Georgia Tech Preview 2

Georgia Tech vs. Clemson, 03/02, 8:00pm, Littlejohn

I feel like I could just re-write the FSU preview, replacing FSU's name with Tech and that would leave everyone with a pretty good idea of what to expect in the game. In fact, all of Clemson's final three teams fit the same general profile: tall teams that play excellent defense, primarily driven by holding the opposing team to a low effective FG%. None of the teams feature a world-beating offense; their offense is held up in part by their ability to snatch up offensive rebounds and is dragged down by an abysmal turnover rate.

If we look a little more closely at GT vs. FSU, Tech is a slightly better offensive team and slightly worse defensive team. GT is considerably better at defending the three but not quite as good as the incomparable FSU defense against the two. On offense, they shoot the ball better primarily because of their three-point shooting, which relies quite a bit on freshman Brian Oliver, shooting around 41%.

All in all, I like this matchup slightly better than the FSU matchup for the Tigers. We have a better chance to score inside with Booker (our strength on offense) and we should still force plenty of turnovers on defense. Given that we nearly pulled off the upset in Atlanta earlier in the season and that we have played well against teams with this profile, on paper this is a game that Clemson should be considered moderate favorites.

But I'm too busy worrying about external factors to take any comfort. Clemson is playing their third game in seven days and second game in three days. The game on Sunday was an absolute bruiser in which they kept their pressure defense on for the entire 40 minutes. In order to beat GT, they'll need a comparable effort on defense, pushing the fullcourt pressure all night long to force as many turnovers as possible. I'm not sure they'll have the legs for it. On top of that, GT is (perhaps unfairly) playing for their post-season lives and maybe for their coach's job. (As an aside, I'm surprised there hasn't been more Hewitt/hotseat talk. I thought he was given another season because of the recruiting class he was bringing in. But outside of the blogs, I haven't seen much on the subject from traditional media. Maybe everyone is just tired of talking about it year after year.) GT is only coming off three days' rest, but it was their first game in a week. They will be fresher and they will be ready to play.

I think Clemson really needs to avoid a slog this time, they won't have the fortitude to pull the game out at the end like they did in Tallahassee. They have to find offense in the early going, build something of a lead, and hope that they can hold off GT as their defense falters along with their legs in the last ten minutes. GO TIGERS!!!