Thoughts on the Draft

As far as I can see, the current tally is:

• 4 drafted (#103, #165, #166, #195)
• 3 signed in free agency
• 1 invited to minor league camp

Gauging the chatter out in the blogosphere I think its safe to say this year's draft has been perceived as being somewhat disappointing for Clemson as a program. I agree to an extent, but most of what I've read focuses on the lack of high picks. Its true Clemson can't point to a potential impact player, i.e. a player we can hope is starting at some point this year or even next, but four total players is nothing to shake a fist at. I think its easy to argue this year's draft was more of a success than 2008's draft, where we got just the #32 and #170 picks, or maybe even the 2006 draft (#15, #81, and #241) or 2005 draft (#57, #98, #140). Yeah, this was not the best draft year ever for Clemson, but we've had worse years.

I think the angst surrounding this year's draft might be a little misdirected (as angst typically is). For me personally, I think what stings the most is that basically NFL scouts, after poring over miles of videotape, are affirming the field performance of the 2008-2009 team. Its not that we were just poorly coached or had bad chemistry or whatever, we just didn't have the kind of elite talent we thought we had, or at least were led to believe we had. A couple of disclaimers to this feeling that I haven't been able to shake since the draft; first, I realize the college game and pro game in a lot of ways are quite different entities at their core, and what makes a college player special isn't going to necessarily predict success in the NFL (see Reggie Bush, or closer to home, CJ Spiller). Second, the NFL scouts get it wrong, all of the time. Draft busts are common, and to a lesser extent a lot of sleeper players emerge as success stories (case in point: Clemson's own Leroy Hill was drafted #98 in 2005 by the Seahawks and as a starting rookie was a key cog in the rebuilding of a defense that ended up reaching the Super Bowl).

Still, despite the disclaimers, its hard to look at this and not conclude that there really wasn't the level of elite talent a lot of people, myself included, were anticipating. This time last year, I would have told you I expected at least two players on the first day (Davis and Scott, maybe Jackson), and then possibly a couple more in Round 3 (two of Kelly, Clemons, Hamlin). Yeah, that's definitely a Clemson fanboy and not an analytical scout talking (and of course the injury likely affected Jackson's stock significantly), but what exactly happened between this year and last?

I think one thing that gets lost in looking back to two years ago is how well the 2007-2008 squad played together. Sure, Clemson got unexpected career years out of Merling and Harper, but it still largely felt like a team playing a little better than the sum of its parts. But somehow, over the course of an offseason, I started believing that superior individual performances from certain players from the team left us the favorites in the ACC, despite what in retrospect look like glaring flaws in team construction (depleted LB core, woefully inexperienced OL). Obviously I blame myself primarily, but there was a lot of hype out there and I wonder if the coaching staff couldn't have done more to curtail expectations (and then they might still have had a job today). Does this indicate that the coaching staff lost control of the team and media messaging during the offseason?

I don't know, but that's enough looking back for now. I can only handle the pain in small doses.

Recruiting Round-up: #1 South Carolina

So to continue with the recruiting wrap up I wanted to first look at the great state of South Carolina. Some in the Clemson blogs have discussed and criticized the article I cited previously in SI.com about proximity being an indicator of how well a football team will perform. While I agree with some of the criticisms it seems obvious that you need to keep the best players in the 200 mile radius at home. We arent talking about increasing local recruiting just because of fan loyalty, we are talking about keeping top 100-150 players in the home state. By my account SC produced about five to seven of this caliber recruit this year and we got shut out on a lot of them. The recent trend has been in the past couple of years that Clemson takes the best recruit in the state-Bowers, Korn, Sapp, but these have fortunately been hard core automatic Clemson fans(with perhaps the exception of Sapp wavering in the end, contemplating FSU). We obviously did not get the top recruit in the state this year with Goodman(well I think he might be the top recruit), and Jay being our top recruits. I'm not going to go into the history too in-depth but its hard to argue that Clemson hasnt done an outstanding job especially in the past two years of keeping those top 150 kids in state. Of course we have given up a lot of talent to other programs that shouldnt have gotten away Dunlap, Epps, a whole bunch to FSU. So we have lost a lot of battles and talent. I really think that if Clemson could put a fence around the state of SC, despite the academic problems, and consistently beat out SC for all the top eight to ten players in the state we are talking legit national championship contention year in and year out. Historically there is the talent level.

