Dwyer Gone

Its official. Chris Dwyer, unfortunately not GT's Jonathan Dwyer (wouldn't that be a pleasant headline with the looming Thursday night game?) (yes, its close enough to say "looming", because, well...hurry up and start already football season).

This stings a bit for next year's baseball squad, I was hoping Dwyer would be back. Although his numbers weren't spectacular (a lot of people are going to be thrown by that 4.92 ERA), as far as potential goes he was probably the best pitcher on the staff. Performance-wise, his numbers aren't too difficult to replace, but replacing that kind of upside will be difficult for 2010. I had really hoped the Royals (of all teams, particularly) wouldn't be willing to shell out the money and he'd back in a Tiger uniform. Best of luck to Dwyer, though, and congratulations on landing the biggest signing bonus for a fourth round player in MLB draft history.

Clemben's Top Five Skarelina Videos: #3

Nothing like revisiting this classic post, got to love sending Lou off with this one...too bad he landed at espn. Is there a more irritating pair with Mark May and Lou on tv? Obviously this is an equally embarrassing event for Clemson but it reminds you of how thuggish SC players can be. We had a couple thugs back then too and both programs have cleaned up somewhat, but in this video South Carolina players at that time show their true colors. Poor sports...and my favorite part is that Lou has no control over his players whatsoever...

Draft Round-up

A quick word on the MLB draft. Things are looking good for next year as Ben Paulsen was the only tiger drafted in the first three rounds so he is gone. Thats a tough loss for Clemson but as a junior he was pretty much gone no matter what, good luck to him--one of the most consistent performers in the past couple of years at Clemson. Dwyer and some of this years recruiting class seem to have scared off some of their potential suitors by having too high of an asking price. MLB drafts are a little different than basketball and certainly football. Players have more leverage and can get drafted but never sign--happens quite often. Players have a signing bonus demand and if the team wont agree to it then they can go to college or play for an independent league. This State article points out that Clemson isnt in the clear yet--DJ Mitchell signed in the 10th round but the Yankees were willing to pay the $400,000 signing bonus, so you never know. Right now Dwyer is asking for second round money apparently so he can use and benefit from another year of college without hurting his draft stock too much.

So much has been made of Strasburg but it remains to be seen if the Nationals will fork out the cash for him (Scott Boras is his agent), so its quite possible he doesnt even play minor league ball next year. Interesting system of high schoolers, college players, independent leagues, international signings, and above all sports agents they got going in the MLB. But for the present it seems that Jack and the Tigers are sitting pretty for next season.

Final Thoughts, Pre-Super-Regional

Well, I completely got the date wrong for the start of the Clemson-ASU super-regional in my last post. I woke up yesterday morning expecting to watch the game in the evening; didn't realize it started Saturday until I checked espn.com a few hours later. I hate it when I do this, I was all geared up to watch the game last night and then suddenly the rug gets pulled out from underneath me. Oh well, I managed to catch some of the other super-regional games last night so it wasn't a total loss.

A few final thoughts:

• The extra day probably helps ASU more than us given the lack of depth in their pitching staff, although there's been enough rest to probably not give either team any real advantage.


• The MLB draft starts June 9th (I double-checked the date this time), so this is the last weekend to play in front of the scouts. At this point, anything that happens this weekend probably doesn't make a difference, teams pretty much know the strengths/weaknesses of individual players. But as a player, the days leading up to the draft must be nerve-wracking, and I wonder if they don't end up pressing in an attempt to make a last-second good impression, or alternatively if they don't hold back something to avoid a stupid injury. The only first round lock playing in Tempe this weekend is Mike Leake, but I wonder if fringe second and third-round guys like Chris Dywer, Ben Paulsen, and Jason Kipnis wouldn't be affected by this kind of mindset.


• Arizona State starting pitchers landed five times in Boyd Nation's Pitch Count Watch, which requires a start of ~130 or more pitches. I think its safe to say that ASU has ridden their starting pitchers if things are going well, with little regard for climbing pitch counts.


• By contrast, Clemson makes only one appearance on the list, last week's Dwyer start against OSU. I think this might suggest Leggett is a little more "new-school" in favoring pitch count limits. In the post-season, though, I doubt there's a college coach alive that cares about pitch count other than as a proxy for arm fatigue.


• Related to the above, I came across this ridiculous article at MLB.com today. It sounds like some MLB mouthpiece concern-trolling college baseball for not having rigid pitch counts in their post-season play that align with the current interests of MLB. Look, I get that MLB sees college players as future assets, but don't tell me these college kids don't want to win as much as their managers. I'm all for keeping pitch counts down in general, but in the post-season its just a different story.


