Where the Problems might lie: DE Edition

Every year I like to think about problem areas we are not focusing on and try to predict where potential breakdowns might exist on the team. Last year I think the area we were weakest at but no one was talking about was the Safety position, which culminated with our spanking by WV.

So where could it be this year? We know that the offensive line will be a question mark especially depth along the offensive line. So that isn't very interesting. Timothy Gifford seems to be stepping up potentially in the RT spot and as I predicted Thomas has moved to LT because you can't start two freshman tackles and not be really worried. Right now we need Kalon Davis and a tackle to step up but we really lack any proven quality depth. Remember last year we had two back-ups in Cloy and Smith who had played a lot of quality snaps in their careers. Can Norton step up? He has been less than stellar as a back-up center so far. Will guys get into shape?

What are we overlooking? I was going to write this last week but Coach Venables beat me to the punch (which is really encouraging because I think he has made some great personnel and coaching decisions already), by saying that the DE's need to improve. Last year we were not playing at the same level as in the past with the departure of Bowers to the NFL. Branch did a great job and was at times dominant but was not as strong against the run. Goodman was not very good. He didn't set the edge with any authority and had virtually no pass rush. A Batson victim, he has gotten to big and lost some of his speed and agility while at Clemson. As a Sophomore he was one of the first flying down the field making tackles on special teams. Now as the only returning starter he has a lot to prove.

Corey Crawford is going to start on his other side. In a back-up role Crawford did fine last year, especially as a true freshman but he needs to take the proverbial next step and has yet to show he is an every down kind of player. Our back-ups haven't really played yet. Very little competition to push the top guys. Vic Beasley is an athletic specimen who was on the offensive side of the ball his red-shirt year and was on the DE depth chart last year. He still has to learn to play the position. The reports say he is fine athletically and is developing technique but needs to get the defensive mentality. This is understandable since he never grew up playing the position. Byers and Dodd are are a red-shirt frosh and a true freshman. They need time to develop into back-ups.

What is the theme here? Lack of depth and susceptibility to injury. DE recruiting (and DLine) needs to be a serious priority in this cycle. It should have been more of a priority last cycle. I think we are looking good with TE's and WR's...We are bringing in Shaq Lawson and Martin Aiken this year who will be fine players but will need a year or two. We will probably end up burning one of their redshirts to provide depth. We need a top flight 4* recruit badly. Its the first time in probably 8 years we will not have a borderline 4/5 star DE on campus. Sapp, Bowers, and Goodman were all in this area with Merling, Branch, Gaines Adams, and others being low rated recruits who got drafted in the 1st/2nd rounds.

Other potential pitfall areas we aren't thinking about:

• Punter: Benton has positive reviews so far with Pinion a quality recruit to back-up
• Safety: Can Hall recover from the injury to return to at least his Soph year productivity, will Meeks learn how to take better angles. Do we have any depth after wasting Robert Smith's redshirt?
• CB: How much does the departure of Sensabaugh hurt our secondary. He was an every down player. Breeland was decent last year but Robinson took a step back. Blanks training at the Nickel is a big positive because Brewer statistically last year was picked on and below average. The Football Scientist uses Yards Per Attempt as a metric and according to YPA Brewer gave up 10.3 YPA which is horrid. Jenkins improved last year but it will be interesting to see how the types of players Venables uses in his scheme. More SAM backer with Lateek or a smaller Nickel back like Jenkins.

 A quick note on Venables: I love the move of Hawkins to WILL! Seems like Steele was worried about playing favorites or guys transferring because this should have been done long ago. Hawkins was never suited to play MLB and hopefully will benefit from the change. Anthony will be the most important player on defense this year. As he goes I think our defense goes. Not having a stellar line will put more pressure on our LB play. I love hearing Lateek Townsend's name being put in the mix. He is the kind of athlete that needs to see the field and it is positive to hear Justin Parker's career could still have some legs.

I like Venables decision to stick Blanks in the Nickel spot. If he can lock that spot down and perform well he gives us the flexibility to adjust to any offensive scheme. It is encouraging to hear the interior DLine coming along but I am always worried that it is more about our poor OLine play than DLine talent. Gotta love spring ball!

Road Schedule Analysis

Overall I think we got so royally hosed last year that this schedule is eminently more reasonable.  One thing to remember from last season is that we were a horrible road team (other than playing VTech).  The home crowd really made a difference I think against Auburn, FSU and Wake where if we aren't at home I don't think we come back. We were not great when playing Maryland, USC, NC State, and WV away from home.

