- South Carolina's defense dominated with their pressure. Haven't seen this kind of Clemson O-line performance since the Maryland game. Not sure if it was Freeman or Austin bothered by injuries but we were getting beat bad. Matthews and Norwood are good athletes, but I don't think anyone expected them to completely have their way. It didn't help that we were pass-only mode after getting behind by so much.
- Whoever lost their assignment on the final SC touchdown play, that's a lose-your-scholarship kind of offense. You don't do that against your bitter rival, I don't care if the game is out of reach.
- Really the game was lost in the first half. Too many turnovers and stupid mistakes. If we hang onto the ball, we could have stayed with them on the scoreboard in spite of our defensive struggles.
- That being said, the offense was also hampered by some bad playcalling early on. We abandoned the run game in third and short, and SC was all over the short routes.
- The problems on defense that were manifest in the Virginia and N.C. State caught up with Clemson. We ran into a team that had the talent to consistently take advantage of our problems stopping the run.
- I know a lot of people expect us to do well against GT, but after this game I'm stuck wondering how we managed to hold them to 30 points last time.
- Hate to say it, but Carolina has put together a couple of good recruiting classes. Its not going to be easy in the next years.
- Just to echo ClemBen, can Brian Griese be any more of a complete tool? I know ESPN and the SEC have formed a pact (ESPN gets the SEC's support for the BCS through ESPN's BCS contract with the NCAA and the SEC gets an automatic birth in the championship game), but wasn't there another team playing Saturday? And didn't they have legitimate reasons to come out playing flat? I don't want excuses made by anyone for Clemson, but I'd expect the announcers to at least touch on their troubles in the last couple of weeks, instead of pretending that South Carolina came out of nowhere to run the ball on Clemson, thus proving the superiority of the SEC.
- Clemson's comeback against Butler saved this from being one of the worst sports weekends in recent memory. On top of the Gamecock debacle, the loss to A&M exposed some of the weaknesses of the basketball team that could hamper them for a while. Beating Butler gives us potentially a nice line on the tournament resume (although I'm not completely sold on Butler yet). I'll try and post something about the basketball team later in the week after I've settled down. Suffice it to say we only have two more chances to add to the non-conference resume: Illinois and South Carolina, with both games coming in the next seven days.
Monday, 30 November 2009
Saturday, 28 November 2009
Greise and Espn--that was nauseating how much SEC love can you cram into a single telecast. Hey maybe Clemson was looking ahead, or the two weeks of prep helped a lot?? We understand that your coverage is now skewed because of your fiduciary relationship but come on...
Why cant we defend the zone read? We always over pursue and make QB's look like Heisman candidates. Spiller's heisman candidacy just took a major blow--I'll be surprised if he makes it to New York now, he needed a big game and Ingram gave him the opening. Colt McCoy takes his turn so now Tebow, Bradford, and Colt are all happy.
What happened?? The Oline looked pathetic...Freeman hurt his ankle and it was all downhill from there. We lost the momentum with a stupid fumble by Harper...shades of Alabama, and then roughed the kicker on a great senior moment from Ricky Sapp. This is a rant so I am going to say it--I expected more from Sapp and Bowers with their time together at Clemson. Bowers knee injury has left him a little overweight and sluggish. Back to the Oline though, Fat Brad--what were you doing? Parker looked like a freshman at times bc when he has no time and feels the pressure on every play he loses his mechanics. He got it back on that last drive but I would have liked to see him tuck and run a few times to keep the d honest. Where was McDaniel--the few times I saw him he had a sack and key tackles...is the problem our LB's just arent athletic enough--getting blocked out of plays, not smart enough to position themselves correctly. Its the same thing each week....Maye, what is going on...
I dont know if I can just put this behind me, I kept waiting for a senior leader to get in some peoples faces and get fired up--it is against South Carolina...Clemson has lost some of the importance of this game--you dont lose to South Carolina...Dabo dont let this happen again...
There were far too few real hits--I mean Garcia is running right to you--give him a game changing lick, take him out of the game. How big is losing Gilmore and Holloman to SC, both Clemson leans at one point last year from Rock Hill, look right now...
Shameful display, we turned the season around and we still have a chance to go to the Orange bowl but it feels a little hollow losing to SC. At least right now--have fun at the independence, papajohns bowl Gamecocks...
Friday, 27 November 2009
This will be pretty short, I'm still trying to shake the disappointment of the A&M game. I'll write some more about it later, but I think this is a stark reminder that the team is a work in progress.
Check out this lede to the front page sports story in the State, 9/25:
The 28-year wait is over: South Carolina finally bagged its big-game trophy.(If your really into schadenfreude, read some of the posted comments at the the story)
Yes, those were heady days for Gamecrock fans--a win over #4 Ole Miss and a near victory over Georgia (on the road) the week before. Combined with the early season struggles of Clemson, the night of 9/25 must have felt like something of a watershed moment: the signal of the ascendancy of Gamekook football in the state of South Carolina.
Flash forward to today. Clemson has won six straight, riding an improbably realistic Heisman campaign into the ACC Championship game. South Carolina is in yet another mid-season swoon, losing what, 4 straight? (I've lost track). Meanwhile, Ole Miss and Georgia have both logged spectacularly average SEC seasons while South Carolina has been stomped by SEC "luminaries" Arkansas and Tennessee. Hey, at least you beat Vanderbilt. Yes, you beat a 2-10 team by the score of 14-10 at home. The old Spurrier teams would have lost that game.
I'm not going to offer any deep insight into the 2009 annual South Carolina midseason collapse (trademarked). That's because its really quite simple: they were never that good to begin with. Lots of close wins and losses in the early season obscured how average a team they really were. In fact, FEI ranks them the #50 team in the country. To give some context, Virginia is ranked #42. Yes, the defense grades out a strong #18, but they are killed by a #75 offense and awful special teams. And before any Gamecocks start grousing, FEI does take into account strength of schedule. You see, it may be hard to own up to, but the SEC is in the middle of a down year.
