Virginia Preview

Virginia vs. Clemson, 02/20, 4:00pm, Littlejohn

Virginia has come crashing back to earth after a flukish 5-2 start that saw them beating up on the likes of N.C State, UNC, and Miami. All in all, take away a home win over Georgia Tech and I suppose the home victory over UAB and Virginia has beaten bad teams while managing to lose to some bad teams in the process (Penn State, Auburn, Stanford). They have now lost four straight, the last a 69-50 stomping at the hands of Florida St. at home. On top of all this, it will be Virginia's fourth game in the last eight days. Virginia will likely come into Clemson demoralized and tired, which should make for a relatively easy seventh conference win for the Tigers.

That being said, our defensive strength should be largely ineffective against the Cavalier offense tomorrow afternoon. This year our defense has been powered almost exclusively by an ability to force turnovers, and the Cavs have been the tenth least likely team to turn the ball over in the country. On the other hand, the Cavs have not shot the ball well this season, particularly from inside the arc and they also do a poor job of getting on the offensive boards or getting to the FT line. They do shoot the ball well from the FT line; as such, Clemson would be well-advised to staunch their recent trend of sending teams to the line frequently over the course of a game.

The good news is Clemson's halfcourt defense should be able to at least keep the Cavalier offense in check without the typical batch of turnovers caused by pressure defense. Clemson has defended the three extremely well this season, which should blunt the best weapon Virginia has and look for them to play a little less aggressively inside to force Virginia to make their field goals instead of risking the foul.

Ultimately, though, Clemson will have to win this game with their offense. I think this will not be much of a problem. Virginia's strengths on defense come from limiting second-chance opportunities and keeping teams off the foul line; they struggle considerably in defending the shot, particularly the three. Clemson should more or less have its way inside and outside, although we shouldn't count on Jerai Grant adding ten points on clean-up duty.

As an interesting side note, Virginia has been the beneficiary of the best FT% against rate in the country. Teams are averaging less than 60% from the line when they play Virginia, suggesting that their defensive numbers are actually even worse than they appear and they still have more room for regression.

A well-played game by Clemson should result in a easy victory. I don't expect us to hold Virginia below 60 points, but look for us to push 75. GO TIGERS!!!