it felt like we had the GT big men on their heels.
Lastly, can't talk about this game without mentioning the ridiculous call at the end. I don't care if Booker made any kind of contact on Peacock's "drive", you don't call that with 3.2 seconds remaining in a game. As an official, you don't risk making a touch foul call that gift-wraps the game for one team after an evenly played first forty minutes. Officiating in basketball is not, nor should be, context-independent. Let them decide the game in an overtime period, which, incidentally, I think would have likely favored the Tigers because of GT's foul situation.
All in all, I come away from this game feeling oddly optimistic we can end up at 10-6 in the conference instead of 9-7. We played a tall team with well-above average defense on the road to a draw. Trevor Booker held his own and didn't disappear, as was common against teams with a tall inside presence last year. We were able to feed the post on occasion. We managed relatively open looks from behind the arc, and shot the ball pretty well. It gives me hope that we have more than a fighting chance in the FSU and WF games later in the season.
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
Tech Crap
Well that was a rubbish end. I thought the refs were calling a bunch of make-up calls, trying to make things 'even' like the hold on Potter and then the Booker call at the end. Lame way for it to end, but we had our chances. Stitt looked hurt on the last four or five possessions so not sure why he was the one driving but they had a couple good looks at the basket in the end and didn't convert. I think we were lucky to be in the game though. Favors and Lawal are just beasts. Coach Paul should definitely be canned if he can't win with them. Booker had a good game and was finally matched athletically, still thought he did a good job. Too many turnovers down the stretch and poor officiating. How do they call that foul with three seconds to go? Thought that this game would ease the anger about losing Steele, guess the universe thought otherwise.
A very disappointing loss though that puts us back into the middle of the pack in the ACC. We really need to beat Duke...
Just wanted to add for all of you feeling down like me...Eric Mack just decommitted from USuCk in favor of Auburn or Florida. Since he was probably their best committed player and and O-Lineman it is a pretty big loss. If Lattimore chooses Auburn they will have let three of the top players in the state, including Fulton who committed to Alabama, slip through their fingers....err wings? The only thing about losing Spurrier that scares me is that they could potentially hire someone good with all that SEC money they're getting now--scary thought...
A very disappointing loss though that puts us back into the middle of the pack in the ACC. We really need to beat Duke...
Just wanted to add for all of you feeling down like me...Eric Mack just decommitted from USuCk in favor of Auburn or Florida. Since he was probably their best committed player and and O-Lineman it is a pretty big loss. If Lattimore chooses Auburn they will have let three of the top players in the state, including Fulton who committed to Alabama, slip through their fingers....err wings? The only thing about losing Spurrier that scares me is that they could potentially hire someone good with all that SEC money they're getting now--scary thought...
Georgia Tech Preview
Clemson vs. Georgia Tech, 1/19, 7:00pm, Alexander Memorial Coliseum
Before I say anything, Rest in Peace Gaines Adams. I'm not good at these kinds of things, so I'll send you to someone who is (DrB) and add my deepest condolences. Also, if you haven't already, consider heading over and signing the sympathy card at Tigernet.
Since the game will be played one way or another, time to talk about it. The loss of Stitt makes a already formidable task quite a bit harder. Stitt has a mid-foot sprain and is hoping to be ready for Saturday's tilt with the Blue Devils. I'm a bit skeptical with websites that say full recovery requires "a few weeks." And really, a not fully-recovered foot could result in the same post-injury Stitt we saw last year, the one without the explosive first step. The injury is particularly bad timing because this is by far the strongest defense we've played since the Duke game and we could use a slashing Stitt to penetrate against the GT zone. Normally, this would be a great opportunity for Young to show his game is otherwise equal to to Stitt. Unfortunately, it looks like Young's not feeling well, either.
GT's defense specializes in shutting down their opponent's FG percentage, holding teams under 30% from behind the arc and around 41% from inside the arc. This is where Stitt would be pretty invaluable, we need someone who is able to break down the defense and create space. Its a little hard to gauge how our halfcourt offense will perform, most teams haven't been willing to go inside against GT this season with the shot-blocking presence of 6'10" freshman Derrick Favors and 6'9" sophomore Gani Lawal, but I guarantee Clemson will be looking to T. Booker to shoulder the load tomorrow. I think the thing to look for early in the game is whether Clemson is able to feed the post or if Booker is able to score in some other way--that's probably how FSU pulled off their victory earlier in the season. If Booker isn't seeing success, we don't have a lot of weapons to turn to and GT will be sticking right to the arc to keep Potter or Young from getting open shots.
There is some hope, though. It's not that GT has been playing up-and-down so much this season, the only inexplicable loss was to Georgia and they've played well against some other good teams only to come up a little short: FSU, Dayton, and the rapidly improving Virginia Cavaliers. No, the Achilles heel of the GT team right now is their turnover problems on offense, which feeds right into our primary strength this year. They are actually about as bad UNC, with sophomore Iman Shumpert leading the way downhill. Unfortunately this could be offset somewhat by GT's ability to crash the offensive boards, ranking 15th in the country. Clemson has predictably begun to struggle with defending the offensive glass as ACC play has begun, falling to 170th in the country.
This sets up an interesting matchup, we have a defense that we profile poorly against but an offense we profile decently well against. If we can force some turnovers with the pressure and T. Booker can get some baskets to fall, we could very easily keep up with the Yellow Jackets and have a shot to win the game in the final five minutes. But if we fail to get the turnovers machine rolling along, we could be in for a long night. Already down a starter, Purnell might have to consider folding up the tent relatively early in this game to avoid burning players out in anticipation of the Duke game on Saturday. If Stitt is really able to return, we might have a slightly better chance against Duke then playing at GT without Stitt.
Before I say anything, Rest in Peace Gaines Adams. I'm not good at these kinds of things, so I'll send you to someone who is (DrB) and add my deepest condolences. Also, if you haven't already, consider heading over and signing the sympathy card at Tigernet.
Since the game will be played one way or another, time to talk about it. The loss of Stitt makes a already formidable task quite a bit harder. Stitt has a mid-foot sprain and is hoping to be ready for Saturday's tilt with the Blue Devils. I'm a bit skeptical with websites that say full recovery requires "a few weeks." And really, a not fully-recovered foot could result in the same post-injury Stitt we saw last year, the one without the explosive first step. The injury is particularly bad timing because this is by far the strongest defense we've played since the Duke game and we could use a slashing Stitt to penetrate against the GT zone. Normally, this would be a great opportunity for Young to show his game is otherwise equal to to Stitt. Unfortunately, it looks like Young's not feeling well, either.
