Dennis Dodd's 2009 Fail, Miami a Must Win??

This video was from last year when Miami was the best 1 loss team in the nation and on their way to a BCS bowl game according to a ton of pundits. No one gave Clemson a chance, especially an ill informed Dennis Dodd, and we won. No one gave us a chance against Auburn last week either and we should have won that game, now we are underdogs again--at home. A lot of people have really good previews up, so I won't waste your time with that. All I am going to say right now is that this is the game that will frame our season.

Last year we ended Miami's season with out win. We kept them out of the ACC championship game. A win tomorrow puts us in the drivers seat for a return to the Championship game. Miami is our toughest Coastal game and hopefully most of the suspensions hold up against UNC when we play them. A depleted GT team we get at home. I am convinced that winning the ACC Atlantic will come down to how teams fare against Coastal division foes. So lets take a look.

Florida State is still our main competition. But they are looking weaker after BYU just got spanked by Utah State! FSU beat up on Wake and Samford so have they really been tested yet? Oklahoma is a good team but struggled with Air Force so its hard to get a good read on FSU. They play at Virginia this week and at Miami next week. If we can beat Miami, it will be even harder to beat Miami when they finally return home. Lastly they have UNC in early November which might mean UNC has more players returning. They won't run away with it but might go 6-2 or 5-3.

Wake has been awful and if Maryland is competing for the title then everyone will be 4-4 so I am not afraid of them. NC State is now the darkhorse (I've always thought it was a 2 team race with us and FSU) and an interesting team we need to watch out for. I'm still not convinced but they beat GT at GT and tomorrow play VTech. If they beat Tech and we lose to Miami then I would have to put them as the frontrunner's. Could it be that all O'Brien needed was a healthy Nate Irving(who has looked pretty darn good) and a few healthy players to make a run. They also play at UNC late in the year and we get them at home, although they have a Thursday night game against FSU and the long weekend to prepare for us. Wilson is a good QB but I am not sold yet.

I laughed when I saw some ESPN peeps putting BC as a possible Atlantic division winner. I will cheer for them against Notre Dame but its been obvious to anyone paying attention that the overall talent level has diminished at BC every year since Spaz took over. Great guy I'm sure and not a bad defensive coach but without a QB and any dangerous skill players its a tall order. The defense is still stout but they already lost to VTech. What BC has going for them is the easiest Coastal schedule with Duke and Virginia but I don't see them above .500 in conference play.

The other reason we need to beat Miami is for recruiting. Sammy Watkins is the number one receiver in the state of Florida and is down to us and Miami. That is reason enough. Even Jeff Scott couldn't inadequately develop his talent (sorry, low blow). To jump into that upper echelon of recruiting where we pull in Rome, Shell, one stud LB, even Clowney (who will be there for the game), we need a marquee win like this every year. Going into the Plains was respectable but you need to beat Florida teams to steal the CJ Spiller's and hopefully Mike Bellamy's of the world on a consistent enough basis to win championship's plural.

Also with all the big matchups this week a win against Miami places us firmly in the top 25, if not top 20. Without it, it will be a long road to being ranked this season. Lastly it would be a nice self esteem boost to all Clemson fans who think we can still win the national championship this year to be able to say that we have beat the Canes two times in a row and no one likes to get beat on your Homecoming date.

Come on Tigers--help keep the families and fathers of the upstate functional this weekend.

Wake Forest Preview

Clemson vs. Wake Forest, 03/07, 6:00pm, Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum

Yesterday's results make this an all-or-nothing event for the Tigers. A win gives us the three seed by merit of a better combined head-to-head record (2-1) in the tiebreaker with Virginia Tech (1-1) and FSU (1-2). A loss drops us all the way to the six seed, as we would be tied alone with the Wake Forest team that just beat us. I don't think anyone can understate the importance of this game. I honestly don't think Clemson has much of a chance at an ACC tournament run given that we match up so poorly this season with the league's best teams, Maryland and Duke. But a couple of wins and a good showing in a third game has the potential to vault us into a six seed in the NCAA tournament--as semi-arbitrary as the ACC tie-breaking system is, don't underestimate the value of the tag "third-best team in the ACC".

About the actual game. As I've mentioned in the last previews, Clemson closes out three straight games against opponents with a strikingly similar general profile: turnover-prone, reasonably-poor shooting, and offensive-glass dominant on offense with a well above-average defense driven by effective FG% against numbers that are the envy of teams across the nation. In fact, Wake ranks #1 in the country in effective FG% against percentage. This is why I generally feel that WF poses the toughest matchup for the Tigers out of the final three teams--unlike FSU they defend the 2- and 3-point shot equally well and they are also better at holding onto the ball relative to both FSU and GT. Despite this, it's fair to see Clemson as the mild favorite given their performance in the last two games, and their additional victory over FSU earlier this season.