So I am most interested in how we play on the road this year. How do we play in a dome against Auburn (is that effectively an away game?)? FSU seems tough but we did play well the last time at Doak losing on the most ridiculous FG I have ever personally seen, but the D-line was stout then too. BC shouldn't be a problem but new coordinators (and losing in Chestnut before when we shouldn't have) always leaves me more cautiously optimistic than confident.  We are at Wake with a 4 day turnaround on a Thurs. which should feel like a home game (and I hope we really make a push to fill that stadium with orange this year especially) but Wake has always been pesky.  Not sure what to make of their team this year either. 

*On an important side note, the admin has now agreed to Thursday night games?? I hope an intrepid reporter finds out if this is Dabo's doing or not. If that is true he is really becoming able to lobby the admin which I think is an overall good thing.  I've never been a huge fan of Thurs night games but the excuse of it putting too much strain on students always sounded a little contrived.  I do like the idea of the admin being pushed further to support athletics however.

So Wake will be tough but they have the same schedule as us with a 4 day turnaround, which is very fair.  This is one I will expect to win but will be on pins and needles.  I still remember needing the heroics of the late, great Gaines Adams to pull out a win on a blocked kick return, so I am not comfortable up there.  Then we get Duke on the road which should be a win and is a great team to have to play on the road. However it took an insane comeback to beat an equally pathetic, if not more pathetic Maryland team last year.  Then we end the season with three at home.

Our OOC schedule is nice this year with GT and VT at home and Duke on the road. Next year our OOC schedule should get even easier with VT coming off and adding Syracuse for an SEC team (but I am still hoping we get 8 conference games and lose GT as a natural rival just bc I hate the team needing to prep for the triple option every year and PJ is so smug when he wins).  If we could do last years schedule then we can certainly do this years.  I like that NC State is later in the year, so as to remind us of how we got complacent towards the end of last year. If we get through Auburn and FSU and can take care of home games and lesser opponents on the road then the season could be pretty special...

If only we had an O-line...and hopefully a D-line, we just might be able to run the table...

(and so it begins...)
 

ACC Freakin Champs

I just peeled an orange, ate it and then threw the peel at a Gamecock. It felt soooo good.

Great job Tigers! Steele saves his job and I hope we continue to play this aggressive. Dabo looks like a genius. The program is in the right direction (Bellamy, my friend, we need you...get your head straight over the break and stay with the Clemson family). Boyd ran hard and like a man. Sammy was amazing and the defense honored the legend Chester McGlockton. Great effort.

1st BCS Bowl, 1st ACC Champs in 20 years and 1st Orange in 30 years.

All IN ALL THE FREAKIN TIME! HAHAHAHA...I love it.

Willy Korn Has My Respect: Fire The Medical Staff

Everyone needs to read this story on Willy Korn. For the first time I understand. He was not soft. The Clemson medical staff should be fired for this. This is criminal and cost us a great leader and QB.  Heads should roll--I'm sure none of this was supposed to come out and has been buried, its seriously negligent. It also continues my concern with the Strength and Conditioning program.

This article really made me glad Spence is gone. You don't want a kid to get a medical redshirt because you want your QB's spaced out by two years--what stupid ridiculous nonsense is that?? Now let me be clear, the piece of the fractured collarbone that ends up in the AC joint is tough to catch. I would like to hear more from the medical staff on this before rushing to judgement on the Furman injury. Was an MRI done on the shoulder or just collarbone X-rays. The fact that he was instructed to throw right away reflect poorly on everyone. Coaches, staff, absolutely everyone. Diagnosing a fracture as a 'bone bruise' is beyond incompetent. Please tell me X-rays were at least performed. So I don't blame them for the chip but I do want accountability for the misdiagnosis. With Harper performing well, I don't understand why he wasn't shut down when he obviously had less arm strength and something was wrong. He came to Clemson with great mechanics and arm strength--I remember watching the Byrnes games. When he was so up and down that year--someone needed to say something. Instead you have an asinine Spence and (and perhaps Batson but this is more on the coaches and medical staff here) saying he is doing great. I get the feeling Spence didn't care for Korn, but that doesn't surprise me because he is an idiot who wasted years of having CJ Spiller and Jacoby Ford and James Davis running his garbage offense.

