Following up on yesterday's post wherein I tried to counter some of the prevailing wisdom out there in TigerLand, I decided to look at how many times Clemson has blown a "significant" lead this year, and compare that to the number of times they have overcome a "significant" lead. I set the threshold at 10 points. That's a completely arbitrary number, it would be better to look at total points scored and have some kind of sliding scale where less than 10 points might be significant in a low-scoring game and more than 10 points would be significant in a higher-scoring game. But I haven't got that kind of time right now and 10 points is useful as a quick proxy. I might have missed a game or two (let me know if you find one), but as you'll see, it doesn't matter much:
Number of games Clemson has led by 10 or more points and lost this season: 2 (Illinois, Maryland)
Number of games Clemson has trailed by 10 or more points and won this season: 1 (Butler)
Yep, that's a whole lot of collapsin' by the Tigers right there. Like I said yesterday, I'm not sure where this notion comes from, but there's no basis for it in the numbers. Looking back over the game logs, I was actually pretty surprised at how infrequently we've played games where there were a lot of lead changes--the times we've lost this year we've typically trailed throughout and the times we've won we've led more or less from start to finish. Of course, there are occasionally runs by the opposing team to make things closer, but that happens to every team in college basketball.
Now to the preview:
Clemson vs. Florida State, 02/28, 5:30, Donald L. Tucker Center
No one needs to be told how important this game is to the Tigers. I've become more and more convinced that Clemson is going to struggle mightily against Georgia Tech on Tuesday because 1) GT is, at this point, a seriously underrated team that's played a conference schedule with the same degree of difficulty as Clemson and 2) Clemson will be coming off a 2 days rest vs. three days for GT. As laughable as this might have sounded just a few weeks ago, Clemson's easiest path to 9 wins might be to win at both FSU and Wake Forest. Translation: we have our work cut out for us.
I don't have a lot to add to the last FSU preview. The short version: our defense matches up well with their offense because they feature one of the worst turnover rates in the entire country (not just the ACC) while we run out one of the best turnover-causing defenses in the country. On the other hand, FSU's defense is better than our offense, right now ranking #1 against the inside shot and #8 in the country in effective FG% against. Their weakness, however, is defending the three, in which they are markedly below ACC-average. Teams that have beaten them this year, including us, have made lots of three-pointers. FSU also struggles to keep other teams off the offensive glass, which, given their height, is kind of baffling.
This is a game where I would absolutely expect the Tigers to run the press all evening long. Don't give FSU any breathing room, because every possession is a turnover waiting to happen. One possible complication is whether Oliver Purnell wants to try and hold back some to ensure we have any energy on Tuesday night against a GT team that also frequently turns the ball over. Unless we're down by an absolutely unwinnable margin, I wouldn't recommend it, because this is the kind of game that could turn in our favor quickly even if we are trailing by double digits at some point. Against GT you just hope that Senior Night provides enough adrenaline to fuel our insanely energy-expensive defensive pressure.
I would look for FSU to try and limit Clemson's three point looks by leaving Alabi 1-on-1 against Booker. I was really surprised that FSU continually collapsed on Booker when he got the ball in game 1 at Littlejohn considering how Alabi manhandled Booker by his lonesome last year. I think that was a real key for Clemson, they got a lot of good three-point looks I wasn't counting on going into the game with the inside-out play of Booker. As far as adjustments go, this seems like a no-brainer for FSU to at least try at the beginning of the game.
If Clemson can shoot the three ball at a roughly a 35-40% clip, get a few easy putbacks from Booker/Grant, and force the expected amount turnovers, they can win the game. If not, its going to be a slog. GO TIGERS!!
Showing posts with label Leonard Hamilton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Leonard Hamilton. Show all posts
Sunday, 28 February 2010
Thursday, 11 February 2010
FSU Recap
Clemson 77, FSU 67
Renewed hope! Not because I think last night was a "turning point" or some other sports journalism buzzword, but because we gave ourselves a nice postseason boost literally providing relief and hope for the fanbase.
I'll wouldn't call the Tigers performance dominant last night, even if they clearly gave the appearance of being the better team. I think they were still pretty much the same Tigers team we've seen--struggling with turnovers and relying heavily on their opponent to be sloppy with the ball. The primary difference tonight? The three pointers were falling, and they were falling early (decent FT shooting didn't hurt, either). That coupled with the 3-point assisted run at the end of the first half put the Seminoles in a difficult position; FSU is not a team well-designed for mounting a double digit comeback. Their lack of outside shooting and their relatively slow tempo had them pressing in their play from the outset of the second half. To the chart:
(I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
Clemson was comfortably ahead through most of the second half, handily fighting off a couple of mini-runs the 'Noles made.
