Tigermax:
As many have pointed out, the outcome of this game will hinge on whether Clemson's pass defense can slow FSU's pass attack. FSU has the same caliber of players in key skill positions as Miami and they will find the endzone, it's just a matter of limiting the total number of times. I'll be watching to see if Clemson's second level can improve their routes to the ball-carrier and to wrap-up when tackling. Keep in mind, though, this is a group of talented kids who are good at making people miss. Clemson needs to minimize the big plays, not completely eliminate them.
I would posit that Clemson's success will also rest on how disciplined the FSU defense plays. FSU's defense has talented individuals, but in the NC State game last Saturday (emblematic of most of the season for FSU) they constantly beat themselves with senseless penalties, poor tackling, and by pursuing the big play. All of these conspired time and again to turn small gains into huge plays. If Mickey Andrews rallies the troops in the wake of his retirement announcement, Clemson's offense could be in for a rougher-than-expected time. With that caveat aside, however, as I mentioned yesterday FSU is ranked #98 in defense efficiency by FEI--far and away the worst in the ACC (Duke clocks in next at #74). Normally I would be hopeful that we could use this to sustain long and productive drives, but since FSU's defense has the tendency to give up yardage in chunks I'll instead look for Clemson to keep using the big play to propel them to the scoreboard...
One thing to watch for this weekend: if you've seen FSU this season, you know they have a pretty good kicking game. FPA, or field position average, is a pretty good proxy for measuring special teams strength. Three teams in the ACC are heads and shoulders above the rest of the league: Clemson (10th in the country), Virginia Tech (13th), and FSU (16th). One thing Clemson probably won't be able to do is rely on the kicking/return game to get them superior field position; expect this to be about even.
Clemson is in the middle of a three game ACC stretch playing teams with similar general profiles--good to great offenses with average to below-average defenses (although you can argue Miami's defense is underrated). I just mention this to stress that just as Miami was the mild favorite against Clemson two Saturdays ago and wound up on the short end of a close loss, Clemson's slight edge against FSU going into the weekend could just as easily disappear on the strength of a last-second Christian Ponder touchdown toss.
Clemben:
I remember at the beginning of the season how FSU had lost all of its receivers and how this was going to hurt them on offense. Is Ponder just that good? Is Jimbo that good an OC? Man, whipping a bunch of no name WR's into shape is a skill I wish we would acquire and quickly. I cant shake the same feeling I had last year when we played FSU. Ponder is going to run all over us, we will put up a good fight but come up short. I still think we had superior talent to them last year but we lost. This year they have virtually the same offense but their secondary has stunk. They dont have the DE's like last year and this game is at home. Oh and we are slowly learning how to use Spiller (better late than never).
I like that the game is at home, and the place will be rocking. We need to neutralize some of Ponders audibles at the line. Man I hate that guy. We are at home so I say we win 34-30. But its all because of this...
Yes its the Clemson Surge but I thought we needed as 'Orange Surge' for the All In, All Orange game today!! And yes, I think the Clemson Surge, drawing upon a failed caffeinated beverage is absolutely pure genius...Go Tigers!!
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