Second you have the GT injury which I do think manifests gross incompetence. After he is seriously injured in the game and can't throw on the sideline he is diagnosed again with a BONE BRUISE??!! How stupid can you be. You already missed the chip and fractured collarbone and now you just let him throw in practice for a couple of weeks before you find out he has a torn labrum?? Are you kidding me? He even played in a couple of games with the torn labrum in mop up duty. He could barely throw the ball 15 yards and we could all see it and no one thinks to do an MRI or have a real medical professional look at it. It ruined his mechanics, it ruined his shoulder. He had to go and lobby the medical staff because his dad told him to in order to have a second MRI done which magically shows a serious tear in the labrum. Knowing a little about this myself, if the tear is accurately described by the article as "the cartilage that keeps the ball at the end of arm bone in the shoulder blade's socket", then it is not only easy to spot but I think you would have to try hard to miss it!

And then they rushed him back for the Gator bowl after labrum surgery. At the time I thought it was crazy and it was not only crazy but selfish of the coaching staff too. I don't fault the coaching staff for anything else. Korn was promised he would play but his arm was nothing and when he went in you knew he couldn't throw it twenty yards downfield. It was like watching a worse Will Proctor. He had the worst throwing motion I have ever seen in a starting college football QB and that was kinda confirmed when Marshall didn't give him the starting nod. His arm and shoulder needed rest and time to heal. Glad he is doing well at North Greenville but I wish someone had the foresight to redshirt Willy so he could rest and regain his mechanics and arm strength. It is a tragic chapter in our recent Clemson history. This isn't the first time something like this has happened. (Ricky Sapp and Bowers knees?)

Fire the entire medical staff (I want a cleaning of house but would settle for some serious evaluations). And do it yesterday!

Yeah I Jinxed It

I let out a gut wrenching scream when Tajh let go of the ball and it sailed smoothly into the GT players hands, Watkins standing wide open on the goal-line. That was the visceral manifestation of a lost national championship. It was the sound of a lost national championship. I've never made that sound before in my life--I'm sure neighbors contemplated calling the cops. Having had a couple of days to reflect, however, it also marks the first time in my adult life that I have ever had a 'real' conviction that Clemson could be national champions. In the moment its awful but at least you can honestly say that you felt like a national championship was within your grasp. It has been an amazing ride and hopefully we still make it to the Orange Bowl.

On the less cheery side that has to be one of the most frustrating games I have ever watched. How hard is it to stop a QB running behind a dive back. Is it mobile QB's and pitches now? The fumbles killed momentum. The fourth and 1 conversion by GT was deflating after starting with 3 and outs. On offense we had drops on hot routes, receivers getting jammed at the line, and players coming up short on third downs. Our LB play was atrocious and the secondary didn't help them out at all. Hill just flat out dropped a TD and got that other huge reception. PJ basically said that they were running away from Brandon Thompson--why not instruct him to simply blow up the center every play. Stick Lateek right behind him and let him run around crazy headhunting for the QB. It would have been better than watching Christian out of position and blocked consistently (he is not having the year I thought he would after that nice Int. against FSU) or Hawkins six yards away from the line of scrimmage and just waiting, asking, pleading for an O-Lineman to block him and take him out of the play.

I think we are scared or unable to deal with cut blocking. We don't know how to shed a block to save our lives and its not pretty. I know everyone is calling for Steele's head but our problem wasn't really schematic. What is on the heads of the defensive coaches are safeties taking ugly angles to the ball, and the poor fundamentals of our LB's (which is Steele's coaching position), oh and the ever-present poor tackling. The LB play needs to improve in the next year or I will start to question our defensive coaching but Steele and company still have my vote. I love Coach Brooks and Coach Cheese but am worried about our depth moving forward. All of these guys have been in the system awhile though so hopefully the ship can be righted for next season. (haha...did you hear that--righted from an 8-1 record!! You would have called me crazy if I said that before the season)

One thing to note though is that we are not a good road team so far. VT was awesome but you saw some nerves and Maryland was ridiculous. I think this is something to pay attention to when we roll into Columbia. Dabo looked really tense at the beginning of the game too, didn't seem like his usual confident self (to be expected when you go down to GT). We were really choking though--the return of Cat man knuckle kick, the Hopkins drop/Allen drops, the high Boyd throws, and making a marginal QB look like superman all felt like last season.  But still when Rashard Hall intercepted the pass and got it to the five yard line I felt like we could do it. Then the yell/banshee scream...