To be clear, the SEC is probably still a better conference top to bottom than the ACC. FEI has had a slight ACC-slant that we've documented here over the season. But the gap isn't as large as some might think. The ACC has a lot of programs trending in the right direction while the SEC has a quite a few teams trending in the wrong direction.
Also to be clear, I think South Carolina has more talent on defense than Virginia. They lack talented depth, however, which is what keeps them from being a nationally-feared defense on the level of, let me just pick a random team here, I don't know: Clemson. Yeah, that's a good defense.
Clemson has some concerns. The white elephant in the room is the health of CJ Spiller. He's looked progressively worse over the last 3-4 weeks, and we could really use him to take advantage in the special teams game. Also, while the offense's performance against Virginia was encouraging, I anticipate South Carolina will be a bit more physical; they should be up to stopping the run at least in the early going.
If Clemson keeps the game close in the first half, I think they run away in the second half. The South Carolina defense is too thin, and their crappy kicking and coverage game coupled with Spurrier's oversized ego almost ensures Spiller and Ford deliver excellent field position. Hope you're ready for a breakout road performance, Richard Jackson.
I peaked at quite a few South Carolina games this season. I think they are a decent team. They are probably as talented, if not slightly more than last year's team USuCk team (last years team was hopelessly selfish and fractured in the locker room however, Spurrier really 'lost' that team). I think it really begins at QB for the shamecocks and Garcia. I am absolutely shocked that he hasnt been injured this year. I have seen him make a bunch of gutsy/stupid plays, hurling himself into the air. He is durable and has some moxie, other USC QB's had arms but would predictably and almost comically turn the ball over. Garcia's maturation has been notable.
Next Alshon Jeffery is really good. Watching out redshirt freshman WR's struggle and then watching true freshman Jeffery run routes and catch some great balls has been frustrating. If he goes to the real 'USC', where he was committed to up until the end, USuCk isnt close to the team they are on offense. I wont argue with a coot on this one, I hope he takes off to the NFL asap. This season we are fine with our secondary, although in the past couple of games we have been giving up a few too many chunk yardage plays. (haha, how did chunk yards get in the vernacular??) Few interceptions
Lastly I really like some of the defensive talent along the line that Skarelina has amassed. The health of Cliff Matthews is a big issue, Geathers is really developing and Ladi can be a beast. This will be a good barometer for how much our OLine has improved. You'll remember that last year we were able to push around their D-Line before running into trouble with a boy named Suh in the gator bowl.
So what will be the difference in this game. I think it will be a ten point game...and of course I think we will win. The LB's need to have a better game, would really like to land Justin Parker but that keeps getting more difficult. The game comes down to third down conversions. We have gotten much better throughout our winning streak in converting third downs. If we can demoralize WBrice prison early then the place will be empty by the fourth quarter. Remember when Spurrier gave up last year, conceded the game? Cant wait to see that again...6-6 and the independence bowl?? Now that is just one season away!! Clemson 27-17
Thursday, 26 November 2009
Our press has been fine and we havent been able to set it up much but our halfcourt D has been porous and frankly pathetic. We are not rotating to defend the three, we are a bunch of passive wimps on the boards and not rotating for backside help. I think it has to do with freshman playing tentatively and playing like they are in high school.
On offense--I like Tanner Smith as a player, as a glue player but when he is your primary offensive threat then you are in trouble. He doesnt finish around the rim or rebound with enough authority yet. Grant disappeared and Young was not his usual proficient self. We really dont have the three point shooting right now to consistently stretch the defense. The loss of Oglesby is looking like a bigger deal all the time. I was surprised that we didnt look as athletic as I thought we would.
Bottom line is I dont think we are nearly this bad, A&M is nothing special I am afraid and if we cant win this game then we need to re-evaluate this season and lower expectations. Of course, this is a young team and we obviously have a lot of work to do. I have said this would be a work in progress year but I didnt think it would be starting at such an elementary level...
Wednesday, 25 November 2009
If CJ can keep scoring touchdowns and have two big all purpose games he goes to NY but its hanging by a string right now. I think they invite 4, Tebow, Colt, Ingram (I have never actually seen his face), and either Spiller, the Stanford rb, or the Houston QB. The Boise State QB is good too but just a sophmore. The Pitt RB is a longshot right now. It really does come down to who can help their team to a BCS bowl game, win out, and put up decent numbers.
Happy Thanksgiving!! When we go around the table I am giving thanks for CJ Spiller and Clemson Tiger athletics. I suggest we all give thanks for the prospect of a banner year for Clemson sports.
Clemson's consistency over the past few years has been rewarded with an invite to their toughest tournament field in recent memory. While I don't necessarily see any final four favorites in the field, four of the eight are easily NCAA tourney quality (West Virginia, Clemson, UCLA, Butler) with two more fringey teams that are more than capable of qualifying (Texas A&M, Minnesota). While the Minnesota/Butler game probably features the most evenly-matched teams, Texas A&M is no round one pushover, which should provide more than enough incentive to tear you away from Thanksgiving Dallas football.
A&M is coming off a mildly disappointing 2009 campaign. Last year they returned several key players from 2008 when they took eventual final four team UCLA to the limit in the sweet sixteen before coming up short, 61-59. In the conference tourney that year, they also pushed eventual national champion Kansas in the semifinals before losing 77-71. I haven't watched them enough to give definitive reasons why they struggled last season--Kenpom says their offense improved slightly but their defense, the cornerstone of the successful 2008 team, collapsed last year: dropping from #11 in the country to #81. Unfortunately for the Aggies, on paper it doesn't look like they are capable of bouncing all the way back this year. While they have a couple of experienced players, Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis, as well as sharp-shooter B.J. Holmes returning, they lost probably their best offensive threat in senior Josh Carter while their primary big man, Chinemelu Elonu, skipped his senior season to enter the NBA draft. Elonu, 6'10", was a beast on both glasses and blocked shots at a rate on par with Trevor Booker. Texas A&M will be looking for an inside presence to step up this season--but I can't imagine David Loubeau inspires confidence in A&M fans. They do have 7'0" James Blasczyk as a redshirt freshman, but he looks like the A&M Baciu. With Sloan, Davis, and Holmes A&M has the offense to win games, but right now I don't see where the defense will come from.