GT's defense specializes in shutting down their opponent's FG percentage, holding teams under 30% from behind the arc and around 41% from inside the arc. This is where Stitt would be pretty invaluable, we need someone who is able to break down the defense and create space. Its a little hard to gauge how our halfcourt offense will perform, most teams haven't been willing to go inside against GT this season with the shot-blocking presence of 6'10" freshman Derrick Favors and 6'9" sophomore Gani Lawal, but I guarantee Clemson will be looking to T. Booker to shoulder the load tomorrow. I think the thing to look for early in the game is whether Clemson is able to feed the post or if Booker is able to score in some other way--that's probably how FSU pulled off their victory earlier in the season. If Booker isn't seeing success, we don't have a lot of weapons to turn to and GT will be sticking right to the arc to keep Potter or Young from getting open shots.
There is some hope, though. It's not that GT has been playing up-and-down so much this season, the only inexplicable loss was to Georgia and they've played well against some other good teams only to come up a little short: FSU, Dayton, and the rapidly improving Virginia Cavaliers. No, the Achilles heel of the GT team right now is their turnover problems on offense, which feeds right into our primary strength this year. They are actually about as bad UNC, with sophomore Iman Shumpert leading the way downhill. Unfortunately this could be offset somewhat by GT's ability to crash the offensive boards, ranking 15th in the country. Clemson has predictably begun to struggle with defending the offensive glass as ACC play has begun, falling to 170th in the country.
This sets up an interesting matchup, we have a defense that we profile poorly against but an offense we profile decently well against. If we can force some turnovers with the pressure and T. Booker can get some baskets to fall, we could very easily keep up with the Yellow Jackets and have a shot to win the game in the final five minutes. But if we fail to get the turnovers machine rolling along, we could be in for a long night. Already down a starter, Purnell might have to consider folding up the tent relatively early in this game to avoid burning players out in anticipation of the Duke game on Saturday. If Stitt is really able to return, we might have a slightly better chance against Duke then playing at GT without Stitt.
Wednesday, 13 January 2010
What in Tar Nation? Clemson Spanks UNC
UPDATED BELOW, Tigermax
After Duke everyone was going to meltdown but thats because lots of football fans dont understand how to be basketball fans necessarily. Basketball season isnt about your record so much as peaking at the right time. I mean sure you want to win the conference regular season champs and have a good seed in the tourney but its about getting your team playing at the optimum level late in the season. Its also very much about match-ups, with Duke last year we matched up well against their suspect guard play--this year we dont match up well at all. However, we do match up well against UNC and made them look silly committing around 26 turnovers. TBooker at the point of the press really helps put on the pressure. It also helps him get into his offensive mindset with a couple easy flushes that come from that position.
We looked a lot better in a lot of aspects of the game but I wanted to just highlight a couple right now. FT shooting!!! We were 18-20 from the line. Hallelujah! I'll take 90% from the line any night. Stitt scored 20 points on 8-14 attempts. We need him to play well and drive the offense. He is the only player on the team with a legit first step who can drive and if he can cut down on some of the turnovers then he will be exciting.
I dont like Potter much at all and his shot selection is mind-bottling but he had 5 steals. We need him to be a legit three point shooter. I liked Noel Johnson sticking those two threes early, really set the tone but we went cold thereafter. We missed 11 threes in the second half--dont think we made one. Smith missed some open looks but had a solid game otherwise. The three point shooting has to get better if we are going to challenge in the ACC. And I do mean challenge because Duke just got beat by a manic GTech team. We beat UNC and FSU is up and down as well. Anyone can win this, Duke should be favored but I think we can beat them at home with the Freshman not looking completely shell shocked.
This was a good learning game, wish we could still get the younglings more time in the games, but a victory to relish. Its been six years since we beat these Tar Heels and I think we could have broken the curse had we played in the Dean Dome. I am looking forward to the Duke rematch. Going away to NC State, playing a lot better than I expected, and the always dangerous GTech team are two tough challenges as well. The ACC will be a dog fight but since I hate that metaphor I'll leave you to discuss what that actually means...
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Tigermax adds: Not quite as satisfying as the Duke thrashing last year, but pretty darn close. This was a case of a team with a glaring weakness (UNC's turnover problem) running smack into a team perfectly tailored to take advantage of that weakness (Clemson's pressure defense). As Clemben pointed out above, Duke really had the same problem coming into their game last year.
At the same time, I would caution against viewing this as some watershed moment for Clemson basketball. They played very well against a team they match up well against. Not to underplay the victory, it's good for all sorts of reasons (NCAA tournament resume, ACC standings, ACC tournament seeding, improved FT shooting, etc.) Also, if you put stock in this sort of thing, you can certainly argue that Clemson displayed intangibles last night that haven't been present recently. But it shouldn't really change your opinion about the basic skill level of the team. We still have fundamental flaws that can be exploited by the right team. I'll be withholding any revisions in overall team skill until we play the same way against a tall team that forces turnovers and plays outstanding defense; the general profile of teams that have given us fits in the last couple of years.
After Duke everyone was going to meltdown but thats because lots of football fans dont understand how to be basketball fans necessarily. Basketball season isnt about your record so much as peaking at the right time. I mean sure you want to win the conference regular season champs and have a good seed in the tourney but its about getting your team playing at the optimum level late in the season. Its also very much about match-ups, with Duke last year we matched up well against their suspect guard play--this year we dont match up well at all. However, we do match up well against UNC and made them look silly committing around 26 turnovers. TBooker at the point of the press really helps put on the pressure. It also helps him get into his offensive mindset with a couple easy flushes that come from that position.
We looked a lot better in a lot of aspects of the game but I wanted to just highlight a couple right now. FT shooting!!! We were 18-20 from the line. Hallelujah! I'll take 90% from the line any night. Stitt scored 20 points on 8-14 attempts. We need him to play well and drive the offense. He is the only player on the team with a legit first step who can drive and if he can cut down on some of the turnovers then he will be exciting.