At least I don't have to be jealous of USC and Alshon Jeffrey. Watkins catches passes in-stride like no other receiver I have ever seen...He still is working on becoming other-worldly in jump balls (right now he is just superhuman) but he is an absolute treat to watch. I would watch him if I wasn't a Clemson fan. One day I will write an 'Ode to the National Championship Lost' but for now I will stop rambling.

Clemson's Light Shines

Man...

How many of us when the score was 17-35 didn't believe...

I am physically tired, physically drained. In retrospect it was a thrilling game that I strangely enjoyed but only in retrospect. What a rollercoaster. So I have to ask the question, what have we learned??

The Defense still can't handle a running QB or the zone read. This reminded me of 2009 against Maryland where we couldn't stop the slowest QB I have ever seen run the zone read. I am sure Edsall saw the film and that's why they went with Wilson. It is partly scheme but more a result of poor Linebacker play (MLB specifically) and poor containment. We have to get this figured out for GT and South Carolina and Conner Shaw. We play better against more pro-style QB's I think. Maryland just steam rolled the D with tempo which is what let us back into the game. Ultimately we gassed them in the fourth though.

We learned that Watkins is human with the punt muff and then we learned we were tricked and that he was just disguising his superhero status. Watkins won us the game today. We finally got the return game going. I would like to see Bellamy back there on kickoffs. I don't think Brown has the speed.

Boyd showed great poise again. He seems to have one hair pulling stupid moment a game. The pass to Werner, last week it was another throw of the ball when he was sacked, and this week it was a pick 6 right to the DB Chism, I believe. Boyd threw two passes that should have been intercepted in the beginning along with throwing high and looking horrible. He settled and put together a great game. Made some pretty throws at the end.

We are really missing Benton. Lots of short kicks and our coverage teams need some serious work. Lateek is one of the only bright spots--this is both kick and punt coverage. Way too many returns to the 30-40 yard line. Got to get that fixed.

We had been 2-3 against Maryland in the last 5 games. I am thrilled to walk away with the win. Lets hope this builds confidence and keeps any thoughts of overconfidence at bay. Lets hope we can keep our legs for North Carolina but we need to do better tackling.

More thoughts later...I'm off to bed. Sleeping the sleep of victor's! Go Tigers!

Good Stuff from the Sangin Cowboys

Their Hokie walk thing is pretty lame. I love how they say we took them out back behind the woodshed...this is probably the funniest piece of college football humor I have ever seen in relation to Virginia Tech. Ok, its the only thing I've ever seen but I like it! I actually really appreciated the fan/tailgating perspective. Cows and barns!

Noel Johnson's Dad Leaves Clemson

Well this bites. First I am a fan of Noel Johnson as a basketball player (well as a player on this particular Clemson team). He couldn't play a lick of D or penetrate that well but he wasn't named Tanner and he has the height and ability to shoot the ball.

He didn't start the season and looked awful on the court until the past couple of games when he went from that guy on your pick up team who takes all the shots and thinks he's the man (but you were probably better off without him) to lukewarm milk. Donte Hill and now Sing Noel are gone. 9 players remain. With Booker and Grant not being able to stay on the floor we are going to be seeing a lot more Tanner, Jennings, and the frosh Stanton as well as *gasp* Narcisse and Bobo. I would gladly have TO (Terrance, Terrance) back, my goodness.

My goodness. So exploring all of our options I have a solution. DMac...He plays his senior year for the bball team and he lights it up. Won't happen because he will be trying to get ready for the draft. But it would be awesome...

Nuke--not happening and we really need wings not point guards anyway. Vic Beasley is an interesting option that could be explored.

We should also look into one of those early enrollment things--didn't Dawkins do that for Duke?? Get a kid after January? It would at least help with practice, redshirt and learn the system. We will certainly be needing a ton of help next year.

I think 8-8 in the ACC is looking more and more like a mountain to climb than an achievable goal. Tanner, please learn to shoot a 3. Jennings, rebound like a man (and shoot 3's). Booker--relearn those post moves you showed last year then forgot because Purnell put regression juice in all his new players diets. Do you remember how as a Freshman Stitt was like an 80% FT shooter?? Oh and everyone learn the motion offense.

