Clemson vs. Wake Forest, 03/07, 6:00pm, Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Yesterday's results make this an all-or-nothing event for the Tigers. A win gives us the three seed by merit of a better combined head-to-head record (2-1) in the tiebreaker with Virginia Tech (1-1) and FSU (1-2). A loss drops us all the way to the six seed, as we would be tied alone with the Wake Forest team that just beat us. I don't think anyone can understate the importance of this game. I honestly don't think Clemson has much of a chance at an ACC tournament run given that we match up so poorly this season with the league's best teams, Maryland and Duke. But a couple of wins and a good showing in a third game has the potential to vault us into a six seed in the NCAA tournament--as semi-arbitrary as the ACC tie-breaking system is, don't underestimate the value of the tag "third-best team in the ACC".
About the actual game. As I've mentioned in the last previews, Clemson closes out three straight games against opponents with a strikingly similar general profile: turnover-prone, reasonably-poor shooting, and offensive-glass dominant on offense with a well above-average defense driven by effective FG% against numbers that are the envy of teams across the nation. In fact, Wake ranks #1 in the country in effective FG% against percentage. This is why I generally feel that WF poses the toughest matchup for the Tigers out of the final three teams--unlike FSU they defend the 2- and 3-point shot equally well and they are also better at holding onto the ball relative to both FSU and GT. Despite this, it's fair to see Clemson as the mild favorite given their performance in the last two games, and their additional victory over FSU earlier this season.
Clemson also has other factors working in their favor in this game. On defense, WF does not defend against the offensive rebound very well. They also, unlike FSU or to a lesser extent GT, do not force turnovers. Finally, Wake Forest is considerably worse than either FSU or GT at shooting the ball on offense. I think this game will come down to who does a better job keeping the other team off the offensive glass and who converts more second-chance opportunities around the rim.
I'm hopeful that Wake, mathematically eliminated from the first-round bye and on the tail of a four game losing streak now starting to threaten their NCAA tournament plans, will come out dispirited. Unfortunately, senior night has a way of reinvigorating teams. Clemson will need to absorb the emotional high that Wake runs out, calmly reminding themselves they are the better team. I expect they can then start slowly asserting their will on the Demon Deacons, hopefully aided by the voluntary unraveling of Dino's squad as they see their post-season start slipping away...
GO TIGERS!!
No comments:
Post a Comment