Clemson/Oklahoma Weather Delay: Game Suspended

So we are delayed right now but Clemson really came out and took it to Oklahoma. This weather delay is bad news because Weissman was doing well and could have gone at least another inning if not two innings. Frederick pitched last night and he is the best in our weak bullpen.

So the game so far was showing the weakness of our defense--Miller dropped a ball that would have gotten the runner trying to steal second. That fatboy for Oklahoma can run--a bunt and chopped infield single, plus a nice run into the gap to take away a double.

The game turned because Oklahoma pitcher Shore lost his control and threw 14 straight balls. Oklahoma scored a run off of Weissman who has been giving up a lot of fly balls, not keeping the ball down enough but getting some strikeouts and swinging strikes to put together a solid start.

I also had no problem with taking that error by the Oklahoma outfielder because the Kyle Paker bomb was clearly a home run--give me a break...Do we not have someone else to play SS--31 errors, give me a break. I'm not thrilled with Epps as the DH, I guess they are protecting Lamb to use in the bullpen or starting but I don't know.

Worst moment of the game--a double steal?? Boyd wasnt even close at home and you take the bat out of Freeman's hands. A Busch League managing move, you have momentum-with 2 outs, risking Keiboom getting caught stealing with a man on third makes little sense and statistically doesn't improve your chances unless you are close to 80% sure he will be able to steal the base.

Anyway, I would imagine Lamb goes tomorrow but its hard to tell and really a tough break when you have that kind of momentum. We are up 6-1 but that can quickly disappear with our bullpen, although perhaps Frederick can now be used. Winning this game means we get two chances to try to get one win to be in the finals with probably UCLA but need to make 12 outs before we can think of that...(oh wait Im already thinking ahead...)

But I should really leave this on a positive note--we are up 6-1 and poised to put ourselves in the drivers seat for the Championship game...KP hit a blast, we chased another starting pitcher, and KieBOOM is more awesome than Bushytail....

Draft Round-up

A quick word on the MLB draft. Things are looking good for next year as Ben Paulsen was the only tiger drafted in the first three rounds so he is gone. Thats a tough loss for Clemson but as a junior he was pretty much gone no matter what, good luck to him--one of the most consistent performers in the past couple of years at Clemson. Dwyer and some of this years recruiting class seem to have scared off some of their potential suitors by having too high of an asking price. MLB drafts are a little different than basketball and certainly football. Players have more leverage and can get drafted but never sign--happens quite often. Players have a signing bonus demand and if the team wont agree to it then they can go to college or play for an independent league. This State article points out that Clemson isnt in the clear yet--DJ Mitchell signed in the 10th round but the Yankees were willing to pay the $400,000 signing bonus, so you never know. Right now Dwyer is asking for second round money apparently so he can use and benefit from another year of college without hurting his draft stock too much.

So much has been made of Strasburg but it remains to be seen if the Nationals will fork out the cash for him (Scott Boras is his agent), so its quite possible he doesnt even play minor league ball next year. Interesting system of high schoolers, college players, independent leagues, international signings, and above all sports agents they got going in the MLB. But for the present it seems that Jack and the Tigers are sitting pretty for next season.

Weekend Baseball Observations

After blowing the first game against OK St. Clemson needed to win three straight games to advance to the SuperRegional and they have won two of those, needed only to beat OK St. once more tonight to move on. Its tough to play the same team three times but thats the position Clemson put itself in. So a quick rundown of the games for those who missed it.

In the first game against Tenn Tech we almost blew it. We had a runner on second in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings and couldnt advance any runners. Kyle Parker along with the offense in general had been struggling somewhat sinve the ACC tourney and it bled into the tourney. Delk really struggled giving up four runs early. It took some heriocs on a double by Schaus down the first base line to plate two runs and win the game 5-4 in the 9th. It was good to see Addison Johnson come in and get a pinch hit single to key the rally. Graham Stoneburner come on in relief and pitched a gem, pretty much saving our bacon. Losing the first game in these double elimination things is really tough so its good we came through with that one.