A New Recruiting Anthem for Jeff Scott

There is nothing better for recruiting than having 2 of our newest members, Martin Jenkins and Darius Robinson, create a rap song about how much they love their school. This should be sent to all possible recruits. 21,000 viewings isn't shabby either. The season is finally coming. I don't think I can stand another puffy spring piece. Yeah we 'all in', ballin' or something to that effect...Go Tigers! (Oh and Haha!(Nelson voice) to UNC--thats what you get)(Oh and 11 walk-ons, I know Dabo you love the underdog and all but come on...)(Oh and we suck as bloggers but if anyone still reads this we will be posting again regularly now that the season is here)

Clemson/Oklahoma Weather Delay: Game Suspended

So we are delayed right now but Clemson really came out and took it to Oklahoma. This weather delay is bad news because Weissman was doing well and could have gone at least another inning if not two innings. Frederick pitched last night and he is the best in our weak bullpen.

So the game so far was showing the weakness of our defense--Miller dropped a ball that would have gotten the runner trying to steal second. That fatboy for Oklahoma can run--a bunt and chopped infield single, plus a nice run into the gap to take away a double.

The game turned because Oklahoma pitcher Shore lost his control and threw 14 straight balls. Oklahoma scored a run off of Weissman who has been giving up a lot of fly balls, not keeping the ball down enough but getting some strikeouts and swinging strikes to put together a solid start.

I also had no problem with taking that error by the Oklahoma outfielder because the Kyle Paker bomb was clearly a home run--give me a break...Do we not have someone else to play SS--31 errors, give me a break. I'm not thrilled with Epps as the DH, I guess they are protecting Lamb to use in the bullpen or starting but I don't know.

Worst moment of the game--a double steal?? Boyd wasnt even close at home and you take the bat out of Freeman's hands. A Busch League managing move, you have momentum-with 2 outs, risking Keiboom getting caught stealing with a man on third makes little sense and statistically doesn't improve your chances unless you are close to 80% sure he will be able to steal the base.

Anyway, I would imagine Lamb goes tomorrow but its hard to tell and really a tough break when you have that kind of momentum. We are up 6-1 but that can quickly disappear with our bullpen, although perhaps Frederick can now be used. Winning this game means we get two chances to try to get one win to be in the finals with probably UCLA but need to make 12 outs before we can think of that...(oh wait Im already thinking ahead...)

But I should really leave this on a positive note--we are up 6-1 and poised to put ourselves in the drivers seat for the Championship game...KP hit a blast, we chased another starting pitcher, and KieBOOM is more awesome than Bushytail....

Yah yah ya, haha, yuyuyu

This is my mood right now. Its bad lip singing but in Russian. Its like Clemson's season so far...somehow

South Carolina is Officially the Poor Man's SC

The real SC, the University of Southern California just beat South Carolina in a lawsuit over the use of SC. USuCk will not be allowed to use the SC letters that they have on their baseball uniforms. So the Trojans beat the Cocks. Feel free to add whatever innuendo you desire...but really I just blame the guy who thought that a Gamecock would make a good mascot. Really? It does represent the pinnacle in illegal cockfighting and gambling--something any SC, whoops, USC, whoops--I guess USuCk graduate can aspire to. The lawyer for SoCal said "that the letters were more deservedly linked to the Trojans' warrior image than to "a goofy little chicken."

That is just classic. Seriously Clemson should just represent the state of South Carolina and not some jailbird coots. Someone get a local congressman on this asap.

ACC Refs?? Are you Kidding Me? Halftime Contempt

What good is instant replay if it cant overturn a ball sitting on the ground. Thats the worst call I have ever seen, it was so obvious that the ball hit the ground before he moved the ball and had possession. What the heck is our vaunted defense doing?? Our CB's are playing awful getting beat left and right...Two of the best in the country allow Turner to absolutely shred them in the second quarter and then the slowest guy on the field, who isnt a runner is the new secret weapon?? What is going on...I want to see some serious adjustments at half.

On offense, WR's suck...Parker is getting rattled...he threw a great deep ball at the end of the half that the WR just watched get intercepted. Make a play on the ball...Our Oline is the one that cant keep from going offsides on two straight plays?? This is a classic lame game against Maryland--they have some weapons and they are putting it together against us, beautiful...

Dabo will have some serious questions to answer if they lose this game...mainly why he was hired and not Bud Foster DC at VT.

