Brief Coaching Analysis: Part 1 Al Skinner

So TDP out is interviewing coaches which is good because we need to get this done and have a coach take back control of this program. Thornton is asking to be let out of his LOI which will happen but he is not against returning to Clemson(although he better understand that he is not going to be allowed to go to another ACC school--thats just standard LOI practice, everyone, everywhere does it). So the first thing I want the new coach to do is go and park his car outside the Thornton home and stay there until the ink dries on his LOI to Clemson.

Next I want him to drive to Union and the home of the Booker's to stroke the ego and let Devin know he will be a focal point of the offense. I was going to write a post about how I hate it when players whine about playing time as freshman (especially when they play more on average than any other freshman and even start a couple of games) but truth be told D Book is our only legit back to the basket post presence and if someone would teach a guard how to throw the ball into the post he could do some damage. No one else will...Bobo?? Grant is a nice complimentary post player and has made great strides but will struggle as the main offensive post threat.

So lets look at who has interviewed thus far. We begin with Al Skinner.

#1 Al Skinner--Fired recently from BC, he has the most wins in BC school history. He is immaculately dressed all the time. At home he sports a tie and on the road a turtleneck or sweater combo (but never a tie on the road). He seems to never wear the same suit twice in a season. I'm not even joking.

His offense is really boring. He played for the ABA Nets team with Julius Erving. He runs a Flex offense where cutters cut across the floor. You may remember the offense from watching your local high school bc it is what the majority of teams run because its pretty simple and gets everyone moving. What BC did nicely was to really pack in the floor making it a very physical game. Learning how to set screens is something Clemson players have never learned so that would be a welcome change.

My feeling right now with Skinner is that we could do worse. He knows how to coach fundamentals. His teams have done alright in the past--he coached some good Rhode Island teams in the 90's to the tournament (the 2nd Round!!) and his Dudley teams at BC were good making it as far as the Sweet 16. But they have been lackluster this past year and losing seasons in 2 of the past 3 seasons doesn't sit well. It seems that Skinner has lost some of his passion for the game, he has never been an amazing recruiter. I think he develops the talent he has adequately though. He has never recruited much directly in the south and he is not young. I feel at this point that he is a fallback after we shoot a little higher.

Clemson Already Struggling

We are about six/seven minutes into the game and Clemson is already failing. Tanner Smith just threw the ball to the other team, the offense is just five guys standing around. Potter gets two stupid fouls--one just running into the forward on offense. Oh and Stitt is dribbling so loosely I could steal the ball...

Things got to change and quick...

A&M at the Half: That wasnt very pretty

If this is the real Clemson team then we are in serious trouble this season and are vastly overrated. I saw a lot of garbage play in this half. This Trevor Booker playing the three position who shoots outside jumpshots and plays passive defense needs to stop. He needs to be on the block, drawing the double team and occasionally stepping out to stretch the d.

Our press has been fine and we havent been able to set it up much but our halfcourt D has been porous and frankly pathetic. We are not rotating to defend the three, we are a bunch of passive wimps on the boards and not rotating for backside help. I think it has to do with freshman playing tentatively and playing like they are in high school.

On offense--I like Tanner Smith as a player, as a glue player but when he is your primary offensive threat then you are in trouble. He doesnt finish around the rim or rebound with enough authority yet. Grant disappeared and Young was not his usual proficient self. We really dont have the three point shooting right now to consistently stretch the defense. The loss of Oglesby is looking like a bigger deal all the time. I was surprised that we didnt look as athletic as I thought we would.

Bottom line is I dont think we are nearly this bad, A&M is nothing special I am afraid and if we cant win this game then we need to re-evaluate this season and lower expectations. Of course, this is a young team and we obviously have a lot of work to do. I have said this would be a work in progress year but I didnt think it would be starting at such an elementary level...

3 BBall Questions

So we are underway with the Clemson bball season and after watching the Presb. game I find myself returning to three key themes for this season. I know its a trite formulation but here are 3 Keys (more like questions though) for the early season. Right now I really think UNC and Duke are overrated and that this is our best season to date for winning the ACC. We are picked to finish third and no team below us scares me too much--Wake has Aminu, GT has potential and FSU has an athletic giant, but none of the teams above us strikes any fear. Duke has no guards and problems against the press (Scheyer and Singler playing almost the whole game, every game??) and UNC is the shell of its former self. They play Ohio St., Michigan St., Kentucky, and Texas in the next month or so. After that tell me if they will take the ACC??

