I was browsing through Kenpom stats today when I noticed that the Hokies have a pitiful strength of schedule, ranking 91 for dead last in the ACC. Only Miami offers any competition, clocking in at 82. Virginia is next at 52 with the rest of the ACC teams cracking the top 40. NC State is at 39, Clemson is at 38.
I figured the disparity resulted from a weak non-conference schedule. Sure enough, VT ranks 327 in non-conference strength of schedule (out of 347 total teams). Truth be told, though, Clemson only ranks 249 this season and other ACC teams haven't exactly fielded a killer non-conference slate.
Then I looked at VT's in-conference schedule. Here's the list of teams they have played or will play twice this season:
NC State
North Carolina
Miami
Boston College
Virginia
You know what else that's a list of? Yeah, its the five worst teams according to the current standings of ACC teams, listed with the worst team first. These teams have combined for an astonishingly bad 18-42 record in conference play. VT has gone 6-2 in games against those teams so far. All hail the mighty Hokies and their sparkling 8-4 record!
Just for comparison, here's the list of teams Clemson is playing twice this season:
Duke
Maryland
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Boston College
All you would have to do is replace BC with Wake Forest and you'd have the exact inverse of VT's schedule.
Look, I understand that VT doesn't set the schedule and even if they did, there's no way anyone would have predicted the way the ACC would play out this season. But what I don't get is all the love VT is getting from everyone this year. They're still a fringe NCAA tournament-caliber team. I want another crack at them in the ACC tournament.
Showing posts with label schedule. Show all posts
Showing posts with label schedule. Show all posts
Tuesday, 23 February 2010
Thursday, 16 July 2009
Time to scrap the "natural rival"
In 2005, ACC football went to a two division format. Each team was given a "natural rival"--a team that they would play from the opposing division every year, alternating home and away sites. Now its been four full seasons, giving us a good opportunity to see how this scheduling system has been working out with each team having played 2 away and 2 home games against their designated rival. Just to quickly get an idea of how fair this system has been, I collected the winning percentages for each team (admittedly a poor proxy for team strength but useful for a quick look) in the conference for the past four years and ranked the teams according to the success of their rival:
What immediately jumps out is the remarkable parity in the relative success of almost every team's rival. Just going up and down the list, you can see that most rival teams are usually adjacent, and sport win percentages that match-up closely. I think this has the tendency to blunt any advantage of a team over another. In other words, since Clemson is no more likely to beat their rival then say, Maryland is to beat Virginia, no one is really at an advantage.
Unfortunately, there is one exception: Wake Forest. WF has a ridiculous competitive advantage right now over the other teams in the Atlantic Division. Really, though, the ACC is probably lucky that only one team is at an advantage right now relative to the others. In a system like this, its likely the conference ultimately ends up in a situation where several teams are benefiting from a weak rival, putting the other competing teams at a disadvantage. The ACC should give some serious thought to scrapping the "natural rival" and rotating through three teams in a given season instead of just two. This wouldn't eliminate scheduling disadvantages from year-to-year (inevitable with a unbalanced schedule), but strength of schedule should at least more or less even out over time.
If any team starts crying over losing their precious rivalry, its probably time to start talking division realignment. Something has to be done, the other teams in the Atlantic Division can't afford to keep spotting Wake Forest a game every year.
What immediately jumps out is the remarkable parity in the relative success of almost every team's rival. Just going up and down the list, you can see that most rival teams are usually adjacent, and sport win percentages that match-up closely. I think this has the tendency to blunt any advantage of a team over another. In other words, since Clemson is no more likely to beat their rival then say, Maryland is to beat Virginia, no one is really at an advantage.
Unfortunately, there is one exception: Wake Forest. WF has a ridiculous competitive advantage right now over the other teams in the Atlantic Division. Really, though, the ACC is probably lucky that only one team is at an advantage right now relative to the others. In a system like this, its likely the conference ultimately ends up in a situation where several teams are benefiting from a weak rival, putting the other competing teams at a disadvantage. The ACC should give some serious thought to scrapping the "natural rival" and rotating through three teams in a given season instead of just two. This wouldn't eliminate scheduling disadvantages from year-to-year (inevitable with a unbalanced schedule), but strength of schedule should at least more or less even out over time.
If any team starts crying over losing their precious rivalry, its probably time to start talking division realignment. Something has to be done, the other teams in the Atlantic Division can't afford to keep spotting Wake Forest a game every year.
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