I dont like Potter much at all and his shot selection is mind-bottling but he had 5 steals. We need him to be a legit three point shooter. I liked Noel Johnson sticking those two threes early, really set the tone but we went cold thereafter. We missed 11 threes in the second half--dont think we made one. Smith missed some open looks but had a solid game otherwise. The three point shooting has to get better if we are going to challenge in the ACC. And I do mean challenge because Duke just got beat by a manic GTech team. We beat UNC and FSU is up and down as well. Anyone can win this, Duke should be favored but I think we can beat them at home with the Freshman not looking completely shell shocked.
This was a good learning game, wish we could still get the younglings more time in the games, but a victory to relish. Its been six years since we beat these Tar Heels and I think we could have broken the curse had we played in the Dean Dome. I am looking forward to the Duke rematch. Going away to NC State, playing a lot better than I expected, and the always dangerous GTech team are two tough challenges as well. The ACC will be a dog fight but since I hate that metaphor I'll leave you to discuss what that actually means...
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Tigermax adds: Not quite as satisfying as the Duke thrashing last year, but pretty darn close. This was a case of a team with a glaring weakness (UNC's turnover problem) running smack into a team perfectly tailored to take advantage of that weakness (Clemson's pressure defense). As Clemben pointed out above, Duke really had the same problem coming into their game last year.
At the same time, I would caution against viewing this as some watershed moment for Clemson basketball. They played very well against a team they match up well against. Not to underplay the victory, it's good for all sorts of reasons (NCAA tournament resume, ACC standings, ACC tournament seeding, improved FT shooting, etc.) Also, if you put stock in this sort of thing, you can certainly argue that Clemson displayed intangibles last night that haven't been present recently. But it shouldn't really change your opinion about the basic skill level of the team. We still have fundamental flaws that can be exploited by the right team. I'll be withholding any revisions in overall team skill until we play the same way against a tall team that forces turnovers and plays outstanding defense; the general profile of teams that have given us fits in the last couple of years.
Friday, 4 December 2009
ACC Championship Game
Clemson vs. Georgia Tech, 12/5, 8:00pm, Raymond James Stadium
Tigermax: If you would of told me at the beginning of the year that we would make it to the Championship game, I would have been overjoyed to the point of not caring much about the result of the game. There were just to many questions surrounding the team before the start of the season to realistically be that optimistic about our chances. But now that we've made it...I really want to win. 19 years has been too long for a team with the annual talent and dedicated fanbase of Clemson's. Also, in the event of a loss, for several reasons this isn't a situation where we can step back and say "well, there's always next year."
1) We've got a lot of talent graduating at key skill positions (RB, WR, TE, etc.). We could even lose Kyle Parker to the baseball draft (although personally I think its unlikely).
2) Despite marginal improvement this season, we still have the seemingly perpetual problems at LB and O-line, as well as an emerging problem in the WR corps.
3) Unfortunately, the coaches overseeing these positions lack experience or have spotty track records in coaxing improvement.
4) This is shaping up to be the second consecutive "down" recruiting year. Not bad years, necessarily, but its not like we have loads of game-ready talent knocking down the door right now.
5) The rotation of our schedule works against us next year. As long as we continue to have Wake, BC, and FSU as road games every other year, our odds of winning the division take a substantial hit in even years (while being significantly improved in odd years).
So its a definitely a stretch to think we can contend next season. Swinney and company may well be envisioning a two-year plan for contending in 2011, but we'll need to see emergence of some players in the interim to obtain the "serious contender" label. So I guess I'm saying that the talent on this year's squad is almost certain to be superior to next year--I just never thought we'd put it together enough to make a run at the championship.
So what about Georgia Tech? I definitely think we are the underdog; I have next to no confidence in our ability to stop Paul Johnson's ground attack. Our best shot for winning is to match GT blow for blow with our offense and hope to force a turnover or two. We can do this against Tech's defense. The problem is our margin for error turnover-wise is non-existent. Put the ball on the ground even once on Saturday and we could be in a hole too big to climb out of.
Clemben: So its taken me a week to get over the whole losing to your eternal rival thing. So our main problems--blown Oline and LB assignments. I also think our secondary has seen its performance fade towards the end of the season. I thought for the first time all season coach Steele made some bad calls and couldnt make any key adjustments. So what I am hoping for is an early Christmas present in the form of a slowed Josh Nesbitt. He sustained an ankle injury against Georgia. A guy can dream...
We can beat GT but I think they are better than us right now. I think we were the better talent at the beginning of the season but spotted them too many points. Let me rephrase that--the coaches spotted them too many points that game. Pretty much on offense the game revolves around Parker settling and keeping his mechanics, which means Landon Walker needs to have the game of his life against the #8 rated prospect on Mel Kiper Jr.'s bogus big draft board. Morgan must be double teamed. Its tough though bc Palmer is our best WR.
Speaking of Palmer, I want more of those TE screens and misdirection plays we saw earlier in the turn around--no third and bubbles!!! We arent getting Spiller in space anymore which has been really disappointing. Spiller, Ford, and Palmer should be enough to beat GT offensively. How about another fullback dive this game? Designed Parker run or two?
I also think this game will be about how healthy Daquan Bowers is. He played slow the past couple games and it hurt us--he needs some super healing powers like the other bookend Sapp. He wasnt supposed to be ready till the fourth game?? Thats a month ahead of recovery time, thats really two months bc of camp and august drills he participated in...insane...
Anywho--I wanted to be more excited since this is the biggest game in almost 20 yrs but my heart isnt in it yet. Got to make one last pitcher of orange kool-aid for the year!! Come on Tigers!! I like Dr. Pepper so that is an encouraging sign...makes no sense I know, but I'm just going with it...
Clemson Surge!! Thats it the Clemson Surge takes the Dr. Pepper Champs...We can call it the All In, All Orange Bowl...haha...Oh and remember, after a yellow jacket stings you and loses its stinger its dead, right? So GT is already dead...just keep on keepin on...
Go Tigers!!
Tigermax: If you would of told me at the beginning of the year that we would make it to the Championship game, I would have been overjoyed to the point of not caring much about the result of the game. There were just to many questions surrounding the team before the start of the season to realistically be that optimistic about our chances. But now that we've made it...I really want to win. 19 years has been too long for a team with the annual talent and dedicated fanbase of Clemson's. Also, in the event of a loss, for several reasons this isn't a situation where we can step back and say "well, there's always next year."
