Initial Thoughts on NCAA Selection/Tourney

In an effort to pack the first round with as many unnecessary subplots as possible, the selection committee is pitting Clemson against Missouri in the "Buffalo Battle of the Full-court Presses (TM)". I think Clemson as a seven seed is a bit of a stretch, they probably fit slightly better as an 8/9 seed while Missouri is probably feeling a bit puzzled they were selected as a 10 seed, I had them pegged as closer to a 7/8 seed. In that light, Clemson vs. Missouri probably makes the most sense when viewed as the fifth 8 vs. 9 game, with West Virginia as the fifth #1 seed.

It's interesting to get a second potential shot at playing WVU. I was pretty excited at the beginning of the season about the possibility of playing them in the second round of the 76 Classic, before Texas A&M handled us pretty easily in the opener. Despite the fact that WVU doesn't turn the ball over much, I don't think that would be a terrible matchup for us. Unfortunately, though, I don't share ClemBen's optimism below about the Missouri game. Without looking too deeply at the stats or tape, my initial impressions give us about a 15% chance at winning. As everyone in TigerTown knows by now, Mike Anderson's Mizzou Tigers play the entire length of the court just like Oliver Purnell. But don't get caught up in the "two teams playing the same style of basketball" talk. While they have a lot of similarities, it ain't hard to find differences, either. The most important difference: Missouri is reasonably good at holding on to the ball whereas Clemson is reasonably bad at holding on to the ball. In a matchup of two defenses that specialize in producing turnovers, which one do you think has the upper hand? This also explains why they ended up #13 on my "Matchups of Doom" list last week. In fact, I'd take it a step further and say this matchup is actually one of the worst possible for Clemson (outside of the Richmond Spiders), because almost all of the teams above Missouri are in the 1-5 range and we weren't going to play them in the first round anyway.

Now I'll bring up a personal anecdote to try and support why I have a lot of doubts about our chances against Missouri. I try to avoid these 'cause personal anecdotes are too often used as blunt instruments to try and bludgeon someone into believing your point-of-view ("but I was there, I saw what it was like...", etc.), but I think the stats back me up strongly in this case. Back in 2004, I happened to be vacationing in Hawaii and got hooked up with some tickets to watch Clemson play UAB in the first round of the Rainbow Classic (speaking of which, you were there ClemBen--I can't believe you've forgotten...hahaha). Clemson was in its second year with Oliver Purnell at the helm, and UAB in its third season under Mike Anderson, fresh off a surprise NCAA sweet sixteen run. It was a fun first half to watch, lots of fast play with both teams really hitting each other with the press, getting turnovers and occasionally run-outs. The second half, however, UAB came out strong and didn't let up--completely burying Clemson. I came away from the game with one impression: UAB won because ultimately they took better care of the basketball. Looking over the stats from the past eight years, I don't see anything that dissuades me from this initial impression. Mike Anderson's teams are traditionally strong in two areas: forcing turnovers and not yielding any turnovers. For whatever reason, to the increasingly maddening perspective of the Clemson fanbase, Oliver Purnell hasn't been as concerned with the latter. Its reached unbelievable heights this season, which is by far the worst season in terms of giving away the ball since the first year Purnell took over.

So unless we suddenly decide to stop giving away our possessions for no good reason, in all likelihood Oliver Purnell and the Tigers are looking at another first round exit. There are a few other wrinkles to the matchup (most of them favoring Missouri) and I'll try to go more into detail later in the week. But right now, some other quick, initial thoughts on the Tourney:

1) The selection committee didn't do a good job selecting the seeds, at least not as good as last year's effort. Not impressed at all.
2) No Elizabeth, you are not getting any hints from the website about which teams to pick (or not pick) this year. Your "victory" from last year is still under review by the rules committee, by the way...
3) While I don't agree some of the selection committee's seeds, I really don't have any problems with the Virginia Tech decision. Let's not forget that in addition to having a crazy weak out-of-conference schedule, they also had an incredibly weak in-conference schedule. The only downside to the decision is we have to listen to Seth Greenberg's annual ESPN whine-fest. I will personally send a $25 dollar check to any reporter who poses this simple question to Seth Greenberg: given VT's recent NCAA snubs and the consistent criticism accompanying these snubs regarding a weak out-of-conference schedule, why was Temple the only non-conference team you scheduled that could reasonably be considered a preseason favorite to get into the NCAA tournament? That's the only question needed to make the whining go away.
4) From Greenberg's Twitter feed, just before the selections were announced:

"Still holding out hope! Sad day for the ACC if a 10-6 third place team doesn't
get a bid".

