I've uploaded two consecutive posts laden with optimism about Clemson's chances of making a run; now its time to throw a little reality onto any expectations I might have raised. Michigan is going to cause some very difficult matchup problems for Clemson, and honestly, given Purnell's coaching tendencies, I think we're in for a battle.
Clemson on Defense
There are two main areas of concern for Clemson's defense, first, Michigan is 16th best in the country at not turning the ball over, an obvious problem for a team that thrives on creating turnovers. Granted, a low turnover rate does not necessarily guarantee a team will handle a full-court press as good as Clemson's, but we can safely view this as a pretty good indicator that the press isn't going to be exceptionally effective. Second, Michigan shoots the three to the tune of 6th most in country. Clemson can expect roughly one of every two Michigan shots to come from behind the arc.
Now, these two points have been made here and around the Clemson blogosphere over the last couple of days, usually with the qualification that while Michigan likes to shoot the three they aren't particularly good at it; ranking well below average for division I (207th). But what I haven't seen anyone point out in the same breath is the rapid decline of Clemson's three-point shooting defense. We have gone from being pretty good at defending the three to slipping to average to free-falling into downright atrocious. We now rank 263rd in the country at defending the three. That's really just embarrasing for a team playing in a top conference. If you've read the blog at all, we've been pounding the same theme over and over--teams that break Clemson's press have been pulling up for open three-point looks instead of driving to the basket (which often allows a very athletic Clemson team to get back and defend or block layup-attempts). This strategy has really cut into Clemson's defensive efficiency, dropping our ranking from the inside the top ten to 52nd in the country.
If and when Michigan breaks the press, I expect nothing but three point attempts. And therein lies the real problem for Clemson, giving up open 3-point looks will substantially improve every shooter in the Michigan lineup and negate their overall poor 3-point shooting percentage. If, as is customary, Purnell and Clemson insist on running the press full time, the team will almost certainly look to the scoreboard at the five minute mark in the first half and find themselves staring down a 10-15 point deficit. To be clear, I'm not advocating complete abandonment of the press; I think Purnell just needs to be more judicious in its application during this game. Use it as a weapon, attack them for the first few minutes of each period, try to catch them by surprise by using it out of timeouts, and try different variations to slow them down.
Now, admittedly, Clemson's halfcourt defense has been way too porous of late, particularly around the perimeter. This has undoubtably also contributed to their declining defense. From my vantage, I feel this is more a product of a frustrated team losing its discipline. If playing in the NCAA tournament isn't enough to motivate Clemson into tightening up the defense, we can fold up the tents right now.
Clemson on Offense
The good news: Clemson should more or less have its way on offense. They should control the boards (on both ends of the court), hopefully leading to a few highlight Booker/Sykes dunk put-backs. Michigan does defend the three fairly well, 42nd best in the country, but they struggle against the inside shot. This leads to one fairly obvious conclusion--everything will run through Booker. Because Michigan lacks a significant height advantage, we can hope for the love of all that's holy that feeding the post won't be as difficult as in recent games. Eventually this will open up the perimeter for some bombs from Oglesby and Rivers. I don't think Michigan will be quick to double-team Booker, they might instead try to neutralize him with 6'10 Zack Gibson. This will certainly be a matchup to watch, but Booker isn't slowed by just height, tall players also must play excellent defense to keep him in check and I don't think Gibson is quite that caliber of a defender. If he does manage to slow Booker, Clemson can always turn to Stitt and Potter to open up the offense by slashing to the hoop.
Summary
This is fairly straightforward for Clemson. The only way I see Michigan winning is by getting into a situtation where they are trading threes for twos with Clemson's offense. If we relax the full-court press and concentrate on getting some stops in the half-court, we should win fairly handily. The question is, will Purnell turn down the press early and often enough? I don't know too many Clemson fans willing to place a "yes" bet.
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