1) We've got a lot of talent graduating at key skill positions (RB, WR, TE, etc.). We could even lose Kyle Parker to the baseball draft (although personally I think its unlikely).
2) Despite marginal improvement this season, we still have the seemingly perpetual problems at LB and O-line, as well as an emerging problem in the WR corps.
3) Unfortunately, the coaches overseeing these positions lack experience or have spotty track records in coaxing improvement.
4) This is shaping up to be the second consecutive "down" recruiting year. Not bad years, necessarily, but its not like we have loads of game-ready talent knocking down the door right now.
5) The rotation of our schedule works against us next year. As long as we continue to have Wake, BC, and FSU as road games every other year, our odds of winning the division take a substantial hit in even years (while being significantly improved in odd years).
So its a definitely a stretch to think we can contend next season. Swinney and company may well be envisioning a two-year plan for contending in 2011, but we'll need to see emergence of some players in the interim to obtain the "serious contender" label. So I guess I'm saying that the talent on this year's squad is almost certain to be superior to next year--I just never thought we'd put it together enough to make a run at the championship.
So what about Georgia Tech? I definitely think we are the underdog; I have next to no confidence in our ability to stop Paul Johnson's ground attack. Our best shot for winning is to match GT blow for blow with our offense and hope to force a turnover or two. We can do this against Tech's defense. The problem is our margin for error turnover-wise is non-existent. Put the ball on the ground even once on Saturday and we could be in a hole too big to climb out of.
Clemben: So its taken me a week to get over the whole losing to your eternal rival thing. So our main problems--blown Oline and LB assignments. I also think our secondary has seen its performance fade towards the end of the season. I thought for the first time all season coach Steele made some bad calls and couldnt make any key adjustments. So what I am hoping for is an early Christmas present in the form of a slowed Josh Nesbitt. He sustained an ankle injury against Georgia. A guy can dream...
We can beat GT but I think they are better than us right now. I think we were the better talent at the beginning of the season but spotted them too many points. Let me rephrase that--the coaches spotted them too many points that game. Pretty much on offense the game revolves around Parker settling and keeping his mechanics, which means Landon Walker needs to have the game of his life against the #8 rated prospect on Mel Kiper Jr.'s bogus big draft board. Morgan must be double teamed. Its tough though bc Palmer is our best WR.
Speaking of Palmer, I want more of those TE screens and misdirection plays we saw earlier in the turn around--no third and bubbles!!! We arent getting Spiller in space anymore which has been really disappointing. Spiller, Ford, and Palmer should be enough to beat GT offensively. How about another fullback dive this game? Designed Parker run or two?
I also think this game will be about how healthy Daquan Bowers is. He played slow the past couple games and it hurt us--he needs some super healing powers like the other bookend Sapp. He wasnt supposed to be ready till the fourth game?? Thats a month ahead of recovery time, thats really two months bc of camp and august drills he participated in...insane...
Anywho--I wanted to be more excited since this is the biggest game in almost 20 yrs but my heart isnt in it yet. Got to make one last pitcher of orange kool-aid for the year!! Come on Tigers!! I like Dr. Pepper so that is an encouraging sign...makes no sense I know, but I'm just going with it...
Clemson Surge!! Thats it the Clemson Surge takes the Dr. Pepper Champs...We can call it the All In, All Orange Bowl...haha...Oh and remember, after a yellow jacket stings you and loses its stinger its dead, right? So GT is already dead...just keep on keepin on...
Go Tigers!!
Sunday, 18 October 2009
Georgia Tech Rematch??
I'm sure this guy is really wanting us to play GT in the ACC Champs game. After such a great win, it feels good to be able to laugh at this but I wouldnt have been laughing the past two weeks. I looked the exact same way, so it feels like I'm laughing at myself. I always knew if we could listen in during the break we would find out those ESPN guys were really jerks. Give the kid a break, no no--its too funny...I'm glad we have the internets and the youtubes...enjoy the victory, we collectively earned it.
I got to say though, if you are making fun of the kid--I want you to show me a better, more passionate fanbase than ours. Long live Tiger Nation!!
I got to say though, if you are making fun of the kid--I want you to show me a better, more passionate fanbase than ours. Long live Tiger Nation!!
Thursday, 8 October 2009
Good Vibrations: For All Those Who Still Want To Believe
I havent been able to shake the utter disappointment from the Maryland game but I have found quiet hope and seen a glimmer of redemption in the simple fact that the Atlantic division is just awful this year. VT, GT, and Miami are superior teams right now--well lets hope GT is, and Virginia and Duke will beat someone in the Atlantic. So the point is that the winner of the Atlantic will assuredly have 2 losses but will more likely have three or four. So its going to be crowded and its going to come down to head to head records. Lets project two games into the future, shall we...
BC is the current front-runner--wait, the same BC we held to 50 yrds of offense and beat?? This is good for us bc BC plays/loses to VT this week and then plays NC State the next which is a toss-up. They will have at least two losses then, one of them to us!! We probably want State to win, bc the BC schedule then becomes the easiest of the remaining teams. NC the only remaining really tough game. So BC may have a 5-3 record in the conference 4-4 not out of the question.
Next threat is NC State--Tom O'Brien what is going on? They are 0-1 but a better team than they showed against Wake, probably the most dangerous team in terms of talent and coaching but lucky for us they have a tough schedule remaining--the play Duke this week and then BC the next but also have VT and NC. It would really help us if NC steps it up and can beat the majority of the Atlantic teams they play. I can easily see them being 5-3 or 4-4. Clemson needs to hold the tie breaker though.
Wake is very unpredictable. It seems to depend on the mood of Riley Skinner so I'm having a tough time placing them. They are 1-1 in conference and will play Maryland before playing us. If they beat Maryland we have to beat them but they do play Miami and GT which seem like two losses and an FSU team playing for Bowdens life so I think the losses will be there 5-3, 4-4.
Maryland is scary to me. They suck and we shouldnt have lost to them, but they have the weakest schedule in the division playing Duke and Virginia and then VT. Most teams are going to go 1-2 OOC but Maryland could go 2-1. We dont have the tie breaker so it feels more comfortable if they go 4-4, 5-3 spells doom. They play Wake and then Virginia so they could be 2-1 or 3-0 after next week.