Clemson also has other factors working in their favor in this game. On defense, WF does not defend against the offensive rebound very well. They also, unlike FSU or to a lesser extent GT, do not force turnovers. Finally, Wake Forest is considerably worse than either FSU or GT at shooting the ball on offense. I think this game will come down to who does a better job keeping the other team off the offensive glass and who converts more second-chance opportunities around the rim.

I'm hopeful that Wake, mathematically eliminated from the first-round bye and on the tail of a four game losing streak now starting to threaten their NCAA tournament plans, will come out dispirited. Unfortunately, senior night has a way of reinvigorating teams. Clemson will need to absorb the emotional high that Wake runs out, calmly reminding themselves they are the better team. I expect they can then start slowly asserting their will on the Demon Deacons, hopefully aided by the voluntary unraveling of Dino's squad as they see their post-season start slipping away...

GO TIGERS!!

ACC Tourney Byes, on the Line Today

Haven't written anything since last Wednesday, but the ACC tournament picture is a lot clearer now. If FSU loses today (regardless of what VT does) we can punch our ACC first round bye without hitting the floor on Sunday. Unfortunately, I fully expect FSU to grab a road win at Miami. I think UNC's dramatic single-season fall (as an aside, why didn't anyone see this coming? Everyone just expected the freshmen to fill in and play like the UNC freshmen we're accustomed to seeing?) is the only reason why people aren't talking about Miami failing to live up to expectations once again.

The argument for an FSU win is that it will motivate Clemson to get out on the floor and beat Wake Forest, which will help our NCAA seeding (really quickly: 8/9 right now, 7/8 with a win). I can see the rationale for this; there's certainly a non-zero chance that Clemson suffers a letdown and gets handed a beatdown on Senior Night in Winston-Salem in the event of an FSU loss (Wake's not a bad team, after all...) On the other hand, to paraphrase wise man, "De-fault" are the two sweetest words in the English language. I won't be losing any sleep tonight worrying about a letdown if FSU falters in Miami.

On that note, for one day only, let's go 'Canes!

FSU Recap 2

Clemson 53, Florida St. 50

I said at the end of the preview that if we didn't make our three-point shots, couldn't force turnovers at a reasonable clip, and couldn't get offensive rebounds we'd be in for a slog. If anyone was confused about the definition of a "slog", that was not only a prototypical slog, it was something close to the paragon of a slog. Check out the rate of scoring (or lack thereof) in the chart:

College Basketball

And we managed to win. I'm still not sure how. It's strange, but I didn't think the defense was anything special. They were solid, but not spectacular. A lot of times FSU looked as lost running their halfcourt offense as we did, they missed makeable shots, and a lot of their turnovers were of the unforced variety. No, I think the game was somehow won on the offensive side of the ball. I don't often applaud individual efforts, mainly 'cause the college game ain't the same as the NBA game, but tonight I'll give big helpings of credit to Trevor Booker for finding ways to get close to the basket and to Andre Young for finding ways to get open at key points in the game (and draining a halfcourt jumper). It's particularly impressive because FSU stuck to more or less the same strategy as game 1, collapsing on Trevor Booker. In this game they seemed to be rolling over a man from the basket side to double team instead of collapsing in on Booker from the three-point line. This lessened the number of good looks we got around the perimeter. Normally Booker is still good at finding the open man in those situations, but against FSU's inside height he fired quite a few errant passes, particularly in the early going. But he settled down and ended played one of the best offensive games of his career against one of the better defenses in the country.

This win also opens the door to a first-round ACC bye, something no one in their right mind was talking about a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, and I hate to be the bearer of bad news here ClemBen, Clemson basically still needs to win both of their remaining games or hope for a bunch of other things to happen if they split their final two games. FSU has the upper hand right now with the easiest schedule by far of the five teams vying for the last two spots. If they were to win out, they would finish 10-6 and leave four teams vying for one slot.

The way I see it now, barring any strange upsets (like VT losing at home to NC State or something), if we win both of the final two games we grab the three seed (if VT loses to GT) or the four seed (if VT beats GT). If we finish 9-7, I only see two longshot scenarios. If we beat GT instead of WF, we also need FSU to beat WF and lose to Miami and GT to beat VT. That would give us the four seed. If we beat WF instead of GT, we need WF to beat FSU, FSU to beat Miami, and VT to beat GT. That would also give us the four seed.

There's probably a few other wild scenarios in there, but those are the most realistic I'm seeing right now. Simply put, Clemson still needs to win out. Lots of strange things could still happen, but the losses to VT and GT coupled with FSU's likely 10-6 finish put us in a relatively weak position because our two victories over FSU don't mean anything in any tie-breakers if they finish above us.

Lastly, it's time to update the list from the beginning of yesterday's post:

Number of games Clemson has led by 10 or more points and lost this season: 2 (Illinois, Maryland)

Number of games Clemson has trailed by 10 or more points and won this season: 2 (Butler, FSU)

I don't know if a team that can rally as often as "collapse" can really be labeled as a team prone to the collapse, but just so everyone is on the same page with the numbers...

GO TIGERS!!