So what must Clemson do to improve enough to win the ACC--I think the Liberty game will be a good gauge for how far along we are, how far we need to go. This team will be a work in progress all year, so we need to treat it as such--there will be some growing pains. The key is how we improve in these areas
1. Ball Handling/Turnovers--This is really about whether or not Stitt progressed enough this off season to be the explosive player we need him to be. We need him to be able to drive the lane consistently and dish. I thought he was getting there last year till he hurt his ankle and that slowed him a bit all year. Look for Andre Young to step up if Stitt stalls.
2. 3pt Shooting/Identity--We need to have Smith and Johnson or even Potter be able to consistently knock down threes this year. But I am concerned with the identity of this team. Even without TO we could rely too much on the three because we still cant pass the ball into the post enough. Booker has always been stalled by inept guards unable to pass him the ball. That has got to change, and thats a tough thing for Freshman to do.
3. Rebounding--When Booker is motivated he is the best rebounder in the ACC but he will need some help. Grant needs to elevate his game to be a stronger rebounder insider. Sykes ended up doing a good job for us as well as Rivers but we need some of the freshmen to step in. Booker Jr. and Jennings will be called upon. I am really disappointed that Bobo Baciu has not progressed much, thought he would be that tenth guy to come in and provide some rebounding and defense but it hasnt materialized yet. With the press and all the 3's we just need to stay even with teams but we cant play soft and have a weak mentality that I am afraid is the result of tentative freshman play.

Booker and the Stress Fracture

To piggyback on the latest Sporting Gnomes post--isn't it interesting how basketball news is lighting up the Clemson blogosphere on the eve of the football season?

Anyways, the news about Booker has me a little more worried than what I'm reading in other quarters. First, unlike Oglesby, there's no replacing Booker's output. Second, while a low grade stress fracture in the foot should heal relatively quickly, they also tend to linger if not properly treated. Treatment basically consists of Tylenol and staying off the foot until no pain is felt. Here's a nice write-up of a 10-year study done at the University of Minnesota. The study outlines a general strategy for getting the foot back to full strength after a stress fracture. I think there's one key quote in the article relating to the strategy:

..."if you have a patient who you believe is intelligent enough to understand the negative consequences of noncompliance, then I think you could use this."

I'm sure Booker is "intelligent enough", but he's also an extreme competitor who won't likely take to the removal of several weeks from his training regimen. Let's hope he sees the long-term benefits of accumulating a little rest now...

More Quick Thoughts on Noel Johnson

• Wooooooooooooooo!
• Clemben is more of the recruiting guru 'round these parts, but I'm just going to say it: Best. recruiting. class. ever.
• While I stand by my earlier statement that the team was actually slightly better without TOgglesby, before the news about Johnson I had been mulling over the loss of height resulting from his departure. As we talked about ad nauseum here during the season, Clemson really struggled against tall teams, particularly with delivering entry passes into the post. The thought of losing another 5 inches with the 5'9" Andre Young (relative to the 6'2" Oglesby) on the court had me concerned to say the least, although I would argue Young has the potential to be the better passer despite his height. But with the 6'7" Johnson on board as well as the 6'4" Donte Hill, we suddenly could be causing some match-up difficulties of our own next season.
• Notice I didn't mention Tanner Smith. While I love his grit and he's got a great story, after watching him fade with the tougher competition last season I'm hoping we are now assured of a significant drop in his playing time. He just looked lost on the court after ACC play started. Now, if he finds that 3-point stroke we heard about as he was coming out of high school, that's a different story...
• Its good to hear about Johnson's shooting abilities. While I think we would have been more or less fine with some combination of Young, Smith, Potter, and Jennings taking 3s (with the occasional contribution from Booker Sr.), Johnson has the potential to again make our 3-point game something the opposing team will have to specifically plan for.
• Come to think of it, with the bulk of our talent arguably in the front court this season, why is everyone so worried about the 3-point game anyway? As long as it's around league average (a good bet in my estimation) and we can get the ball inside, I think we'll end up with a stronger offense than last year. And that's saying something for 16th best offense last year in Division I.
• Obviously, I'm still on a high after hearing the news. But there will be growing pains for this squad with so much contribution expected from the rookies. In other words, I don't think we'll get through the non-conference schedule undefeated. We'll have stupid lapses (10:1 this is related to sloppy ball-handling) that cost us games. But for once, the upside of the squad is such that we can actually expect the team to get better as the season progresses.