• A general rant on pitch-counts: I definitely fall in the camp that thinks MLB takes things to a pretty ridiculous extreme. Its no wonder that major league teams find half of their staff injured two-thirds of the way through the season, these guys are being selected for pure stuff and no endurance. The other extreme is equally stupid, though--say in Japanese baseball, where you get high school kids throwing hundreds of pitches on consecutive days in the Koshien Tournament. That system ends up selecting for pitchers that have rubber arms and little else. There's a happy medium where pitchers are extended enough to identify guys that are high injury risks, but still retain guys with excellent stuff.


• Speaking of Japan, if you have a weak stomach you might want to look the other way:
  
  You read that right--Lemon Vinegar KitKat. Yeah, not the first flavor one would naturally associate with chocolate. I hear there's Apple Vinegar, as well.

LET'S GO TIGERS!!!

NCAA Super-Regional: ASU

Well, the Tigers play Arizona State in the Super-Regional best of three series starting Friday. ASU is the overall 5th seed in the tournament, led by likely top 15 first round draft pick RHP Mike Leake. You've probably already seen the eye-popping raw numbers: 20 BB vs. 143 K in 124.2 IP. The scouting reports say the most impressive part of his pitching reportoire is his command, sitting around 70 on the 20-80 scale--he can apparently throw four different pitches for strikes, at any point in the count. The other thing I keep reading about is praise for his poise--so I wouldn't count on Clemson being able to rattle him with any of their patented offensive outbursts. The other two primary starters for ASU hover close to mere mortality, but still sport solid numbers that match up well with any of Clemson's starters. One glaring kink in ASU's pitching is their lack of depth; including the three starters they really only run about 7 deep this season. Of course, when you have a guy like Leake throwing complete games every time he takes the hill that tends to lessen the need for bullpen work, and when they do turn the ball over it usually goes to newly-minted Freshman All-American Mitchell Lambson, he of 84 Ks in 73.2 largely relief innings. Notwithstanding Lambson, Clemson has to be thinking about breaking into ASU's pen on offense this Friday, but with Leake likely dealing strikes from the get-go they probably can't afford to take an unusually patient approach at the plate.

On offense, ASU is led by PAC-10 player of the year CF Jason Kipnis (a likely second rounder in next week's draft), who sports a healthy .387/.500/.731 slash line--the guy manages to gets on base in half of his plate appearances. In raw home run totals, he is bested by the other slugger on the roster, catcher Carlos Ramirez, who has 18 to Kipnis' 15.

I guess what jumps out at me is the top pitchers and hitters at ASU have put up better numbers than anyone on the Tigers' roster. Despite this, I don't think you can name ASU the overwhelming favorite this weekend for two reasons: 1) roster-wise, top to bottom the Tigers get more consistent numbers out of their players, particularly on offense. 2) You have to take into account opponent strength--the PAC-10 is traditionally a power conference in baseball, but this year has been something of a down year (ASU is the last PAC-10 team in the field) and by most accounts a strong year for the ACC.

One area where the Tigers might be overmatched is defense--not exactly a strong suit this season. ASU has PAC-10 defensive player of the year SS Jake Schlander, and looking at the pitching numbers, it seems safe to infer that their staff ERA is bolstered by a strong defense.

All in all, Clemson is certainly the underdog this weekend. But not by wide margin. It will be interesting to see how Clemson's youngish offense fares against a highly-regarded pitcher, one who probably hasn't faced a lineup this year with the same mix of balance and power that Clemson will run out. Like I said before the regional, baseball is a game driven in part by random outcomes, and the Tigers are riding a hot streak. Let's hope it carries them through the weekend--

GO TIGERS!!!

SUPER WIN! Tigers Do It Again!

I have to admit when we were down 5-1 in the seventh, I took off my orange colored spectacles and wondered if another Clemson team with more talent than their opponents would bite the dust again. This team loves to live dangerously. Ok St was rolling and our pitching was struggling out of the gate--Hinson lasted one inning, giving up two runs in the second when Cruz was called upon to save us. Which he did and then he battled, giving up a solo home run and a bunch of unearned runs, before you knew we were down big, Matt Vaughn was in the game and he struggled a little bit. We inserted Kyle Parker on offense, Boyd, Sanders and nothing. Its not until Mr. Epps comes to the plate and homers with two outs that things start changing. Thats what you call clutch.

So we are down in the eighth but its manageable at 5-4 Ok St. Then after being benched in his biggest at bat of the season none other than our future QB KP comes to bat and plates two runs to take the lead. I couldnt believe this was the same team. Vaughn comes on in the 9th and gets a ground ball that Miller makes a good play on and we have to wait five min while the coach from Ok state gets thrown out. Then we give up another single off the 1st basemans glove, an out to advance the runner. Leggett decides to walk Ok St. best player and hottest bat to put runners on first and second. Now that is not a buy the book move cause you put the winning run on base but it worked and we leave the Doug to move on to Tempe AZ to play ASU in a best of three SUPER REGIONAL! It will be interesting to see who we elect to start but for now I'm just going to love winning for a change. Way to scrape for three consecutive wins. Leggett is now 11-0 in games where Clemson can clinch a regional or super regional with a victory.