First of all, it says a lot about your own mindset if you have to "hold out hope" after winning 10 conference games. Second, don't cry for the ACC--we got six teams into the Tournament, including the team that finished 7-9 in conference play. This doesn't look bad for the ACC, it reflects poorly on your program and its utter inability to construct a halfway decent tournament resume.

Texas A&M, 76 Classic Preview

Texas A&M vs. Clemson, 11/26, 4:30pm EST, Anaheim Convention Center

Clemson's consistency over the past few years has been rewarded with an invite to their toughest tournament field in recent memory. While I don't necessarily see any final four favorites in the field, four of the eight are easily NCAA tourney quality (West Virginia, Clemson, UCLA, Butler) with two more fringey teams that are more than capable of qualifying (Texas A&M, Minnesota). While the Minnesota/Butler game probably features the most evenly-matched teams, Texas A&M is no round one pushover, which should provide more than enough incentive to tear you away from Thanksgiving Dallas football.

A&M is coming off a mildly disappointing 2009 campaign. Last year they returned several key players from 2008 when they took eventual final four team UCLA to the limit in the sweet sixteen before coming up short, 61-59. In the conference tourney that year, they also pushed eventual national champion Kansas in the semifinals before losing 77-71. I haven't watched them enough to give definitive reasons why they struggled last season--Kenpom says their offense improved slightly but their defense, the cornerstone of the successful 2008 team, collapsed last year: dropping from #11 in the country to #81. Unfortunately for the Aggies, on paper it doesn't look like they are capable of bouncing all the way back this year. While they have a couple of experienced players, Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis, as well as sharp-shooter B.J. Holmes returning, they lost probably their best offensive threat in senior Josh Carter while their primary big man, Chinemelu Elonu, skipped his senior season to enter the NBA draft. Elonu, 6'10", was a beast on both glasses and blocked shots at a rate on par with Trevor Booker. Texas A&M will be looking for an inside presence to step up this season--but I can't imagine David Loubeau inspires confidence in A&M fans. They do have 7'0" James Blasczyk as a redshirt freshman, but he looks like the A&M Baciu. With Sloan, Davis, and Holmes A&M has the offense to win games, but right now I don't see where the defense will come from.

While its still early in the season to really judge an opposing team, I think A&M is a good matchup for Clemson. Their lack of defense, specifically the inability to force turnovers last year, is great news for our turnover-prone backcourt. Without Elonu they don't have a lot of height inside, so provided we can get the entry pass into Booker, he could put a lot of points on the board. Finally, our defense should be able to slow down an offense that tended to turn the ball over last year and also doesn't have an outstanding three-point threat outside of Sloan.

As for Clemson, they've looked good so far against inferior teams. (No, Winthrop has not been a good team since 2007.) Two minor(ish) red flags to watch out for, however. First, they've allowed the other team to steal the ball from them--not a good sign against that level of competition. Watch to see if Stitt and Young (who hasn't exactly shined early on despite my praises earlier) can keep possession on Thursday. Finally, and this hurts to say, but FT% is at 64.9%. Still better than the low-to-below 60% figure we ran out pre-2009, but below last year's 68.8% mark. This is a stat that tends to stabilize relatively quickly, so let's hope the FTs start falling.

If we get past A&M, and with some trepidation I'm gonna say we should, we'll likely face a well-rested West Virgina team. Since I'll probably be too busy to update the blog with a proper preview I'll just say that honestly, I'm not excited about playing a bruising Bob Huggins team--the risk for cheap injury is just too high. While WVU features a typically outstanding Huggins defense, it would be interesting to see how Clemson fares. WVU doesn't have a ton of height, so as long as Clemson can absorb some of the physicality (pin this hope on the Booker brothers), they might not be as affected as you might think. Hopefully we get the chance to see...

GO TIGERS!!!