South Carolina Preview

Clemson vs. South Carolina, 11/28, 12:00pm, Williams-Brice Stadium

This will be pretty short, I'm still trying to shake the disappointment of the A&M game. I'll write some more about it later, but I think this is a stark reminder that the team is a work in progress.

Tigermax:

Check out this lede to the front page sports story in the State, 9/25:

The 28-year wait is over: South Carolina finally bagged its big-game trophy.

(If your really into schadenfreude, read some of the posted comments at the the story)

Yes, those were heady days for Gamecrock fans--a win over #4 Ole Miss and a near victory over Georgia (on the road) the week before. Combined with the early season struggles of Clemson, the night of 9/25 must have felt like something of a watershed moment: the signal of the ascendancy of Gamekook football in the state of South Carolina.

Flash forward to today. Clemson has won six straight, riding an improbably realistic Heisman campaign into the ACC Championship game. South Carolina is in yet another mid-season swoon, losing what, 4 straight? (I've lost track). Meanwhile, Ole Miss and Georgia have both logged spectacularly average SEC seasons while South Carolina has been stomped by SEC "luminaries" Arkansas and Tennessee. Hey, at least you beat Vanderbilt. Yes, you beat a 2-10 team by the score of 14-10 at home. The old Spurrier teams would have lost that game.

I'm not going to offer any deep insight into the 2009 annual South Carolina midseason collapse (trademarked). That's because its really quite simple: they were never that good to begin with. Lots of close wins and losses in the early season obscured how average a team they really were. In fact, FEI ranks them the #50 team in the country. To give some context, Virginia is ranked #42. Yes, the defense grades out a strong #18, but they are killed by a #75 offense and awful special teams. And before any Gamecocks start grousing, FEI does take into account strength of schedule. You see, it may be hard to own up to, but the SEC is in the middle of a down year.

To be clear, the SEC is probably still a better conference top to bottom than the ACC. FEI has had a slight ACC-slant that we've documented here over the season. But the gap isn't as large as some might think. The ACC has a lot of programs trending in the right direction while the SEC has a quite a few teams trending in the wrong direction.

Also to be clear, I think South Carolina has more talent on defense than Virginia. They lack talented depth, however, which is what keeps them from being a nationally-feared defense on the level of, let me just pick a random team here, I don't know: Clemson. Yeah, that's a good defense.

Clemson has some concerns. The white elephant in the room is the health of CJ Spiller. He's looked progressively worse over the last 3-4 weeks, and we could really use him to take advantage in the special teams game. Also, while the offense's performance against Virginia was encouraging, I anticipate South Carolina will be a bit more physical; they should be up to stopping the run at least in the early going.

If Clemson keeps the game close in the first half, I think they run away in the second half. The South Carolina defense is too thin, and their crappy kicking and coverage game coupled with Spurrier's oversized ego almost ensures Spiller and Ford deliver excellent field position. Hope you're ready for a breakout road performance, Richard Jackson.

Clemben:

I peaked at quite a few South Carolina games this season. I think they are a decent team. They are probably as talented, if not slightly more than last year's team USuCk team (last years team was hopelessly selfish and fractured in the locker room however, Spurrier really 'lost' that team). I think it really begins at QB for the shamecocks and Garcia. I am absolutely shocked that he hasnt been injured this year. I have seen him make a bunch of gutsy/stupid plays, hurling himself into the air. He is durable and has some moxie, other USC QB's had arms but would predictably and almost comically turn the ball over. Garcia's maturation has been notable.

Next Alshon Jeffery is really good. Watching out redshirt freshman WR's struggle and then watching true freshman Jeffery run routes and catch some great balls has been frustrating. If he goes to the real 'USC', where he was committed to up until the end, USuCk isnt close to the team they are on offense. I wont argue with a coot on this one, I hope he takes off to the NFL asap. This season we are fine with our secondary, although in the past couple of games we have been giving up a few too many chunk yardage plays. (haha, how did chunk yards get in the vernacular??) Few interceptions

Lastly I really like some of the defensive talent along the line that Skarelina has amassed. The health of Cliff Matthews is a big issue, Geathers is really developing and Ladi can be a beast. This will be a good barometer for how much our OLine has improved. You'll remember that last year we were able to push around their D-Line before running into trouble with a boy named Suh in the gator bowl.