While its still early in the season to really judge an opposing team, I think A&M is a good matchup for Clemson. Their lack of defense, specifically the inability to force turnovers last year, is great news for our turnover-prone backcourt. Without Elonu they don't have a lot of height inside, so provided we can get the entry pass into Booker, he could put a lot of points on the board. Finally, our defense should be able to slow down an offense that tended to turn the ball over last year and also doesn't have an outstanding three-point threat outside of Sloan.
As for Clemson, they've looked good so far against inferior teams. (No, Winthrop has not been a good team since 2007.) Two minor(ish) red flags to watch out for, however. First, they've allowed the other team to steal the ball from them--not a good sign against that level of competition. Watch to see if Stitt and Young (who hasn't exactly shined early on despite my praises earlier) can keep possession on Thursday. Finally, and this hurts to say, but FT% is at 64.9%. Still better than the low-to-below 60% figure we ran out pre-2009, but below last year's 68.8% mark. This is a stat that tends to stabilize relatively quickly, so let's hope the FTs start falling.
If we get past A&M, and with some trepidation I'm gonna say we should, we'll likely face a well-rested West Virgina team. Since I'll probably be too busy to update the blog with a proper preview I'll just say that honestly, I'm not excited about playing a bruising Bob Huggins team--the risk for cheap injury is just too high. While WVU features a typically outstanding Huggins defense, it would be interesting to see how Clemson fares. WVU doesn't have a ton of height, so as long as Clemson can absorb some of the physicality (pin this hope on the Booker brothers), they might not be as affected as you might think. Hopefully we get the chance to see...
Sunday, 22 November 2009
To be clear, not tryin' to shortchange Swinney, Napier, Steele, and everyone else here--they did a fantastic job. The next two years will give us a better idea of the direction the program will take as Swinney starts to shape it according to his ideal...but for now we can rejoice that Swinney was able to do more with essentially the same talent as his predecessor, and that's great news that could lead to many happy days ahead for the team and its fans. And guys, I would really appreciate it if you can remove the 18-year weight I've been carrying around in two weeks by beating GT.
Now, the game...not the prettiest sight in the world, I'm glad we had things locked up or I would have been way too emotionally invested for a game against 3-7 Virginia. This is the second straight game we can attribute the ease of victory to to the offense. It wasn't perfect, the already much-maligned fourth down call and more glaringly the inability to put together a clock-killing drive in the fourth quarter stand out as negatives. I'm thinking the plan was to try and give Spiller as many yards as he could gather in the fourth quarter, but Virginia's defense isn't going to give up too many yards to our O-line when they know the run is coming. I'm not even sure this was even a good idea to begin with, Spiller is progressively getting less and less mobile each week. But I nitpick. When Kyle Parker hits his first 12 (?) passes, things are clicking and we're probably on our way to putting plenty of points on the board.
I have to sympathize with the defense quite a bit, Al Groh and Gregg Brandon threw the entire playbook at them in the first half (after the first drive). I'm not sure why Virginia slowed down in the second half, although they might simply have run out of unorthodox plays to run. What this game shows is that our defense is still most vulnerable to a strong running game between the tackles, the "trick" plays Virginia ran were all set up by strong running (part of that was the wildcat--as an aside, good to get a dose of it now 'cause we could be seeing it in a not-to-distant bowl game). A lot of this was enabled partly by overpursuit by Clemson LBs (again), not to mention some stupid penalties. Maye always seems to find a way to redeem himself, though, that helmet on the football-forcing-fumble was a thing of beauty.
That's enough. Its time to bask--we captured the Atlantic Division! And next week we extend our win streak to 7 games by throttling our "rival" downstate.
Saturday, 21 November 2009
What is going on at the half against Virginia?? Groh and his coaches are playing and play calling with nothing to lose. We can not defend the wildcat/mobile Qb for the life of us. I'm just sick...this wont get it done against USuCk or GT. Defense isnt getting penetration and is getting out schemed. That wheel route at the end was inexcusable.
Ron Cherry you've outdone yourself...I know you threw that intl grounding flag and then had to be talked out of it. A penalty for saluting the crowd?? What is this Communist Russia?
We are moving the ball well and putting up points other than that awful fourth down call on the early turnover. I like going for it on fourth but not on the roll out--Parker didnt know where he was going. But man, what a pass to Jacoby in the endzone...Can we retire the word trickeration??
Steele, lets make the adjustments and let CJ and all the seniors get in the game and go crazy...
Friday, 20 November 2009
Clemson very well may have clinched the division before taking the field, I think UNC stands a pretty good chance of beating BC. I don't suspect this will affect Clemson too much, what with Senior Day and Motivator-in-chief Swinney firing up the team before the game. Virginia features an above average defense, but they also feature quite likely the league's worst offense. In a general sense, this reminds me of the Boston College game: tough defense, offense is a work-in-progress, largely conservative head coaching philosophy, and big players who play physically. Two key differences, though: BC sports a defense that matches anyone in the nation while Virginia's is merely excellent in the context of the league and Virginia's offense has played the same way BC played against us in every game of the season.
The only way I see us losing this Saturday is if the following three unlikelihoods were to inexplicably collide: 1) our offense reverts to pre-Maryland form in the face of a big, physical defense, 2) Richard Jackson still can't kick a thirty-five yard field goal, and 3) our defense puts up an utterly average effort similar to last Saturday. I can see one or two of the above possible happening, but not all three. I'm cautiously optimistic we'll be celebrating the first ACC division title in Clemson history come Saturday evening. (Just to keep things in perspective, though, the last time I was this confident was before the Maryland game.)