Who would have thought we would be talking about FSU as the gutter dwellers of the pathetic Atlantic division. Things look even worse playing GT and at NC in the next two weeks. I dont think the 0-2 Noles are that bad a team but that loss to BC is mindbottling (thank you Will Ferrell), and I cant see them recovering to finish on top.
So there you have it. It looks like everyone is headed for 4-4 seasons. If Clemson can beat Wake, State, and FSU it can stand to lose to Miami and still come out on top. Unless Maryland gets crazy...
There is still hope Tiger fans and at least the defense is good. Can anyone imagine the absolute catastrophe this season would have been without CJ?? I mean its ugly enough already...
BC is the current front-runner--wait, the same BC we held to 50 yrds of offense and beat?? This is good for us bc BC plays/loses to VT this week and then plays NC State the next which is a toss-up. They will have at least two losses then, one of them to us!! We probably want State to win, bc the BC schedule then becomes the easiest of the remaining teams. NC the only remaining really tough game. So BC may have a 5-3 record in the conference 4-4 not out of the question.
Next threat is NC State--Tom O'Brien what is going on? They are 0-1 but a better team than they showed against Wake, probably the most dangerous team in terms of talent and coaching but lucky for us they have a tough schedule remaining--the play Duke this week and then BC the next but also have VT and NC. It would really help us if NC steps it up and can beat the majority of the Atlantic teams they play. I can easily see them being 5-3 or 4-4. Clemson needs to hold the tie breaker though.
Wake is very unpredictable. It seems to depend on the mood of Riley Skinner so I'm having a tough time placing them. They are 1-1 in conference and will play Maryland before playing us. If they beat Maryland we have to beat them but they do play Miami and GT which seem like two losses and an FSU team playing for Bowdens life so I think the losses will be there 5-3, 4-4.
Maryland is scary to me. They suck and we shouldnt have lost to them, but they have the weakest schedule in the division playing Duke and Virginia and then VT. Most teams are going to go 1-2 OOC but Maryland could go 2-1. We dont have the tie breaker so it feels more comfortable if they go 4-4, 5-3 spells doom. They play Wake and then Virginia so they could be 2-1 or 3-0 after next week.
Who would have thought we would be talking about FSU as the gutter dwellers of the pathetic Atlantic division. Things look even worse playing GT and at NC in the next two weeks. I dont think the 0-2 Noles are that bad a team but that loss to BC is mindbottling (thank you Will Ferrell), and I cant see them recovering to finish on top.
So there you have it. It looks like everyone is headed for 4-4 seasons. If Clemson can beat Wake, State, and FSU it can stand to lose to Miami and still come out on top. Unless Maryland gets crazy...
There is still hope Tiger fans and at least the defense is good. Can anyone imagine the absolute catastrophe this season would have been without CJ?? I mean its ugly enough already...
Sunday, 13 September 2009
Georgia Tech Recap
As I mentioned before, I have to force myself to take a couple of days off after tough losses before posting anything on the blog. Mostly to calm down, but it also allows a little perspective to seep in.
Anyways, the hilariously display of inept coaching and poor play for all units in the first quarter just about left me in a blind rage. That's why it was so unusual, even in crushing, last-minute defeat, to feel so calm and even cautiously optimistic after it was over. There were lots of things to like in the last three quarters.
Defense
I halfway expected to give up a big play or two early in the game. When you play Paul Johnson's offense, I think it takes a few series to really get into flow of the defensive attack. No matter how much you practice, come game time there's going to be an adjustment period. Its a shame that led to the long TD run, but there you have it. After the first quarter though, watching the defense was just a thing of beauty. The DEs where pressuring the outside, the secondary was covering, and even the linebackers were doing a decent job of wrapping up (still too many "hits" instead of tackles, particularly in that first quarter, but its still an improvement). And what can you say about the guard play in the middle of the D-line. It seems the last 2-4 years that if we didn't get penetration into the backfield on a run, the opposing team was picking up an automatic 5-6 yards. We just couldn't stuff power runs. What I saw in those last three quarters brought back memories of defenses long past. Not that I had much doubt, but this year's defense is going to be just fine.
Offense
Terrible, terrible first half--MTSU redux, with the Spiller reception filling in for the long Ford reception. I was all but typing my screeds pointed at Napier and Swinney, but then two things happened that I haven't seen in some time: 1) we actually started pushing around another ACC team's D-line with regularity, and 2) we started executing plays on every down of the drive. The second point is relieving because we have so much youth at the skill positions, but its the first point that separates this 2-quarter run of success from the Rob Spence era. We were running the ball with authority, and the offense was keyed off the run game. I loved it. Add in the explosive Spiller and Ford and you have a recipe for putting some points on the board.
Unfortunately, its time to throw some water on the optimism. GT isn't exactly known for its defense (probably around ACC average) and the D-line is undersized, albeit athletic and quick. Before I get excited, I want to see if they can replicate point #1 against a better defense. Coincidentally enough, the criminally underrated Boston College is coming to town this week, sporting a preseason projected third-best defense in Division I (or FBS or whatever they're calling it) according to FEI.
Also, we have no two-minute drill. In the three drives that were operating under the guise of two-minute drill (2 at the end of the first half and the final drive of the game), we managed to net 5 yards. And we didn't look like we had any idea of what we were doing.
Special Teams
53 yard FG!!!!!!! I think this amped me up as much as any play in the game.
Implications
I mentioned last week that this game didn't mean all that much, provided we beat an underrated Boston College this week. I also said that if we play a close game against GT, win or lose, we would be in contention for the Division title. I'd like to punt that last prediction down the road one more week, because no matter how good we look if we lost to BC the season is effectively over. Unless you plan on Clemson going 5-1 the rest of the ACC season.
Anyways, the hilariously display of inept coaching and poor play for all units in the first quarter just about left me in a blind rage. That's why it was so unusual, even in crushing, last-minute defeat, to feel so calm and even cautiously optimistic after it was over. There were lots of things to like in the last three quarters.
Defense
I halfway expected to give up a big play or two early in the game. When you play Paul Johnson's offense, I think it takes a few series to really get into flow of the defensive attack. No matter how much you practice, come game time there's going to be an adjustment period. Its a shame that led to the long TD run, but there you have it. After the first quarter though, watching the defense was just a thing of beauty. The DEs where pressuring the outside, the secondary was covering, and even the linebackers were doing a decent job of wrapping up (still too many "hits" instead of tackles, particularly in that first quarter, but its still an improvement). And what can you say about the guard play in the middle of the D-line. It seems the last 2-4 years that if we didn't get penetration into the backfield on a run, the opposing team was picking up an automatic 5-6 yards. We just couldn't stuff power runs. What I saw in those last three quarters brought back memories of defenses long past. Not that I had much doubt, but this year's defense is going to be just fine.