Is Oglesby Replaceable? Absolutely.

ESPN link, looks like its all but final.

I hate to toot my own horn here, but this is what I wrote after the NCAA loss:

None of this touches on Terrence Oglesby. All season I have tried to hold my peace on his extreme lack of poise. But after tonight, I have to wonder out loud if he will be back on the team next year. Purnell must be seething right now, not just about the intentional foul and ejection, but the overall sloppy play leading up to it. I think Oglesby is a valuable role player when used in the right way, and he even has some upside suggesting he could be something more, but last night makes you wonder if someone else can't do the same job without bringing the same baggage.

ClemBen touched on it below, there must to be some exchange between Purnell and Oglesby after the tournament that precipitated this. Parsing through Purnell's quotes, it almost seems that while he is surprised about Oglesby playing in Europe, he's maybe not so surprised he's playing elsewhere.

So the big question is: how does this affect next year's team? I've heard the word "game-changer" so much in the last 24 hours you'd think he single-handedly sparked every run the Tigers have had in the past two years. For the answer, look no further than Kenpom.com and the listed individual offensive efficiencies on the Clemson page. Offensive efficiency (a stat pioneered by Dean Oliver) is essentially the number of points a player is expected to produce per 100 possessions. In 2007-2008, Oglesby put up a not-too-shabby 116.2. His 2008-2009 campaign was down a little bit at 110.9, good for fifth-best on the team. Who was fourth-best on the team? None other than his replacement-in-waiting, Andre Young (sporting a 112.4 mark). That's right, in albeit significantly less playing time (but still enough playing time to not consider it a fluke), Andre Young put up better numbers than Oglesby--and this only considers offense! The difference in defensive abilities alone might have warranted benching Oglesby next year in favor of Young, but he also managed to at least equal him on offense. All of the terrible turnovers, the ball-hogging madness, and crazy shots off out-of-control drives killed Oglesby's effectiveness, and made the less flashy but more solid play of Young the better all-around performance.

Its really not hard to believe--the Tigers are a better 2009-2010 team than they were 24 hours ago. Here's hoping Oglesby follows through and hires an agent.

Should I Stay or Should I TO??

So Rivals.com is reporting that Terrence Oglesby (aka the Great Norweigen Hype) has signed to an agent and is going to play ball overseas this next season. Well first I got to say thanks--thanks a lot for sticking with your team and not leaving them with a huge gaping hole at shooting guard next year. Thanks a lot for not wanting to learn to play better defense and play within a the flow of a system. Thanks for acknowledging that you have a lot to learn before you are anywhere close to a complete player.

I know a lot of people are going to wish him well and talk about all the happy times when he single-handedly brought us back to win games and that is all true but allow me to be the angry guy in the room who says--thanks a lot jerk...yeah its harsh but come on--way to leave your team. As a starting guard on a repeat NCAA team, TO was being counted on to provide some leadership--to mature and keep improving his game. So first the positives we will miss--TO is probably the purest shooter we have had at Clemson in at least ten years, he hits FT's, and he can unleash a barrage of 3 pointers at any time in a game. Thats about it I think.

Negatives?? Mediocre defender, very little mid range or to the basket game, sometimes had a bad attitude, took stupid shots whenever he wanted, took a lot of stupid shots, would go very cold, would try to dunk and make the team look stupid.

He was a good player--not great, who showed flashes and could have improved. Obviously he was going to play minutes but I have a feeling he is leaving bc he didnt want to deal with the competition coming in and the possibility of being competely benched didnt sit too well with his ego. I wonder what his relation is with Purnell, obviously not that great if he was so eager to jump ship--puts a lot of pressure on Donte Hill to perform and Milton Jennings to be a legit outside 3pt threat. This doesnt change the outlook for the season but we may not start as strong as we could have. As far as I am concerned the more often we get the ball to the Booker Brothers inside the better off we will be as a team. Bye TO, it was fun to yell at you through the screen...

Looking Forward

As I said at halftime of the Michigan loss...it was going to take me awhile to stomach this loss. So after a brief hiatus I think it is time to appropriately lay this season to rest(cue the music). So we need to begin to look forward and what team we can expect in 2010.