The overall gameplan was relatively simple from Clemson's perspective, they looked for the three early and often to try and counter the FSU's tough inside defense. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of the first threes were fired up by Potter, Booker, and Jennings; all tall guys that could see over FSU's perimeter height. When they started falling, that opened up the inside a little bit, and I'll take this opportunity to thank Devin Booker for putting up 14 points in 17 (!) minutes (c'mon coaching staff--give this guy some more minutes...) The offense even showed good discipline when dealing with the FSU zone, I think it made it even easier for Clemson to execute their gameplan with Young and Stitt patiently searching for seams to penetrate halfway before kicking out for decent three-point looks when the defense collapsed on them. I'm not sure why Leonard Hamilton stuck with the zone for so long in the second half when it was pretty clear it was working in the Tigers advantage. On defense Clemson kept the press on most of the game, aware of FSU's proclivity for turnovers. I think this was a shrewd coaching move, it made it even more difficult for FSU to mount a comeback when they kept giving up the occasional possession.
As I mentioned in the preview, this game was important because it gives us our first real indication of how well Clemson will play against tall teams with exceptionally good defenses, the general profile of teams that gave us fits last year. I think Clemson showed it could handle a lot of the fundamental problems that bothered them last year, including finding clean passing lanes and shooting over the perimeter defense. Additionally, this was the first time Clemson performed well against a team that excels at limiting the opposing teams FG%. All in all, a very good sign as we move into the last six games of the season.
As a cautionary note, though, Clemson can't rely on David Potter to go 4-5 from three point land and also I thought the FSU didn't play with a lot of intensity, particularly in the second half. It still won't be easy to knock off FSU on the road or to beat another similar team, Wake Forest, on the road. But at least for now Clemson is back on track for an 8-8 ACC record, trending towards a 9-7 finish.
Renewed hope! Not because I think last night was a "turning point" or some other sports journalism buzzword, but because we gave ourselves a nice postseason boost literally providing relief and hope for the fanbase.
I'll wouldn't call the Tigers performance dominant last night, even if they clearly gave the appearance of being the better team. I think they were still pretty much the same Tigers team we've seen--struggling with turnovers and relying heavily on their opponent to be sloppy with the ball. The primary difference tonight? The three pointers were falling, and they were falling early (decent FT shooting didn't hurt, either). That coupled with the 3-point assisted run at the end of the first half put the Seminoles in a difficult position; FSU is not a team well-designed for mounting a double digit comeback. Their lack of outside shooting and their relatively slow tempo had them pressing in their play from the outset of the second half. To the chart:
(I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
Clemson was comfortably ahead through most of the second half, handily fighting off a couple of mini-runs the 'Noles made.
The overall gameplan was relatively simple from Clemson's perspective, they looked for the three early and often to try and counter the FSU's tough inside defense. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of the first threes were fired up by Potter, Booker, and Jennings; all tall guys that could see over FSU's perimeter height. When they started falling, that opened up the inside a little bit, and I'll take this opportunity to thank Devin Booker for putting up 14 points in 17 (!) minutes (c'mon coaching staff--give this guy some more minutes...) The offense even showed good discipline when dealing with the FSU zone, I think it made it even easier for Clemson to execute their gameplan with Young and Stitt patiently searching for seams to penetrate halfway before kicking out for decent three-point looks when the defense collapsed on them. I'm not sure why Leonard Hamilton stuck with the zone for so long in the second half when it was pretty clear it was working in the Tigers advantage. On defense Clemson kept the press on most of the game, aware of FSU's proclivity for turnovers. I think this was a shrewd coaching move, it made it even more difficult for FSU to mount a comeback when they kept giving up the occasional possession.
As I mentioned in the preview, this game was important because it gives us our first real indication of how well Clemson will play against tall teams with exceptionally good defenses, the general profile of teams that gave us fits last year. I think Clemson showed it could handle a lot of the fundamental problems that bothered them last year, including finding clean passing lanes and shooting over the perimeter defense. Additionally, this was the first time Clemson performed well against a team that excels at limiting the opposing teams FG%. All in all, a very good sign as we move into the last six games of the season.
As a cautionary note, though, Clemson can't rely on David Potter to go 4-5 from three point land and also I thought the FSU didn't play with a lot of intensity, particularly in the second half. It still won't be easy to knock off FSU on the road or to beat another similar team, Wake Forest, on the road. But at least for now Clemson is back on track for an 8-8 ACC record, trending towards a 9-7 finish.
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