Frankly Wake can be as good as they want to be, we had Rivers and Stitt on fire in the first half and were only up by four at halftime. The second half was sloppy, we were still up because we had the hot hand but played some pathetic defense--just giving up layups left and right. Wake was playing uninspired bball as well especially with Teague (by the way Teague is a baby) getting 4 fouls and on the bench but Clemson cant figure out what to do in the half court set now. Against a quality defensive team we cant get it into Booker or force it, giving up lame turnovers that look like high school ball. We had an over and back violation by Young, walking calls, the whole range of pathetic turnovers...and we still hung in there.
Wake can turn it on in a second, (I loved them barely even listening to Dino during the timeouts) they have the NBA level talent to do that and Johnson had some amazing dunks while Aminu seemed to grab every rebound over Rivers or whoever...speaking of rebounds, we couldnt get any in critical moments where we could have made a run. Not enough effort on the boards, effort needed against the taller Wake players. Clemson had a chance to make a run at the end but couldnt put it together...I think the press with three to five minutes to go hurt us...they got to many easy scores when we needed to play smarter and tighter defense. I know you want to speed the game up but Young's botched layup was all the defense was able to produce and that would have only cut it to eight. I think the Tigers have forgotten how to come from behind in the past couple of weeks. My guess is thats its a question of confidence and Clemson is lacking in that department now.
So now we play a talented GT squad and then go on to face FSU!! At least we get a chance to stare down the demons of this season and make a run at that elusive ACC championship game. I thought we were tired going into the NCAA tourney last year so maybe an early exit isnt the worst possible scenario but who wants to loose? And for the record no team without a bye in the ACC tourney has ever won the ACC tourney...
Well Tigers...time to make a little magic...
Sunday, 8 March 2009
Saturday, 7 March 2009
WAKE FOREST PREVIEW
(Winston-Salem, 03/08, 6:00pm)
To be honest, I'm having more trouble getting excited about this game than I thought I would. A couple of weeks ago it seemed that a lot more could be riding on this game; but if, as expected, FSU dispatches of VT earlier in the afternoon then the game will have no impact on Clemson's final ACC standing. They will be looking at a #5 finish. In fact, chances are WF will have more riding on the game, as a Duke loss (the Duke-UNC game should be wrapping up around tip-off time) will give them the #2 seed by beating Clemson.
Moreover, I just don't see Clemson being competitive in this game. We've talked about how poorly they match up with teams that have an FSU or WF-like profile (effectively tall--meaning taller than average at all positions--with top-20 caliber defense). They also are freakishly athletic, and showed they can move the ball at will against Clemson's press. I don't think I've ever seen Purnell's pressing attack rendered as porous as it was in the first WF game. They were going over the top, outrunning, and running right through the press, sometimes in the same possession. Aminu had some absolutely insane dunks where he seemed to go right through a defender on the way to the basket.
I thought our best hope going in was if WF lacked any particular motivation and decided to more or less not show up for the game--a common occurrence this year. You'll notice this isn't a statistics-based argument. The reason why: looking through their wins/losses this year I can't identify any trends that explain the weird results. I mean, a team with this much raw talent losing to VT at home and GT on the road in the span of one week? It just seems like they don't show up to play some nights. If Duke loses to UNC (highly likely), then I'm afraid they'll have all the motivation they need to put us away by double digits.
I'm certainly hoping that Purnell has secretly been adjusting the game plan in preparation for Sunday's game, springing some surprises in a bid for a big upset. But if there are some secret adjustments, I would think the right time for their debut would have been the FSU game (as I wrote about in the last FSU preview); any way you look at it FSU is an easier target for picking off a victory. I'll certainly be watching intently for any different approaches, but it's entirely likely (and even understandable) if at this point Purnell and staff just plan to go as far as they can with their current strategies in place.