Offense
Terrible, terrible first half--MTSU redux, with the Spiller reception filling in for the long Ford reception. I was all but typing my screeds pointed at Napier and Swinney, but then two things happened that I haven't seen in some time: 1) we actually started pushing around another ACC team's D-line with regularity, and 2) we started executing plays on every down of the drive. The second point is relieving because we have so much youth at the skill positions, but its the first point that separates this 2-quarter run of success from the Rob Spence era. We were running the ball with authority, and the offense was keyed off the run game. I loved it. Add in the explosive Spiller and Ford and you have a recipe for putting some points on the board.
Unfortunately, its time to throw some water on the optimism. GT isn't exactly known for its defense (probably around ACC average) and the D-line is undersized, albeit athletic and quick. Before I get excited, I want to see if they can replicate point #1 against a better defense. Coincidentally enough, the criminally underrated Boston College is coming to town this week, sporting a preseason projected third-best defense in Division I (or FBS or whatever they're calling it) according to FEI.
Also, we have no two-minute drill. In the three drives that were operating under the guise of two-minute drill (2 at the end of the first half and the final drive of the game), we managed to net 5 yards. And we didn't look like we had any idea of what we were doing.
Special Teams
53 yard FG!!!!!!! I think this amped me up as much as any play in the game.
Implications
I mentioned last week that this game didn't mean all that much, provided we beat an underrated Boston College this week. I also said that if we play a close game against GT, win or lose, we would be in contention for the Division title. I'd like to punt that last prediction down the road one more week, because no matter how good we look if we lost to BC the season is effectively over. Unless you plan on Clemson going 5-1 the rest of the ACC season.
Friday, 11 September 2009
The morning (mourning) after
With the 30-27 loss last night we are now 0-1 in the ACC division race but you know who else is 0-1--FSU. You know who else has won any game in our division--only BC. If we had pulled it out we would be in the drivers seat to win the atlantic. I think GT and VT will beat almost every team in our division they play and Miami will be no pushover so we just need to take care of our own business and beat FSU.
If we do that we are in the ACC Champs and a chance to play for a BCS Bowl. I like our chances in a re-match on a neutral field against GT. So dont panic just yet. Who would have thought at halftime that this was even going to be a game or that we would be leading. We knew that Dabo and Napier would take their lumps as new coaches but didnt think that would equate to 14 points. Paul Johnson just out coached us at the beginning of the game, we werent ready for the first play, and then we made those dumb decisions. Everyone knew we werent going to kick the field goal--why do that with Tarrant sitting back there?? Sure he is supposed to kick it out of bounds but still...
Lots of lamenting to be had all around but I think we can take away a couple of things. KP throws lasers and will continue to get better--he is good enough to take us to the ACC Championship. We need to hope that the OL stays healthy and improves. Lambert was killing us in the first half--I liked that KP hung in the pocket but if you keep getting killed its got to be hard to constantly take the punishment. That holding call on Austin killed us, thanks bogus ACC refs. Our D will be solid and the 53 yarder says a lot about the potential Richard Jackson has as a kicker. Zimmerman?? Write less blogs and spend more time practicing--I can punt 30 yard kicks...
We can still get to a BCS game so hopefully the focus will stay--I like the purple unis much better with the orange trim. Oh and my hard drive crashed so if anyone has a laptop they arent using, feel free to send it to me...
If we do that we are in the ACC Champs and a chance to play for a BCS Bowl. I like our chances in a re-match on a neutral field against GT. So dont panic just yet. Who would have thought at halftime that this was even going to be a game or that we would be leading. We knew that Dabo and Napier would take their lumps as new coaches but didnt think that would equate to 14 points. Paul Johnson just out coached us at the beginning of the game, we werent ready for the first play, and then we made those dumb decisions. Everyone knew we werent going to kick the field goal--why do that with Tarrant sitting back there?? Sure he is supposed to kick it out of bounds but still...
Lots of lamenting to be had all around but I think we can take away a couple of things. KP throws lasers and will continue to get better--he is good enough to take us to the ACC Championship. We need to hope that the OL stays healthy and improves. Lambert was killing us in the first half--I liked that KP hung in the pocket but if you keep getting killed its got to be hard to constantly take the punishment. That holding call on Austin killed us, thanks bogus ACC refs. Our D will be solid and the 53 yarder says a lot about the potential Richard Jackson has as a kicker. Zimmerman?? Write less blogs and spend more time practicing--I can punt 30 yard kicks...
We can still get to a BCS game so hopefully the focus will stay--I like the purple unis much better with the orange trim. Oh and my hard drive crashed so if anyone has a laptop they arent using, feel free to send it to me...
Thursday, 10 September 2009
Georgia Tech Preview
Clemson vs. Georgia Tech, 9/10, 7:30pm, Bobby Dodd Stadium
Tigermax:
Battle of top 20 teams!! In FEI ratings, of course. I think every Clemson fan has had this day circled on the calendar for quite a few months now. Its easy to see why--this is a yardstick game for the season, based on the results I think we'll have a pretty good idea of how the season could play out barring a devastating injury or three down the road. Here are three general game outcomes followed by what I anticipate will be my visceral reaction: 1) We get blown out--"Well, that was crap. When's basketball season start again?" 2) Win or lose, we keep it close--"Wow, maybe I'm underselling this whole leadership thing. We should be right in it this year". 3) We blow them out--"WOOOOOOOOoooooooooo...wait. That was a fluke. I can't wait for the crash".
Yes, the Bowden years have conditioned me well.
I'm really looking forward to this game, though. It matches up two teams that play to each others strengths. GT relies on its offense while we counter with our defense. I give GT the slight edge here, and Clemson will have to make things up by outplaying the GT defense. In general I thought week one was encouraging, if they finish plays a little better I think we can score some on GT (in contrast to past years at Bobby Dodd.) But even then, we still have to overcome homefield advantage. I give the edge to GT, but with a big play or two from special teams or defense we'll be right there at the end of the game.