First I want to be clear that this is not some Gamecock exercise in looking toward next year because the current year sucked and you have nothing else but to look forward. This was a better than expected season. I repeat THIS WAS A BETTER THAN EXPECTED SEASON!! Coming into the season we were an unknown and for most unproven commodity. Most believed our run to the ACC Championship was a aberration at best, most considered it more of a fluke. So the line-up was not going to be as good defensively without Mays and would lack the leadership, ball handling , and shooting of Hammonds. The season depended on the emergence of Booker and Stitt. Booker was not the manbeast last year like he was this year, and that was due mostly to getting into foul trouble too often especially on the back line of the press (same problem Grant had this year). Booker was the reason this year was a success as his rebounds, points, and blocks were all up. Its true he faded(I think he got tired) and got more frustrated towards the end of the season but when guards cant throw you the ball in the post, you deserve to be a little frustrated. He single handedly brought Clemson back to almost beat Michigan. I love that he is coming back and will hopefully fast-track the education of his little brother, T-Book was a solid performer his freshman year--lets hope his brother will be even better.

So Booker was better, and the team did not take a step back--maybe they didnt take a step forward but not much was expected in the beginning of the year--to go 9-7 with a chance to reasonably go 10-6 or 11-5 in the last week...I think any of us take that at the beginning of the year. We had ACC title hopes and were a projected 4 seed, now obviously we performed the classic Clemson fade and fizzled with another winnable loss in the tourney but we had a good season, a building season. One of the measuring sticks is in recruiting and I think this season helps to continue the improvement of the caliber recruit we are bringing in to Clemson.

So in the spirit of moving forward we are going to breakdown the team by position to look at where we stand in regards to next year and beyond. The three recruits we have coming in are solid--and thats not just through orange colored glasses.

The Tigers Come to Kansas City

Being a Tigers fan living in Kansas City has its distinct disadvantages. Foremost among them is the fact that you are nowhere near anywhere the Tigers play. Once in a great while the sports gods shine favor in your direction and send the team right to you. This is one of those times. The team has been sent right to my Kansas City to play in the Sprint Center arena in round one of the tournament, and yours truly has scored tickets (even though it is “sold out”) and will be at the game to take it all in. For all of you who are too far away from here to join, I understand your loneliness.

Of more importance to most is information on how the team is doing here. I am sure you are all aware of the official team video diary and reporting on the trip here in Kansas City. What isn’t well known is that Clemson held their private, closed practice today in the Associate Gym on the Cerner Corporation campus. The sports gods must really be pleased with me because I just so happen to work for Cerner. I was able to observe the team from outside the court, through the glass today. My overall impression of them today is that they look to be relaxed. I watched as they worked plays, ran sprints, stretched, and loosened up after their travels here yesterday. They looked to be upbeat and not visibly stressed about tomorrow’s game. Coach Purnell and his staff were observing, but not pushing the team very hard today. This was undoubtedly more of a warm-up practice to get loose and ready for the public practice they had this afternoon in the Sprint Center.

Unfortunately, I did not have my camera with me today (I wasn’t expecting them to be at my work). They will be back tomorrow for another practice, and I hope to get a few shots of the team. I will provide as many pics as I can during tomorrow night’s game as we power through Michigan for a victory


GO TIGERS!!!!!!!

CLEMBENTIGERMAX POWER RANKINGS: TEAMS

First a word of preface--yes its a little late in the season but we've been meaning to do this for awhile. These arent the actual standings but how good the teams are doing currently and RPI rankings, SOS, my opinion, etc.

TEAM RANKINGS

1. North Carolina-Although not the unbeatable juggernaut they were at the beginning of the season-the core of Ellington, Hans, and Lawson is formidable-especially with Lawson more motivated to pick up his game as the end of the season looms.


2. Duke-No I dont want Duke to be this high but I cant justify putting FSU or Wake ahead of them. Somehow Coach K has been able to right the ship. Clemson exposed their lack of athleticism but that Coach K can still coach and, unfortunately, still star in credit card commercials. I still think there are too many white players, especially ones named Paulus, to have a chance at a deep NCAA run. Second round defeat sounds about right.
   


3. Florida State-After their solid defeat of Clemson I want to put them as number two but just cant do it after loosing to Duke. They are slightly ahead of an uneven Wake team and despite the loss are clicking down the stretch at the right time.


