FSU Recap

Clemson 77, FSU 67

Renewed hope! Not because I think last night was a "turning point" or some other sports journalism buzzword, but because we gave ourselves a nice postseason boost literally providing relief and hope for the fanbase.

I'll wouldn't call the Tigers performance dominant last night, even if they clearly gave the appearance of being the better team. I think they were still pretty much the same Tigers team we've seen--struggling with turnovers and relying heavily on their opponent to be sloppy with the ball. The primary difference tonight? The three pointers were falling, and they were falling early (decent FT shooting didn't hurt, either). That coupled with the 3-point assisted run at the end of the first half put the Seminoles in a difficult position; FSU is not a team well-designed for mounting a double digit comeback. Their lack of outside shooting and their relatively slow tempo had them pressing in their play from the outset of the second half. To the chart:

NCAA Basketball

(I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)

Clemson was comfortably ahead through most of the second half, handily fighting off a couple of mini-runs the 'Noles made.

The overall gameplan was relatively simple from Clemson's perspective, they looked for the three early and often to try and counter the FSU's tough inside defense. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of the first threes were fired up by Potter, Booker, and Jennings; all tall guys that could see over FSU's perimeter height. When they started falling, that opened up the inside a little bit, and I'll take this opportunity to thank Devin Booker for putting up 14 points in 17 (!) minutes (c'mon coaching staff--give this guy some more minutes...) The offense even showed good discipline when dealing with the FSU zone, I think it made it even easier for Clemson to execute their gameplan with Young and Stitt patiently searching for seams to penetrate halfway before kicking out for decent three-point looks when the defense collapsed on them. I'm not sure why Leonard Hamilton stuck with the zone for so long in the second half when it was pretty clear it was working in the Tigers advantage. On defense Clemson kept the press on most of the game, aware of FSU's proclivity for turnovers. I think this was a shrewd coaching move, it made it even more difficult for FSU to mount a comeback when they kept giving up the occasional possession.

As I mentioned in the preview, this game was important because it gives us our first real indication of how well Clemson will play against tall teams with exceptionally good defenses, the general profile of teams that gave us fits last year. I think Clemson showed it could handle a lot of the fundamental problems that bothered them last year, including finding clean passing lanes and shooting over the perimeter defense. Additionally, this was the first time Clemson performed well against a team that excels at limiting the opposing teams FG%. All in all, a very good sign as we move into the last six games of the season.

As a cautionary note, though, Clemson can't rely on David Potter to go 4-5 from three point land and also I thought the FSU didn't play with a lot of intensity, particularly in the second half. It still won't be easy to knock off FSU on the road or to beat another similar team, Wake Forest, on the road. But at least for now Clemson is back on track for an 8-8 ACC record, trending towards a 9-7 finish.