Virginia Tech Preview

Clemson vs. Virginia Tech, 02/06, 4:00pm, Cassell Coliseum

Sorry for the lack of comment on National Signing Day, definitely not my area of expertise, however. I know ClemBen had an opinion or two, but it looks like he's fallen off the grid again. My relatively uninformed perspective is that we did a good job overcoming a shaky start to the recruiting season, at least in part validating one of the primary reasons Swinney was hired.

Anyways, back to the basketball season. This time last season, VT was just kicking off a disastrous second half ACC schedule, which saw the team revert to 2006 form after two straight years of being fringe NCAA tourney contenders. The main culprit for their collapse last year was the absence of defense, specifically the complete inability to force any turnovers. This year, however, the Hokies appear to have transformed the defense, reaching back to the lofty heights achieved in 2007/2008. And yes, they are once again fringe-NCAA contenders. I actually like this this year's VT defense better than the 2007-2008 versions, its more balanced. They don't do anything particularly well, but they don't have any exploitable weaknesses, either. They do tend to send teams to the line a little too often, but if anything this should help them against Clemson.

The good news about this balance is that VT doesn't excel at limiting the opposing team's FG%, which seems to be something we have really struggled with this year. They aren't bad at defending the shot (and notably, they are about as good outside as inside), but this isn't like playing Duke. Unfortunately, they are also reasonably good at inducing turnovers, which is bad news for Clemson. I would caution that while VT is getting turnovers, they aren't getting too many steals. This could indicate that they've been getting a little lucky and will see some regression as the season goes along. Frankly, given VT's track record of not forcing many turnovers, I would weight this possiblity rather heavily. Also bad news for Clemson: VT can keep opposing teams off the offensive glass. Look for Jerai Grant to vanish again after two consecutive "breakout" games.

So why isn't VT a shoe-in for the NCAA tournament? Well, that's the good news for the Tigers--on offense, VT is a markedly below average ACC team. They have Malcolm Delaney and, well...that's about it. They simply cannot shoot the ball and have a worse three-point percentage than Clemson. The bad news for Clemson, though, is VT doesn't like to turn the ball over and also pounds the offensive glass, two factors that will work strongly against our defense.

Before I really sat down to think about this game, I like Clemson's chances quite a bit. I was anticipating a Maryland-like game where both defenses try their hardest to keep the other offense from finding a rhythmn and we end up with a close, low-scoring affair. But now I am much less confident of Clemson's chances. We just don't match up well with the Hokies, particularly their strength in offensive rebounding. Additionally, we won't have any stupid turnovers from VT to help bail us out of the times we lose possession after throwing the ball away. In order to win, I think Clemson will need to slacken the press and concentrate on shutting down their offense in the half-court. We have the capacity to limit their point total by playing hard in the half-court. In fact, we've often gotten into trouble against VT because we play the press for too long. Let's see how Purnell plays this, but if VT is scoring early and often after breaking the press Clemson will find itself in quite the early hole and without the proper offensive tools to find a way back into the game.