This year we see a shift from pretty much dominating to giving up a whole lot. South Carolina got the two Jefferys and were very impressive in convincing Alshon to stay at home. So you give Carolina their automatics. But the battle for the rest is what was disappointing. Rock Hill turns out to be the last place we wanted Devonte Holloman to go when he changed schools. It was supposed to turn both Holloman and Gilmore over two us but with his decommit the two of them left to SC. Gilmore turns out to be the state player of the year. The other big loss was of Sam Montgomery who had his eyes set on going out of state perhaps from the beginning but neither we nor SC could keep him from joining our pal Craig Loston at LSU. Even after a mediocre season they get it done. I think its important too to give credit to our staff for holding on to JK Jay. If he goes to Georgia then I think the while class comes undone and we are left resorting to our fall back board and a lot of kids we didnt want.

Next year is no different but SC will be loaded with talent, its going to be a big year so its positive to note that if this was a good year to have only 15-17 schollies and we will want them all for the great crop coming in. We have to win the battles close to home. We have Martavis Bryant already, a potential five star WR, but the coots have their automatic recruit with Kelcy Quarles. The rest are up for grabs--should be a landmark year-one that will determine the course of the next three to five years, in both recruiting and our chance to win a natl championship. Glad to be a Tiger and not a coot. Glad CJ Spiller is back....

Recruiting Post-Mortem

Recently an article from SI.com talked about the relation between a college's ability to recruit close to home and its winning percentage. So if you can recruit your backyard(about a 200 mile proximity) you should be winning a lot of games. This is especially important for Clemson because it can get a little crowded when your backyard overlaps with a bunch of other ACC (NC, NC State, Duke, WF, GT) and SEC teams (Cootville, Georgia). I thought we would look at how we fared this year, especially looking towards 2010 and if this correlation will lead to an increase in victories.

I think we started this year with big plans and a vision for extending the scope and reach of our recruiting. We had the momentum coming into the season, the top ten ranking, and the expectation of the ACC championship and a BCS bowl game. The coaching staff bought into this and coupled with our increased effectiveness in places outside the 200 miles like Florida and Alabama, we expanded our reach. This all came to a crashing halt first in the Georgia Dome but really when the ACC championship seemed out of reach. So how did we fare despite the meltdown...I'm going to divide this into four seperate posts about the various states, South Carolina, NC, Georgia and all the rest.

In the mean time lets talk about what we got and how to divide recruits up. We pulled Malliciah Goodman and JK Jay who commited early, enrolled early and were the foundation for the class. If we lose JK after Bowden leaves to Georgia then this class wouldnt even look half the same. But these guys were also always Tigers--I would put McDowell in this same category as well. These are guys were born and bred Clemson fans--you have to get these kids. In past years we have done well and were fortunate to have top talent like this with Bowers, Korn and even Sapp. Likewise your going to have kids who grow up Coots and are going to go hang out with Micheal Phelps and get arrested. Some also are dead set on leaving the state to play with the supposed big time schools. Clemson needs to become that big time school and put a fence around its backyard. Where the battleground lies is all the rest in the middle because while SC has plenty of talent I'm not sure two teams can share it and make a run at a national championship.

I think we should be happy with the level of talent we got but it puts a lot of pressure on the class coming in. South Carolina did a good job of mooching off other schools and building some momentum despite the end of their season--loosing Mackey and Fields really hurts at the end but SC couldnt close on some key targets as well--Washington, Montgomery, getting away. Alshon Jefferey is the diamond though and to be a successful program you have to keep those top caliber prospects from jumping state and thats a big time program can do. Lucky for Clemson fans SC is still going to be known as the place where washed up coaches go to die(unfortuately some rise again and become ESPN talking heads).