CLEMSON 2009 NCAA TOURNAMENT: First Thoughts

By now everyone has had a chance to pore over the brackets and formulate a few first impressions. My initial reaction: I think its a fantastic draw for Clemson. I'm sure the selection committee looked at our four losses in the last five games and used that to justify the seven seed (but hey, we avoided the 8/9 seed of death). One thing to keep in mind, though, is Clemson just played 5 of their last six games against two of the top five tallest teams (in terms of effective height) in division I, and another team ranked 28. These same teams were all ranked in the top 30 in effective defense. Clemson players must be looking at Michigan's below average height for division I and 67th ranked defense and breathing a sigh of relief.

Looking quickly at the broader picture, of the immediate 8 teams in Clemson's draw none fall in the list of the potential matchups of doom from the last post. In fact, this is probably the most wide open group of 8 teams in the tournament this year--I don't think you can choose an overwhelming favorite. Just look at the Kenpom rankings for the top four teams:

12. Arizona St.
15. Syracuse
17. Oklahoma
22. Clemson

Now I know Kenpom has underrated Oklahoma all season relative to other ranking systems (most of which peg OU at a 10-13 rank), and also Oklahoma has the advantage of playing close(r) to home in Kansas City. But I think the takeaway here is Clemson's got more than a fighting chance to come out of this group. I had been harboring hope for the last several weeks that they might draw Oklahoma, as they seemed to be the best matchup for Clemson of all the teams likely to land a one or two seed. Now, if they do manage the miracle run to the elite eight, they likely run into one of two brick walls: Gonzaga or North Carolina (if by some unlikely chance they get through, Illinois does not present a very appealing matchup either). I plan to run some simulations of the tournament in the next day or so, and I'll let you know how Clemson fares, but I'm holding out hope that they have better odds than other 7/10 seeds.

The bad news, though, is that none of these 8 teams are a perfect matchup for Clemson; each team seems to play well to a Clemson weakness of some kind. For example, Michigan is superb at handling the ball. This is clearly not good for Clemson as Fight Tigers astutely pointed out in a recent post--to be most effective, Clemson's defense really has to force turnovers. I'll try to take a closer look at the Clemson-Michigan matchup before Wednesday.

A couple of random, half-formed thoughts from quickly looking over the bracket:

• I cracked a malicious smile when I saw BYU's eight seed. It seems no matter how well they fare, they just can't break out of the 8/9 seed. But as much as I hate to admit it, they have a halfway decent team this year and I think this turns out to be a really bad draw for UConn in the second round.
• Most under-seeded team: WVU. I know they don't have the record, but they could do some damage from the sixth seed. Runner-up for me is probably Gonzaga.
• Most overrated: Michigan State? In other words, what Dave Cameron said.
• Biggest surprise inclusion: probably Maryland. I have a hard time getting worked up about the last two or three teams in, most of the time these teams lose in the first round anyways. I just mention Maryland because I happen to have seen them a few times this year, and I each time I thought: NIT material. Maybe the committee owes Gary Williams a favor?