Well, the Tigers play Arizona State in the Super-Regional best of three series starting Friday. ASU is the overall 5th seed in the tournament, led by likely top 15 first round draft pick RHP Mike Leake. You've probably already seen the eye-popping raw numbers: 20 BB vs. 143 K in 124.2 IP. The scouting reports say the most impressive part of his pitching reportoire is his command, sitting around 70 on the 20-80 scale--he can apparently throw four different pitches for strikes, at any point in the count. The other thing I keep reading about is praise for his poise--so I wouldn't count on Clemson being able to rattle him with any of their patented offensive outbursts. The other two primary starters for ASU hover close to mere mortality, but still sport solid numbers that match up well with any of Clemson's starters. One glaring kink in ASU's pitching is their lack of depth; including the three starters they really only run about 7 deep this season. Of course, when you have a guy like Leake throwing complete games every time he takes the hill that tends to lessen the need for bullpen work, and when they do turn the ball over it usually goes to newly-minted Freshman All-American Mitchell Lambson, he of 84 Ks in 73.2 largely relief innings. Notwithstanding Lambson, Clemson has to be thinking about breaking into ASU's pen on offense this Friday, but with Leake likely dealing strikes from the get-go they probably can't afford to take an unusually patient approach at the plate.
On offense, ASU is led by PAC-10 player of the year CF Jason Kipnis (a likely second rounder in next week's draft), who sports a healthy .387/.500/.731 slash line--the guy manages to gets on base in half of his plate appearances. In raw home run totals, he is bested by the other slugger on the roster, catcher Carlos Ramirez, who has 18 to Kipnis' 15.
I guess what jumps out at me is the top pitchers and hitters at ASU have put up better numbers than anyone on the Tigers' roster. Despite this, I don't think you can name ASU the overwhelming favorite this weekend for two reasons: 1) roster-wise, top to bottom the Tigers get more consistent numbers out of their players, particularly on offense. 2) You have to take into account opponent strength--the PAC-10 is traditionally a power conference in baseball, but this year has been something of a down year (ASU is the last PAC-10 team in the field) and by most accounts a strong year for the ACC.
One area where the Tigers might be overmatched is defense--not exactly a strong suit this season. ASU has PAC-10 defensive player of the year SS Jake Schlander, and looking at the pitching numbers, it seems safe to infer that their staff ERA is bolstered by a strong defense.
All in all, Clemson is certainly the underdog this weekend. But not by wide margin. It will be interesting to see how Clemson's youngish offense fares against a highly-regarded pitcher, one who probably hasn't faced a lineup this year with the same mix of balance and power that Clemson will run out. Like I said before the regional, baseball is a game driven in part by random outcomes, and the Tigers are riding a hot streak. Let's hope it carries them through the weekend--
GO TIGERS!!!
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