To be honest, I'm having more trouble getting excited about this game than I thought I would. A couple of weeks ago it seemed that a lot more could be riding on this game; but if, as expected, FSU dispatches of VT earlier in the afternoon then the game will have no impact on Clemson's final ACC standing. They will be looking at a #5 finish. In fact, chances are WF will have more riding on the game, as a Duke loss (the Duke-UNC game should be wrapping up around tip-off time) will give them the #2 seed by beating Clemson.
Moreover, I just don't see Clemson being competitive in this game. We've talked about how poorly they match up with teams that have an FSU or WF-like profile (effectively tall--meaning taller than average at all positions--with top-20 caliber defense). They also are freakishly athletic, and showed they can move the ball at will against Clemson's press. I don't think I've ever seen Purnell's pressing attack rendered as porous as it was in the first WF game. They were going over the top, outrunning, and running right through the press, sometimes in the same possession. Aminu had some absolutely insane dunks where he seemed to go right through a defender on the way to the basket.
I thought our best hope going in was if WF lacked any particular motivation and decided to more or less not show up for the game--a common occurrence this year. You'll notice this isn't a statistics-based argument. The reason why: looking through their wins/losses this year I can't identify any trends that explain the weird results. I mean, a team with this much raw talent losing to VT at home and GT on the road in the span of one week? It just seems like they don't show up to play some nights. If Duke loses to UNC (highly likely), then I'm afraid they'll have all the motivation they need to put us away by double digits.
I'm certainly hoping that Purnell has secretly been adjusting the game plan in preparation for Sunday's game, springing some surprises in a bid for a big upset. But if there are some secret adjustments, I would think the right time for their debut would have been the FSU game (as I wrote about in the last FSU preview); any way you look at it FSU is an easier target for picking off a victory. I'll certainly be watching intently for any different approaches, but it's entirely likely (and even understandable) if at this point Purnell and staff just plan to go as far as they can with their current strategies in place.
Friday, 6 March 2009
CLEMBENTIGERMAX POWER RANKINGS: TEAMS
First a word of preface--yes its a little late in the season but we've been meaning to do this for awhile. These arent the actual standings but how good the teams are doing currently and RPI rankings, SOS, my opinion, etc.
TEAM RANKINGS
- North Carolina-Although not the unbeatable juggernaut they were at the beginning of the season-the core of Ellington, Hans, and Lawson is formidable-especially with Lawson more motivated to pick up his game as the end of the season looms.
- Duke-No I dont want Duke to be this high but I cant justify putting FSU or Wake ahead of them. Somehow Coach K has been able to right the ship. Clemson exposed their lack of athleticism but that Coach K can still coach and, unfortunately, still star in credit card commercials. I still think there are too many white players, especially ones named Paulus, to have a chance at a deep NCAA run. Second round defeat sounds about right.
- Florida State-After their solid defeat of Clemson I want to put them as number two but just cant do it after loosing to Duke. They are slightly ahead of an uneven Wake team and despite the loss are clicking down the stretch at the right time.
- Wake Forest-Perhaps the most lottery talent on one team in the country. At times they are absolutely dominant but at other times cant figure out how to share the ball and play without passion. Too much selfish play. Granted they beat on FSU the first and only time they will play but losses to GT, NC State and a poor showing at Virginia and Maryland give me cause for concern.
- Clemson-My Tigers just cant seem to get the ball in to T-Book. This team has been overachieving all year and has had a rocky week but its been a great ride. Still capable of beating any team in the league and perhaps the country when they are on. OP can flat out coach and hopefully makes the right adjustments down the stretch.
- Boston College-Rice is the heart and soul of this team but they can lack consistency as evidenced by their loss to NC State. Must win against BC to secure NCAA bid and must find some scoring help to ease the burden on Rice. Its funny how a lot of these teams primary colors are the same...
- Virginia Tech-This season has been a disappointing one for me and I'm sure for Hokies fans. After being shut out of the NCAA's last year and coach Greenberg wailing and moaning about it I think its safe to assume we will be hearing more of it. Bad ref work cost them at Duke and maybe even NC but they have to beat FSU and win some games in ACC tourney or its NIT city. Still this is a more talented team than their record indicates.
