Miami Recap

Clemson 74, Miami 66

I thought the intensity was there, which was probably my biggest concern given the weather conditions dampening attendance, the win over FSU, the two-and-a-half day turnaround, desperation from Miami, and did I mention there was snow on the ground? I guess we have to give credit to the coaching staff, 'cause we need something to blame when the team comes out and inexplicably plays flat. To the chart:

NCAA Basketball

The game was close throughout, even though I felt strangely confident that Clemson was going to win. Despite some (jarring) lapses, they just seemed to have the advantage on both sides of the court, particularly having a better defense. I don't need to tell you that the best team doesn't always win a college basketball game, but for some reason I wasn't worried even when Miami fought back to tie the game at 40/43 or when they trimmed the lead to 67-63 with 47 seconds remaining.

I don't usually show the following kind of chart, because it's usually not that informative when viewed in the context of a single game, but it really tells the story of yesterday's game:

NCAA Basketball

(I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)

This plots the "four factors", which have been established as the statistics that contribute most strongly to determining victory. Clemson has the slight edge in offensive rebounding and turnovers, while Miami has a small edge in FG% (remember, this is effective FG%, which gives extra weight to making a three point shot relative to a two point shot. It also perfectly demonstrates why focusing on simple FG% is misleading, because while Miami has a more decisive 52%-45% advantage for simple FG%, the advantage shrinks to 59%-57% when you account for Clemson's extra two three-point shots on three extra attempts) (as a side note, it turns out both teams shot the ball pretty well yesterday). The real story is in the final column, where Clemson absolutely killed Miami in FT rate. Even though FT rate is the least important of the four factors, when you see one bar favoring a team by that much, its a good bet they've put themselves in a position to win. I went back and checked the same chart from the Virginia Tech game and it's actually really similar. The advantages for the first three bars are narrow and divided between the teams, but VT has an astounding advantage in FT rate.

So I guess in a way Clemson got one back from the refs. The game would have been a lot closer without the 31-17 advantage in FT attempts, not to mention Clemson unexpectedly sinking 25 of their attempts. At the same time, this is latest in a series of decent to above-average performances from the line for Clemson. A lot of this is driven by T. Booker finding his shot, picking up some of the slack he let was responsible for by missing so many shots from the stripe at the beginning of the season. In addition, I like seeing this result because it makes sense: Clemson had an advantage underneath, so they attacked inside and ended up picking up a lot of fouls and subsequent points from the line.

This won't happen in every game because the inside advantage won't be there. But it's good to see Clemson conscientiously playing to the weaknesses of their opponents. One more win next Saturday against Virginia and Clemson will be back playing in a position of strength at least for one game, trying to steal an upset on the road at Maryland.

**One quick note: it was good to see Tanner Smith playing after what looked like a potentially serious injury in the first half. We don't hide our contempt for Tanner Smith much on this blog, but at the same time we probably don't give him enough credit for his improvement in defense. I think at this point the gap in performance on defense between him and a freshmen like Johnson or Hill is large enough to more than negate any difference in offensive performance. Moreover, Smith at the very least provides some decent-quality depth, something the team is not exactly brimming with right now. None of this may be true by next season, but for now Clemson couldn't really afford an injury to Tanner Smith.