Tigermax:
Battle of top 20 teams!! In FEI ratings, of course. I think every Clemson fan has had this day circled on the calendar for quite a few months now. Its easy to see why--this is a yardstick game for the season, based on the results I think we'll have a pretty good idea of how the season could play out barring a devastating injury or three down the road. Here are three general game outcomes followed by what I anticipate will be my visceral reaction: 1) We get blown out--"Well, that was crap. When's basketball season start again?" 2) Win or lose, we keep it close--"Wow, maybe I'm underselling this whole leadership thing. We should be right in it this year". 3) We blow them out--"WOOOOOOOOoooooooooo...wait. That was a fluke. I can't wait for the crash".
Yes, the Bowden years have conditioned me well.
I'm really looking forward to this game, though. It matches up two teams that play to each others strengths. GT relies on its offense while we counter with our defense. I give GT the slight edge here, and Clemson will have to make things up by outplaying the GT defense. In general I thought week one was encouraging, if they finish plays a little better I think we can score some on GT (in contrast to past years at Bobby Dodd.) But even then, we still have to overcome homefield advantage. I give the edge to GT, but with a big play or two from special teams or defense we'll be right there at the end of the game.
Tuesday, 8 September 2009
Quick MTSU thoughts, a look ahead
While I feel its my job to inject some pessimism into the blog, I'll save it for the GT preview. But I do want to post a couple of quick thoughts:
- After the MTSU game, I felt like a high schooler suddenly reassured that the varsity team can beat the J.V. team. I guess its all the Stockstill & Co. talk getting to me.
- As such, the end results don't mean much but there were some positives to take away from the game. On balance, I liked the play-calling on offense (yay power formations!) and I liked what I saw from Parker, raw but displayed some pocket awareness and also should move around enough to keep opposing defenses honest.
- While its not predictive of future performance (because we were playing MTSU), was that the best single-game special teams performance in, I don't know, the last five years?
- Despite looking horrible Saturday, I'm thinking it ain't a bad thing having a player like Willy Korn around as the backup QB.
- The real season starts this week. I agree with Clemben's post below, but I would extend the "make or break us" sentiment to the next two weeks. We have one game that tilts against us and another that tilts towards us (I'm not nearly as down on BC as some others are, it seems). Lose both and its a long climb back into division contention.
- Miami did us a real favor last night. I don't expect them to lose any "how did that happen?" kind of game this year, so every close loss for FSU is a big plus for Clemson. Its still way too early, but with NC State's (and to a lesser extent, Wake's) disappointing start, it looks like Clemson could really contend. We'll see come Thursday.
Monday, 7 September 2009
GT will make or break season
So it seems that after the first week its official--the ACC sucks again this year. I still say we are better than the Big Ten and rank third on the pecking order top to bottom but we are still in a down period for sure. This means that the two biggest games of the season are this Thursday and when we take on FSU.
If we can somehow get by Tech, which is not completely outside the realm of possibility, then the season looks not only doable but possibly magical. Yes my orange spectacles are on but just indulge me if you will. Our division looks bad--NC State wasnt special, Maryland got manhandled, Wake is down, and BC still doesnt have a QB. We will see how good FSU is tonight--it would be big if Miami gets the win. So really it comes down to who you play in the other division. GT will be good but I would rather play them than VT, and Virginia looked awful. We dont get to play another pathetic Duke team but we should get a pretty beat up Miami team.
My point is that with teams under-performing there will be parity and middling records. A win against GT puts us in the drivers seat and would create the buzz and momentum needed to build to a big enough let down (a Bowdenesque loss to an inferior team) to call it a true Clemson season. Yeah a loss wont break the season but it will send everyone back down to earth, a place we know all too well...
All I'm saying is that the crummy ACC could be all Dabo and company need this year, hopefully GT's young line isnt up to the task.
If we can somehow get by Tech, which is not completely outside the realm of possibility, then the season looks not only doable but possibly magical. Yes my orange spectacles are on but just indulge me if you will. Our division looks bad--NC State wasnt special, Maryland got manhandled, Wake is down, and BC still doesnt have a QB. We will see how good FSU is tonight--it would be big if Miami gets the win. So really it comes down to who you play in the other division. GT will be good but I would rather play them than VT, and Virginia looked awful. We dont get to play another pathetic Duke team but we should get a pretty beat up Miami team.
My point is that with teams under-performing there will be parity and middling records. A win against GT puts us in the drivers seat and would create the buzz and momentum needed to build to a big enough let down (a Bowdenesque loss to an inferior team) to call it a true Clemson season. Yeah a loss wont break the season but it will send everyone back down to earth, a place we know all too well...
All I'm saying is that the crummy ACC could be all Dabo and company need this year, hopefully GT's young line isnt up to the task.
Friday, 13 March 2009
CLEMSON ACC TOURNAMENT RECAP: Well, that was Quick
Georgia Tech 86, Clemson 81
As much as I talked about how tough a matchup GT is for Clemson, there is no way they should play this poorly, giving up 86 points on another night of 60% effective field goal percentage defense. To the chart:
(Chart from Statsheet. I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
I thought Clemson played like a team that thought they shouldn't have to play in the first round, and as a result they won't be playing in the second. Tonight's effort looked like it came from a collapsed team; there was little attempt to play as a team, as evident from the complete absence of defense.
Purnell has a week to talk some sense into the players--I really hate seeing a well-coached team with this much talent go out like this (mainly because it's such a rare occurrence with Clemson basketball). The rest of us can pray for a 7 (or 10) instead of a 8/9 seed.
As much as I talked about how tough a matchup GT is for Clemson, there is no way they should play this poorly, giving up 86 points on another night of 60% effective field goal percentage defense. To the chart:
(Chart from Statsheet. I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
I thought Clemson played like a team that thought they shouldn't have to play in the first round, and as a result they won't be playing in the second. Tonight's effort looked like it came from a collapsed team; there was little attempt to play as a team, as evident from the complete absence of defense.
Purnell has a week to talk some sense into the players--I really hate seeing a well-coached team with this much talent go out like this (mainly because it's such a rare occurrence with Clemson basketball). The rest of us can pray for a 7 (or 10) instead of a 8/9 seed.
Thursday, 12 March 2009
CLEMSON ACC TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
(Atlanta, 03/12-03/15, ALL DAY!)