I personally want BC just to lose. Yeah, all that stuff about earning it is great, and the players should have that mentality but as a fan still recovering from ghosts of Bowden past--I am more than willing to go to the ACC Champs bc someone other than us (BC no less), lost. But I'm afraid we come out with almost too much intensity again and make some defensive mistakes. We really need to get this kicking thing squared away before USuck and GT. Virginia has some really good linebacker play so they will challenge KP with a new 3-4 look. Hopefully we can not turn the ball over.
Also I will be watching to see how the O line responds with Austin having a bad ankle. This is essentially the line we will have next year so hopefully Cloy can fill that void. Speaking of OLineman--we lost former 4 star recruit Kenneth Page who never really asserted himself after coming to Clemson with a bad shoulder and JK Jay is still dealing with an ailing back. I heard he needs another surgery which is never good. He really is a great person though so if you get a chance drop him a line of encouragement on his facebook or something. We need him to shore up Tackle depth and push the starters. Again, thank you David Smith for panning out.
Oh yeah, so Virginia...Tigers roll...
P.S. I told you North Carolina was overrated in bball. Too many white guys on the team...haha. Shaky guard play, no three point shooting. Relying on Ginyard's offensive production?? Ed Davis looking weak in the post...yep I told you so...Clemson has its best chance to take the ACC, umm...ever??
Thursday, 19 November 2009
CJ Spiller's Clemson home career closes out this weekend. I've been reflecting on the source of the adoration the fanbase has showered on Spiller this season. While this can be attributed to the records he breaks on a weekly basis and his increased willingness to pick his way through a pile of defenders, I'd draw attention to some less-evident reasons.
While I wouldn't label Spiller the first truly "transmedia" Clemson recruit (that distinction probably belongs to Jamie Harper), Spiller has always had a flair for the dramatic when interacting with the media. I think back to his signing day, when he had an entire room full of reporters thinking he was going to announce Florida State or Florida, only to stun everyone by naming Clemson. That got him on every sports news page in the states of Florida and South Carolina. Then there were the alleged overtures from Florida coach Urban Meyer. In those offseasons of turmoil, Spiller appeared to spurn the Gators (and a national title appearance) out of what could only have been loyalty to coaches and teammates. Of course, all of this was topped by last season's drama, when Spiller announced to a stunned (but this time joyous) room that he was returning to Clemson for his senior season. This season has seen him improbably live up to the expectations of a Heisman candidacy, when no one really gave him much of a chance to begin with and then openly laughed about it after the team started 2-3. Oh, and in true hero fashion, week in and week out he fights through a painful toe injury acquired in week one of the season.
The last paragraph reads like the outline of a Clemson legend. It will be no doubt be filled in with various on-field exploits (slightly embellished, naturally), but its no wonder we hero-worship the guy. And then add this: Spiller is just likable. He's cultivated this great image as a well-spoken kid who gives a confident but not brash or anxious interview. And that's just the thing, whether its intentionally "cultivated" or not, he comes across as completely natural, even authentic. If you were tasked with designing a star football player's personality with the instructions to make him engaging while not distracting, I can't imagine anything coming out better than CJ Spiller. We're lucky to have him; whether or not he gets the invite to New York, enjoy his last four(!) games in a Clemson uniform.
Wednesday, 18 November 2009
And to whoever did the whole orange tiger paws all over William Brice Penitentiary, Bravo!! It wasnt looking all too bleak with the whole thug black and blood deal they are nurturing. Add some color to your life!! Enjoy!!
Monday, 16 November 2009
So what must Clemson do to improve enough to win the ACC--I think the Liberty game will be a good gauge for how far along we are, how far we need to go. This team will be a work in progress all year, so we need to treat it as such--there will be some growing pains. The key is how we improve in these areas
1. Ball Handling/Turnovers--This is really about whether or not Stitt progressed enough this off season to be the explosive player we need him to be. We need him to be able to drive the lane consistently and dish. I thought he was getting there last year till he hurt his ankle and that slowed him a bit all year. Look for Andre Young to step up if Stitt stalls.
2. 3pt Shooting/Identity--We need to have Smith and Johnson or even Potter be able to consistently knock down threes this year. But I am concerned with the identity of this team. Even without TO we could rely too much on the three because we still cant pass the ball into the post enough. Booker has always been stalled by inept guards unable to pass him the ball. That has got to change, and thats a tough thing for Freshman to do.
3. Rebounding--When Booker is motivated he is the best rebounder in the ACC but he will need some help. Grant needs to elevate his game to be a stronger rebounder insider. Sykes ended up doing a good job for us as well as Rivers but we need some of the freshmen to step in. Booker Jr. and Jennings will be called upon. I am really disappointed that Bobo Baciu has not progressed much, thought he would be that tenth guy to come in and provide some rebounding and defense but it hasnt materialized yet. With the press and all the 3's we just need to stay even with teams but we cant play soft and have a weak mentality that I am afraid is the result of tentative freshman play.
- Good to see Noel Johnson go 4/8 from behind the arc. Not predictive of future performance, of course, except in the sense that if he's not knocking them down now he's probably not going to knock them down later.
- Tanner Smith wasn't looking for the three, which is a little disappointing. I'm hoping the coaches really try to get him to look for his shot in the early season here so he'll be at least somewhat useful off the bench.
- I was mildly surprised to see Jerai Grant get the start, but he ended up with less minutes than two of the freshman, Johnson and Jennings. He also did little to impress. An early nod to seniority?
- Lots of people played lots of minutes. Baciu, however, played only six minutes. Does this spell the end of the Baciu experiment? Its one game, but if he's not getting time now...
- Stitt and Young basically split time at the point 22 minutes vs. 20 minutes. The battle is on! (both had a single turnover credited to them)
- The freshmen trio of Jennings, Johnson, and Hill combined for a 6:3 assist:turnover ratio. Notched 7 steals between them. Not too shabby.
- The one black eye on the night? 40.0% from two-point land. The good news is effective FG% (which gives extra weight to made 3-point shots) was up at 52.1%.