More Quick Thoughts on Noel Johnson

• Wooooooooooooooo!
• Clemben is more of the recruiting guru 'round these parts, but I'm just going to say it: Best. recruiting. class. ever.
• While I stand by my earlier statement that the team was actually slightly better without TOgglesby, before the news about Johnson I had been mulling over the loss of height resulting from his departure. As we talked about ad nauseum here during the season, Clemson really struggled against tall teams, particularly with delivering entry passes into the post. The thought of losing another 5 inches with the 5'9" Andre Young (relative to the 6'2" Oglesby) on the court had me concerned to say the least, although I would argue Young has the potential to be the better passer despite his height. But with the 6'7" Johnson on board as well as the 6'4" Donte Hill, we suddenly could be causing some match-up difficulties of our own next season.
• Notice I didn't mention Tanner Smith. While I love his grit and he's got a great story, after watching him fade with the tougher competition last season I'm hoping we are now assured of a significant drop in his playing time. He just looked lost on the court after ACC play started. Now, if he finds that 3-point stroke we heard about as he was coming out of high school, that's a different story...
• Its good to hear about Johnson's shooting abilities. While I think we would have been more or less fine with some combination of Young, Smith, Potter, and Jennings taking 3s (with the occasional contribution from Booker Sr.), Johnson has the potential to again make our 3-point game something the opposing team will have to specifically plan for.
• Come to think of it, with the bulk of our talent arguably in the front court this season, why is everyone so worried about the 3-point game anyway? As long as it's around league average (a good bet in my estimation) and we can get the ball inside, I think we'll end up with a stronger offense than last year. And that's saying something for 16th best offense last year in Division I.
• Obviously, I'm still on a high after hearing the news. But there will be growing pains for this squad with so much contribution expected from the rookies. In other words, I don't think we'll get through the non-conference schedule undefeated. We'll have stupid lapses (10:1 this is related to sloppy ball-handling) that cost us games. But for once, the upside of the squad is such that we can actually expect the team to get better as the season progresses.

Weekend Baseball Observations

After blowing the first game against OK St. Clemson needed to win three straight games to advance to the SuperRegional and they have won two of those, needed only to beat OK St. once more tonight to move on. Its tough to play the same team three times but thats the position Clemson put itself in. So a quick rundown of the games for those who missed it.

In the first game against Tenn Tech we almost blew it. We had a runner on second in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings and couldnt advance any runners. Kyle Parker along with the offense in general had been struggling somewhat sinve the ACC tourney and it bled into the tourney. Delk really struggled giving up four runs early. It took some heriocs on a double by Schaus down the first base line to plate two runs and win the game 5-4 in the 9th. It was good to see Addison Johnson come in and get a pinch hit single to key the rally. Graham Stoneburner come on in relief and pitched a gem, pretty much saving our bacon. Losing the first game in these double elimination things is really tough so its good we came through with that one.

In the first OK St. game, Harman pitched seven perfect innings but then gave up two consecutive solo shots that put the Tigers down 2-0. Which was a shame bc he really was pitching nicely. Clemson in the eighth showed their first sign of life scoring two runs on four consecutive singles off of the starter Oliver. We had runners on second and third (and all the momentum in our favor) with one out and Schaus goes and strikes out and then KP pops up to end the inning. We then made two bad defensive plays, really bad. Boyd basically misses the ball in CF and then Paulsen let a ball bounce off his glove, even if he knocks it down he prevents the run scoring from second. Tough couple of plays and McCurry in relief for the Cowboys was lights out.

We blanked Tenn Tech 10-0, Weismann going eight innings and then exacted revenge on 15-1 against Ok St., with Dwyer going eight innings as well. So the starting pitching with the exception of Delk has been superb--I mean awesome. It wasnt considered to be our greatest strength going in but we have been very good. The offense has finally come around but that is against second and third tier starters, not the best pitchers on the teams. I think it was a good move by Leggett to pull Parker from the lineup, albeit a tough one and he has some serious decisions to make about who to start in this last game, the two freshman Weismann and Dwyer looked good after stuggling a little towards the end of the season--perhaps fatigue. Leggett said he was favoring starting Hinson, which wouldnt be a bad move going forward.

I think tonights game comes down to who Ok St. starts. If the start McCurry will he be able to handle the work load. If he is fresh then its going to be another nailbiter and we dont want to be in a close game with Ok St. relying on their stout relief pitching.