More on "Collapses"; FSU Preview 2

Following up on yesterday's post wherein I tried to counter some of the prevailing wisdom out there in TigerLand, I decided to look at how many times Clemson has blown a "significant" lead this year, and compare that to the number of times they have overcome a "significant" lead. I set the threshold at 10 points. That's a completely arbitrary number, it would be better to look at total points scored and have some kind of sliding scale where less than 10 points might be significant in a low-scoring game and more than 10 points would be significant in a higher-scoring game. But I haven't got that kind of time right now and 10 points is useful as a quick proxy. I might have missed a game or two (let me know if you find one), but as you'll see, it doesn't matter much:

Number of games Clemson has led by 10 or more points and lost this season: 2 (Illinois, Maryland)

Number of games Clemson has trailed by 10 or more points and won this season: 1 (Butler)

Yep, that's a whole lot of collapsin' by the Tigers right there. Like I said yesterday, I'm not sure where this notion comes from, but there's no basis for it in the numbers. Looking back over the game logs, I was actually pretty surprised at how infrequently we've played games where there were a lot of lead changes--the times we've lost this year we've typically trailed throughout and the times we've won we've led more or less from start to finish. Of course, there are occasionally runs by the opposing team to make things closer, but that happens to every team in college basketball.

Now to the preview:

Clemson vs. Florida State, 02/28, 5:30, Donald L. Tucker Center

No one needs to be told how important this game is to the Tigers. I've become more and more convinced that Clemson is going to struggle mightily against Georgia Tech on Tuesday because 1) GT is, at this point, a seriously underrated team that's played a conference schedule with the same degree of difficulty as Clemson and 2) Clemson will be coming off a 2 days rest vs. three days for GT. As laughable as this might have sounded just a few weeks ago, Clemson's easiest path to 9 wins might be to win at both FSU and Wake Forest. Translation: we have our work cut out for us.

I don't have a lot to add to the last FSU preview. The short version: our defense matches up well with their offense because they feature one of the worst turnover rates in the entire country (not just the ACC) while we run out one of the best turnover-causing defenses in the country. On the other hand, FSU's defense is better than our offense, right now ranking #1 against the inside shot and #8 in the country in effective FG% against. Their weakness, however, is defending the three, in which they are markedly below ACC-average. Teams that have beaten them this year, including us, have made lots of three-pointers. FSU also struggles to keep other teams off the offensive glass, which, given their height, is kind of baffling.

This is a game where I would absolutely expect the Tigers to run the press all evening long. Don't give FSU any breathing room, because every possession is a turnover waiting to happen. One possible complication is whether Oliver Purnell wants to try and hold back some to ensure we have any energy on Tuesday night against a GT team that also frequently turns the ball over. Unless we're down by an absolutely unwinnable margin, I wouldn't recommend it, because this is the kind of game that could turn in our favor quickly even if we are trailing by double digits at some point. Against GT you just hope that Senior Night provides enough adrenaline to fuel our insanely energy-expensive defensive pressure.

I would look for FSU to try and limit Clemson's three point looks by leaving Alabi 1-on-1 against Booker. I was really surprised that FSU continually collapsed on Booker when he got the ball in game 1 at Littlejohn considering how Alabi manhandled Booker by his lonesome last year. I think that was a real key for Clemson, they got a lot of good three-point looks I wasn't counting on going into the game with the inside-out play of Booker. As far as adjustments go, this seems like a no-brainer for FSU to at least try at the beginning of the game.

If Clemson can shoot the three ball at a roughly a 35-40% clip, get a few easy putbacks from Booker/Grant, and force the expected amount turnovers, they can win the game. If not, its going to be a slog. GO TIGERS!!

Ron Morris Is Barely a Journalist

**UPDATED BELOW**

Ron Morris produces another winner article today that needs a response. How this man is able to cover Clemson sports when he clearly can't be an objective journalist is beyond me. The State just loves its Gamecocks, if your listening editors--reel in all this constant cock loving. Maybe it is time for a letter writing campaign or something.

The article's title says Clemson is squarely on the bubble. This is true but with a couple weeks to go thats not such a bad place to be. Bracketology and all leading publications on the NCAA tourney have us in with a 9 or 10 seed. We are on the bubble, it's true, but if the season ends today we are in(unlike another team from this state).

Ron goes on to provide this rational, "Let's break it down and determine how many games Clemson needs to win. Clemson is 7-6 in the ACC and 19-8 overall. Its remaining games are at Florida State, at home against Georgia Tech and at Wake Forest. In all likelihood, Clemson will finish 8-8 in the league and 20-10 overall. That will not get Clemson in the tournament, unless the Tigers win at least two games in the ACC tournament." Ron I am still waiting for the breakdown--all you got is your measly opinion so far. How do you somehow predict that Clemson needs to win TWO games in the tourney if we go 8-8. I can understand ONE but TWO?? What is your rationale??