You might remember Liberty as the team that required a Herculean effort from K.C. Rivers to defeat last season at Littlejohn. At the time they were led by the dynamic Seth Curry (of Curry father and sons fame) and I thought they might be poised for a run in the Big South Conference. Not so, as they ended up with a spectacularly mediocre season, finishing 7-7 in conference play. A couple of their big wins early on didn't look so good once January rolled around (Virginia, George Mason). They managed to give George Mason a run again in this season's opener, but came up short 76-72. This means they are more talented than Presbyterian, but luckily for Clemson they no longer have the advantage of the services of Seth Curry. Unfortunately for Clemson, he'll be shooting the ball for Duke beginning next season. Liberty also lost senior Anthony Smith last year, look for senior Kyle Ohman to lead the charge for the flames from behind the arc Tuesday morning. Which brings me to another point: what good is national exposure if no one is at home to watch? Guess I shouldn't complain, just getting included in the ESPN Tipoff whatever thing is another notch on the program's belt. GO TIGERS!!
Saturday, 14 November 2009
Kyle Parker took another incremental step in the right direction today. Looked pretty tall in the pocket. Earlier in the year I rapped the coaching staff for not letting him be more mobile, not letting him make plays with his feet if a play looked like it had broken down. Now I think we're seeing what the coaching staff envisioned, in order to maximize Parker's main strength (his live arm) he needs to develop into more of a pure pocket passer who limits his runs to designated keeps. Its been a learning process, at times a painful one, but it might be coming together faster than if the coaches had just let Parker tuck the ball and run every time his first option was covered. Let's see how he handles the stiffer defenses coming in the next two weeks.
DrB hit it on the head a few days ago, one of the reasons for the offensive improvement is instead of throwing out a fresh set of faces every drive to see what sticks, we're now playing the same guys week in and week out. I think things like QB-WR "chemistry" are overrated a bit, but I have little reason to doubt the most talented and reliable guys are seeing the overwhelming majority of both snaps and ball touches. Ford and Dye (and to a lesser extent, Ashe) at WR, Palmer and Allen at TE, and of course the RBs.
Not sure if Chancellor and Butler still weren't 100%, but it seemed like the 2nd string CBs were seeing a lot of time. As a possible result, coverage wasn't exactly an abject disaster but definitely a large step down from previous weeks. Two counter-points: 1) after a rough first quarter, Wilson was on the rest of the game and 2) Jarvis Williams had a couple of highlight-reel catches (the rest of the recievers could have really helped his final statline if they had held onto the ball a few more times). Since a lot of defense in the secondary is reflexive, an accurate QB and disciplined, talented receiver are going to connect despite the best defensive efforts. Oh, and third point: ridiculous penalties.
Brandon Maye needs to rein himself in a bit, he's starting to make plays that stand out, but not in the good kind of way.
Not much else to say from my vantage point, except that we might want to consider recruiting a new kicker to replace Jackson after next year. 3/6 (?) on PAT attempts is not good for a kicker, small sample size notwithstanding. Seriously, I don't care if you've been sitting on the bench for 10 games, a random soccer player kicking for the local high school football team can manage 3/6.
Waiting for Thomas Austin news...
All in all, a solid game for the offense and an utterly average game from the defense when we've come to expect more. I think the big difference between this and the FSU game was we weren't constantly trying to give the game away for the first 2 and 1/2 quarters. One game, step, whatever you want to call it, away. Virginia brings a stronger defense than we've been playing recently. This should give us an idea of how well our offense has really come along...but our real defense needs to show up and provide support next week.
Friday, 13 November 2009
I kind of ended up rambled on about this matchup in yesterday's post. It pretty much sums up this way: our excellent defense should blunt their strength in offense and our shaky offense should have no problems scoring against a defense that's well below league-average. On top of that, State has been one of the worst teams in the country at starting field position; if the coaching staff hasn't had nightmares all week about Spiller and Ford in the Clemson return game, well...
So why do I feel the same as Admiral Ackbar? Why do I stubbornly rate this game as only a "lean Clemson"? It's a road game, sure, and while Raleigh isn't the friendliest place to play in the ACC it's certainly not Blacksburg or Atlanta or Tallahassee. I can't deny my analysis of any NC State game is, and always will be, colored by those three consecutive inexplicable losses to NC State from 1986-1988. But still, it doesn't add up. NC State is in the throes of a season lost to injury and unreasonable expectation. Will they score on us? Sure. They've still got a talented offense. Is that any excuse for not outscoring them? No way.
Am I basing my fears on a gut feeling? I guess that's the only explanation I can scrape together now--I think Clemson's in for a tight slog on Saturday.
I thought, along with everybody else, that NC State would be legit this year. Russell Wilson is our main concern. If he is having an off day we win going away, but if he gives us his best--mixing in his mobility and hurting us with his legs it will be another close game.
What we forget is that Ponder was limited running the ball last week. When he did he made the Tigers pay but Jimbo wasnt going to do that to his QB, although DeAndre ended it for him anyway. NC State loves to go to the TE down the seam of the defense, especially against Cover 2 sets. I think this could be problematic, coupled with struggling to stop the run and a bigger back.
On offense we need to "keep on, keepin on..."(more pure gold Daboisms--we need to start a collection of these things, to be preserved for future generations). I'd like to take the opportunity to say that the season has turned on the ability of Billy Napier to do his job better. After Maryland, he and Dabo got on the same page and my feeling is Billy took some more ownership with the bye week. We saw more I-formation, more TE involvement, more of a screen game. It helped that KP started executing and WR's started catching the ball...
State's defensive stats have been helped by playing two Div II powderpuffs but I think the game on offense turns on our ability to run the ball. If we have to rely on the passing game and come up with key third down conversions in the air like in the FSU game, its always less of a sure thing. I want to see Spiller rack up some rushing yards to help buoy the all-purpose and the Heisman resume. Look for special teams to help slightly break open a game that feels to close for comfort all the way to the end. Also lets hope we can kick some FG's, let alone extra points...