I wanted to recommend and thank MRBO on justintv.com for broadcasting the games. Check it out if you want to watch the games streamed. I think we are the best team in the regional and it would be a shame to finish so early, Go Tigers! Beat those stinking Cowboys!

Vacation Had To Get Away

So I thought I quickly clarify for you all why we have been MIA for a little while...both of us have been on vacation. Hawaii is a nice destination but without the tubes that connect you to the internets it can be tough too post. But we are back and better than ever--couple new things to look forward too--soon we are going to be starting a weekly feature called BETTER KNOW A TIGER...an in-depth interview with a Clemson Tiger each week...check back for one with the Beast from Bamburg soon...also some recruiting updates and way too early predictions...for now we relish in our championship Rowing Championship!!

STATE OF CLEMSON BASKETBALL: 2008-2009 end-of-season update

Again, with these posts I'm mostly interested in trying to discern any statistical trends in Clemson's play, and see if they are trending in the right or wrong way.

In the ACC season midseason update, I showed this chart plotting the division I rank of Clemson's adjusted offense and defense efficiencies as calculated at KenPom.com:

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Aaah, the good old days when things were looking really good. Defense efficiency was more or less holding steady in the top 30, and you can't be unhappy with the offensive efficiency trend. Unfortunately, here's what the same plot looks like now at (post-)season's end:

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I think there are two ways of interpreting these charts: 1) the first chart was a result of an extended statistical fluctuation that overvalued Clemson's defense, and the second chart is actually a closer approximation of Clemson's true talent level for the season. 2) Something happened midway through the ACC season, whether it be team chemistry-related or the league suddenly discovering how to break Clemson's defensive scheme, causing Clemson to play dramatically worse on defense the remainder of the season.

I tend to favor the latter interpretation for several reasons: 1) twenty-two games is probably enough data to give you a pretty good measure of the team's talent level, 2) I think there are obvious adjustments the rest of league made that we've pointed out on the blog before, and 3) subjectively I think we can all agree that Clemson just played like a different team in the second half of the ACC season, putting forth a much "sloppier" effort over the last 8 games and the postseason.

At any rate, to dig a little deeper into the defensive decline, I plotted some of the component defensive statistics over the years since Purnell has taken the helm. First, how the defense fared against the four factors of opposing offenses. The four factors (effective FG%, turnover%, offensive rebounding%, and FT attempts) were determined by Dean Oliver as the most important factors in predicting basketball success:

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Right away we can can see where Oliver Purnell's defenses have made their mark: forcing turnovers. Clemson has consistently been amongst the best in division I at forcing turnovers since Purnell took over. The other difference between 2008 and 2009 that jumps out at me is the slight rise in effective FG% against rank. At first glance it might not seem like much, but what this chart fails to capture is the relative importance of each factor. As it turns out, FG% is by far the most important factor, generally twice as important in determining success as the turnover% and also about twice as important as offensive rebounding% and FT attempts combined. In other words, a rise in FG% against is twice or four times as bad as comparable increases in the other factors.

Looking deeper still, we can break the first two factors down a little more by looking at 3-point and 2-point FG% against, as well as steal% and block% against:

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Here we again see some Oliver Purnell staples: steal% ranking in the top ten in division I and block% typically ranking in the top twenty or so. We can also possibly see a little more of the problem, the sudden jump in 3-point% against increased rapidly. This may have been negated somewhat by the drop in 2-point% against, but again, the 3-point% would probably have to be weighted as more important. Now, its true that the 2007-08 team was superhuman at guarding against the three, so we could have expected some regression coming into this year based on previous performances. But this is clearly the worst 3-point% against since Purnell took the helm.

One last chart to look at, this one breaks down how teams scored their points against Clemson into the percentage of points from the 3-point, the 2-point, and the FT shot:

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Here we see the total percentage of points coming from 3-point shots taking a larger chunk of the points we gave up over the course of the year. This doesn't mean that we gave up more points, it just means that teams appear to have been looking more to the three point shot to put points on the board against our defense.

While none of the above three charts are particularly convincing on their own, I think they all add up to a pretty strong argument that Clemson's defensive struggles were directly related to a much poorer 3-point shooting defense. While this is worrying, it takes more than one point to indicate a trend. Definitely something to watch for next year, however, because over the course of an entire season that kind of 3-point defense could land us back in the NIT.