4. Wake Forest-Perhaps the most lottery talent on one team in the country. At times they are absolutely dominant but at other times cant figure out how to share the ball and play without passion. Too much selfish play. Granted they beat on FSU the first and only time they will play but losses to GT, NC State and a poor showing at Virginia and Maryland give me cause for concern.


5. Clemson-My Tigers just cant seem to get the ball in to T-Book. This team has been overachieving all year and has had a rocky week but its been a great ride. Still capable of beating any team in the league and perhaps the country when they are on. OP can flat out coach and hopefully makes the right adjustments down the stretch.
   
6. Boston College-Rice is the heart and soul of this team but they can lack consistency as evidenced by their loss to NC State. Must win against BC to secure NCAA bid and must find some scoring help to ease the burden on Rice. Its funny how a lot of these teams primary colors are the same...
   
7. Virginia Tech-This season has been a disappointing one for me and I'm sure for Hokies fans. After being shut out of the NCAA's last year and coach Greenberg wailing and moaning about it I think its safe to assume we will be hearing more of it. Bad ref work cost them at Duke and maybe even NC but they have to beat FSU and win some games in ACC tourney or its NIT city. Still this is a more talented team than their record indicates.
8. Maryland-Gary Williams should be commended for the job he has done with this team. Watching them almost beat a superior Wake squad is why I love college bball over the nba anyday. David 'churchballer' Neal and the Grevis man a team that is as much about heart as it is about skill.
   
9. Miami-Welcome to Miami, home of the most disappointing team in the ACC. Projected by some to finish third, with the loss to GT I think we can say that barring a massive run deep into the ACC tourney they have punched their NIT ticket. McClinton is still amazing and can still take over a game but this team just cant find any semblance of consistency.
10. NC State-Someone needs to give Coach Lowe a clue. He is the most awful coach in the ACC and his teams reflect it. State has picked it up here at the end of the year, beating BC and will give Miami a hard rub but its hard seeing how this team is going to rise out of mediocrity with Lowe at the helm.
11. Georgia Tech-I'm not sure I've ever seen a team do so little with so much talent. Paul Hewitt has been giving the aforementioned Coach Lowe a run for his money as the worst coach in the ACC this year. This team has the talent and potential but cant put it together and if it were not for the stellar recruiting class coming to GT, I would think that Hewitt's days would be numbered, regardless he is on a short leash heading into next year.
12. Virginia-The fact that Virginia is on the bottom of this list speaks to the relative strength of the ACC, top to bottom-perhaps the best conference in the country. This team is all about Landesberg, Chad Ford even has him going in the first round if he declares, but not much is surrounding him. If he goes the team is done for next year and I dont see Coach Leitao weathering the storm for much longer. There is some young talent here but it still needs a lot of developing.
    

Virginia Post-Game Ramblings

Stats by StatSheet.com

It was good to finally play a decent half of basketball. Virginia is not that good of a team and this game shouldnt have been tied at the half. Their star Landesberg had an atrocious night but a win is a win and as we get set for a showdown against Wake. But it may not matter that much bc everything that would have helped us last night didnt happen.

A quick rundown:Duke beat FSU and Wake pulled it out against the Terps. Duke cant be caught now-if they had lost to FSU and NC, we pull ahead with a win against Wake bc we own the tiebreaker. Not going to happen so we need FSU to loose to Virginia Tech and we obviously have to beat Wake. Tough road to the ACC bye despite church baller Dave Neal's best efforts.

A few notes from last nights game.

• The above chart shows how many turnovers we are committing. We were yet again, another turnover factory in the first half. Hard to figure out how to correct it, our post players cant get position and our guards dont have the patience or presence to know when not to force it and pull it back and when to give T-Book the rock. I'm sure that OP has been stressing getting the ball inbounds but this leads to the younger guys (Tanner Smith, looking at you) forcing it too often. I loved an inside/outside play with Booker and Young that led to an open three from Young. If only TO could learn to do that...
• Sykes is left so wide open that I cant wait to have Milton Jennings not let defenses collapse the way they do.
• Potter fouls a whole lot. I know he is playing bigger men but he commits a lot of stupid fouls. Good to see OP give him a nice chat about it on the sideline.
• In the beginning of the second half OP went full court man to man, thought it was one of the reasons we went up big. Good to see we might be thinking about not living and dieing by the press. Dont get me wrong, love the press, but I love a diverse selection of pressures even better.
• Rivers needs to step it up and not throw the ball into the stands-Sykes made some truly awesome dunks and four straight FT's, quite a senior night...