He stupidly says, "Clemson's resume is not the greatest. Its RPI is 36, and its strength of schedule is 34. Its best wins are against Butler on a neutral court and against Maryland and Florida State at home. Its only road win in the league is at last-place N.C. State." While its true we struggle on the road an RPI of 36 is golden and a SOS of 34 helps our cause. That Butler win really stands out and we have a chance to beat either FSU or Wake to improve our road record. Plus we only have one bad loss to BC and they just crawled into the top 100, meaning we have no really bad losses. Pomeroy has us at #17. Lets not forget the fact that we play one of the toughest ACC Conference schedules. With single games against NC, NC State, and Miami.

Oh but about that ACC?? "Breaking even in the ACC will not help Clemson's cause because the league is not considered among the elite this season. Only Duke is considered a national title contender, and no other team in the league has elevated itself from good to great." First relying solely on conference strength to gauge a teams probability for the NCAA tourney is shaky reasoning and its a big assumption to think that a .500 record is going to hurt your resume.

So the Big East is the best conference. Followed usually by the Big 12, Big 10 and then the ACC. (We don't need to get into a debate about whether or not the Atlantic 10 is better than the SEC) The problem with this is that the Big 12 is top heavy and has some really bad cellar dwellars, as well as the Big Ten. The ACC has ZERO teams under .500 and the team at .500 beat Michigan State. In our Big Ten match-up we basically split (not all teams played as well) and I am confident if we played that tourney challenge again we would win going away. Of the Big Ten's 11 teams 4 have losing records. The ACC has more parity than the Big 12 and certainly the Big 10. So I think 8-8 in conference isn't as bad as Ron Morris makes it out to be.

Another contributing factor to remember is never before in the history of the selection committee since I was alive has the Pac 10 only produced one team for the tourney, maybe two. Thats a good 3-4 slots automatically up for grabs. Not to mention that the SEC is pretty pathetic too. Now the Atlantic 10 will push for slots but they won't chose a 19-8 Charlotte or 18-9 Dayton over Clemson.

Then Ron Morris finishes by contradicting himself, "Purnell might also want to knock on wood that Clemson wins on Sunday at Florida State or the following Sunday at Wake Forest. A win in either game will propel Clemson into the NCAA tournament." Wait you said before that 8-8 requires TWO wins in the tourney. Oh so if we only win the home game we need two ACC tourney wins. I understand your opinion but it's just that Ron. Its like me saying we need one win in the tourney with an 8-8 record. Look your just like a blogger in pajamas...

Ultimately if Clemson goes 8-8 and flames out of the ACC tourney it will have more to do with how the rest of the teams on the bubble finish the regular season. If a Gonzaga were to lose its tourney and still get an at-large or another Big East team like Louisville or UConn keep winning. We are on the bubble but it's not time to panic, it is certainly not time to listen to Ron Morris.

UPDATE by TigerMax:

I'm glad ClemBen did the dirty work of actually reading a Ron Morris article, much less spending the time to take it apart. Look, it's no secret Clemson needs two wins to assure itself a spot in the tournament, but an 8-8 record absolutely should put us in. I'm getting real, real tired of this crazy national perception that the ACC is weak. Check out Kenpom.com's conference rankings, which are based on the tempo-independent offensive and defensive numbers for all teams in the conference. The ACC tops the list, pretty much neck-and-neck with the Big12. There's a fairly sizeable gap between those two conferences and the Big East and Big10. (To its "credit", the SEC is up to #5 after two straight years at #6). (Also, if you took the top 8-10 teams in the Big East I have no doubt they would form the strongest conference, but that's not how objective rankings work, you play the teams in your conference--even the crappy ones at the bottom of the league, and that is reflected in the strength of your schedule.) Now, Kenpom rankings aren't the gospel, and they are subject to being skewed due to a small thirty game sample. But give me a break.

Make no mistake about it, 6 teams from the ACC will get in. As I mentioned a week or so ago (welcome to the party, Ron Morris!), Clemson can't afford to get into a tie with another team for sixth place. For instance, if GT and Clemson both end up at 8-8, GT gets the nod because of a much stronger SOS. But an 8-8 finish by Clemson and a 7-9 finish by GT (an outside possibility) gives us a slot.

FSU Recap

Clemson 77, FSU 67

Renewed hope! Not because I think last night was a "turning point" or some other sports journalism buzzword, but because we gave ourselves a nice postseason boost literally providing relief and hope for the fanbase.

I'll wouldn't call the Tigers performance dominant last night, even if they clearly gave the appearance of being the better team. I think they were still pretty much the same Tigers team we've seen--struggling with turnovers and relying heavily on their opponent to be sloppy with the ball. The primary difference tonight? The three pointers were falling, and they were falling early (decent FT shooting didn't hurt, either). That coupled with the 3-point assisted run at the end of the first half put the Seminoles in a difficult position; FSU is not a team well-designed for mounting a double digit comeback. Their lack of outside shooting and their relatively slow tempo had them pressing in their play from the outset of the second half. To the chart:

NCAA Basketball

(I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)

Clemson was comfortably ahead through most of the second half, handily fighting off a couple of mini-runs the 'Noles made.