In the first OK St. game, Harman pitched seven perfect innings but then gave up two consecutive solo shots that put the Tigers down 2-0. Which was a shame bc he really was pitching nicely. Clemson in the eighth showed their first sign of life scoring two runs on four consecutive singles off of the starter Oliver. We had runners on second and third (and all the momentum in our favor) with one out and Schaus goes and strikes out and then KP pops up to end the inning. We then made two bad defensive plays, really bad. Boyd basically misses the ball in CF and then Paulsen let a ball bounce off his glove, even if he knocks it down he prevents the run scoring from second. Tough couple of plays and McCurry in relief for the Cowboys was lights out.

We blanked Tenn Tech 10-0, Weismann going eight innings and then exacted revenge on 15-1 against Ok St., with Dwyer going eight innings as well. So the starting pitching with the exception of Delk has been superb--I mean awesome. It wasnt considered to be our greatest strength going in but we have been very good. The offense has finally come around but that is against second and third tier starters, not the best pitchers on the teams. I think it was a good move by Leggett to pull Parker from the lineup, albeit a tough one and he has some serious decisions to make about who to start in this last game, the two freshman Weismann and Dwyer looked good after stuggling a little towards the end of the season--perhaps fatigue. Leggett said he was favoring starting Hinson, which wouldnt be a bad move going forward.

I think tonights game comes down to who Ok St. starts. If the start McCurry will he be able to handle the work load. If he is fresh then its going to be another nailbiter and we dont want to be in a close game with Ok St. relying on their stout relief pitching.

I wanted to recommend and thank MRBO on justintv.com for broadcasting the games. Check it out if you want to watch the games streamed. I think we are the best team in the regional and it would be a shame to finish so early, Go Tigers! Beat those stinking Cowboys!

Baseball Team

It's been a while since i wrote anything about Clemson baseball. Watching the season unfold, though, I don't think you can complain about anything if you're a Clemson fan. I had the team pegged as being a little better than .500, maybe sneaking into the Tournament if a few things broke the right way. Over half way into the season, and its clear I was totally wrong; they will best the .500 mark and barring a total collapse down the stretch, should find themselves in a decent position to make a run in the Tournament. This is no fluke where the Tigers have won a bunch of close games and been blown out by the better teams, either. Clemson is hovering around the #15 mark in simulated RPI standings and Boyd's world has them at #20 in the iterative strength rankings. Not too shabby. To be clear, I don't think this team can necessarily make it to Omaha, but the season has to restore some faith in Leggett's recruiting and coaching abilities.

So how have they done it? I tried previewing/projecting the offense earlier in the season, and this is what I came up with for some of the important counting stats:

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Other Research baseball clemson baseball

Here's what the actual numbers look like so far:

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Research baseball ben paulsen

Big differences, but its hard to gauge the actual impact from just looking at the raw numbers (good patience at the plate by Clemson's middle infielders, though). If we convert these into wOBA (a measurement of total offensive worth, scaled to be similar to on-base percentage) and the wRAA (runs created above average), we get a better picture. Here are the numbers I was projecting:

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Research baseball clemson baseball

And here is how the players are actually performing to this point in the season:

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Research baseball clemson baseball

When I talked about Clemson's chances earlier, I mentioned that they would have to see either small improvements across the board or get a couple of players to step up with monster seasons. I didn't plan on both happening. Ben Paulsen is absolutely having a monster season, and Kyle Parker, while not quite as good as last year, is still putting up great numbers. But looking further down, we see great improvement from Jeff Schaus, Mike Freeman, and even Matt Sanders. On top of this, Brad Miller's rookie season at SS has been an improvement over what we could have realistically expected from Stan Widman. The only players not showing a lot of improvement (Addison Johnson, John Nester) are playing premium defensive positions, and its not like they are killing the team, either. The only real exception is probably Boyd, who hasn't really been performing at DH, probably explaining why he's been the odd man out when someone needs a rest in the field.

All in all, the upgrade on offense over last year has been worth somewhere around 100 runs. Using the old adage that 10 runs netted == 1 win in the victory column, that's a swing of about 10 wins. Add these 10 wins to my earlier guess that the team was a little better than .500 and you have a good estimate of where the team will end up, maybe 13-17 games above the .500 mark? Of course, all the usual caveats apply since this ignores defense and pitching contributions. But if guys stick around for another year or so and keep improving, even if not at the same rate as this year relative to last year, next year's offense is looking Omaha-worthy.