I really got to know this team better in these past few days. Funny how a team can grow on you as you face some adversity together--I know I sound corny but I'm really rooting for these guys now more than ever. They got character and they stick together--something the other Clemson teams could take a lesson on. Anyway, its late and I'm waxing poetic--Go Tigers! Beat those heathen Sun Devils!!

Weekend Baseball Observations

After blowing the first game against OK St. Clemson needed to win three straight games to advance to the SuperRegional and they have won two of those, needed only to beat OK St. once more tonight to move on. Its tough to play the same team three times but thats the position Clemson put itself in. So a quick rundown of the games for those who missed it.

In the first game against Tenn Tech we almost blew it. We had a runner on second in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings and couldnt advance any runners. Kyle Parker along with the offense in general had been struggling somewhat sinve the ACC tourney and it bled into the tourney. Delk really struggled giving up four runs early. It took some heriocs on a double by Schaus down the first base line to plate two runs and win the game 5-4 in the 9th. It was good to see Addison Johnson come in and get a pinch hit single to key the rally. Graham Stoneburner come on in relief and pitched a gem, pretty much saving our bacon. Losing the first game in these double elimination things is really tough so its good we came through with that one.

In the first OK St. game, Harman pitched seven perfect innings but then gave up two consecutive solo shots that put the Tigers down 2-0. Which was a shame bc he really was pitching nicely. Clemson in the eighth showed their first sign of life scoring two runs on four consecutive singles off of the starter Oliver. We had runners on second and third (and all the momentum in our favor) with one out and Schaus goes and strikes out and then KP pops up to end the inning. We then made two bad defensive plays, really bad. Boyd basically misses the ball in CF and then Paulsen let a ball bounce off his glove, even if he knocks it down he prevents the run scoring from second. Tough couple of plays and McCurry in relief for the Cowboys was lights out.

We blanked Tenn Tech 10-0, Weismann going eight innings and then exacted revenge on 15-1 against Ok St., with Dwyer going eight innings as well. So the starting pitching with the exception of Delk has been superb--I mean awesome. It wasnt considered to be our greatest strength going in but we have been very good. The offense has finally come around but that is against second and third tier starters, not the best pitchers on the teams. I think it was a good move by Leggett to pull Parker from the lineup, albeit a tough one and he has some serious decisions to make about who to start in this last game, the two freshman Weismann and Dwyer looked good after stuggling a little towards the end of the season--perhaps fatigue. Leggett said he was favoring starting Hinson, which wouldnt be a bad move going forward.

I think tonights game comes down to who Ok St. starts. If the start McCurry will he be able to handle the work load. If he is fresh then its going to be another nailbiter and we dont want to be in a close game with Ok St. relying on their stout relief pitching.

I wanted to recommend and thank MRBO on justintv.com for broadcasting the games. Check it out if you want to watch the games streamed. I think we are the best team in the regional and it would be a shame to finish so early, Go Tigers! Beat those stinking Cowboys!

Thoughts on the Baseball Tourneys

Quick thoughts after digesting the events of the weekend:

• Lot of talk about a flop over in Durham this past weekend. Tough loss to Virginia, to be sure, but I'm not too concerned about a 1-run loss. Studies for games in the majors have shown teams tend to win 1-run games at the rate of their win percentage, but there's a lot of variation in the numbers. This leads to a kind of "luck" for in 1-run outcomes. I imagine these studies more or less hold true for top-shelf college competition (like the ACC variety) and by my count, Clemson is now 7-5 in 1-run games: more or less where we'd expect them to be and nothing to complain about, really.
• The loss to Duke was another story. While Duke got into Dwyer and later McKinney, our balls in play weren't falling against Andrew Wolcott. That's the way Clemson is constructed this year, though. While the pitching staff is far from a bunch of slackers, the offense is the strongest unit--we're out there to put runs on the board, not necessarily prevent them from coming in.
• A lot of people will say that's not a great recipe for post-season success, and the road to Omaha is paved in solid pitching performance. I buy that to an extent, but the good news is Clemson has done just as well, if not better, on weekend games against the best the opposition throws at us. We're not just punishing poor pitchers, but good pitchers as well.
• Regionals should be up in a couple of hours. Here's to praying that Stephen Strasburg, his 103mph fastball, and San Diego State don't land in our regional, and pitying the host team that gets SDSU. They might as well not show up.

Update: haha Virginia!