The overall gameplan was relatively simple from Clemson's perspective, they looked for the three early and often to try and counter the FSU's tough inside defense. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of the first threes were fired up by Potter, Booker, and Jennings; all tall guys that could see over FSU's perimeter height. When they started falling, that opened up the inside a little bit, and I'll take this opportunity to thank Devin Booker for putting up 14 points in 17 (!) minutes (c'mon coaching staff--give this guy some more minutes...) The offense even showed good discipline when dealing with the FSU zone, I think it made it even easier for Clemson to execute their gameplan with Young and Stitt patiently searching for seams to penetrate halfway before kicking out for decent three-point looks when the defense collapsed on them. I'm not sure why Leonard Hamilton stuck with the zone for so long in the second half when it was pretty clear it was working in the Tigers advantage. On defense Clemson kept the press on most of the game, aware of FSU's proclivity for turnovers. I think this was a shrewd coaching move, it made it even more difficult for FSU to mount a comeback when they kept giving up the occasional possession.

As I mentioned in the preview, this game was important because it gives us our first real indication of how well Clemson will play against tall teams with exceptionally good defenses, the general profile of teams that gave us fits last year. I think Clemson showed it could handle a lot of the fundamental problems that bothered them last year, including finding clean passing lanes and shooting over the perimeter defense. Additionally, this was the first time Clemson performed well against a team that excels at limiting the opposing teams FG%. All in all, a very good sign as we move into the last six games of the season.

As a cautionary note, though, Clemson can't rely on David Potter to go 4-5 from three point land and also I thought the FSU didn't play with a lot of intensity, particularly in the second half. It still won't be easy to knock off FSU on the road or to beat another similar team, Wake Forest, on the road. But at least for now Clemson is back on track for an 8-8 ACC record, trending towards a 9-7 finish.

FSU Preview

Florida St. vs. Clemson, 02/10, 7:00pm, Littlejohn

I've been battling computer problems at my home, so I don't have much time. I just wanted to point out that in all likelihood a birth in the NCAA tournament is riding on tonight's game. A loss and we have to go at least 4-2 the rest of the way, 5-1 if we want to remove any doubts come selection Sunday.

Moreover, tonight's game will tell us a lot about how the rest of the season should swing. When looking at general team profiles, FSU, GT, and Wake Forest all share a lot of similarities and we play these teams four times in the last seven games. Lose tonight and I wouldn't be surprised to end up 1-3 in those four games, instead of the 3-1 mark we probably need to post.

Like GT and Wake Forest, FSU is an extremely tall team that plays fantastic defense that focuses on lowering an opponent's field goal percentage. Last season, Clemson had trouble getting passes into the post due to FSU's average effective height blocking passing lanes on the perimeter. On the rare occasion when we did get the ball inside, Trevor Booker was manhandled by Solomon Alabi and crew. This season is no different, FSU is outstanding against the 2pt shot. To beat FSU, you have to stick some three-pointers, which is the only semi-weakness in their defense. Only problem is, they do a good job of limiting the number of open looks so teams don't put up a lot of shots. We better hope Potter has some semblance of a stroke, because he's the guy that could possibly see over the FSU defense.

The good news is that FSU still isn't producing much on offense. They struggle in turning the ball over, which plays right into our strength. Of course, this was also true last year and we managed to lose twice with the game in Tallahassee not even being particulalry close. Season's effectively on the line boys, let's see what we Clemson can do with their backs against the wall. GO TIGERS!!!

Virginia Tech Recap Part 2: Quick Thoughts on the Game

Virginia Tech 70, Clemson 59

I was actually pretty happy with the gameplan that Oliver Purnell assembled for Saturday. Clemson came out and used the press sparingly, a wise move since the Hokies protect the ball well and have historically shredded our press for easy points. Instead, we focused on playing aggressive half-court defense, trying to force the Hokies to beat us with their awful field goal percentage. On offense, we still looked pretty terrible but at least we looked for the three point shot early to try and soften up the inside for Booker. The main problem was that Oliver Purnell rightfully assumed the officiating would be the same that it's been all season, and Clemson would be able to throw some weight around inside the arc. Instead, we got the tightest-called game in recent memory and Clemson was essentially out of fouls to give on the inside by the ten minute mark. Coincidentally enough, that's about the point that VT started seizing control of the game as Clemson was forced to play tentatively underneath. Take a look at the chart:

NCAA Basketball

(I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)

Clemson's back was finally broken by the possession where we had three good looks at the basket to trim the lead to four but ended up instead fouling Delaney (surprise, surprise) after VT managed to tip the ball out to midcourt. Delaney promptly sank two more free throws, effectively a four point swing that stretched the VT lead to 8 with 3:39 to go. This set up the three point shot on the next possession that lifted VT's win probability over 30%. Clemson didn't look the same again and VT never looked back. If Potter goes up and dunks one of those shots instead of flailing away from the basket and missing a three foot fadeaway maybe I'm talking about a much different result.