Aaah, the ACC tourney...a great warmup for next week's main event. I have to say, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament: best sports weekend of the year. It used to get competition from the three day bowl period around New Years, but the NCAA has pretty much ruined that by dragging it out over a couple of weeks. Thank you NCAA for not screwing up the men's basketball tournament...yet.
I haven't spent much time previewing Clemson's (hopefully first two) matchups because I don't think I can type much more about Georgia Tech or Florida State. I even touched on why we struggle against GT/FSU-type teams earlier in the week. One point to emphasize: the stakes are high for Clemson today/tomorrow. A surprise loss on the eve of Selection Sunday to a perceived bad team could drop us down to an 8/9seed of death. A couple of wins, though, would solidify a 6 seed, and maybe push us up to the 4/5 level.
I want let me be clear about one thing, though: despite this being a tough draw for the Tigers, both of these games are winnable. Against FSU, an extra bounce or a blown call or two going our way and we could have beaten them twice in the regular season. Unfortunately, if we bruise our way through two of the three tallest teams in the league, our reward will likely be North Carolina...and your going to see a tired Tiger team take on arguably the best team in the country. But hey, in basketball you just never know: Potter could drain 5 three attempts and/or Stitt could hang 30 points on his former favorite team. All I know is I'm glad its tournament time.
GO TIGERS!!!!!!!!!
Aaah, the ACC tourney...a great warmup for next week's main event. I have to say, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament: best sports weekend of the year. It used to get competition from the three day bowl period around New Years, but the NCAA has pretty much ruined that by dragging it out over a couple of weeks. Thank you NCAA for not screwing up the men's basketball tournament...yet.
I haven't spent much time previewing Clemson's (hopefully first two) matchups because I don't think I can type much more about Georgia Tech or Florida State. I even touched on why we struggle against GT/FSU-type teams earlier in the week. One point to emphasize: the stakes are high for Clemson today/tomorrow. A surprise loss on the eve of Selection Sunday to a perceived bad team could drop us down to an 8/9seed of death. A couple of wins, though, would solidify a 6 seed, and maybe push us up to the 4/5 level.
I want let me be clear about one thing, though: despite this being a tough draw for the Tigers, both of these games are winnable. Against FSU, an extra bounce or a blown call or two going our way and we could have beaten them twice in the regular season. Unfortunately, if we bruise our way through two of the three tallest teams in the league, our reward will likely be North Carolina...and your going to see a tired Tiger team take on arguably the best team in the country. But hey, in basketball you just never know: Potter could drain 5 three attempts and/or Stitt could hang 30 points on his former favorite team. All I know is I'm glad its tournament time.
GO TIGERS!!!!!!!!!
Friday, 6 March 2009
CLEMBENTIGERMAX POWER RANKINGS: TEAMS
First a word of preface--yes its a little late in the season but we've been meaning to do this for awhile. These arent the actual standings but how good the teams are doing currently and RPI rankings, SOS, my opinion, etc.
TEAM RANKINGS
- North Carolina-Although not the unbeatable juggernaut they were at the beginning of the season-the core of Ellington, Hans, and Lawson is formidable-especially with Lawson more motivated to pick up his game as the end of the season looms.
- Duke-No I dont want Duke to be this high but I cant justify putting FSU or Wake ahead of them. Somehow Coach K has been able to right the ship. Clemson exposed their lack of athleticism but that Coach K can still coach and, unfortunately, still star in credit card commercials. I still think there are too many white players, especially ones named Paulus, to have a chance at a deep NCAA run. Second round defeat sounds about right.
- Florida State-After their solid defeat of Clemson I want to put them as number two but just cant do it after loosing to Duke. They are slightly ahead of an uneven Wake team and despite the loss are clicking down the stretch at the right time.
- Wake Forest-Perhaps the most lottery talent on one team in the country. At times they are absolutely dominant but at other times cant figure out how to share the ball and play without passion. Too much selfish play. Granted they beat on FSU the first and only time they will play but losses to GT, NC State and a poor showing at Virginia and Maryland give me cause for concern.
- Clemson-My Tigers just cant seem to get the ball in to T-Book. This team has been overachieving all year and has had a rocky week but its been a great ride. Still capable of beating any team in the league and perhaps the country when they are on. OP can flat out coach and hopefully makes the right adjustments down the stretch.
- Boston College-Rice is the heart and soul of this team but they can lack consistency as evidenced by their loss to NC State. Must win against BC to secure NCAA bid and must find some scoring help to ease the burden on Rice. Its funny how a lot of these teams primary colors are the same...
- Virginia Tech-This season has been a disappointing one for me and I'm sure for Hokies fans. After being shut out of the NCAA's last year and coach Greenberg wailing and moaning about it I think its safe to assume we will be hearing more of it. Bad ref work cost them at Duke and maybe even NC but they have to beat FSU and win some games in ACC tourney or its NIT city. Still this is a more talented team than their record indicates.
- Maryland-Gary Williams should be commended for the job he has done with this team. Watching them almost beat a superior Wake squad is why I love college bball over the nba anyday. David 'churchballer' Neal and the Grevis man a team that is as much about heart as it is about skill.
- Miami-Welcome to Miami, home of the most disappointing team in the ACC. Projected by some to finish third, with the loss to GT I think we can say that barring a massive run deep into the ACC tourney they have punched their NIT ticket. McClinton is still amazing and can still take over a game but this team just cant find any semblance of consistency.
- NC State-Someone needs to give Coach Lowe a clue. He is the most awful coach in the ACC and his teams reflect it. State has picked it up here at the end of the year, beating BC and will give Miami a hard rub but its hard seeing how this team is going to rise out of mediocrity with Lowe at the helm.
- Georgia Tech-I'm not sure I've ever seen a team do so little with so much talent. Paul Hewitt has been giving the aforementioned Coach Lowe a run for his money as the worst coach in the ACC this year. This team has the talent and potential but cant put it together and if it were not for the stellar recruiting class coming to GT, I would think that Hewitt's days would be numbered, regardless he is on a short leash heading into next year.
- Virginia-The fact that Virginia is on the bottom of this list speaks to the relative strength of the ACC, top to bottom-perhaps the best conference in the country. This team is all about Landesberg, Chad Ford even has him going in the first round if he declares, but not much is surrounding him. If he goes the team is done for next year and I dont see Coach Leitao weathering the storm for much longer. There is some young talent here but it still needs a lot of developing.
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