- Maryland-Gary Williams should be commended for the job he has done with this team. Watching them almost beat a superior Wake squad is why I love college bball over the nba anyday. David 'churchballer' Neal and the Grevis man a team that is as much about heart as it is about skill.
- Miami-Welcome to Miami, home of the most disappointing team in the ACC. Projected by some to finish third, with the loss to GT I think we can say that barring a massive run deep into the ACC tourney they have punched their NIT ticket. McClinton is still amazing and can still take over a game but this team just cant find any semblance of consistency.
- NC State-Someone needs to give Coach Lowe a clue. He is the most awful coach in the ACC and his teams reflect it. State has picked it up here at the end of the year, beating BC and will give Miami a hard rub but its hard seeing how this team is going to rise out of mediocrity with Lowe at the helm.
- Georgia Tech-I'm not sure I've ever seen a team do so little with so much talent. Paul Hewitt has been giving the aforementioned Coach Lowe a run for his money as the worst coach in the ACC this year. This team has the talent and potential but cant put it together and if it were not for the stellar recruiting class coming to GT, I would think that Hewitt's days would be numbered, regardless he is on a short leash heading into next year.
- Virginia-The fact that Virginia is on the bottom of this list speaks to the relative strength of the ACC, top to bottom-perhaps the best conference in the country. This team is all about Landesberg, Chad Ford even has him going in the first round if he declares, but not much is surrounding him. If he goes the team is done for next year and I dont see Coach Leitao weathering the storm for much longer. There is some young talent here but it still needs a lot of developing.
Wednesday, 4 March 2009
VIRGINIA RECAP II
Clemson 72, Virginia 57
ClemBen outlined the ugly turn Clemson's chances for a first round bye took tonight. If I understand right (going off the 2007 rules here), if we end in a three way 10-6 tie, Clemson is the odd team out. The combined record of the ties teams against each other is compiled, leaving the following (assuming a Clemson win and a FSU win):
3) Wake Forest 2-1 (one win over Clemson, one over FSU-gives them the tiebreak for the #3 spot)
4) FSU 2-1 (two wins over Clemson, loss to FSU)
5) Clemson 1-3
Clemson has to beat WF and hope for a VT upset of FSU. Both of these seem pretty unlikely, so get ready for GT in the first round, FSU in the second. Yeah, FSU...there's the bad postseason matchup I was worried about.
Clemson had the game put away at the under 4:00 timeout, second half. Its good to get the win, but I honestly didn't see much that encouraged me. The first half was more of the same from Clemson, and a better shooting team would have been up by 12 at the break. Too sloppy with the ball, giving up open looks on defense, and unable to feed the post.
I did like how Purnell went man-to-man in the second-half, mixing things up a little. But I think the credit for tonight's victory has to go to the Cavaliers' meltdown, a few unforced turnovers resulting in some easy buckets for Clemson and they really unraveled.
One last chance for some serious adjustments as we go against WF on Sunday. Let's hope to see some focused play and some early different looks from Clemson's defense, or things could get ugly fast. One other thing to keep an eye on for the WF game: according to Tigernet, KC Rivers played the second half with an injured shoulder. Given his poor play in the last couple of games, I'm wondering if this hasn't been some festering issue for Rivers.
ClemBen outlined the ugly turn Clemson's chances for a first round bye took tonight. If I understand right (going off the 2007 rules here), if we end in a three way 10-6 tie, Clemson is the odd team out. The combined record of the ties teams against each other is compiled, leaving the following (assuming a Clemson win and a FSU win):
3) Wake Forest 2-1 (one win over Clemson, one over FSU-gives them the tiebreak for the #3 spot)
4) FSU 2-1 (two wins over Clemson, loss to FSU)
5) Clemson 1-3
Clemson has to beat WF and hope for a VT upset of FSU. Both of these seem pretty unlikely, so get ready for GT in the first round, FSU in the second. Yeah, FSU...there's the bad postseason matchup I was worried about.