Anyways, I'm finding it hard to fault the coaching staff here, unless the refs decided to call a tighter game because of all the talk about "physical play", which I commented on in part one of the recap below. They came out with a good gameplan which kept them in the game up until the point the referees, really an unforeseeable factor, whistled away any chance of victory.

I'm not ready to declare Clemson's NCAA candidacy dead. They still have time to turn it around but two things are clear now: 1) we have to win all four remaining home games (literally a tall task with FSU and GT yet to come to Littlejohn) and 2) there's probably no road game left on the schedule that will be easier than the trip we just made to Blacksburg. Given our relatively weak tournament resume, we really need to steal one of the final three road games to ensure a winning record in the ACC and an invite. I've been lobbying hard all season that the back half of our schedule is just as hard, if not harder than the front half because we struggled so badly last year against teams that share a general profile like FSU, GT, and Wake Forest. Our first game against GT this season was encouraging enough to give me some hope. But if we get shoved around by FSU and lose by five, its time to start the NIT countdown.

NC State Preview

Clemson vs. NC State, 01/16, 12pm, RBC Center

I’ve returned to earth after last Wednesday’s thrashing of the Tarheels. Great stuff, and worthy of extended celebration. Tigers get a chance to finally win a game after beating a ranked opponent in a game we really should win despite being on the road. NC State has earned the label of “hot and cold” team this year, supported by quality wins over Marquette and Florida State (last Tuesday) and head-scratching losses to a crummy Arizona team, Northwestern, and Virginia; the last two being home games and not particularly close. The Florida State game may seem like the strangest--if you’re a reader here you know that we think FSU has a chance to sweep Clemson in two games this season. So what happened? First, let’s get a general team profile of the Wolfpack.

All in all, I think the 2010 NC State team is fairly similar to the 2008 team, with their youth leaving them a little room to get better as the season goes on. Based primarily on this potential, I debated whether or not to include them in the bottom rung of the conference when sizing up the ACC. As in years past, they are a better offensive than defensive team (if only slightly this year). On offense, they lack any true “strength”, although they’ve managed to shoot the ball at around a league average clip--both the two and three-pointer. On the other hand, they turn the ball over. Not as often as UNC (or as often as us, for that matter), but it’s still bad enough to be a serious concern when you face a pressure defense. Javier Gonzalez looks like the weak link, coughing up the ball 27.5% of the time he handles the ball. While their turnover percentage is 'just' middling, like UNC they are dismal at having the ball stolen away. This implies that while they don’t make stupid mistakes like dribbling the ball off their feet, they are vulnerable to good defensive pressure. On defense, their FG% against is their most redeeming feature, although it is well-below league average, besting only Virginia, UNC, Boston College, and Clemson (coincidentally enough, 2 of the 3 teams we have already beaten). Meanwhile, NC State struggles to force turnovers and also has trouble keeping other teams off the offensive glass. We should be able to put up points in the half-court, even though it may involve fighting for second and third chances.

So how did they manage to beat Florida State on the road? To beat FSU right now, you need a tall three point shooter who can see over the defense and knock down threes, and you need to crash the boards. 6’7” freshmen named Scott Wood walked into Tallahassee averaging only about 7.5 points/game and shooting around 32% from three-point land. He left after putting up 31 points on 7-11 shooting from long range while his teammates did a phenomenal job of keeping FSU off the offensive boards, no mean feat when you are dealing with 7’1” Solomon Alabi, 6’9” Chris Singleton, and 6’11” Xavier Gibson.

All of this could spell some trouble for the Tigers, as they like to get on the offensive glass and we don’t defend the three exceptionally well. However, in basketball, one game shouldn’t be considered predictive of future performance. If Clemson can keep Scott Wood from landing on ESPN with another 30 point plus performance, we should be able to keep NC State’s offense more or less in check.

On the other hand, the Tigers can’t afford to be complacent. NC State’s not a particularly good team, we match up fairly well against them, and while it’s never easy to play on the road in the ACC, recently Raleigh doesn’t exactly have a reputation as a difficult place to play. A loss against the Wolfpack, a game that we’re rightfully favored in, would more than erase the benefits accrued in the UNC game. To put it another way, losing a game you are favored has a much greater affect on your expected win tally than a loss in a “toss-up” game. I expect Clemson to struggle considerably in Atlanta next week, but we should be able to handle the Wolfpack today.

Good Vibrations: For All Those Who Still Want To Believe

I havent been able to shake the utter disappointment from the Maryland game but I have found quiet hope and seen a glimmer of redemption in the simple fact that the Atlantic division is just awful this year. VT, GT, and Miami are superior teams right now--well lets hope GT is, and Virginia and Duke will beat someone in the Atlantic. So the point is that the winner of the Atlantic will assuredly have 2 losses but will more likely have three or four. So its going to be crowded and its going to come down to head to head records. Lets project two games into the future, shall we...