Clemson 31 State 21
Lets go beat up on some Wolfies!! Go Tigers!!
Thursday, 12 November 2009
Clemson's schedule eases up the last three weeks, playing three sub-forty teams including next week at #55 NC State. A lot of parallels will be drawn in general terms to the on-field results of NC State and FSU this season, both feature bad defenses and good offenses. Looking at it a little closer, though, NC State features the 11th ranked offense in the country, but its still a relatively large step down from the FSU offense. Meanwhile, they've struggled with the #68 defense, but this is instead a relatively large step up from the FSU defense. These two observations might indicate that NC State will give Clemson the same amount of trouble as FSU, but this overlooks field position advantage. Clemson ranks #12 on the legs of Spiller and Ford, while NC State is an abysmal #115 (out of 120). If Clemson pulls away early, it could very well be on the strength of special teams.
Here's how I see the last two ACC games:
Clemson is still projected to finish 5-3 or 6-2; but we increase our odds slightly over BC because we have two games remaining instead of three (easier to go 2-0 than 3-0). If we win this week though, it just about sinks BC who still has what looks like an increasingly tough UNC game left on their schedule.
Wednesday, 11 November 2009
I have to believe that right now the point position is Stitt's to lose. But hints from the coaching staff over the offseason and lack of development in key areas last season have seemingly made his grasp on the position rather tenuous. It didn't help that he was outshined by backup Andre Young over limited stretches last season. Let's just say that Stitt not only has to come out firing on all cylinders, but he has to show consistency every night he takes the floor.
The biggest concern surrounding Stitt is turnovers. While last season's 25.5 turnover rate (the number of turnovers on personal possessions) is a step down from 2008's 28.4 rate, it still ranks among the highest at the point across the ACC. To put it in perspective, other players in the ACC with less-than-stellar reputations for holding onto the ball like Greivis Vasquez and Greg Paulus posted rates of 16.7 and 18.0, respectively. For every 40 personal possessions, Stitt is turning the ball over 10 times while Vasquez and Paulus are looking at 6-7. May not seem like much, but that's likely going to have an impact on a particular game and certainly over the course of a season. Stitt has to bring that number down, or the 16.9 rate Young posted last season is going to get a long look.
Other offensive areas of Stitt's game have rated around average in both of his seasons. Nothing outstanding, but nothing else that really drags him down, with the glaring exception of his below-average 27% shooting from 3-point land. Also, his FT% has inexplicably trended down last season--too much of a drop to simply pass off as statistical noise. I'll be watching to see where his FT rate stabilizes early on. If we see an improvement (or at least a return to his freshman campaign), it could bode well for his 3-point FG%; Ken Pomeroy previously found an association between improved FT shooting and 3-point FG% (insider subscription required).
While having a point guard that is around or close to league average is generally nothing to get particularly upset at, Oliver Purnell has the responsibility to weigh upgrade options at every position. Andre Young lacks Stitt's height and ability to gash to the hoop, but he could represent a moderate to substantial upgrade in every other facet of the game. I would list this as the backstory to watch as the pre-ACC season unfolds.
Monday, 9 November 2009
- I'm glad I grew up a Clemson fan and not a Cock fan. Its the one thing that keeps me going.
- When Death Valley is rocking there is no other place like it on this earth--we should do that more often, the whole big night game on ESPN thing is fun.
- We still got some work to do...
- Parker is showing that improvement, partly due to experience and partly due to better play calling. He makes some throws that are unbelievable--quick bullets on the run, some good long balls, etc. Couple of things Kyle--not all throws are fastballs, sometimes you can dump it off to your fullback or safety valve at medium speed. Also we got to get you seeing the wide open underneath routes more often. 10-15 yrds can be as good as trying to thread the needle for 25-30.
- I dont know if I call that timeout early in the third quarter on a third and inches for the Noles'. Something was wrong with the defensive personnel but we could have really needed those things if the game got tighter.
- Kicking...Jackson does some serious regression to the mean tonight. Help Richard find his happy place and quick. I was seriously seeing Jad Dean out there again when he lost it his senior year. I kept thinking, this is just like Clemson to really win the game but then blow it like this on extra points (BC in triple overtime, lost on the Dean missed extra point--05??06?? I'm still trying to forget...)
- Kick coverage is becoming a little suspect, lets tighten that up...
- Triple J, Jarvis Jenkins--I remember Brenston Buckner getting kicked out of the Citrus Bowl?? For punching a guy when he thought he was covered up by the pile. No more slapping or punching--especially in plain view...
5. Another freshman that is living up to his billing is Dwayne Allen. He has dropped a couple balls here and there but seeing him take it to the house on Sat was a thing of beauty. I can live with three more years of that. Lincecum should have never left. We need some TE depth for next year so recruits please take notice.
6. DeAndre McDaniel should come back next year. If the season continues to progress without a Bowden hiccup then we should end up in the top 20 easy and with some buzz we could be in the top 15. Thats something to stick around for...Clemson stuck with DeAndre when he needed us, so I think he should stick with us and graduate. Its absolutely criminal that he is not on the Thorpe semifinal list. Mays and Berry would go ahead of him--the smart thing to do is to position himself for next year.
Sunday, 8 November 2009
First off, the entire game I was alternating between two discrete states of mind--one, I thought we were clearly the superior team through all four quarters and kept expecting us to pull away at the start of every drive. Two, I was thinking this was Bowden-redux and we were going to lose a game we should have sealed up at the beginning of the second half as we tried and tried to give the game away. But then, in the fourth quarter, after we got the Hall pick/ridiculous break on the Hall fumble followed by the TD that put us up 27-21, I was suddenly locked into mind state #1. We started our next drive on our own 27 after an FSU punt. In the Spence/Bowden days (mindset #2, remember), a drive with about 7:00 minutes to go in the game while holding a 6 point lead in a big game meant we would call the most conservative plays possible. Three runs up the middle to take time off the clock before punting it back to other team. This had two side-effects: 1) ticking off the entire educated fanbase and 2) inoculating a generation of fans against the possibility of the run-away victory. Today we finally got that run-away victory in a big game, in large part because we took the same approach as we had the entire game on offense, driving 73 yards on 6 plays in 3:39 seconds for the touchdown to seal it.
