Gauging Clemson's NCAA Odds on Paper

Every year, I run a simulation of the NCAA tournament based on Kenpom.com's offensive and defensive effeciency ratings. I went over the methodology in some detail last year, so I won't cover it again. I'm no professional when it comes to these things, it's just something I do every year for fun. Like last year, I'll share what the simulation says regarding Clemson's chances of advancing into each round, alongside the 2008 and 2009 tournaments. Each number represents the percentage of times that Clemson reached a given round out of a million simulations. Keep in mind, this method is based only on the stats--only a part of the story in basketball. It doesn't take into account, for example, how teams match up in terms of strengths and weaknesses. As a result, Clemson ends up with a much better chance of advancing past Missouri based on statistics alone than I think is actually warranted when looking at the actual matchups, which I touched on briefly in the last post.



Clemson's odds of reaching the last two rounds ends up closely mirroring last year, but reaching the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 is a considerably more difficult task as we are up against a much stronger slate of teams. And how about those odds in 2008? Pretty painful to ponder what could of been, given that gift of a second-round potential matchup with Vanderbilt. I haven't seen odds anywhere close to that good for a 5 seed in the last three years...