BC is the current front-runner--wait, the same BC we held to 50 yrds of offense and beat?? This is good for us bc BC plays/loses to VT this week and then plays NC State the next which is a toss-up. They will have at least two losses then, one of them to us!! We probably want State to win, bc the BC schedule then becomes the easiest of the remaining teams. NC the only remaining really tough game. So BC may have a 5-3 record in the conference 4-4 not out of the question.

Next threat is NC State--Tom O'Brien what is going on? They are 0-1 but a better team than they showed against Wake, probably the most dangerous team in terms of talent and coaching but lucky for us they have a tough schedule remaining--the play Duke this week and then BC the next but also have VT and NC. It would really help us if NC steps it up and can beat the majority of the Atlantic teams they play. I can easily see them being 5-3 or 4-4. Clemson needs to hold the tie breaker though.

Wake is very unpredictable. It seems to depend on the mood of Riley Skinner so I'm having a tough time placing them. They are 1-1 in conference and will play Maryland before playing us. If they beat Maryland we have to beat them but they do play Miami and GT which seem like two losses and an FSU team playing for Bowdens life so I think the losses will be there 5-3, 4-4.

Maryland is scary to me. They suck and we shouldnt have lost to them, but they have the weakest schedule in the division playing Duke and Virginia and then VT. Most teams are going to go 1-2 OOC but Maryland could go 2-1. We dont have the tie breaker so it feels more comfortable if they go 4-4, 5-3 spells doom. They play Wake and then Virginia so they could be 2-1 or 3-0 after next week.

Who would have thought we would be talking about FSU as the gutter dwellers of the pathetic Atlantic division. Things look even worse playing GT and at NC in the next two weeks. I dont think the 0-2 Noles are that bad a team but that loss to BC is mindbottling (thank you Will Ferrell), and I cant see them recovering to finish on top.

So there you have it. It looks like everyone is headed for 4-4 seasons. If Clemson can beat Wake, State, and FSU it can stand to lose to Miami and still come out on top. Unless Maryland gets crazy...

There is still hope Tiger fans and at least the defense is good. Can anyone imagine the absolute catastrophe this season would have been without CJ?? I mean its ugly enough already...

Natl Championship Possibilities

So I have been wanting to write this post for some time but I realize that if we dont win today we cant win the natl championship so I better write this now, especially since Hairston is doubtful to play.

Indulge me if you will as we collectively don a pair of bright orange sunglasses. We have a shot at a natl championship still. Its like less than one percent of one percent but hey, its still possible. Here is how...

We need Miami to be a legit contender--if they beat VT and Ok then they will be in the top four maybe top two or three since everyone wants Miami back so badly. If that happens we will play them at Miami and will be able to make a statement. If we beat TCU and the other teams handily we should be ranked at that point. That puts us in the top 15. We want FSU to stay with its one loss when we play them and that win puts us near the top ten. Then we beat a South Carolina team that is ranked--maybe they have a crazy year and then we are beating a top SEC team. But I hate them and hate if they do well so whatever. Then we want to play Miami again in the ACC Champs bc we will be their only loss. They should still be top ten by then, maybe even top five depending and we will then be a legit one loss team looking for the natl champs game.

Well for this to happen we need Big Ten pansies to lose two games and the real USC to fall again, probably Cal too. We need either Florida or Texas to win out and beat the other teams up or everyone lose one game and then we can sneak in as the second team. It wouldnt hurt if GT didnt suck the rest of the way too. Oh yeah and Boise State needs to bite it too. But other than that is looks like smooth sailing...(and you know what I half believe it could actually happen)

Quick MTSU thoughts, a look ahead

While I feel its my job to inject some pessimism into the blog, I'll save it for the GT preview. But I do want to post a couple of quick thoughts:

• After the MTSU game, I felt like a high schooler suddenly reassured that the varsity team can beat the J.V. team. I guess its all the Stockstill & Co. talk getting to me.
• As such, the end results don't mean much but there were some positives to take away from the game. On balance, I liked the play-calling on offense (yay power formations!) and I liked what I saw from Parker, raw but displayed some pocket awareness and also should move around enough to keep opposing defenses honest.
• While its not predictive of future performance (because we were playing MTSU), was that the best single-game special teams performance in, I don't know, the last five years?
• Despite looking horrible Saturday, I'm thinking it ain't a bad thing having a player like Willy Korn around as the backup QB.
• The real season starts this week. I agree with Clemben's post below, but I would extend the "make or break us" sentiment to the next two weeks. We have one game that tilts against us and another that tilts towards us (I'm not nearly as down on BC as some others are, it seems). Lose both and its a long climb back into division contention.
• Miami did us a real favor last night. I don't expect them to lose any "how did that happen?" kind of game this year, so every close loss for FSU is a big plus for Clemson. Its still way too early, but with NC State's (and to a lesser extent, Wake's) disappointing start, it looks like Clemson could really contend. We'll see come Thursday.

GO TIGERS!!!

CLEMSON ACC TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

(Atlanta, 03/12-03/15, ALL DAY!)