So what will be the difference in this game. I think it will be a ten point game...and of course I think we will win. The LB's need to have a better game, would really like to land Justin Parker but that keeps getting more difficult. The game comes down to third down conversions. We have gotten much better throughout our winning streak in converting third downs. If we can demoralize WBrice prison early then the place will be empty by the fourth quarter. Remember when Spurrier gave up last year, conceded the game? Cant wait to see that again...6-6 and the independence bowl?? Now that is just one season away!! Clemson 27-17

Virginia Preview

Virginia vs. Clemson, 11/21, 3:30pm, Death Valley

Tigermax:

Clemson very well may have clinched the division before taking the field, I think UNC stands a pretty good chance of beating BC. I don't suspect this will affect Clemson too much, what with Senior Day and Motivator-in-chief Swinney firing up the team before the game. Virginia features an above average defense, but they also feature quite likely the league's worst offense. In a general sense, this reminds me of the Boston College game: tough defense, offense is a work-in-progress, largely conservative head coaching philosophy, and big players who play physically. Two key differences, though: BC sports a defense that matches anyone in the nation while Virginia's is merely excellent in the context of the league and Virginia's offense has played the same way BC played against us in every game of the season.

The only way I see us losing this Saturday is if the following three unlikelihoods were to inexplicably collide: 1) our offense reverts to pre-Maryland form in the face of a big, physical defense, 2) Richard Jackson still can't kick a thirty-five yard field goal, and 3) our defense puts up an utterly average effort similar to last Saturday. I can see one or two of the above possible happening, but not all three. I'm cautiously optimistic we'll be celebrating the first ACC division title in Clemson history come Saturday evening. (Just to keep things in perspective, though, the last time I was this confident was before the Maryland game.)

GO TIGERS!!!!

Clemben:

I personally want BC just to lose. Yeah, all that stuff about earning it is great, and the players should have that mentality but as a fan still recovering from ghosts of Bowden past--I am more than willing to go to the ACC Champs bc someone other than us (BC no less), lost. But I'm afraid we come out with almost too much intensity again and make some defensive mistakes. We really need to get this kicking thing squared away before USuck and GT. Virginia has some really good linebacker play so they will challenge KP with a new 3-4 look. Hopefully we can not turn the ball over.

Also I will be watching to see how the O line responds with Austin having a bad ankle. This is essentially the line we will have next year so hopefully Cloy can fill that void. Speaking of OLineman--we lost former 4 star recruit Kenneth Page who never really asserted himself after coming to Clemson with a bad shoulder and JK Jay is still dealing with an ailing back. I heard he needs another surgery which is never good. He really is a great person though so if you get a chance drop him a line of encouragement on his facebook or something. We need him to shore up Tackle depth and push the starters. Again, thank you David Smith for panning out.

Oh yeah, so Virginia...Tigers roll...

P.S. I told you North Carolina was overrated in bball. Too many white guys on the team...haha. Shaky guard play, no three point shooting. Relying on Ginyard's offensive production?? Ed Davis looking weak in the post...yep I told you so...Clemson has its best chance to take the ACC, umm...ever??

FSU Recap

Weeell that was fun. Going to make this quick, I'm fightin' off the flu here and my thoughts are kinda muddled. Might update later if something makes no sense when I re-read it in a couple of days.

First off, the entire game I was alternating between two discrete states of mind--one, I thought we were clearly the superior team through all four quarters and kept expecting us to pull away at the start of every drive. Two, I was thinking this was Bowden-redux and we were going to lose a game we should have sealed up at the beginning of the second half as we tried and tried to give the game away. But then, in the fourth quarter, after we got the Hall pick/ridiculous break on the Hall fumble followed by the TD that put us up 27-21, I was suddenly locked into mind state #1. We started our next drive on our own 27 after an FSU punt. In the Spence/Bowden days (mindset #2, remember), a drive with about 7:00 minutes to go in the game while holding a 6 point lead in a big game meant we would call the most conservative plays possible. Three runs up the middle to take time off the clock before punting it back to other team. This had two side-effects: 1) ticking off the entire educated fanbase and 2) inoculating a generation of fans against the possibility of the run-away victory. Today we finally got that run-away victory in a big game, in large part because we took the same approach as we had the entire game on offense, driving 73 yards on 6 plays in 3:39 seconds for the touchdown to seal it.

Offense
Playcalling was generally fine. Against a team that gives up big plays, we looked for the big plays. I'm mildly surprised it took us 2 quarters to find Spiller on a wheel route for a touchdown, but hey, can't complain--nothing wrong with keeping something like that in your back pocket for when you might need it. Made some stupid mistakes (penalties inside the 5-inch line, the Parker fumble) early after we got it in close which kept us from piling up the first half points. I actually think this was a better game for Parker than the Miami game. Yes, he inexplicably threw behind a couple of guys, and there was the terrible, terrible interception when the route was just jumped and the insane fumble on the five-yard line. But for the most part, probably becuase he had loads of time from FSU's non-existent pass-rush, he looked comfortable, had good pocket presence, and even appeared to at least try and make reads of the defense and cycle through his receivers. He still made some bad decisions early on by forcing it into coverege deep when he had guys open underneath, but the lesson from today is that maybe Parker can develop into something--at least when he has time in the pocket.