Playcalling was generally fine. Against a team that gives up big plays, we looked for the big plays. I'm mildly surprised it took us 2 quarters to find Spiller on a wheel route for a touchdown, but hey, can't complain--nothing wrong with keeping something like that in your back pocket for when you might need it. Made some stupid mistakes (penalties inside the 5-inch line, the Parker fumble) early after we got it in close which kept us from piling up the first half points. I actually think this was a better game for Parker than the Miami game. Yes, he inexplicably threw behind a couple of guys, and there was the terrible, terrible interception when the route was just jumped and the insane fumble on the five-yard line. But for the most part, probably becuase he had loads of time from FSU's non-existent pass-rush, he looked comfortable, had good pocket presence, and even appeared to at least try and make reads of the defense and cycle through his receivers. He still made some bad decisions early on by forcing it into coverege deep when he had guys open underneath, but the lesson from today is that maybe Parker can develop into something--at least when he has time in the pocket.
O-line played very well, but it was against one of the worst defenses in the country, much less the league. Viewed in that light, the run-blocking was hit or miss early on, which is a little discouraging. But it was nice to see the line get some push in the red zone a couple of times and spring Spiller and Ellington with some nice holes.
Receivers are finally starting to catch the ball, the only drop I remember was Ford, and he's been the least of Clemson's problems to this point. I still don't see great route-running, and a team that plays tighter coverage is still going to knock the ball out but hey, small steps I guess. Some great individual efforts on throws underneath that got key first downs. Part of that can be attributed to FSU's horrible tackling, but at least we have the athleticism at WR to make plays occasionally.
Hats off to the secondary. If you would have told me that we would be without Butler and Chancellor for a significant part of the second half, I'd have thrown up my hands and waited for you to tell me how bad the final score was. The coaches made some fine adjustments: it looked like our CBs were instructed to back off a little, with instructions to keep the play in front of you but allow no yards after catch. McDaniel & co. delivered--I don't remember any receivers for FSU picking up yards after the catch after the first half. This extended drives and allowed the FSU to beat themselves, either through Ponder's baffling interceptions or through poor playcalling--the reverse that went for -14 yards. (Granted, if they don't muff the pitch there it might score a touchdown but it was still a risky call...)
Tackling watch: thought it was a pretty good effort, couple of times we looked bad going for the strip but still managed to limit the damage in those cases. Definitely a concerted upgrade over the Miami game despite facing the same caliber of talent.
Coverage has slackened a bit since the first few weeks, FSU's first punt return was ugly. Not sure what's going on here--they have sent more pressure recently but I don't think that was the case this time...have to check the tape on that one. Other than that, the announcers were talking ad nauseum about what we've been saying for the whole season--with a tandem like Ford and Spiller back to receive kicks, they don't have to kick it to you for good results. There just aren't that many punters at this level capable of hitting the coffin corners. Couple that with the rise in the rugby-style punt and you have a terrifying combination for Clemson opponents.
We finally managed to down a punt inside the five despite multiple opportunities to this point, but with nobody watching the ball come down, we still barely managed to run it down from behind. Really, it should have been fair-caught by the FSU return man, no way that ball was first bouncing inside the ten.
Finally, the kicking game. Richard Jackson is going to miss kicks. I think the early season streak might have raised unreasonable expectations for him, I'm certainly guilty of hyping him up. I'd still say the combination of his leg strength and accuracy makes hime one of the best kickers Clemson has seen in a while, but he's going to have games like this. I didn't like the call to replace him with Benton for the one PAT attempt. This isn't the pros, where one missed PAT is grounds for dismissal--he's got to be allowed to work through his misses. Luckily, it didn't come back to bite us and hopefully we look back on this as a weird aberration that mirrors that bizarre FSU game from 2006. At least this time it was the kicker and not a Bowden-era problem with the kicks being blocked, which is the only thing more infuriating.
Major Coaching Decisions
Outside of the Benton PAT kick, fantastic job. Execution cures a lot of play-calling problems, and this is what has improved the most in my mind. We still get individuals making stupid mistakes, which reflects indirectly on the coaching staff, but with the exception of run-blocking and WR route-taking, most of the systematic problems have been lessened. Great news, obviously. Perhaps even better is this suggests that we have a coaching staff capable of objectively reviewing the team and implementing in-season coaching adjustments.
I'll wrap this up by saying NC State is a classic trap game, particularly if we don't have Butler and/or Chancellor back. Motivator-in-chief Swinney need to be at the top of his game this week...
Friday, 6 November 2009
As many have pointed out, the outcome of this game will hinge on whether Clemson's pass defense can slow FSU's pass attack. FSU has the same caliber of players in key skill positions as Miami and they will find the endzone, it's just a matter of limiting the total number of times. I'll be watching to see if Clemson's second level can improve their routes to the ball-carrier and to wrap-up when tackling. Keep in mind, though, this is a group of talented kids who are good at making people miss. Clemson needs to minimize the big plays, not completely eliminate them.
I would posit that Clemson's success will also rest on how disciplined the FSU defense plays. FSU's defense has talented individuals, but in the NC State game last Saturday (emblematic of most of the season for FSU) they constantly beat themselves with senseless penalties, poor tackling, and by pursuing the big play. All of these conspired time and again to turn small gains into huge plays. If Mickey Andrews rallies the troops in the wake of his retirement announcement, Clemson's offense could be in for a rougher-than-expected time. With that caveat aside, however, as I mentioned yesterday FSU is ranked #98 in defense efficiency by FEI--far and away the worst in the ACC (Duke clocks in next at #74). Normally I would be hopeful that we could use this to sustain long and productive drives, but since FSU's defense has the tendency to give up yardage in chunks I'll instead look for Clemson to keep using the big play to propel them to the scoreboard...