Aaah, the ACC tourney...a great warmup for next week's main event. I have to say, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament: best sports weekend of the year. It used to get competition from the three day bowl period around New Years, but the NCAA has pretty much ruined that by dragging it out over a couple of weeks. Thank you NCAA for not screwing up the men's basketball tournament...yet.

I haven't spent much time previewing Clemson's (hopefully first two) matchups because I don't think I can type much more about Georgia Tech or Florida State. I even touched on why we struggle against GT/FSU-type teams earlier in the week. One point to emphasize: the stakes are high for Clemson today/tomorrow. A surprise loss on the eve of Selection Sunday to a perceived bad team could drop us down to an 8/9seed of death. A couple of wins, though, would solidify a 6 seed, and maybe push us up to the 4/5 level.

I want let me be clear about one thing, though: despite this being a tough draw for the Tigers, both of these games are winnable. Against FSU, an extra bounce or a blown call or two going our way and we could have beaten them twice in the regular season. Unfortunately, if we bruise our way through two of the three tallest teams in the league, our reward will likely be North Carolina...and your going to see a tired Tiger team take on arguably the best team in the country. But hey, in basketball you just never know: Potter could drain 5 three attempts and/or Stitt could hang 30 points on his former favorite team. All I know is I'm glad its tournament time.

GO TIGERS!!!!!!!!!

CLEMBENTIGERMAX POWER RANKINGS: TEAMS

First a word of preface--yes its a little late in the season but we've been meaning to do this for awhile. These arent the actual standings but how good the teams are doing currently and RPI rankings, SOS, my opinion, etc.

TEAM RANKINGS

1. North Carolina-Although not the unbeatable juggernaut they were at the beginning of the season-the core of Ellington, Hans, and Lawson is formidable-especially with Lawson more motivated to pick up his game as the end of the season looms.


2. Duke-No I dont want Duke to be this high but I cant justify putting FSU or Wake ahead of them. Somehow Coach K has been able to right the ship. Clemson exposed their lack of athleticism but that Coach K can still coach and, unfortunately, still star in credit card commercials. I still think there are too many white players, especially ones named Paulus, to have a chance at a deep NCAA run. Second round defeat sounds about right.
   


3. Florida State-After their solid defeat of Clemson I want to put them as number two but just cant do it after loosing to Duke. They are slightly ahead of an uneven Wake team and despite the loss are clicking down the stretch at the right time.


4. Wake Forest-Perhaps the most lottery talent on one team in the country. At times they are absolutely dominant but at other times cant figure out how to share the ball and play without passion. Too much selfish play. Granted they beat on FSU the first and only time they will play but losses to GT, NC State and a poor showing at Virginia and Maryland give me cause for concern.


5. Clemson-My Tigers just cant seem to get the ball in to T-Book. This team has been overachieving all year and has had a rocky week but its been a great ride. Still capable of beating any team in the league and perhaps the country when they are on. OP can flat out coach and hopefully makes the right adjustments down the stretch.
   
6. Boston College-Rice is the heart and soul of this team but they can lack consistency as evidenced by their loss to NC State. Must win against BC to secure NCAA bid and must find some scoring help to ease the burden on Rice. Its funny how a lot of these teams primary colors are the same...
   
7. Virginia Tech-This season has been a disappointing one for me and I'm sure for Hokies fans. After being shut out of the NCAA's last year and coach Greenberg wailing and moaning about it I think its safe to assume we will be hearing more of it. Bad ref work cost them at Duke and maybe even NC but they have to beat FSU and win some games in ACC tourney or its NIT city. Still this is a more talented team than their record indicates.
8. Maryland-Gary Williams should be commended for the job he has done with this team. Watching them almost beat a superior Wake squad is why I love college bball over the nba anyday. David 'churchballer' Neal and the Grevis man a team that is as much about heart as it is about skill.
   
9. Miami-Welcome to Miami, home of the most disappointing team in the ACC. Projected by some to finish third, with the loss to GT I think we can say that barring a massive run deep into the ACC tourney they have punched their NIT ticket. McClinton is still amazing and can still take over a game but this team just cant find any semblance of consistency.
10. NC State-Someone needs to give Coach Lowe a clue. He is the most awful coach in the ACC and his teams reflect it. State has picked it up here at the end of the year, beating BC and will give Miami a hard rub but its hard seeing how this team is going to rise out of mediocrity with Lowe at the helm.
11. Georgia Tech-I'm not sure I've ever seen a team do so little with so much talent. Paul Hewitt has been giving the aforementioned Coach Lowe a run for his money as the worst coach in the ACC this year. This team has the talent and potential but cant put it together and if it were not for the stellar recruiting class coming to GT, I would think that Hewitt's days would be numbered, regardless he is on a short leash heading into next year.
12. Virginia-The fact that Virginia is on the bottom of this list speaks to the relative strength of the ACC, top to bottom-perhaps the best conference in the country. This team is all about Landesberg, Chad Ford even has him going in the first round if he declares, but not much is surrounding him. If he goes the team is done for next year and I dont see Coach Leitao weathering the storm for much longer. There is some young talent here but it still needs a lot of developing.