This will be pretty short, I'm still trying to shake the disappointment of the A&M game. I'll write some more about it later, but I think this is a stark reminder that the team is a work in progress.
Tigermax:
Check out this lede to the front page sports story in the State, 9/25:
The 28-year wait is over: South Carolina finally bagged its big-game trophy.(If your really into schadenfreude, read some of the posted comments at the the story)
Yes, those were heady days for Gamecrock fans--a win over #4 Ole Miss and a near victory over Georgia (on the road) the week before. Combined with the early season struggles of Clemson, the night of 9/25 must have felt like something of a watershed moment: the signal of the ascendancy of Gamekook football in the state of South Carolina.
Flash forward to today. Clemson has won six straight, riding an improbably realistic Heisman campaign into the ACC Championship game. South Carolina is in yet another mid-season swoon, losing what, 4 straight? (I've lost track). Meanwhile, Ole Miss and Georgia have both logged spectacularly average SEC seasons while South Carolina has been stomped by SEC "luminaries" Arkansas and Tennessee. Hey, at least you beat Vanderbilt. Yes, you beat a 2-10 team by the score of 14-10 at home. The old Spurrier teams would have lost that game.
I'm not going to offer any deep insight into the 2009 annual South Carolina midseason collapse (trademarked). That's because its really quite simple: they were never that good to begin with. Lots of close wins and losses in the early season obscured how average a team they really were. In fact, FEI ranks them the #50 team in the country. To give some context, Virginia is ranked #42. Yes, the defense grades out a strong #18, but they are killed by a #75 offense and awful special teams. And before any Gamecocks start grousing, FEI does take into account strength of schedule. You see, it may be hard to own up to, but the SEC is in the middle of a down year.
To be clear, the SEC is probably still a better conference top to bottom than the ACC. FEI has had a slight ACC-slant that we've documented here over the season. But the gap isn't as large as some might think. The ACC has a lot of programs trending in the right direction while the SEC has a quite a few teams trending in the wrong direction.
Also to be clear, I think South Carolina has more talent on defense than Virginia. They lack talented depth, however, which is what keeps them from being a nationally-feared defense on the level of, let me just pick a random team here, I don't know: Clemson. Yeah, that's a good defense.
Clemson has some concerns. The white elephant in the room is the health of CJ Spiller. He's looked progressively worse over the last 3-4 weeks, and we could really use him to take advantage in the special teams game. Also, while the offense's performance against Virginia was encouraging, I anticipate South Carolina will be a bit more physical; they should be up to stopping the run at least in the early going.
If Clemson keeps the game close in the first half, I think they run away in the second half. The South Carolina defense is too thin, and their crappy kicking and coverage game coupled with Spurrier's oversized ego almost ensures Spiller and Ford deliver excellent field position. Hope you're ready for a breakout road performance, Richard Jackson.
Clemben:
I peaked at quite a few South Carolina games this season. I think they are a decent team. They are probably as talented, if not slightly more than last year's team USuCk team (last years team was hopelessly selfish and fractured in the locker room however, Spurrier really 'lost' that team). I think it really begins at QB for the shamecocks and Garcia. I am absolutely shocked that he hasnt been injured this year. I have seen him make a bunch of gutsy/stupid plays, hurling himself into the air. He is durable and has some moxie, other USC QB's had arms but would predictably and almost comically turn the ball over. Garcia's maturation has been notable.
Next Alshon Jeffery is really good. Watching out redshirt freshman WR's struggle and then watching true freshman Jeffery run routes and catch some great balls has been frustrating. If he goes to the real 'USC', where he was committed to up until the end, USuCk isnt close to the team they are on offense. I wont argue with a coot on this one, I hope he takes off to the NFL asap. This season we are fine with our secondary, although in the past couple of games we have been giving up a few too many chunk yardage plays. (haha, how did chunk yards get in the vernacular??) Few interceptions
Lastly I really like some of the defensive talent along the line that Skarelina has amassed. The health of Cliff Matthews is a big issue, Geathers is really developing and Ladi can be a beast. This will be a good barometer for how much our OLine has improved. You'll remember that last year we were able to push around their D-Line before running into trouble with a boy named Suh in the gator bowl.
So what will be the difference in this game. I think it will be a ten point game...and of course I think we will win. The LB's need to have a better game, would really like to land Justin Parker but that keeps getting more difficult. The game comes down to third down conversions. We have gotten much better throughout our winning streak in converting third downs. If we can demoralize WBrice prison early then the place will be empty by the fourth quarter. Remember when Spurrier gave up last year, conceded the game? Cant wait to see that again...6-6 and the independence bowl?? Now that is just one season away!! Clemson 27-17
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