One thing to watch for this weekend: if you've seen FSU this season, you know they have a pretty good kicking game. FPA, or field position average, is a pretty good proxy for measuring special teams strength. Three teams in the ACC are heads and shoulders above the rest of the league: Clemson (10th in the country), Virginia Tech (13th), and FSU (16th). One thing Clemson probably won't be able to do is rely on the kicking/return game to get them superior field position; expect this to be about even.
Clemson is in the middle of a three game ACC stretch playing teams with similar general profiles--good to great offenses with average to below-average defenses (although you can argue Miami's defense is underrated). I just mention this to stress that just as Miami was the mild favorite against Clemson two Saturdays ago and wound up on the short end of a close loss, Clemson's slight edge against FSU going into the weekend could just as easily disappear on the strength of a last-second Christian Ponder touchdown toss.
I remember at the beginning of the season how FSU had lost all of its receivers and how this was going to hurt them on offense. Is Ponder just that good? Is Jimbo that good an OC? Man, whipping a bunch of no name WR's into shape is a skill I wish we would acquire and quickly. I cant shake the same feeling I had last year when we played FSU. Ponder is going to run all over us, we will put up a good fight but come up short. I still think we had superior talent to them last year but we lost. This year they have virtually the same offense but their secondary has stunk. They dont have the DE's like last year and this game is at home. Oh and we are slowly learning how to use Spiller (better late than never).
I like that the game is at home, and the place will be rocking. We need to neutralize some of Ponders audibles at the line. Man I hate that guy. We are at home so I say we win 34-30. But its all because of this...
Yes its the Clemson Surge but I thought we needed as 'Orange Surge' for the All In, All Orange game today!! And yes, I think the Clemson Surge, drawing upon a failed caffeinated beverage is absolutely pure genius...
Wednesday, 4 November 2009
Here's the updated ACC outlook for the Tigers. Virginia improves following their loss at home against Duke. But I saw enough from both teams in the FSU-NC state game to leave them untouched:
With Virginia moving into "Lock", the projected wins are probably closer to 2.5-3 at this point. Even so, if we manage a victory against FSU on Saturday I still won't be breathing easy until the Tigers beat the Wolfpack in Raleigh.
Tuesday, 3 November 2009
Trevor Booker is the single irreplaceable piece of the 2009 Clemson basketball team. If Booker goes down for any substantial amount of time, the season is over. (That's why the fractured foot in the offseason was so disconcerting.) On a team full of unproven talent and solid contributors, Booker stands as a legitimate ACC player-of-the-year threat.
It hasn't always been that way. Booker started out his freshman year as a guy showing flashes of talent early in the season only to be shown up as slow and ill-conditioned during ACC competition. Still, the promise of a talented four-year starter with upside was more than enough to excite a still-depressed Clemson base. His sophomore season saw incremental improvement in just about every aspect of his game, and he started holding his own a majority of the time in ACC play. But he still struggled finishing plays around the rim and always seemed to disappear into a fog of foul trouble when the big games rolled around. But in his junior season we saw the jump from team star to league star. His offensive game took a leap, showing fluidity in the post with the occasional rim-rattling finish. He raised his free throw percentage to 70.7%. (Has Clemson had a big man put up those numbers like that from the line in the last 30 years?) He added the three-point shot to his arsenal, nailing 9-22 for the season. But if that wasn't enough, he also burnished his already stellar defensive reputation by learning how to stay out of foul trouble while putting up similar block and steal numbers. And even if K.C. Rivers was the team captain in name, Booker was the rock that held the coaches line on defense during the turbulence of 2009.
Not to say Booker is a perfect player. He still got lost against good defensive height last season: FSU, GT, and WF were foils for Booker time and time again. But let's also remember that no player on the team was more victimized by the roster flaws that doomed Clemson last season. When the perimeter players couldn't see into the post, Booker couldn't get the ball. Since he was the only legitimate inside offensive threat and the only guy posting up inside for Clemson, he was the focal point of every ACC defense. Jennings should give Booker some relief, and maybe Grant or Potter add another dimension to their games. And then there's Devin.
Clemson fans love Booker, but why? I would posit that this player, while undeniably born with a fair share of talent, hasn't stood by content to be a good player on an average team. He has worked and worked at development each year, helping raise the level of the entire team. Let's see the improvement one last offseason of training brings. Let's see what one more offseason has done for Booker's place in the long-broken and nearly forgotten chain of Clemson big man greats.
Monday, 2 November 2009
- Always good to dominate the teams you are supposed to dominate.
- Ran some nice-looking plays even if the team looked shaky on a couple of drives.
- Good to see the young kids get some reps.
- Outstanding individual performance out of [just about any player you can name].
- Great efforts from [defense/offense/special teams].
- Coaches did a good job managing the game.
The problem with games against division II teams is they aren't indicative of future performance. Unfortunately, the only thing from Saturday that will have an impact on the team is Bowers' injury. I wouldn't be surprised if he's out at least 2-3 weeks from recent reports. The good news: DE is about the deepest and most talented spot on the roster, and while there's really no replacing Bowers, the dropoff in talent won't be enough by itself to affect any single game outcome. That being said, here's hoping he's 100% in time for the USuCk game.
The only other thing I'd comment on: put me in the camp that was glad to see Spiller get such limited action, Heisman hopes notwithstanding. As long as Spiller was fine with the decision, there's nothing but wisdom behind having a guy who means so much to a team take it easy in a next-to-meaningless game. Now let's see him play every down against FSU.
Sunday, 1 November 2009
This was my pumpkin this year. Anybody else do a Clemson related jack-o-lantern?? Let us know and we'll post it. Happy Halloween everybody, stay safe!!
Oh and DQ Bowers may be out for the FSU game, its more severe than initially thought--an MCL strain too, dag gum, knew that would happenen...