Clemson had the game put away at the under 4:00 timeout, second half. Its good to get the win, but I honestly didn't see much that encouraged me. The first half was more of the same from Clemson, and a better shooting team would have been up by 12 at the break. Too sloppy with the ball, giving up open looks on defense, and unable to feed the post.
I did like how Purnell went man-to-man in the second-half, mixing things up a little. But I think the credit for tonight's victory has to go to the Cavaliers' meltdown, a few unforced turnovers resulting in some easy buckets for Clemson and they really unraveled.
One last chance for some serious adjustments as we go against WF on Sunday. Let's hope to see some focused play and some early different looks from Clemson's defense, or things could get ugly fast. One other thing to keep an eye on for the WF game: according to Tigernet, KC Rivers played the second half with an injured shoulder. Given his poor play in the last couple of games, I'm wondering if this hasn't been some festering issue for Rivers.
Virginia Post-Game Ramblings
It was good to finally play a decent half of basketball. Virginia is not that good of a team and this game shouldnt have been tied at the half. Their star Landesberg had an atrocious night but a win is a win and as we get set for a showdown against Wake. But it may not matter that much bc everything that would have helped us last night didnt happen.
A quick rundown:Duke beat FSU and Wake pulled it out against the Terps. Duke cant be caught now-if they had lost to FSU and NC, we pull ahead with a win against Wake bc we own the tiebreaker. Not going to happen so we need FSU to loose to Virginia Tech and we obviously have to beat Wake. Tough road to the ACC bye despite church baller Dave Neal's best efforts.
A few notes from last nights game.
- The above chart shows how many turnovers we are committing. We were yet again, another turnover factory in the first half. Hard to figure out how to correct it, our post players cant get position and our guards dont have the patience or presence to know when not to force it and pull it back and when to give T-Book the rock. I'm sure that OP has been stressing getting the ball inbounds but this leads to the younger guys (Tanner Smith, looking at you) forcing it too often. I loved an inside/outside play with Booker and Young that led to an open three from Young. If only TO could learn to do that...
- Sykes is left so wide open that I cant wait to have Milton Jennings not let defenses collapse the way they do.
- Potter fouls a whole lot. I know he is playing bigger men but he commits a lot of stupid fouls. Good to see OP give him a nice chat about it on the sideline.
- In the beginning of the second half OP went full court man to man, thought it was one of the reasons we went up big. Good to see we might be thinking about not living and dieing by the press. Dont get me wrong, love the press, but I love a diverse selection of pressures even better.
- Rivers needs to step it up and not throw the ball into the stands-Sykes made some truly awesome dunks and four straight FT's, quite a senior night...
Tuesday, 3 March 2009
VIRGINIA PREVIEW II
(littlejohn, 03/03, 7:00pm)
I don't have much to add to the first preview, except that Virginia has now clearly established itself as the second worst team in the league, lifting itself out of its titanic struggle with Georgia Tech (largely thanks to us...). Looking at the stats this is a game Clemson should win 9 times out of 10 (which gives us about a 1 in 100 chance of losing to Virginia twice in the same season). But at the same time, let's not kid ourselves here--this is the kind of game where stats don't tell the whole story.
The book is out on Clemson--on offense, get your best three-point shooters spotting up behind the three point line in transition after breaking the press, and on defense do everything you can to deny the entry pass into the post. Do that, and a lot of teams are going to give themselves a chance to win down the stretch. Virginia's a bad three point-shooting team, but that didn't stop them from putting up a plus-forty percentage performance against us before. Look for Sammy Zeglinski and even their big man Jamil Tucker to spot up, catch, and shoot after breaking the press.
If we trot out the same game plan, particularly defensive game plan, we have used in the last few weeks, there is a real possibility we lose this game. If we make some adjustments, hopefully we see a team that can win handily today and also put up a fight in the postseason. To be clear, I'm not sure what, if anything, can be done at this point, particularly on offense. Your backcourt can't just grow a few inches overnight. But please, please, maybe a little more focus on halfcourt defense at the occasional expense of the full-court press? Doesn't have to be much, just don't let them get comfortable shooting those threes...