Raycom Sucks

Well we lost again...that was another pathetic display. I love that Rivers has a chance to cut it to 2-yes, with 12 seconds left--2, but he throws it away. This is indicative of the type of game it was. We hung in there in the second half but just played like a team that didnt belong with the big boys. We had a chance when we cut it to two and had some bad calls that all went Florida St. team.

How is it that this team is committing so many turnovers?? I saw Rivers, the senior leader, make some truly ugly passes--to Oliver Purnell...Is it late season fatigue, is it the weight of expectation crashing down? I really think we play our best when the pressure isnt on us to have to win. Against Wake we played tentative, scared and committed turnovers partly bc the pressure was on to "arrive" and that carried over to the NC game. The first FSU and the VI games were just lack of execution down the stretch but when we played our best games againt Duke and Maryland we had no pressure and played like it. I think we came in scared to play this game.

Our team has to learn how to feed the post. Booker was getting manhandled and doesnt do a good job of setting himself on the block enough, but you cant really fault him going up against the most athletic 7' 1" giant I have seen in awhile. That block he had on Stitt when Douglas fell down was amazing, my jaw dropped. Speaking of Stitt, down by five with a minute to go and you foul Douglas, one of the best FT shooters in the league?? Pure genius...

Can the ACC not get anyone better to broadcast these games?? I find it amusing, sometimes even hilarious, to hear some drunk FSU fan yelling "Terrance, Terrance" and "I knew it" when OP and Booker fell into each others arms. Tell Raycom to buy better equipment or sell the contract. We are at least the second best league in the country and we are stuck with Raycom?? So we had to win, and we lost--goodbye first round bye, hello fifth seed in the NCAA tourney...

Virginia Tech Loss-2 Steps Back

So the game is over and I really felt like we were going to pull it out in the end and force it into overtime. While this game shouldnt have been so close statistically, I think some teams play you tougher-some coaches just have your number. The press killed us tonight, and VT hit their threes. I thought we didnt execute very well at all down the stretch and should have listened to Hubert Davis and his annoying voice telling us to get it into Booker on all those plays. Run some high screen and roll for him, iso, something...

We should have fouled right away and not let those precious eight seconds tick away. Could have tried a two and fouled again and I hate that twice now we could only put up a desperation three that was more an attempt to get fouled than make a three. TO did that in the Virginia final game too. Missed a lot of opportunities there inside four minutes and I'm mainly frustrated with how Stitt played in that time--seriously bricking a wide open three and not converting or creating for teammates on the dribble drive, this isnt going to help with his confidence problems. Poor execution, poor half court offense--bad trends going forward, poor ESPN2 loss on the homecourt...more to come later after the initial frustration subsides some...

Getting Down Early--Clemson Postseason, Early Exit, Prevention Strategies?

Just read this piece by Greg Wallace on the Tigers feeling they have to be prepared for tonights game but I was impressed by the discussion at the end by Purnell and TO about the need to start quicker. Purnell goes so far as to say:

“It could be personality, could be how good the league is, how good the teams are. I haven’t given up on us finding a way to get out of the gates faster. We have done it a few times this year but not nearly enough. I’ve seen the other side of that coin many times, us falling behind."

His new idea is to get the guys sweating more before the game and have more structured warm-ups. I like how Purnell isnt afraid to try new motivational strategies to help Clemson compete at an optimal level. So I thought I would add in a few ideas of my own, please feel free to add to the list...

• First I think one of the main reasons we fall behind early is because teams are ready and prepared for the press. They are able to execute early and later get worn down and create the majority of the turnovers. No stats to prove it but it would be nice to see if there was a correlation. So my thought is to mix up different looks for the press early. Still being aggressive, still pressing, but not giving up so many transition baskets early. Once the game progresses then turn up the heat.
• I think you need to get more dribble penetration early. The team often becomes tenative, tries to get the ball to Booker and then starts launching threes. The way to mitigate some of this is getting primarily Stitt and Rivers to drive and break down the D more. This should result in some easy looks for Booker and Grant/Sykes. Obviosuly you have to keep going inside to Booker as much as possible but early you need some points driving to the basket.
• Last I would suggest running more specific set plays in the first five minutes. Clemson has been lightyears ahead of last year in their halfcourt offense but running some more backdoor cuts or even an alley-oop--something set to your best players...Thats all I got so far--its a tough question but one worth exploring heading towards the postseason. Please feel free to contribute...