O-line played very well, but it was against one of the worst defenses in the country, much less the league. Viewed in that light, the run-blocking was hit or miss early on, which is a little discouraging. But it was nice to see the line get some push in the red zone a couple of times and spring Spiller and Ellington with some nice holes.

Receivers are finally starting to catch the ball, the only drop I remember was Ford, and he's been the least of Clemson's problems to this point. I still don't see great route-running, and a team that plays tighter coverage is still going to knock the ball out but hey, small steps I guess. Some great individual efforts on throws underneath that got key first downs. Part of that can be attributed to FSU's horrible tackling, but at least we have the athleticism at WR to make plays occasionally.

Defense
Hats off to the secondary. If you would have told me that we would be without Butler and Chancellor for a significant part of the second half, I'd have thrown up my hands and waited for you to tell me how bad the final score was. The coaches made some fine adjustments: it looked like our CBs were instructed to back off a little, with instructions to keep the play in front of you but allow no yards after catch. McDaniel & co. delivered--I don't remember any receivers for FSU picking up yards after the catch after the first half. This extended drives and allowed the FSU to beat themselves, either through Ponder's baffling interceptions or through poor playcalling--the reverse that went for -14 yards. (Granted, if they don't muff the pitch there it might score a touchdown but it was still a risky call...)

Tackling watch: thought it was a pretty good effort, couple of times we looked bad going for the strip but still managed to limit the damage in those cases. Definitely a concerted upgrade over the Miami game despite facing the same caliber of talent.

Special Teams
Coverage has slackened a bit since the first few weeks, FSU's first punt return was ugly. Not sure what's going on here--they have sent more pressure recently but I don't think that was the case this time...have to check the tape on that one. Other than that, the announcers were talking ad nauseum about what we've been saying for the whole season--with a tandem like Ford and Spiller back to receive kicks, they don't have to kick it to you for good results. There just aren't that many punters at this level capable of hitting the coffin corners. Couple that with the rise in the rugby-style punt and you have a terrifying combination for Clemson opponents.

We finally managed to down a punt inside the five despite multiple opportunities to this point, but with nobody watching the ball come down, we still barely managed to run it down from behind. Really, it should have been fair-caught by the FSU return man, no way that ball was first bouncing inside the ten.

Finally, the kicking game. Richard Jackson is going to miss kicks. I think the early season streak might have raised unreasonable expectations for him, I'm certainly guilty of hyping him up. I'd still say the combination of his leg strength and accuracy makes hime one of the best kickers Clemson has seen in a while, but he's going to have games like this. I didn't like the call to replace him with Benton for the one PAT attempt. This isn't the pros, where one missed PAT is grounds for dismissal--he's got to be allowed to work through his misses. Luckily, it didn't come back to bite us and hopefully we look back on this as a weird aberration that mirrors that bizarre FSU game from 2006. At least this time it was the kicker and not a Bowden-era problem with the kicks being blocked, which is the only thing more infuriating.

Major Coaching Decisions
Outside of the Benton PAT kick, fantastic job. Execution cures a lot of play-calling problems, and this is what has improved the most in my mind. We still get individuals making stupid mistakes, which reflects indirectly on the coaching staff, but with the exception of run-blocking and WR route-taking, most of the systematic problems have been lessened. Great news, obviously. Perhaps even better is this suggests that we have a coaching staff capable of objectively reviewing the team and implementing in-season coaching adjustments.

I'll wrap this up by saying NC State is a classic trap game, particularly if we don't have Butler and/or Chancellor back. Motivator-in-chief Swinney need to be at the top of his game this week...

Halftime Ramblings

Watching on Espn 360, hey, I need a pair of Nike air Marauder? D's. They are light weight and crucial, aahahahaaah...So annoying every five seconds.

So the D looks good but BC is just pathetic on offense--even worse than I thought, but there D looks pretty good considering. CJ looks good but Parker has had some ugly throws. Coach Spaz sounded like he was going to yield after that inspiring interview. That guy is classic, Magnum PI.

The good things are that the O-line is looking decent today and some D Lineman--Sapp, Branch, Thompson, Goodman, look good rotating a lot of players. Hall, Gilchrist, and McDaniel look good too. We have had such good field position--we need to shed the Red zone woes of Spence and develop a killer instinct to get TD's not field goals--thank you Richard Jackson. Just hit a 52-yarder. Lovely.