GO TIGERS!!!
I don't have much to add to the first preview, except that Virginia has now clearly established itself as the second worst team in the league, lifting itself out of its titanic struggle with Georgia Tech (largely thanks to us...). Looking at the stats this is a game Clemson should win 9 times out of 10 (which gives us about a 1 in 100 chance of losing to Virginia twice in the same season). But at the same time, let's not kid ourselves here--this is the kind of game where stats don't tell the whole story.
The book is out on Clemson--on offense, get your best three-point shooters spotting up behind the three point line in transition after breaking the press, and on defense do everything you can to deny the entry pass into the post. Do that, and a lot of teams are going to give themselves a chance to win down the stretch. Virginia's a bad three point-shooting team, but that didn't stop them from putting up a plus-forty percentage performance against us before. Look for Sammy Zeglinski and even their big man Jamil Tucker to spot up, catch, and shoot after breaking the press.
If we trot out the same game plan, particularly defensive game plan, we have used in the last few weeks, there is a real possibility we lose this game. If we make some adjustments, hopefully we see a team that can win handily today and also put up a fight in the postseason. To be clear, I'm not sure what, if anything, can be done at this point, particularly on offense. Your backcourt can't just grow a few inches overnight. But please, please, maybe a little more focus on halfcourt defense at the occasional expense of the full-court press? Doesn't have to be much, just don't let them get comfortable shooting those threes...
GO TIGERS!!!
Sunday, 1 March 2009
FLORIDA STATE RECAP II
Florida State 73, Clemson 66
(Chart from Statsheet. I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
I don't have much to add to ClemBen's impassioned take below...just to say that today dashed any realistic hopes of a deep postseason run. I still think 10 wins gives us a shot at an ACC bye, but we lose the tiebreaker to FSU, and, moreover, beating Wake Forest in Winston-Salem is probably about twice as hard as beating FSU in Tallahassee. Even with the bye, though, chances are we meet up with FSU or WF at some point, and we've shown we can't beat these guys.
The only stat you have to look at for this game in three point attempts: 28. Right away, we know they weren't getting the ball inside, which was really the key to the game. Going 12/28 is a testament to the good shooters we have right now, 43% shooting from behind the arc when the inside game is non-existent means guys are knocking them down even with lots of pressure.
On defense, I said in the preview to watch FSU's 3 point shooting. They went 7/17, making them the fourth out of five average to middling 3-point shooting teams to hang a plus 40% on our defense. The only team that failed was Maryland, and it wasn't for lack of trying; they had many, many wide open threes that missed the mark. The book has gotten out on our defense, its time for the Clemson staff to make an adjustment...even if it means being a little more conservative with the press.
(Chart from Statsheet. I can't find win probability charts, but this is pretty close. I assume they are using Bill James' formula to calculate safe leads, but I might be wrong.)
I don't have much to add to ClemBen's impassioned take below...just to say that today dashed any realistic hopes of a deep postseason run. I still think 10 wins gives us a shot at an ACC bye, but we lose the tiebreaker to FSU, and, moreover, beating Wake Forest in Winston-Salem is probably about twice as hard as beating FSU in Tallahassee. Even with the bye, though, chances are we meet up with FSU or WF at some point, and we've shown we can't beat these guys.
The only stat you have to look at for this game in three point attempts: 28. Right away, we know they weren't getting the ball inside, which was really the key to the game. Going 12/28 is a testament to the good shooters we have right now, 43% shooting from behind the arc when the inside game is non-existent means guys are knocking them down even with lots of pressure.
On defense, I said in the preview to watch FSU's 3 point shooting. They went 7/17, making them the fourth out of five average to middling 3-point shooting teams to hang a plus 40% on our defense. The only team that failed was Maryland, and it wasn't for lack of trying; they had many, many wide open threes that missed the mark. The book has gotten out on our defense, its time for the Clemson staff to make an adjustment...even if it means being a little more conservative with the press.
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